Congrats to D-Mo, playing for the hometown team is big for him.
landing spot. will be interesting to see how he does.
Congrats to D-Mo, playing for the hometown team is big for him.
I am more than happy to have a Michigan man playing for my Lakers.
Agreed. I expect a long career
Going back to his hometown. Don't like the Lakers but good luck Darius!
saying this is perfect and way better than if he went in 1st round
not judging those comments, just saying they're inevitable.
This is perfect for him. Way better than if he would've gone in the first round.
His paycheck probably, but the labor deal may change things re: guaranteed contracts.
You may be right....but that may be in late Fall 2012.
To be fair, if he was going to go in the 2nd round, the Lakers/Heat/Spurs were the best places for him to end up. Certainly not better than a 1st rounder, but if he had to go in the 2nd, the Lakers aren't the worst place he could have ended up.
That would have been Minnesota.
Who picked up 3 guards in that trade?
Sweet! Congrats Darius.
Now, someone who follows pro basketball, is this a good thing for him?
The Lakers need a young point guard. Morris will have at least a few guys - Bryant, Gasol, Bynum -to pass to. This should be good for him.
They're also going to go away from the Triangle with Mike Brown as their new coach. Most people are assuming they'll go to a more standard NBA, pick-roll heavy offense, which plays to Morris's strengths.
This should be a good thing for him. He gets to learn from Derek Fisher's leadership. He also is not required to be an immediate scoring threat due to the fact that the Lakers have Bryant/Gasol/Odom/Bynum, etc. He gets to play for a contender which is always nice to see, and its his home town team.
Also I always though DMo was a good defender and with Mike Brown having a defensive specialty as a coach he should be able to gain solid playing time his rookie season, especially with Fisher looking older by the day.
At least he is going to a team with stable ownership that is committed to trying to win.
I root for the Lakers and love this pick. I can't wait to see him in the Purple and Yellow. I hope he has a great long career.
You assume that Fischer is coming back? He was Phil Jackson's guy, with the new coaching staff and his lack of productivity the past two seasons I would not be surprised to see him not with the team next season.
I do assume he is coming back, they have him under contract for next year for 3.4 million with another year after that as a player option for another 3.4. I think he plays one, MAYBE both of the years and then retires, but even one year with being under a veteran's wing would help.
Fisher might come back, but they have to get rid of someone. There is no way Bryant, Gasol, Bynum, Odom and Artest are on the same team next year. Out of those guys I would say Bryant is the only safe one.
I would like to see them get rid of Bynum and Artest.
Bynum is fantastic when he can play, but how much can you trust a young center that has barely played half of the games in the past couple years and doesn't seem to have any stability in his knees going forward.
Artest is a really good defender, but he is such an offensive liability that Lakers' fans shriek whenever he shoots the ball. How much longer can they afford to play 4 on 5 while on the offensive side of the ball (Phil Jackson would just stick Artest in the corner to have him out of the way at times).
If they could find some way to package the two of them plus picks for Dwight Howard that would be great.
They also need some youth and if they don't make moves soon they may be left with a situation a couple years down the road when everyone is too old and no one brings any trade value.
The 2nd round of the NBA draft is not someplace anyone really wants to be The contracts are not guaranteed and most players drafted there are lucky to ever make a big impact.
Looking at the Lakers specifically, they tend to do pretty well in the second round, as about half of their picks in recent years stuck in the NBA.
Still, no sophomore leaving college wants to end up in the 2nd round. The rule of thumb is that if you aren't going to go in the 1st round, you shouldn't leave school. Darius got some really REALLY bad advice, just like Manny Harris did.
We can't live out the alternate possibility so who knows if it was bad advice? Manny Harris probably would've been drafted if he'd left after his sophomore year, but would he have stuck with his team like he did with the Cavs? Coming back isn't always the right decision even if you didn't get drafted where you hoped.
