The Defense Next Year
I think its a fairly accepted belief around this here board that, while being 4-0 is great, the team really expects to be competing for BCS/Big 10 Titles starting as early as next year, and definitely by 2011.
I think its safe to assume the offense won't miss a beat next year, even with the graduation of Minor and Brown, but I am curious to hear what everyone thinks about the Defense.
Arguably, two out of our best three players graduate (Graham, Stevie Brown), and there really is no replacement for Graham (Heninger????) Donovan Warren, probably the second best player on the D, might even leave early too.
We have young talent (JT Turner, Vlad, Roh, Big Will) but thats the thing, they're young. Mike Martin should be a beast, and Ezeh could, perhaps, be functional to good. There would also be, barring unforeseen circumstances, GERG, which would add stability. However, there doesn't seem to that 5-star game changer in the fold in recruiting (yet), and like I've mentioned, the talent coming back is young.
So my long-winded question is, what do you all think about our defense for next year? Could we be equally as bad?
NOTE: before the "why are you worrying about next year when we're doing well this year" post comes along, this is a purely speculative, topic discussion. Something to discuss other than the best Michigan Bar in Cheyenne, Wyoming.
September 29th, 2009 at 10:40 PM ^
While Michigan graduates two of its best players, those are the only two key contributors that we graduate. Assuming Warren stays, we will have senior starters at two linebacker positions, one cornerback, and free safety, plus second-year starters at almost every other position. We will also be in the second year of the same defensive coordinator, so there should be more stability.
I think Michigan's defense could be pretty good next season, and I actually still don't think it's that bad this season. It's average now, it should be better next year, and hopefully it will be great in 2011
September 29th, 2009 at 11:36 PM ^
"Its average now."
By average, do you mean an average MAC def? INDIANA!! racked up a tonne of yards and could move the ball at will! Eastern could move the ball far to easily. How you think this is average is beyond me.
September 30th, 2009 at 12:09 AM ^
Because we have only seen this team play four games and there has been wild variation between its play from half-to-half, let alone game-to-game. Western was a defensive game of two halves. Notre Dame was mostly a defensive game of two halves. Eastern was certainly a defensive game of two halves.
Indiana out-executed Michigan, plain and simple. They were a well prepared team, and they ran quite a few plays that had our defense confused. Two of these plays they scored touchdowns on. Are these breakdowns concerning? Yes, but they are also correctable.
Our defense is full of raw talent. It is going to play inconsistently because of youth. It will, however, become better (and hopefully more consistent) as the season goes on. JT Floyd is an example of this improvement. Hopefully Mouton, who I thought played better against Indiana, is an example of this improvement. One of these games Brandon Graham is going to go off, and hopefully he will help to bring some much-needed pass rush, which in turn will help our secondary.
So, yeah, our defense is young and inconsistent. Some times it's good, some times it's bad. In total, it is average
September 30th, 2009 at 6:19 AM ^
The score was 38-34. ND had 490 yds of offense and we had 430 yds of offense.
September 30th, 2009 at 8:13 AM ^
I think his point was it was much different half to half in terms of defense. UM shut the door entirely on ND in the third quarter and played alright in the 4th as well. The first half was not good. I think that is what was meant by a game of two halves. I could be wrong though, that's just what I got from it.
September 30th, 2009 at 12:43 PM ^
Thank you Blue in Yarmouth, that's exactly what I meant. Our defense has played well at times, usually in the second half. It's not a good defense, but I still don't think it's as bad as some people are saying it is. This is a young defense that has only played four games. Give it time
October 1st, 2009 at 3:15 AM ^
First, that is not what he said. Second, ND scored in three of four quarters and did so heavily in Q2 and Q4. The best you can say is we shut them down in one quarter, Q3. Shutting a team out in one out of four quarters does not qualify as a defensive battle when both teams had over 300 yards and scored over 30 points.
September 29th, 2009 at 10:40 PM ^
Tate will be ready to play DE next year. After all, the kid needs another challenge so he doesn't get bored leading the team on fourth quarter comebacks as QB every week.
September 29th, 2009 at 10:42 PM ^
Here's to hoping there are huge positive surprises, but unless we have an unprecedented number of underclassmen step up next year, we'll have to drop 40 on most opponents to win.
Also, are you from Yankton?
September 29th, 2009 at 10:44 PM ^
Have you been attacked by any bears recently?
