Death to the "One and Done" ? Good for Michigan in 2014/2015?
**Please don't crucify for any redundancy or prematurity of speaking about our 2014/2015 basketball lineup.
Adam Silver is attempting to get rid of the "One and Done" and force players to play at least 2 years of pre-NBA basketball starting next season. This means that all incoming 2014 freshman will not be able to make the jump after one year and theoretically freeze the 2015 draft projections after the 2014 declarations are made. This could be big for us. Why hop into this loaded draft when next year you stand the strong possibility of doubling or in some cases tripling your stock?
Stauskas is a 15-20 range player in 2014. Solidly in the first round but could slide if he gets showed up in the Draft workouts...which could happen. Stauskas would likely be a top 10 pick or better next season with all of the over-hyped players coming out this year. Stauskas could use another year of strength and conditioning and add some more tools to his game. ( He was beat up a bit today) I would like to see him put more effort into the defensive side of the game. More strength and explosion would assist in that area. His year 3 leap could be scary good! Stauskas could be the next Reggie Miller/Chris Mullin with some more refinement. I think his confidence level in a 3rd year of College basketball would make him nearly unguardable and a sure fire impact prospect in the 2015 NBA season.
Verdict: Good enough to go....and probably will....but if he stayed.....he could be simply off the charts in 2015.
GR3 is a puzzling talent. He is silky smooth and crazy athletic. He has solid range shooting the basketball and is a willing defender. On the hoof...he has serious NBA potential. You just never know what your going to get from Glen. He is very unpredictable and doesn't always seem thoroughly engaged. I think Glen could vault himself from his current 2nd round grade into the top 10 with a MoNsTeR off-season. He could genuinely make himself millions by coming back to Ann Arbor and working his tail off this next season. I really hope that he gets genuine advice and makes the right decision. Glen has as much potential as anyone in the entire B1G conference but he needs another year and particular attention to basketball IQ details.
Verdict: Skilled enough to get drafted on potential. Simply needs more time and refinement and a year of being a #1 scoring option.
McGary is my favorite Wolverine since Webber. He is an absolute worker with tremendous talent. McGary is currently not projected to be drafted. McGary could be a Top 5 pick in 2015. He is simply that good when healthy. After re-watching our 2013 Tourney Run....I was floored by McGary above all else. He has an unparalled motor and excellent mid-range shooting ability. McGary plays very physical and is exactly the type of player that Michigan needs and could flourish with. McGary is a legitimate 6ft10 and 250lbs. McGary has deceptive athleticism and appears to be a cross of Tyler Handsborough and Kevin Love (minus the 3pt range). I'm not sure if there is a ceiling on this kid to be honest. He is a big time talent that works his ass off on the court. If healthy he will be a pre-season All-American next year again. Mitch simply stands too much to lose in leaving early this season when a potentially watered down 2015 Draft could score him literally millions more than this 2014 Draft. Definitely think he should and will stay one more year.
Verdict: Mitch is a beast and simply needs to get his health in order before making the leap. He risks too much financially by sacrificing his Top 5/10 draft stock next Season to leave this season as a possible second rounder.
Levert is a year away from NBA consideration but might also round into a 1st rounder with another year of improvement.
Verdict: Caris might make Thad Matta the biggest dumb dumb in coaching before he leaves Michigan. Next year might be his last if he adds weight and strength. Still not physical enough for the league.
Could Michigan dominate the 2015 NBA draft with 3 or 4 First Rounders? Abso-effin'-Lutely!
Man, I wish this scenario would come to pass. If somehow all four came back, they'd blow the doors off the rest of the B1G and would be a legit National Championship threat. Sadly, I just don't see it happening. I feel like Beilein will never quite be able to climb to the summit, and the reason for that will be that he's always saddled with a revolving door of freshmen and sophomores.
Not saying it's unique or winning is impossible, but I just think it's best to have a balance where at least one of your best players is a junior or senior.
Jon Horford sends regards too.
March 17th, 2014 at 10:51 AM ^
Jordan Morgan is someone who I would say has only recently become one of this team's best players. And Horford I would consider to be of the second tier.
March 17th, 2014 at 10:56 AM ^
And also where Final Fours are reached at a pretty decent clip. And that's a big reason why. I'd happily take it.
