Home
i'm an actor, not a reactor

Primary links

  • About
    • $upport (lol)
    • Ethics
    • FAQ
    • Glossary
    • Privacy Policy
  • Contact
  • MGoStore
    • Hail to Old Blue
  • MGoBoard
    • MGoBoard FAQ
    • Michigan bar locator
    • Moderator Action Sticky
  • Useful Stuff
    • Depth Chart By Class
    • Hoops Depth Chart by Class
    • 2017 Recruiting Board
    • Unofficial Two Deep
    • MGoFlickr
    • Diaries, Windows Live Writer, And You
    • User-Curated HOF
    • Where To Eat In Ann Arbor
  • Schedule/Tix
    • Future Schedules (wiki)
    • Ticket spreadsheet
Home Forums MGoBoard

Navigation

  • Forums
  • Recent posts

User login

  • Create new account
  • Request new password

MGoElsewhere

  • @MGoBlog (Brian)
  • @aceanbender
  • @Misopogon (Seth)
  • @Aeschnepp (Adam)
  • @BISB
  • @EUpchurchPhoto
  • @FullOfTwitt (Fuller)
  • Hail to the Victors 2016
  • MGoFacebook
  • MGoPodcast
  • WTKA
  • Instagram

Michigan Blogs

  • Big House Blog
  • Burgeoning Wolverine Star
  • Genuinely Sarcastic
  • Go Blue Michigan Wolverine
  • Holdin' The Rope
  • MVictors
  • Maize 'n' Blue Nation
  • Maize 'n' Brew
  • Maize And Go Blue
  • Michigan Hockey Net
  • MMMGoBlueBBQ
  • The Blog That Yost Built
  • The Hoover Street Rag
  • The M Zone
  • Touch The Banner
  • UMGoBlog
  • UMHoops
  • UMTailgate
  • Wolverine Liberation Army

M On The Net

  • mgovideo
  • MGoBlue.com
  • Mike DeSimone
  • Recruiting Planet
  • The Wolverine
  • Go Blue Wolverine
  • Winged Helmet
  • UMGoBlue.com
  • MaizeRage.org
  • Puckhead
  • The M Den
  • True Blue Fan Forum

Big Ten Blogs

  • Illinois
    • Illinois Loyalty
    • Illinois Baseball Report
  • Indiana
    • Inside The Hall
    • The Crimson Quarry
  • Iowa
    • Black Heart, Gold Pants
    • Fight For Iowa
  • Michigan State
    • The Only Colors
  • Minnesota
    • GopherHole.com
    • The Daily Gopher
  • Nebraska
    • Corn Nation
    • Husker Max
    • Husker Mike's Blasphemy
    • Husker Gameday
  • Northwestern
    • Sippin' On Purple
    • Lake The Posts
  • Notre Dame
    • The House Rock Built
    • One Foot Down
  • Ohio State
    • Eleven Warriors
    • Buckeye Commentary
    • Men of the Scarlet and Gray
    • Our Honor Defend
    • The Buckeye Nine
  • Penn State
    • Slow States
    • Black Shoe Diaries
    • Happy Valley Hardball
    • Penn State Clips
    • Linebacker U
    • Nittany White Out
  • Purdue
    • Boiled Sports
    • Hammer and Rails
  • Wisconsin
    • Bruce Ciskie

