Debunking the Bye Week Myth

And how is MSU coming off a bye week?

I can't confirm this, but someone said recently that MSU under Dantonio is 1-5 after a bye.  A bye has the big advantage of getting a team healthier, but it seems to leave teams rusty as well.

This is some great information. I would have thought it would have been the opposite. Thanks for making me feel better about our chances. 

Thanks for tracking this down. 

Bye weeks occur in the playoffs when you automatically advance to a future round.

Michigan State did not get a bye this past weekend from anything - they're still playing 12 games this year.

Michigan State, in fact, is playing this Saturday after an "OPEN WEEK."

Michigan State's bye-week results in the Mark Dantonio Era:

2010 (11-2):

Bye week Nov 13

Next week: Def. Purdue 35-31

Comment: way-too-close game against terrible team

2009 (6-7):

No bye week

2008 (9-4):

Bye week Nov 15

Next week: Lost to #7 Penn State 18-49

Comment: crushed by a superior team

2007 (7-6):

No bye week

Conclusion: not much to go on here. 

This information still doesn't quell the uneasiness I have about the game.

Going INTO a bye week, the game before always seems to be abnormally brutal. It's the extra week off, and two weeks to stew about a loss, with no game for redemption the next week that seems to happen more often to Michigan (a program that doesn't lose that much to begin with).

Situations are different for any team during any year.  Their circumstances vary.  Remember when Joe Paterno insisted that his teams get bye weeks before playing Michigan and Ohio State as part of the agreement to join the Big Ten?   Before the RichRod years, Paterno was 3-1 against Michigan with a bye week and 0-9 against us without one.  It's not always doom and gloom. 

Like I mentioned in the other thread, MSU has a history of bye weeks before us (93, 98, 03, 04).  We were 3-1 in those games but those 4 MSU teams weren't exactly world beaters going 6-6, 6-6, 8-5 and 5-6.  I think it's safe to assume this years MSU team is better than those other 4 that got the extra week.  So, yes.  It does worry me.  They may have barely escaped an awful Purdue team last year but they're obviously going to be much more fired up to play us than the Boilers.   

I think bye weeks kill momentum. It can be bad, but it can also be a good thing. Basically, if you're coming of a loss, a bye can help you re-focus and regroup. But If you come off a win, it can stunt that momentum. It won't be a huge help, and anything can happen, but this bye week may help kill the momentum MSU had coming off their program win against a .500 team.

Dangit, you just killed our best excuse if Michigan loses...

http://www.freep.com/article/20111010/SPORTS07/110100426/5-things-Michigan-State-must-do-beat-Michigan?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|Sports|p

kind of general, but worth a read

not worth its own post

edit

you can't have one without the other

http://www.freep.com/article/20111010/SPORTS06/110100428/1054/rss19

I did a quick Google search to see what this data would look like for the NFL; while not perfectly analogous, the advantages a team has coming off a bye week should be similar for an NFL team than for a college team.

I found an article from 2009 here.

Most relevant bit: "Since the N.F.L. introduced bye weeks in 1990, the overall record of teams playing after them (309-276-1, 52.7 winning percentage) suggests the advantage is modest at best."

So, with respect to MSU's bye week advantage, perhaps what we are fearing is fear itself.

Good information though, I still think I can make my diary work. This information actually helps.

Another interesting thought is that the extra planning for this game might hurt MSU. They have to practice defending our 2 QB formations, but if they overthink it too much during the game, they are going to freeze when something they didn't practice shows up. I expect us to drop a new formation or two on MSU and some new plays out of the other formations. I could see us using the entire playbook if necessary, then just reload with new formations in the bye week.

I think a more telling stat, though more difficult to research, would be how B1G teams perform against the spread after their bye week. If Michigan were playing Minnesota after their bye week that would have a huge difference on the record versus if we were playing Wisconsin after the bye week. The ATS would normalize it. Jamiemac to the rescue?

This makes me feel better about our loss after our bye-week last year.  But not much better.

It all depends on the quality of the coach. In the NFL for example Bill Belichek and Andy Reid are considered great coaches. They are both undefeated off byes (13-0,11-0). Wade Phillips, Brad Childress, and Norv Turner are bad coaches and are under .500 off byes. 

The same is true for college. Nick Saban, Bob Stoops, and Lloyd Carr were great off byes. It is tougher too see in college because of the talent disparity though.

I think you'd need to study where the bye weeks come in the season. A bye in the first month is used quite differently than an extra week to prepare before a big game later in the season.

Also, I've always thought a lot depends on what happens to the non-bye team the week before. In this case, the NU game seems about perfect as a tune-up. An away game, but not too far away. Weaknesses exposed, but not too much so. I especially like that Gardner got a little bit of meaningful, non-gimmicky work. MSU has an extra week of film to look at, but M has an extra week of game experience. 

And the game M played afterwards. It was terrible and left all of us wondering what the H E double hockey's sticks did they do with the extra week of prep?

Interesting stats.  I always thought that the bye week break was overrated - you are talking about college kids, so they really shouldn't be that tired/rusty after a single week off or on.  I can see the advtange of getting some kids healthy, which definitely is helped by the bye, but probably not enough to alter outcomes consistently.  And as BrickTop pointed out, scheduling after the bye can play a large role - if you run into a good team after a bye, it might not matter if you had seen them off a game or not. 

I love this blog.