March 17th, 2014 at 11:43 AM ^
Eh, that's not really a big reason why. Their top guys didn't always stay 4 years, that's more of a recent thing. They were going to Final Fours because they were just really good, or got hot at the right time (like us last year). If you have a talented team every year for 2 decades, you'll go to Final Fours regularly.
They better make one this year or that streak will end for a bit. MSU's recruiting has taken a drop off and it doesn't look like Gary Harris will be one of those 4 year players.
Michigan State, where the individual development comes slow and the coach begs on his hands and knees for players to stay.
However, if GR3 and Mitch come back we could be lethal. This will also require a big jump from Irvin and Walton in addtion to a 3rd year jump from Caris. All of these seem probable given our system. Stauskas would simply make us an overwhelming favorite and give us proven star power. It could happen.
March 17th, 2014 at 10:31 AM ^
Not as long as Spike is drawing breath.
He'll knock you dead with a basketball pass and make it look like an accident.
March 17th, 2014 at 10:48 AM ^
Shane Morris wil have something to say about that as well.
The thing holding Beilein back from national championships is big play. He needs legitimate big men. If only Mitch were healthy this year. At least there's a good chance we get him next year.
Walton/Albrecht
LeVert/3.5starfreshman
Irvin/Chatman
Robinson/Donnal
McGary/Horford
March 17th, 2014 at 10:51 AM ^
on the floor. And it cost us in several of our losses. We can overcome it much of the time against weaker competition and with good coaching by Beilein. But, yesterday, no. Bielfeldt has hardly played all year and you can't expect him to come in and do well against MSU's big guys.
So yes, I'd like to see us get to the point where we have 2 bigs on the floor at least half the time - or more.
Should not have been taken out with one foul. Beilein is awesome, would not trade him for anyone, but Morgan was needed in there especially so early in the game so we could get settled in. Just play Morgan, even if you tell him to not contest much at all. Max, is simply not capable of playing at this level down low. Period. The defensive loss was one thing, but the biggest difference is offensively, Morgan is so invaluable setting screens and rolling to the basket that the offense looks lost when he's not in there. Horford has basically been a non-factor the last 3 games. One other thought that bothers me, why do our guards try to force the ball down low to Horford??? It invariably results in a turnover, Horford is not going to finish down low unless it's an uncontested dunk.
I didn't say it was a certainty, I said "I feel", i.e., "It's a concern." Yes, I obviously remember last year. They got hot at the right time and played out of their minds. That's the kind of unpredictable thing that you have to rely on with youth. I just feel like the stability of guys who stay and mature and develop would bring a little more certainty. It's not like I'm trashing Beilein here.
Honestly I thought Trey Burke already made Thad Matta the biggest dumb dumb in coaching. I can't name one Ohio state fan that wouldn't have rather had Trey for 2 years instead of Craft for 4. How can you be a guard in major college program for 4 years and still not be able to shoot.
Craft should've played safety in football. He would have been pretty solid. I have no clue how a kid spends 4 years in college at a major program and is that poor of an outside shooter. Baffling.
March 17th, 2014 at 11:47 AM ^
That's what will stop him from having an NBA career. If he could knock down a three at a 40% clip, he'd hang around the league for a solid period of time.
March 17th, 2014 at 11:13 AM ^
This SI article has some direct quotes from SIlver regarding his justification for increasing the age limit (full article here):
We believe the additional year of maturity would be meaningful. And increasingly, I’ve been told by many NBA coaches that one of the issues with the younger guys coming into the league is they’ve never had an opportunity to lead. By having come directly out of their first year of college, those are the moments in their lives where…they were put in positions as upper classmen, where they first learned how to lead teammates.
He does indicate that the aditional year could be in college, or in the D-League or even overseas.
Many fans see the D-league as some kind of death trap, but you know what? Many of these players want to be playing pro ball now. They don't care for the college experience, which isn't a bad thing.
For as many times as we've been through players leaving where they weren't for sure 1st rounders (Harris, Morris, Hardaway), you would think people would expect players to leave so they can devote all their time to developing their game.
March 17th, 2014 at 10:07 AM ^
Or in NBA Executive Speak: "Too many of our GM's are throwing money at teenagers who haven't played equal competition since Middle School, and that's money we could have used for another Hot Tub. So if we can keep this one sided relationship going, yay Team!"
I love this guy.