Getting drafted in the 2nd round means nothing, especially in a draft where no one knows half of the players and there is no talent in it. Great decision by Morris!
Is Morris going to issue an apology to us Michigan fans that called him an idiot for leaving early? Since what we said proved to be right and should have gone back to school for another year to improve his game. The sad part about this story is that choices like this are what is killing both the college and pro game.
John Beilein was on WTKA this morning and said that "representatives of NBA teams" had told him that Morris could go anywhere from around 15-17 to 50. So Morris knew going into this that there was a chance he wasn't going to be taken in the first round, but he decided to take that chance anyway. It's his life, he made his decision, and how he'll have to live with it.
Given how hard he works, I for one wouldn't bet against Morris making fools out of all the naysayers on this board.
Beilein also said: "Darius is in a good spot with the Lakers, and I know he's very pleased."
But lets be honest here: Morris did not go pro to be picked 41st and land in a "good" situation with the Lakers.
He went because he thought he could be a first round pick and sign a nice contract.
With such a wild swing of expecations (15th to 50th??), it would seem that coming back and having a big year could get him something a lot more solid.
So now he's a second round pick without a garaunteed contract in a year where the NBA might be locked out.
Who knows, maybe the decisions in the lockout will positively affect him, but as of right now, this is as headshaking of a decision as it was when he declared.
Michigan was poised for a big year and he was going to be the leader. He could have played himself into the first round. Not to mention he gave up a year of being "the Man" to sit the bench in the NBA or be an obscure player in the D-League.
I wish him all the best and hopefully he pulls a Ginobli and becomes an All-Star, but given his reasons for going pro, he made the wrong decision.
He might not have been able to play his way into the first round. Several lottery picks this year decided to wait to enter the NBA, which means next years draft is going to have more talent than most years. Unless Morris were to make a significant leap in ability, he probably would have been drafted in the second round next year. Basketball isn't like football where all players need to go to college to get bigger and develop their game. They can do that in the NBA and get paid to do it. It's up to Darius to determine if this was the right decision. If his dream is to play in the NBA go after that dream while he still can.
and I think this is a great fit for him. The Lakers will be looking for a new point guard in the next year and I don't think Steve Blake is their point guard of the future.
So the fit is pretty damn great from a roster standpoint but the problem is that 2nd round picks are not guaranteed and this is a terrible year to be drafted in the 2nd round with the lockout and all.
He would have been better staying another year and improving but at least with LA there is almost no chance he will be cut.
Since you are a NBA nut I'm guessing you know that the main reason why the Lakers got Blake is because he would routinely destroy them when he was on the Blazers. When Blake was put into the triangle offense under Phil Jackson it basically ruined him and any production you should have seen from him. I still think Blake can be a decent point guard, but putting him the triangle destroyed him.
really get a chance to prove himself, and with his hometown team.
Jay Bilas is such an asswhole. He just rips on this kid saying if he wasn't tall he basically wouldn't be able to play basketball. Damn that guy is a prick.
Good court vision, good height. Poor perimeter shooter, defense yet to be proven. That's pretty much him in an objective nutshell.
He sounds like your typical NBA player to me.
shooting and defense in the NBA > shooting and defense in college
Though to be fair, pro players are also taller and in possession of better court vision.
That people defend even the slightest criticism of Michigan athletes like they are defending their own children.
I didn't see the draft but isn't that a rather obvious comment. I haven't seen many 5 foot 5 inch basketball players. Bugsy Bogues being the clear exception.
He meant that if Morris was like 6 feet 2 inches, that he wouldn't ever be a good point guard.
if shaq was 6'7" he wouldn't have made the nba either.
and that is a positive attribute. It was one of his main positive attributes listed in his scouting reports. Bilas reiterated it. Is it a ground breaking revelation? No. Are all people watching the draft as familiar with Morris as we are? No.
it's muggsy bogues
I think his overall tone for Morris was negative. I may be biased because I hate Bilas, but his tone seemed so much more positive for basically every other player.