Links of Note

  • Baseball
    • College Baseball Today
    • The College Baseball Blog
  • Basketball
    • Ken Pomeroy
    • Hoop Math
    • John Gasaway
    • Luke Winn/Sports Illustrated
  • College Hockey
    • Chris Heisenberg (Class of 2016)
    • College Hockey Stats
    • Michigan College Hockey
    • Hockey's Future
    • Sioux Sports
    • USCHO
  • Football
    • Smart Football
    • Every Day Should Be Saturday
    • Matt Hinton/Grantland
    • Football Study Hall
    • Football Outsiders
    • Harold Stassen
    • NCAA D-I Stats Page
    • The Wizard Of Odds
    • CFB Stats
  • General
    • Sports Central
  • Local Interest
    • The Ann Arbor Chronicle
    • Arborwiki
    • Arbor Update
    • Ann Arbor Observer
    • Teeter Talk
    • Vacuum
  • Teams Of The D
    • Lions
      • Pride of Detroit
    • Pistons
      • Detroit Bad Boys
      • Need4Sheed
    • Tigers
      • Roar Of The Tigers
      • Bless You Boys
      • The Daily Fungo
      • The Detroit Tigers Weblog
    • Red Wings
      • Winging It In Motown
      • On The Wings
    • Michigan Sports Forum

Beveled Guilt

Site Search

Diaries

  • New
  • Popular
  • Hot
  • This Month in MGoBlog History - April 2008: No Spring Game at the Big House! Hockey loses to ND in the Frozen Four!
    Maize.Blue Wagner - 3 days ago
  • Thirteen unlucky minutes (TL;DNR-This is a bit of rant about the refs)
    docwhoblocked - 2 weeks ago
  • Fan Satisfaction Index End of Season Bball Survey
    OneFootIn - 3 weeks ago
  • How likely are we to revert to the mean?
    Bo Glue - 3 weeks ago
  • It's time to avenge Villanova's 1985 NCAA tourney upset over Michigan
    Communist Football - 3 weeks ago
  •  
  • 1 of 2
  • ››
more
  • This Month in MGoBlog History - April 2008: No Spring Game at the Big House! Hockey loses to ND in the Frozen Four!
    Maize.Blue Wagner - 1,141 views
  • This Month in MGoBlog History - April 2008: No Spring Game at the Big House! Hockey loses to ND in the Frozen Four!
    Maize.Blue Wagner - 8 comments

MGoBoard

  • New
  • Recent
  • Hot
  • OT: UCL Semi-final First Legs
    11 replies
  • More evidence of awful culture at MSU, volleyball this time
    43 replies
  • OT: Rick Pitino Rumored to be Candidate for Detroit Mercy Job
    65 replies
  • New Jersey DE Aeneas DiCosmo: Prospect we should all want at UM
    49 replies
  • In-state recruiting rankings update
    115 replies
  • A piece of U-M broadcast history ends tonight.
    26 replies
  • Crootin': Joey Velazquez
    78 replies
  • OT: College Football video games coming back
    90 replies
  • LaMarr Woodley Opening K-8 School in Saginaw
    43 replies
  • SIAP: Jay Feely prom "controversy"
    36 replies
  • Pep and Partridge Pressers
    10 replies
  • Michigan Vs Notre Dame in 131 days
    83 replies
  • WBB Hello: 2020 G/W Makailah Griggs-Zeigler
    12 replies
  • Pep Hamilton on Shea: Can extend the play, make all the throws, plus other QB's
    129 replies
  • OT: Tigers at the 1/8th point
    59 replies
  •  
  • 1 of 6
  • ››
  • OT: Rick Pitino Rumored to be Candidate for Detroit Mercy Job
    65 replies
  • OT: UCL Semi-final First Legs
    11 replies
  • More evidence of awful culture at MSU, volleyball this time
    43 replies
  • Crootin': Joey Velazquez
    78 replies
  • A piece of U-M broadcast history ends tonight.
    26 replies
  • In-state recruiting rankings update
    115 replies
  • WBB Hello: 2020 G/W Makailah Griggs-Zeigler
    12 replies
  • LaMarr Woodley Opening K-8 School in Saginaw
    43 replies
  • Michigan Vs Notre Dame in 131 days
    83 replies
  • OT: College Football video games coming back
    90 replies
  • OT: Tigers at the 1/8th point
    59 replies
  • New Jersey DE Aeneas DiCosmo: Prospect we should all want at UM
    49 replies
  • Elysee Mbem-Bosse apologizes
    67 replies
  • Pep Hamilton on Shea: Can extend the play, make all the throws, plus other QB's
    129 replies
  • Beaubien No-Hitter Clinches Sweep of Maryland, 8-0 (6 inn.)
    14 replies
  •  
  • 1 of 6
  • ››
  • Belleville coach Jermain Crowell mad at UM again
    244 replies
  • Police investigating Elysee Mbem-Bosse for death threat against Harbaugh
    224 replies
  • "Being Not-Rich at UM" Guide
    168 replies
  • Whats the Best Way to Make Flight Arrangements?
    149 replies
  • The Evolution of Commerce - What Industries are Dying, What's Thriving?
    148 replies
  • Pep Hamilton on Shea: Can extend the play, make all the throws, plus other QB's
    129 replies
  • OT - Jalen Hurts possibly looking to transfer
    121 replies
  • Notre Dame Spring Game: analysis from M n B, video
    119 replies
  • In-state recruiting rankings update
    115 replies
  • No additional protest of Shea Patterson appeal by Ole Miss
    113 replies
  • OT: MSU digs hole deeper, Engler adviser: Nassar survivor's claims of payout 'fake news'
    106 replies
  • Nebraska football
    105 replies
  • OT: Map of college stadiums that sell alcohol
    96 replies
  • Karsen Barnhart - did we cool on him?
    92 replies
  • OT: College Football video games coming back
    90 replies
  •  
  • 1 of 6
  • ››