September 29th, 2009 at 11:13 PM ^
The answer is no, knock on wood. I did end up buying BBs though. That'll show 'em.
September 30th, 2009 at 12:02 AM ^
I saw “Wedding Crashers” accidentally. I bought a ticket for “Grizzly Man” and went into the wrong theater. After an hour, I figured I was in the wrong theater, but I kept waiting. Cause that’s the thing about bear attacks…they come when you least expect it.
September 29th, 2009 at 10:47 PM ^
I think RVB will move outside next year with Graham's departure, and that will bring Big Will into the interior rotation. We should have a decent secondary next year, possibly downright strong if Warren stays. We are also in the hunt for many highly touted CBs and Ss still, although we are a bit short when it comes to LB interest. The interest from the bigger impact players could come back even for this year if we can pull off a 9+ win regular season and have a respectable bowl showing. Overall, I think physically and talent wise we will be ok. The big issue now is learning the system, which with defense can be much harder than offense in some respects. Its much harder to react than to act. If we even have a top half of the Big Ten defense next year a conference title is certainly possible and a BCS birth could be in the cards as well. Time will tell.
September 29th, 2009 at 10:57 PM ^
be an absolute beast next year. Big Will will have his technique down by then. The questions will remain at LB and possibly CB. Somehow we have to make it thru the rest of this season without getting torched constantly on the opposite side of DW.
Floyd is probably the future of that position, but he and Cissoko have a great learning curve ahead of them.
Somehow we need Obi and Mouton to have that light come on and starting plugging holes in the middle and making sure tackles.
September 29th, 2009 at 11:03 PM ^
i think alot hinges on warren staying too. if he comes back, i think we could be fine with warren + whoever wins the floyd, cissoko, turner, witty (the coaches were high on him), and maybe even christian battle. the CBs could actually be a strength, that is, if Warren stays. if not, then I think we're in equally as bad of shape, if not worse at that position.
September 30th, 2009 at 12:33 PM ^
and many other eligible Juniors will know that, without a collective bargaining agreement, the 2010 draft may be the last under the current system, which is very lucrative for high draft picks. That factor, combined with injuries to high profile returning seniors Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow, are going to make anybody in DW's position think long and hard.
Personally, I'd love to see him stay, but I'd hate to see an injury which would affect his chance for financial security in the NFL. Memories of Ty Wheatly and Tripp Welborne come to mind.
Personally, I'd love to see him stay, but I'd hate to see an injury which would affect his chance for financial security in the NFL. Memories of Ty Wheatly and Tripp Welborne come to mind.
September 29th, 2009 at 11:00 PM ^
With Roh getting good playing time, Turner likely to compete and could snag the starting role at CB from Cisoko(sp), etc., we are developing our young D. Yes, we will still be young. But, that youth will have some valuable experience. I, personally, think this could be the last "lean" year we endure on D.
September 29th, 2009 at 11:06 PM ^
It looks like Roh will have to bulk up to 260-265 and play at BG's spot(regardless, Roh has to bulk up since he's super skinny). Or Greg Banks will take BG's spot and keep Roh at Quick position.
September 29th, 2009 at 11:08 PM ^
Assuming Warren stays, the defense only loses two scholarship players next year. As good as Graham has been at UM, 9 starters back sounds pretty good to me. We are also operating at (I'm pretty sure on the number) a deficit of 11 scholarships. Another full recruiting class without insane attrition (I think those days are over) can't help but boost the depth/talent on the roster. I look forward to the near future when we aren't starting true freshmen on the d-line and players are given time to develop before they hit the field. This team is still ridiculously young (on both sides of the ball, which makes the offensive output even more remarkable). More experience and a full compliment of 85 scholarship players will make a big difference.
September 29th, 2009 at 11:11 PM ^
I'm not sure what to expect from next year's defense. I was wondering if RVB would switch to Graham's spot, making room for Campbell and Martin at the 2 tackle positions (assuming Campbell's ready by then). If not, maybe Lalota will be ready by then or the coaches might decide to move Roh to DE if he gets bigger. There shouldn't be any excuse for the linebackers to not be solid by next year with two starting seniors and an impressive freshman in Roh. The only question mark is Brown's position (the linebacker/safety hybrid), but I remember hearing that Hawthorne looked really promising when he first came in so hopefully he'll be ready to take over. If Warren stays, the secondary has the potential to be good. The ball will not be thrown in his direction very much, so the key to our secondary is for either Floyd, Cissoko, or Turner to step up. They all have potential, but none of them have done much yet. With two returning safeties, and a more experienced Emilien, I think our safeties should be decent. I think it should definitely be better than this year. Even though we will lose 2 key players, everyone will have had another year in the system and some new stars will emerge.
