DeAnthony Arnett Leaning Towards USC

....this?

I have no problem with him going there, to each his own. But, Barkley is probably not gonna stick around for his senior year and it's reported Kiffin already doesn't think Scroggins will develop into a star. I don't think the 2 year bowl ban is a big deal, but by the time Arnett is a junior the scholarship crunch will probably really hurt the team.

I agree with everything you said Tom.  I also think that kids hae short attention spans.  I think we'll see a hit (how major nobody knows) to USC recruiting after 1 or 2 years without being i a bowl game.  How many of these kids who are citing Michigan's record remember that we were in the Capital One Bowl 2 years ago and the Rose Bowl 3 years ago (calendar years not football seasons).

But they should doubt his ability to coach. I understand Arnett's reluctance to come to UM given the offense. Although, a special talent, a la Chris Henry can overcome that to succeed in the NFL (yes I know what happened to Henry, but he also had one of the all time high TD/catch ratios when healthy/sane). Putting Mich aside,I can't help but think kiffen is going to ruin a lot of kids lives over the next couple of years before he gets fired for a string of major violations..

Mike Williams, Keary Colbert, Steve Smith, Dwayne Jarrett, Kareem Kelly, and Patrick Turner all got drafted.  Kiffin coached all of them as either wide receiver coach or passing-game/offensive coordinator in his five years at SC.  All but Kelly went in the first three rounds. 

He has a pretty good record of getting guys to the NFL and judging by the not so stellar production from this group in the pros, he probably got the most out of their talents.

Steve Smith just had a 1,200 yard season with 7 receiving TD's to lead the Giants in both categories.  That is better than any former U-M receiver did last year and better than all but one season in Braylon Edwards' career.  Keary Colbert also had a solid rookie year (over 700 yards) before chronic injuries derailed his career.

Do people blame Lloyd Carr because David Terrell and Marquise Walker sucked in the pros?

I stand by my "lost gloriously" statement.

a) He had a lot of returning talent on his '09 team, including the best defender in the country.

b) Tennesse finished tied for 2nd in the their division with Georgia and behind Florida. You could also call that tied for 3rd out of 6 teams. Georgia had their worst year in a decade. Tennesse finished 4-4 overall in the SEC. They finished 4-1 in their "division" because their division is top heavy. They finished 0-3 vs. the other half of the SEC. They finished ahead of a 3-5 South Carolina team, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt.  Arguably the 3 worst teams in the SEC. Here are their 7 wins: W. Kentucky, Ohio, Georgia, South Carolina, Memphis, Vanderbilt, Kentucky. S. Carolina and Georgia are the only "good wins. Beating spurrier means less when his team went 7-6.

d) The Raiders won 4 games under Kiffin in 2007, not 5. Russell didn't start until week 17, he only played in 1 game the entire year. Josh McNown and Culpepper were his QBs. Not Hall of Famers, but not Russel. They won 5 games in 2008 after he was fired with Russell as the QB. So yes, they got better without Kiffin.

e) I explicitly said I understand why Arnett wouldn't choose Michigan. RR has nothing to do with my comments. 4 wins in the NFL is pretty terrible regardless of the team.  His year at Tennesse was not a good year. Especially considering his D coordinator is one the best defensive minds the NFL has seen. He has zero history as a head coach that would lead me to believe he'll have any success.

I really don't understand why you'd be playing with stats to try and support this guy. Strange.

USC is a great destination, but given the situation with probabation and kiffin, there are at least a handful of other schools that make more sense. My opinion, but i think it's pretty vaild. Arnett wants to go someplace where he is going to win now. USC seems to have a lot of risk involved in that arena given their scholarship reductions and their non-proven head coach.

Michigan fans know better than anyone how important depth is to fielding a winning team. USC will have real depth issues when Arnett takes the field due to the sanctions. That's a fact. That's a risk. It sounds like an iffy move to me to go to USC at this point.

I don't follow the Raiders enough to remember all of their games, but going 5-11 is hardly something to give the guy a trophy over. It really isn't the toughest division.

As for Tennessee, they had plenty of talent and survived mostly on defense. I give Monte credit for that. Of course, Monte is 70. By the time USC gets off sanctions and works its way through the impact of having only 15 scholarship players in each of the next three classes (my estimate is at least 5 years), Monte will probably be retired. Lane better brush up on his defense.

This year they have some depth issues on the o-line (Carroll failed to recruit the proper numbers the last few years) but the talent is solid.

The talent is solid right now, but the attrition is nowhere near complete. I was under the impression, like most other people, that most starters would decide to stay put, but now I'm hearing Tyron Smith transfer rumors, that would be a big blow.