I think that's really the question, and we don't know the answer. If there's real risk that further play might cause further and potentially career-damaging injury, he might need to cash in now while he can.
Of course the NBA has figured that out and they'll want to see proof that he's healthy and can play. The best way to do that would be to come back and show them a season of quality play...if the risk isn't too great.
Kind of a catch-22 and the answer is in details we don't have.
I don't understand why you wrote your post about our current crop of kids when the article is about 2014 incoming freshman. Hence it has nothing to do with our current crop of kids - it would affect Chatman for example. I think you did it with the assumption kids will be advised to stick around another year so they move up a few slots next year since they have less one and dones to deal with in 2015 but that is a serious reach. For example due to athleticism Nik is not going to be a top 8 pick. Ever. See dude from Creighton who right now is seen as a higher level prospect than Nik and is projecting 12-14. So you are asking Nik to come back, risk injury, lose 1 year of earning power, lose one year of "age", to move up 4-6 slots in the draft. Doesn't make sense; he gone by any logical view. Mitch with his injury is a big wildcard. GR3 I thought turned the corner 3 weeks ago but continues to show when he plays against physical players he is erased. (He is playing out of position to his credit).
Also I don't get the analysis because the rule is for 2 and done; none of our guys have been 1 and done so it would not have affected us in any way other than to quash all speculation last summer about GR3 and Mitch.
In the broader point I have been tongue in cheek saying to people Beilein + staff's #1 "problem" right now is they are too darn good at player development. Just imagine if they were a bit worse and all our '2 and dones' were '3 and dones' instead.
Overall I don't see this rule changing much for UM with the talent trajectory of kids we get right now. Outside of Mitch who was an "early 5 star" and top 5 kind of recruit the guys we have found who end up being 5 stars (and on paper 1 and dones) are the GR3 and Irvin variety who were identified earlier as lower level recruits who burst on the scene later as juniors and seniors; I think in part outside of talent recognition it has to do with the "age thing" that Beilein hints at - they take kids who are young for their class and hence probably are overlooked as they don't physically dominate their classmates esp as freshman and sophomores.
Now if we were Kentucky and how they recruit this would be a complete game changer. I do think it would be great for the NCAA game but unless UM starts getting more of the truly ridiculous talent that Kansas, Duke, UNC, Kentucky regularly pull down as "normal" it might be a "careful of what you wish for" issue - facing Parker or Wiggins or Randle as sophomores in the big dance is not something I'd like.
March 17th, 2014 at 10:58 AM ^
He's analyzing what choices our current pro prospects should make in light of this new rule. The theory being that one-and-done players make up about half of the first round every year. If the rule is going into effect for the next draft, then there are 15 would-be one-and-done players that won't be entering the 2015 draft. Anyone considering entering the 2014 draft, should theoretically have much higher draft stock in 2015. If you're a mid first-round pick in 2014 you might be top-10 in 2015. If you're an early second round pick in 2014, you're likely a first round lock in 2015. This should matter to some of our current players, thus the post.
March 17th, 2014 at 10:20 AM ^
Personally, I think they should have a hockey system where everyone is drafted out of high school and gets called up when ready.
In the absence of that, a system like in baseball where you either go straight into the league or stay in college for at least three seasons would be nice.
March 17th, 2014 at 11:24 AM ^
March 17th, 2014 at 11:41 AM ^
I agree that either method is superior. The problem is, basketball really does produce 18 year olds that should be playing in the NBA (LeBron), but not nearly as many as the number of 18 year olds that think they're ready. So to prevent too many 18 year olds from flaming out, they do the one-and-done rule as a half-assed measure to solve the problem.
It's also not only the NBA's fault. I think college coaches would bristle under the uncerrtainty of not knowing when an NBA team is going to yank a player out of college, like they can under the NHL system. College coaches have already effectively killed the NBA draft withdrawl window.
I'm not sure the baseball system is in the best interest of the NBA, because too many 18 year olds would still make mistakes, though, if the D-league gets bigger this should be less of a problem. And I think college coaches would prevent the hockey system. So I think we're stuck with half-methods that don't help either the NBA, the NCAA, or the players they are supposed to care about.
That isn't a problem in baseball because there's a farm system of sufficient size to give them all a place to develop. Expansion of the D-league would be nice but I'm not sure it's enough. What soccer teams often do is loan those players out to smaller clubs. Could NBA teams do the same, sending players overseas on loan? I'd think the European clubs would be willing partners--they'd love to have their share of the 1-and-done years.