Support MGoBlog: buy stuff at Amazon

Debunking the Bye Week Myth

60 posts / 0 new
Login or register to post comments
Last post
October 10th, 2011 at 11:53 AM
#1
Soulfire21
Soulfire21's picture
Joined: 03/18/2010
MGoPoints: 14528
Debunking the Bye Week Myth

It seems reasonable to bring this up every year, particularly when our next opponent is coming off of a bye week.

Logic Says:
Teams that get a week of rest and an entire extra week to prepare have an advantage over their opponent because their opponent didn't get the extra rest or time to prepare.

Reality Says:
Bye weeks seem to hurt more than they help.  Since 2002 (to 2010*), teams of the six BCS conferences have an overall win pct of 0.480 when coming off of a bye week.  The Big Ten teams in particular struggle when coming off of a bye.  From 2002-2010* Big Ten teams are a combined 17-32 when coming off of a bye.  This is good for a 0.35 win pct.

Notables:
Ohio State went 56-10 in Big Ten play from 2002-2010* but was 1-3 when facing a conference opponent after a bye.  This includes their 2004 loss to Northwestern, their only loss to the Wildcats since 1971

Penn State and Iowa are also 1-3 when coming off of bye weeks and playing conference opponents

37 of the 65 major-conference teams have a losing post-bye week record.

Edit:
Under Mark Dantonio, MSU has a 1-1 record coming off of a bye week

In 2008, they lost to PSU 14-49
In 2010, they beat Purdue 35-31
 

[*This information was summarized from this article, read the full version from the Wall Street Journal; info current through Oct. 14, 2010]

 

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
Tags:
  • MGoBoard
  • football

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
October 10th, 2011 at 11:56 AM
#2
ILwolverine
Joined: 02/24/2011
MGoPoints: 1397
posted from iPhone

And how is MSU coming off a bye week?

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:04 PM
(Reply to #2) #3
GoBlogSparty
GoBlogSparty's picture
Joined: 02/19/2010
MGoPoints: 986
Terrible -- only win under

Terrible -- only win under Dantonio was that game against Purdue last year where we eek-ed it out.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 1:02 PM
(Reply to #38) #4
joeyb
joeyb's picture
Joined: 10/12/2008
MGoPoints: 14048
This is a great point, which

This is a great point, which I missed. Just because they have a losing percentage after a bye week does not mean that it did not increase their chances to win. I think what you would have to do is look at the record against the spread after a bye week compared to playing in consecutive weeks. You will see a little less than a 50% chance of winning (ties taken into consideration if you go back far enough) when playing in consecutive weeks, but you might also see that after a bye week, it increases to 55-60%, which would be significant enough to try to place a bye week before a good opponent (more specifically, an opponent that is slightly better than you).