Sometimes, I think guys like Bilas who love the college game tend to take kids to task when they leave early and don't get drafted very early - in his eyes, it might be frustrating that guys like Morris could stick around and be stars in college for another year rather than struggling in relative anonymity to keep a roster spot in the NBA.
If you are saying Bilas is an asshole, then I am in full agreement.
Gets to play in his home state and with Bryant.Wish he would of stayed but oh well.
side note: I hate Jay Bilas and his comments about DMo. Way to be a negative nancy
Good decision, Darius. Good luck in the NBA.
I'm so glad that he was drafted. That he gets to go home and play for a good team is icing on the cake.
Softens the blow of the second round.
41 pick? Shoulda stayed at Michigan at least one more year. Lakers doesn't seem like a bad position to be in. Too bad you gotta fight to make the team, being a second rounder. Good luck Morris.
Yes, but the guys he's "fighting" are...Steve Blake and Jordan Farmar. In fact, I'd imagine all three of them, along with Fisher, will be on the Lakers' roster. And I think that DMo will vulture minutes from both Blake and Farmar. Neither have been remotely impressive. Frankly,. if DMo can't beat those guys out and prove himself a better NBA player than either by, say, the end of his 2nd year in the NBA, then his future is pretty bleak as an NBA point guard.
Is a New Jersey Net, just fyi. So the "fight" got a little easier.
Good luck to him.
This is awesome. I thought the Lakers were the best fit for DMO a few months ago and I still believe they're the ideal team for him. He'll be surrounded by tons of talent, an older PG whom he can learn from and eventually take over, and he's got a new coach who Morris can work to impress. Great fit IMO. Also, he'll be right at home here.
He's got 3 things he'll have to improve to get significant minutes for LAL. First two are obvious: shooting (has to be able to knock down 3s at a rate near the league avg, he doesn't do enough other stuff on the court to be an offensive liability in the way that say, Rondo, is) and defense (he's got to prove he's quick enough to stay in front of NBA point guards). But third, he has to learn to play without the ball. He's not going to dominate the ball the way he has his entire career, only NBA superstars get as much of the ball as Morris did last year, and that's obviously Kobe's role on the Lakers. Morris will have to figure out how to be effective with a much lower usage rate.
Your third point is really intelligent (seriously). I hadn't thought of that, but I completely agree. At U of M, he dominated the ball; his usage rate was absurd, and he created more team points than any player in the country (points off of assists plus own points). With LA, it's going to be a different ballgame. He won't be the floor general if he's playing with the better players on that squad; perhaps in garbage time he could be, but that's not a great path for him if he wants to succeed. He's going to make some significant adjustments in a mental way/approach to the game beyond just the usual ones for a rookie.
cheering for Dallas, or Portland, but cheering for LA is way better than watching him play for Miami.
like the Lakers (does anyone outside LA?), I love D-Mo. I wish the best for him in his NBA career.
IDK about liking the Lakers but I routinely root for them as Kobe is my favorite player. Being from the Detroit area, I don't really like the Pistons oddly enough (Tigers, Wings, Lions, UM fan) so I dunno. I don't really mind the Lakers, I have no reason to really hate them. They've always had players I've liked.
i live in LA(more OC), but I hate the Lakers. I am going to support D Mo regardless, but maybe this will make me hate them less. The thing about the Lakers is that it is more so the obnoxious bandwagon and fair weather fans that makes me hate them.
Well, this is awkward.
Really happy for you.
They definitely need help at the point guard position and he should be able to contribute early to a great franchise and his hometown team. Couldn't have asked for a better situation!
Good luck Darius!!!
What if he came back, led us to the Final Four and was a boarderline lottery pick? I feel like that would have been a much better situation.