March 17th, 2014 at 10:36 AM ^
There are lots of good reasons for Nik Stauskas, Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary to return to Michigan for next season; but there’s one good reason for all three of them to leave: Money!
While it’s true that there’s a possibility of NBA draft stock rising for Michigan’s sophomores if they only wait until next year, you have to remember that talented freshmen and sophomores on other college teams would be considering the same thing. So, there’s no guarantee that staying in college for another year would be best for any of Michigan’s three draft-likely players. Each of them could decide to strike while the iron’s hot.
For whatever weakness Nik Stauskas may show in NBA Draft workouts, there surely will be at least one NBA team that would gamble on him in the first round this year. At worst, he’ll be playing overseas or in the NBA D League next season. At best, he’ll be drawing an NBA salary, and then he and Syracuse's Tyler Ennis can take over Team Canada's backcourt.
If the occasional lack of interest Glenn Robinson III shows on the court is magnified when he has to be doing school work or sitting in a classroom, even a year or two in a European league or the NBA’s Development League will have to seem better to him than staying at Michigan, if he’s being paid to play.
Even if Mitch McGary hasn’t fully recovered from his back surgery, unless NBA medical exams indicate that his back problem is worse than he and his family believe it is, he has nothing to lose by spending another six months or a year rehabbing while on some NBA team’s payroll. Even if he doesn’t suit up for Michigan when the Wolverines start play in the NCAA tournament,* if he gets clearance from NBA doctors, then he’d be no worse than a second round draft choice this year, based only on the potential he showed in last year’s NCAA tournament.
* Considering the results of the Big Ten championship game, it would not surprise me if McGary suits up to play against Wofford, even if he never leaves the bench, and only gets to make a "Willis Reed Entrance" just before the opening tip.
March 17th, 2014 at 11:52 AM ^
Nik Stauskas is a first-round lock at this point. I wouldn't call it gambling to say this.
Is it likely that McGary would get a one-year contract at a second-rounder's salary that he could then renegotiate after a successful rehab?
The problem (and this is an issue for GRIII too) is that if he comes out now, he's stuck for a while with the salary he can command now. If he waits a year he'll earn the salary he can command in a year, with proof that he's healthy. The difference in salary between a second-round pick and a top-5 pick is enormous and foregoing a year of the former might be well worth the risk.
March 17th, 2014 at 11:53 AM ^
Of the four mentioned, Nik is the most NBA-ready. That being said, he still needs at least one more year in college. Glenn needs a lot of work done, even though he is still a good player. LeVert, while awesome and has mad ball skills, absolutely needs to get bigger and will benefit from another year in college. McGary likely would have been NBA-ready after this season...had he played more...I think he also needs one more year in college.
March 17th, 2014 at 12:00 PM ^
I either favor letting players do whatever they want (enter the draft straight from high school) or a two-year system. Selfishly, I lean towards the latter, as I think it enhances the college game, which I'm more of a fan of, but that's just for my own benefit.
Since this thread has devolved into the draft prospects of a current players, here's my two cents: There's literally no way to tell whether or not its a good choice for a player to leave or come back for another season. Both Trey Burke and THJ benefited from an extra season. Guys like Joakim Noah and Tyler Hansborough dropped due to coming back for extra seasons. Manny Harris and Darius Morris probably left too early. There's no way to tell whether its beneficial or not.
My gut says all three of the Stauskas, McGary and GRIII should stay for different reasons. Stauskas, because he could play himself into a higher pick next year and make a lot more money. McGary, because he's a projected second rounder who could easily play himself into the first round of a weak draft if he has a decent season next year. And GRIII should stay because he doesn't need the money and this will be the last time he's anywhere close to being the man on a basketball team. Seriously, as much as I like the guy, he's never gonna be a 2nd or 3rd option in the NBA. So why not enjoy playing basketball as an intregal part of a great team for a few more years?
March 17th, 2014 at 12:29 PM ^
I'm all for making it a requirement to be in college (or simply two years removed from high school) for at least two years, preferably three. Also, I cannot imagine how difficult it is to recruit for basketball. At least with football, you know certain guys will be around for at least three years. With basketball, coaches have to recruit as if they're going to lose their star players every year.
March 17th, 2014 at 12:19 PM ^