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 4:08 PM
(Reply to #43) #5
wolpherine2000
wolpherine2000's picture
Joined: 07/10/2009
MGoPoints: 5644
Yup...

...teams rarely have byes preceding games against out-of-conference creampuffs, which would privilege the non-bye week data.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 10:10 PM
(Reply to #38) #6
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 56299
would be whether or not teams

would be whether or not teams tend, on the whole, to schedule better opponents for the week when they are coming off of a bye.

For most schools this is a moot point; their conference sets the schedule, not them.

If Big Ten teams are terrible after a bye, that would seem to be evidence that they are not helpful, because almost all of those post-bye games are coming against other Big Ten schools.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 1:06 PM
(Reply to #2) #7
Soulfire21
Soulfire21's picture
Joined: 03/18/2010
MGoPoints: 14528
They've had 2 bye weeks (in

They've had 2 bye weeks (in 2008 and 2010) and in 2008 they lost to PSU badly 14-49 and in 2010 they beat Purdue, but it was an ugly 35-31 final score.  Spartans were certainly slow in that game.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 11:57 AM
#8
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 56299
I can't confirm this, but

I can't confirm this, but someone said recently that MSU under Dantonio is 1-5 after a bye.  A bye has the big advantage of getting a team healthier, but it seems to leave teams rusty as well.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:00 PM
(Reply to #3) #9
fattymcbutterpants
Joined: 09/25/2011
MGoPoints: 119
posted from iPhone

I like that stat

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:04 PM
(Reply to #3) #10
FreddieMercuryHayes
Joined: 12/29/2010
MGoPoints: 35030
posted from iPhone

I think that stat is after a lay-off, thus including bowls. They've actually only had two bye-weeks apparently, and are 1-1. A win against purdue when they struggled early, and a loss against PSU.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:08 PM
(Reply to #10) #11
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 56299
I think you're right.  Come

I think you're right.  Come to think of it, they almost certainly would not have had six byes in four seasons.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 11:59 AM
#12
MichiganStudent
MichiganStudent's picture
Joined: 08/27/2008
MGoPoints: 7223
This is some great

This is some great information. I would have thought it would have been the opposite. Thanks for making me feel better about our chances. 

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:00 PM
#13
Erik_in_Dayton
Erik_in_Dayton's picture
Joined: 12/03/2008
MGoPoints: 34185
Interesting

Thanks for tracking this down. 

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:00 PM
#14
jg2112
jg2112's picture
Joined: 11/25/2008
MGoPoints: 7764
Bye weeks occur in the

Bye weeks occur in the playoffs when you automatically advance to a future round.

Michigan State did not get a bye this past weekend from anything - they're still playing 12 games this year.

Michigan State, in fact, is playing this Saturday after an "OPEN WEEK."

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:06 PM
(Reply to #8) #15
GoBlogSparty
GoBlogSparty's picture
Joined: 02/19/2010
MGoPoints: 986
Don't you know the difference

Don't you know the difference between margarine and butter?

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:09 PM
(Reply to #12) #16
mmp
Joined: 08/04/2009
MGoPoints: 136
I can't believe its not

I can't believe its not butter!!

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 1:20 PM
(Reply to #12) #17
Y0ST
Y0ST's picture
Joined: 02/25/2010
MGoPoints: 964
I know

Butter is delicious and deadly. Margarine, not as delicious or as deadly.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 1:54 PM
(Reply to #45) #18
TIMMMAAY
TIMMMAAY's picture
Joined: 09/08/2008
MGoPoints: 41342
Eh

Not as delicious, but still pretty deadly. That's some nasty stuff. 

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:07 PM
(Reply to #6) #19
death by trident
death by trident's picture
Joined: 08/31/2011
MGoPoints: 6071
Bye weeks are not limited to

Bye weeks are not limited to the playoffs. 