September 29th, 2009 at 11:16 PM ^
a 5* guy to strengthen up their defense? I don't recall them ever getting one but they rely on guys with experience to pull through. It's easy to say well we just need a 5* guy to sure up a position, but you're not going to get that in most years. Rely on your coaching to develop these kids and don't hang your hat on recruiting rankings.
September 29th, 2009 at 11:41 PM ^
There is even the possibility that Roh has the quick position locked up for four years. I would imagine that when he is better, stronger, faster next year, he is simply more fitting of the quick position. I know he's smaller right now, but if he becomes more of a beast and you have big will and martin, the michigan line just makes the move from being undersized to downright dominating. It might not matter as much if you don't have an elite talent like graham for a few years because of what these three could be.
The other thing I always notice about teams that are building their program up, and this may be more noticeable with programs building from nothing, is that when the few elite talents/big names go away, the team generally gets better. The reasoning is that those teams are recruiting better talent and they are getting better as a whole. Missouri now that their big names at QB, TE, and WR are gone, seems to be a much more solid football team because I feel like they have more talent across the board. Boise might fit the bill too. Ian Johnson was a great story, but through the end of his stay other backs were taking time from him. Texas Tech may be one to watch. I think we will be fine. We brought in great talent this past class that is very young. We are likely going to load up in DBs this year, and add a lot of depth. LB's is a work in progress, but we still have Brandon Smith. The core is getting better, and next year, it's going to be fun, to see these young, talented players (with experience) starting to step up.
Next year could be like a poor man's version of OSU's defensive group this year. Their big names left, and a big group of bigtime, hungry past recruits stepped in, and their D looks good.
September 30th, 2009 at 12:03 AM ^
Don't forget Robinson, Avery, and hopefully some of the mix between Christian, Grimes, Olaniyan, Fortt, Mathis and the certain "sleepers" in the Top 100 that are waiting to see how the season unfolds. The LB position is particularly challenging in this scheme, it seems, so any freshman to have size, speed, strength and understanding year one might require very special recruits. The defense will steadily build up its ranks for healthy competition and rotation. I think Robinson and Avery might (im)press for freshman time, given their Turner-like size. Hopefully they can enroll early (no idea if either of them are considering this).
September 30th, 2009 at 12:22 AM ^
Avery- 5'9"
Turner- 6'2"
Just saying
September 30th, 2009 at 12:21 AM ^
LB Troy Gloster is set to decide soon between WVU and UM. He comes from the high school of Jelani Jenkins. Shows great speed (4.65) and size (6-0 225lbs), flies to the ball, and has great change of direction for a LB. Could be a huge pickup.
September 30th, 2009 at 12:25 AM ^
brown right now is doing great... sadly he will graduate... if on some statistically impossible chance we get anthony barr he could be a great defensive back or linebacker... or marvin robinson hopefully turns out great...
and if we can get the people are considering we'll get the #2 MLB 10 and 11 OLB and some good d backs... hopefully they will commit or somebody like roh becomes great...
September 30th, 2009 at 1:16 AM ^
I don't see next years defense being that good.
This years defense is as bad as last years. The only difference is this years defense has a pretty good offense to help it out.
The offense next year should be good enough to compete for the big ten title, and possibly get to the BCS title game, but the defense won't be championship caliber.
The quality of players, and possibly more important, quantity of quality players on the defensive side of the ball is severely lacking. They've got walk on's seeing significant time at LB and safety.
The dline is undersized and while Barwis is a great S&C coach his philosophy doesn't seem to lend itself to really bulking up players. It seems it's more along the lines of stronger, faster, leaner. Not to say the young guys won't put on some weight simply by adding muscle and possibly filling out their frame some but I don't see 250 lb guys adding 20-30 pounds to their frame over one off-season. You look at Bama, USC, OSU, Florida, etc. their dlines are good size (270-290lbs) but it's guys who are quick and can make plays. You're not seeing to many rolls of fat on them, it's big guys who are chiseled.
The LB's and DB's really need some people, who will be returning next year, to step up over the last 8 games to give me much hope for the defense next year.