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:09 PM
(Reply to #6) #20
Murph
Murph's picture
Joined: 07/30/2008
MGoPoints: 407
mgoblue.com calls open dates "bye weeks"

http://www.mgoblue.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/081809aab.html

 

 

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:14 PM
(Reply to #15) #21
jg2112
jg2112's picture
Joined: 11/25/2008
MGoPoints: 7764
Sports . in a tournament, the
Sports . in a tournament, the preferential status of a player or team not paired with a competitor in an early round and thus automatically advanced to play in the next round: The top three seeded players received byes in the first round.  
Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:25 PM
(Reply to #19) #22
Stewart52
Joined: 11/22/2008
MGoPoints: 267
Ok....

Noone said that advancing a round with no opponent in a playoff wasn't a bye. It doesn't mean that we can't call an open week during the season a bye week too, especially when it's pretty universally accepted as an appropriate term. 

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:27 PM
(Reply to #15) #23
Cottonpicker
Joined: 07/06/2011
MGoPoints: 62
When I was a kid the Ann

When I was a kid the Ann Arbor News (RIP) called them Idle weeks.  Before the 12 game season, I remember asking my dad why we played "Idle" twice in one year.  But hey...I have my BS from Meeeechigan now.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:12 PM
(Reply to #6) #24
WolvinLA2
WolvinLA2's picture
Joined: 11/13/2009
MGoPoints: 52761
Is that true? In the NFL

Is that true? In the NFL they call mid-season off weeks as a bye, why wouldn't the same term apply in college football? I think the terms "bye" "idle and "open" are essentially synonymous, not to mention accepted as correct.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:18 PM
(Reply to #18) #25
jg2112
jg2112's picture
Joined: 11/25/2008
MGoPoints: 7764
The dictionary definition of

The dictionary definition of a "bye" is completely at odds with what the NFL and college football calls a "bye." Just because the NFL and MgoBlue tells one what something is doesn't mean it's right.

No one claims teams in baseball, basketball, soccer or hockey have "byes" when they do not have games on dates when other teams are playing. When Michigan has a weekend off this season in hockey or basketball, it won't be called a "bye," it'll be called an "open date," or probably the most appropriate title, an "off day."

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:38 PM
(Reply to #22) #26
joeyb
joeyb's picture
Joined: 10/12/2008
MGoPoints: 14048
I went to wikipedia to see

I went to wikipedia to see what it said, because it usually explains how or why a term gets used improperly. It didn't do that, but it did mention round robin tournaments with an odd number of teams will give each team a bye week. I'd imagine that's how it came about because a lot of conferences used to play round robins, and some still do. With out of conference open weeks and with larger conferences, that no longer applies, but I think the term sticks around due to familiarity.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:58 PM
(Reply to #34) #27
gomaize11
gomaize11's picture
Joined: 09/02/2009
MGoPoints: 298
+1 for deductive etymology. 

+1 for deductive etymology. 

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:39 PM
(Reply to #22) #28
jblaze
jblaze's picture
Joined: 08/29/2008
MGoPoints: 14173
I'm not looking it up to see if you are correct,

because who cares, but I wanted to point out the different sports can have different definitions for the same term. Football (as evidenced in the WSJ piece) uses the term bye for a week that a team doesn't play, regardless of the reason.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:43 PM
(Reply to #35) #29
joeyb
joeyb's picture
Joined: 10/12/2008
MGoPoints: 14048
I just find the evolution of

I just find the evolution of the English language interesting. It really doesn't matter unless someone likes trying to improve their grammar or vocabulary.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:49 PM
(Reply to #22) #30
Blue2000
Blue2000's picture
Joined: 01/06/2009
MGoPoints: 6032
jg2112 - I was worried

jg2112 - I was worried because i thought you had left.  Fortunately you're still 1) here; and 2) a useless asshole.

Good luck in your noble quest to educate the masses on the appropriate use of the word "bye."

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:54 PM
(Reply to #22) #31
Mr Miggle
Mr Miggle's picture
Joined: 10/07/2010
MGoPoints: 31219
This is just really, really dumb.

That one dictionary definition is hardly exhaustive of all accepted usages of the word "bye" in sports.

Different sports use different terms for what are essentially the same things. There's nothing unusual about that, nor is it limited to sports.

Look up the definition of "basket". Does it say anything about a made field goal in basketball?  If not, does that mean all of us that use the term that way should stop?

 

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:31 PM
(Reply to #6) #32
joeyb
joeyb's picture
Joined: 10/12/2008
MGoPoints: 14048
I thought you left.

I thought you left.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 1:32 PM
(Reply to #6) #33
RickH
RickH's picture
Joined: 11/01/2009
MGoPoints: 915
Who cares?  Stop being

Who cares?  Stop being annoying, you look like a douche.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 2:07 PM
(Reply to #6) #34
mejunglechop
mejunglechop's picture
Joined: 07/09/2008
MGoPoints: 6619
Do you actually think this

Do you actually think this distinction is meaningful or are you flaming?

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:07 PM
#35
Brhino
Joined: 09/08/2009
MGoPoints: 7064
Michigan State's bye-week

Michigan State's bye-week results in the Mark Dantonio Era:

 

2010 (11-2):

Bye week Nov 13

Next week: Def. Purdue 35-31

Comment: way-too-close game against terrible team

 

2009 (6-7):

No bye week

 

2008 (9-4):

Bye week Nov 15

Next week: Lost to #7 Penn State 18-49

Comment: crushed by a superior team

 

2007 (7-6):

No bye week

 

Conclusion: not much to go on here. 

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:18 PM
(Reply to #11) #36
evenyoubrutus
evenyoubrutus's picture
Joined: 11/04/2008
MGoPoints: -11
Cincinnati under

Cincinnati under Dantonio:

2006: Lost to WVU 42-24

2005: Lost to WVU 38-0

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:19 PM
(Reply to #11) #37
Brhino
Joined: 09/08/2009
MGoPoints: 7064
going back even

going back even further:

2004: State gets a bye in the week prior to Braylonfest.  So, they lost, but argueably a 5-7 team taking a ranked 9-3 team to OT demonstrates a better-than-expected result.

2003: Another bye before Michigan.  This time #9 Michigan State loses to #11 Michigan 27-20 in East Lansing.  You might call this a bit of a letdown.  State would go on to lose 3 of its next 4 while Michigan would finish 10-3.  So in hindsight, again, this was a close game against a superior Michigan team.

2002: This 4-8 team gets a bye week before #17 Iowa pastes them 44-16.  Bad team gets whupped by good team, not much to conclude there.

2001: TWO bye weeks for this 7-5 team!  First, state beats a Notre Dame team that will finish 5-6 by a score of 17-10 after a bye.  Next, a 31-28 win over fellow 7-5 team Iowa.  Three average teams in two close games.  Not sure what to conclude there.

1998: Nick Saban takes the spartans to a 6-6 record, including two losses after bye weeks: a 29-17 loss at Michigan (who finishes 10-3), and then a 19-18 squeaker against Minnesota (5-6).

 

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:12 PM
#38
Trebor
Trebor's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 3711
This information still

This information still doesn't quell the uneasiness I have about the game.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:31 PM
(Reply to #17) #39
Mr. Yost
Mr. Yost's picture
Joined: 07/25/2011
MGoPoints: -9898289
Me neither...

Me neither...but this game is the "tell all" game. This is the one that we're going to say "are we back?"

We don't have to win pretty, we don't have to win big. IMO, we just need a W. If Denard has to run 45 times to do it, so be it. We need to win and that's it. After that, I'll know we can roll with anyone on our schedule.

Remember those days, those years where you'd look at the schedule and go "what do we have to do to be 12-0?"