I'm of the opinion that it's going to be a couple good defensive recruiting classes before UM has a really solid defense. It's one thing to have good guys starting, it's another thing to have quality backups so when someone gets hurt you don't miss much when the replacement comes in.
September 30th, 2009 at 1:57 AM ^
next year (hopefully) UM will be in year 2 of a new defensive coordinators system (their 3rd in 3 years). I'm guessing they'll be improved just from knowing the system better. It would be wonderfull if we saw as much improvement from the D next year as we have from the Offense this year.
I am worried about the lack of studs on the D though, esp up the middle. Our LB's and Safeties are below average for the Big 10.
Brandon Graham can simply not be replaced and unfortunately he looks like the last in a nice line of stud defensive ends Michigan had in the last dozen years or so. Graham, Woodley, Hobson, all the way back to James Hall. Roh's a good player, but he's not in that mold for sure.
September 30th, 2009 at 6:27 AM ^
Hobson wasn't a DE.
September 30th, 2009 at 11:04 AM ^
Remember we have LaLota redshirting ... he has amazing upside.
September 30th, 2009 at 7:27 AM ^
See 2009 Michigan offense. Continuity, as well as returning 22 of your 24 in the two-deep and introducing several new faces that aren't currently playing much or aren't here (Turner, Emilien, BWC, Talbotts, Avery, M-Rob, Cameron Gordon?) will only make the D better.
Don't forget the team is young - we have over 100 players on the team returning next year. Things will be very good next year.
September 30th, 2009 at 8:13 AM ^
Continuity is nice, but the improvement in the offense isn't so much due to continuity, as it is due to the fact that Tate-Forcier-and-Denard-Robinson-are-infinitely-greater-than-the-Threet/Death-combo. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like we have any incoming players at defense that can lead to the same type of sea change. And in any event, its hard to imagine any one position on defense that could make the same type of difference as a tremendous upgrade at QB does on offense.
I think our defense is going to continue to struggle for at least the couple of years it will take to fill its depleted ranks with new, high quality recruits. No quick fix on the horizon, unfortunately.
September 30th, 2009 at 9:02 AM ^
Big Will Campbell
Justin Turner
Craig Roh in his second year
Marvin Robinson
Courtney Avery
Other big time recruits (Furman? Shaw? Christian?)
if he gets in, Adrian Witty
Plus another 12 months in being drilled, schooled and developed in the Barwis weight training program, as well as in GERG's coaching.
Think to Iowa - the strength of their defense is solid but not out of this world 4-5 star players, combined with good fundamental teaching and continuity in the coaching staffs, so much so that older players can teach the younger ones.
If Warren comes back next year, the starting lineup is this:
Van Bergen Campbell Martin Roh/Herron
(backups: Heininger, Banks, Sagesse, LaLota, Talbott, Paskorz)
Ezeh Mouton Hawthorne/Jones
(backups: Wilkins, B. Smith, Fitzgerald, Demens)
Cissoko/Turner Woolfolk M. Williams Warren
(backups: Witty, Emilien?, Kovacs, Van Slyke, Talbott, Avery, Marvin Robinson, Teric Jones, Floyd, Simmons)
I don't know how, with the combination of continuity, returning players, and strength training, you don't think this defense won't be better than this year.
September 30th, 2009 at 9:43 AM ^
I hope you're right. For sake of clarification, I didn't say the defense wouldn't improve at all, just that I don't expect the same type of drastic improvement we've seen in the offense. Hopefully the players you've identified will help, but I think its somewhat speculative to assume that these untested (and, for many of them, unheralded) incoming players will more than make up for the loss of Brown and Graham. And that's assuming that Warren stays, which is far from a certainty.
Your reference to Iowa kind of proves my point. Iowa has a good defense because they've continually recruited solid, if not spectacular, players in class after class, so they have a deep team with no glaring weaknesses. I'm saying that this is what we need to do, which will take time. Our defense is very shallow now, and one incoming class of solid, but not spectacular, recruits is not enough to fix it.
September 30th, 2009 at 10:01 AM ^
I've been thinking that Obi would be better at quick next year. Then move Roh to DE if he can gain the weight. The problem is obvious with this: who replaces Obi at ILB? Fitz is not looking very good right now, but can he be ready next year? I've also been thinking that Cam would make a good replacement for S. Brown if he accepts the switch to D.