We seem to have forgotten that...we now look and say "8-4 seems right, 9-3 would be awesome"...we win this game and I'll be a lot closer to that "what do we have to do to go 12-0?" mentality.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:15 PM
#40
M-Wolverine
M-Wolverine's picture
Joined: 10/04/2009
MGoPoints: 42199
My bigger worry usually is

Going INTO a bye week, the game before always seems to be abnormally brutal. It's the extra week off, and two weeks to stew about a loss, with no game for redemption the next week that seems to happen more often to Michigan (a program that doesn't lose that much to begin with).

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:19 PM
#41
WolverineHistorian
WolverineHistorian's picture
Joined: 08/10/2009
MGoPoints: 29545
Situations are different for

Situations are different for any team during any year.  Their circumstances vary.  Remember when Joe Paterno insisted that his teams get bye weeks before playing Michigan and Ohio State as part of the agreement to join the Big Ten?   Before the RichRod years, Paterno was 3-1 against Michigan with a bye week and 0-9 against us without one.  It's not always doom and gloom. 

Like I mentioned in the other thread, MSU has a history of bye weeks before us (93, 98, 03, 04).  We were 3-1 in those games but those 4 MSU teams weren't exactly world beaters going 6-6, 6-6, 8-5 and 5-6.  I think it's safe to assume this years MSU team is better than those other 4 that got the extra week.  So, yes.  It does worry me.  They may have barely escaped an awful Purdue team last year but they're obviously going to be much more fired up to play us than the Boilers.   

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:21 PM
#42
FreddieMercuryHayes
Joined: 12/29/2010
MGoPoints: 35030
posted from iPhone

I think bye weeks kill momentum. It can be bad, but it can also be a good thing. Basically, if you're coming of a loss, a bye can help you re-focus and regroup. But If you come off a win, it can stunt that momentum. It won't be a huge help, and anything can happen, but this bye week may help kill the momentum MSU had coming off their program win against a .500 team.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:23 PM
#43
Anonymosity
Anonymosity's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 2480
Dangit, you just killed our

Dangit, you just killed our best excuse if Michigan loses...

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:45 PM
#44
Hoke_Floats
Joined: 09/21/2010
MGoPoints: 2226
freep 5 things sparty must do

http://www.freep.com/article/20111010/SPORTS07/110100426/5-things-Michigan-State-must-do-beat-Michigan?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|Sports|p

kind of general, but worth a read

not worth its own post

 

edit

you can't have one without the other

http://www.freep.com/article/20111010/SPORTS06/110100428/1054/rss19

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:32 PM
#45
Jivas
Jivas's picture
Joined: 07/06/2008
MGoPoints: 2358
NFL data

I did a quick Google search to see what this data would look like for the NFL; while not perfectly analogous, the advantages a team has coming off a bye week should be similar for an NFL team than for a college team.

I found an article from 2009 here.

Most relevant bit: "Since the N.F.L. introduced bye weeks in 1990, the overall record of teams playing after them (309-276-1, 52.7 winning percentage) suggests the advantage is modest at best."

So, with respect to MSU's bye week advantage, perhaps what we are fearing is fear itself.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:38 PM
#46
hart20
hart20's picture
Joined: 05/25/2011
MGoPoints: 5692
Well, this slightly screws up the Diary I was writing.

Good information though, I still think I can make my diary work. This information actually helps.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:47 PM
#47
joeyb
joeyb's picture
Joined: 10/12/2008
MGoPoints: 14048
Another interesting thought

Another interesting thought is that the extra planning for this game might hurt MSU. They have to practice defending our 2 QB formations, but if they overthink it too much during the game, they are going to freeze when something they didn't practice shows up. I expect us to drop a new formation or two on MSU and some new plays out of the other formations. I could see us using the entire playbook if necessary, then just reload with new formations in the bye week.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 12:52 PM
#48
madtadder
madtadder's picture
Joined: 03/24/2009
MGoPoints: 2159
I think a more telling stat,

I think a more telling stat, though more difficult to research, would be how B1G teams perform against the spread after their bye week. If Michigan were playing Minnesota after their bye week that would have a huge difference on the record versus if we were playing Wisconsin after the bye week. The ATS would normalize it. Jamiemac to the rescue?

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 3:43 PM
(Reply to #40) #49
turd ferguson
turd ferguson's picture
Joined: 12/09/2009
MGoPoints: 26489
posted from iPhone

I almost agree with you on this. It would help tell us whether Vegas/gamblers overvalue the bye.

You're right that scheduling makes a big difference. I remember Penn State consistently getting bye weeks before they played us, and I could see teams tending to get tougher matchups after a bye. The problem with just looking at records against the spread is that the Vegas line could internalize whatever advantage/disadvantage comes from having the previous week off.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 2:23 PM
#50
tjyoung
Joined: 08/23/2009
MGoPoints: 467
This makes me feel better

This makes me feel better about our loss after our bye-week last year.  But not much better.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 2:40 PM
#51
maizenblue92
maizenblue92's picture
Joined: 01/01/2009
MGoPoints: 11527
The truth about bye weeks:

It all depends on the quality of the coach. In the NFL for example Bill Belichek and Andy Reid are considered great coaches. They are both undefeated off byes (13-0,11-0). Wade Phillips, Brad Childress, and Norv Turner are bad coaches and are under .500 off byes. 

The same is true for college. Nick Saban, Bob Stoops, and Lloyd Carr were great off byes. It is tougher too see in college because of the talent disparity though.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 5:08 PM
(Reply to #50) #52
goblue_56
Joined: 02/02/2011
MGoPoints: 66
posted from iPhone

I wouldn't say it's solely on the coach. The Pats and Eagles are both talented. The players are the ones playing the game

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 5:46 PM
(Reply to #58) #53
maizenblue92
maizenblue92's picture
Joined: 01/01/2009
MGoPoints: 11527
Cowboys and Chargers are both

Cowboys and Chargers are both talented and lost.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 2:50 PM
#54
Rasmus
Rasmus's picture
Joined: 07/02/2009
MGoPoints: 2201
What about

I think you'd need to study where the bye weeks come in the season. A bye in the first month is used quite differently than an extra week to prepare before a big game later in the season.

Also, I've always thought a lot depends on what happens to the non-bye team the week before. In this case, the NU game seems about perfect as a tune-up. An away game, but not too far away. Weaknesses exposed, but not too much so. I especially like that Gardner got a little bit of meaningful, non-gimmicky work. MSU has an extra week of film to look at, but M has an extra week of game experience. 

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 3:30 PM
#55
jml969
jml969's picture
Joined: 12/21/2008
MGoPoints: 1705
I remember last years bye week

And the game M played afterwards. It was terrible and left all of us wondering what the H E double hockey's sticks did they do with the extra week of prep?

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 4:12 PM
(Reply to #52) #56
allintime23
allintime23's picture
Joined: 09/21/2009
MGoPoints: 15063
posted from iPhone

Wasn't Penn State when we got mcgloined ? That was the worst fame we played.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 4:41 PM
#57
bronxblue
Joined: 11/22/2008
MGoPoints: 59184
Interesting stats.  I always

Interesting stats.  I always thought that the bye week break was overrated - you are talking about college kids, so they really shouldn't be that tired/rusty after a single week off or on.  I can see the advtange of getting some kids healthy, which definitely is helped by the bye, but probably not enough to alter outcomes consistently.  And as BrickTop pointed out, scheduling after the bye can play a large role - if you run into a good team after a bye, it might not matter if you had seen them off a game or not. 

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
October 10th, 2011 at 4:54 PM
#58
BlueTuesday
BlueTuesday's picture
Joined: 04/18/2011
MGoPoints: 1611
That's good stuff there

I love this blog.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
Powered by Drupal, an open source content management system
Theme provided by Roopletheme; sidebars adapted from Chris Murphy.