For us? yes. For him from a financial standpoint, as far as guaranteed money? No doubt. Chances of him leading us to a Final Four? Hard to say. Probably less likely than him performing well for the Lakers and earning a guaranteed contract. So let's say he does that, gets drafted, say, 12th overall to a terrible franchise where he has no one to learn from, a poisonous lockerroom, and he flounders. Yes, he's got the guaranteed money from that first contract. But his eventual earnings, success, and happiness may not be as high as they end up being in the current situation. It's obviously too early to say, and there are a ton of hypotheticals involved. For example, say he blows out his knee, Shaun Livingston-style in game 5 next year for the Maize and Blue and didn't take out an insurance policy? Point is, from a strictly basketball standpoint, he is in one of the best 3 or 4 situations he could be in. Since we can't see into the (hypothetical) future if he'd stayed, it's hard to really say.
Also: Erazem Lorbek's rights were just traded. He played for MSU and left in 2005. This is funny.
hasn't practically everyone one of the top 8 players had some sort of personal issue? Fisher seems to be a good cat though. I can't think of many worse "off the court" teams to go to than LA.
Most of them have or have had personal issues. Even Derek Fisher, but I wouldn't consider it a negative issue. The main reason why FIsher left the Jazz is so that he could be closer to an eye specialist for his daughter. Fisher from all accounts is a very good guy.
Gasol had some thing with a teammates wife or girlfriend telling Pau's girlfriend to dump him. The rumor is that Kobe's wife told Pau's girlfriend to dump him. There was a rumored falling out between Kobe and Gasol because of this during the playoffs. Many people think that this is why Gasol played poorly or seemed off in the playoffs.
Lamar Odom is married to the beast Kardashian and released a gender neutral fragrance with her.
Artest is Artest. Pretty active on twitter. Couple of my friends met him because he lets people know where he is at. From what my friends have told me he is a really nice guy, but I think something is off with him.
I just hate Kobe and his stupid snarl thing and he had his issues in the past. It seems like his wife keeps him on lockdown now anyways.
Luke Walton had a BBQ restaurant that failed. I never went to it after I found out it was his restaurant.
Matt Barnes's wife, gf or ex-something or rather is on some reality show. I think there was some issue or drama from that. I don't really know since I have never seen the show.
Andrew Bynum's issues have been injury related and I guess maturity. People is LA over reacted when Bynum was carrying playboy playmates on his back right after he had surgery.
Shannon Brown is a sparty. Enough said.
i'm happy that at least he's going to his hometown team. but another poor gamble by entering the draft. he lost millions. the league minimum salary is under $500k, assuming he makes the Lakers (i think he does for sure). but being a first round selection would guarantee him at least twice that salary and several million if he became a lottery pick.
he and manny will obviously be making good $, but they potentially lost millions by leaving too early. another lesson learned, hopefully.
I still think it can be argued that Manny left too late.
If he stayed with Darrius and THJ the team could have amazing. There was no way for him to know 2010-2011 wasn't going to be a rebuilding mess. Manny could have been a Top10 pick in tihs draft.
but he saw significant PT in clev this year, so his game must have improved this year. the $$ are so much bigger if you get grabbed in the first round. not sure he gets picked in the first round after his soph year, but we'll never know.
It's all hypothetical of course. I would have guessed coming off of the tourney run in '09 Manny would have been at least a second round pick. But then again, if he got picked by a team without a lot of roster space, maybe he doesn't get the chance he had going into a gutted out Cavs team to make a name for himself. We'll never know is the only thing we really know.
from what i've heard, players are better off not being drafted then going in the 2nd round. undrafted players have the luxury of trying out with a team that they have the best chance of making.
2nd rounders are not guaranteed and are stuck with that team. if they get cut, good luck making another team that year.
That can be true. Being drafted in the second round as a throwaway "best player available" pick can be a bad thing. But if you can get drafted by a team that has a need at the position (which is the case here), it's not so bad. If he were an undrafted free agent, the Lakers are one of the franchises he'd have probably picked anyway.
It's still not clear this was a "poor gamble" by Morris. He probably would have continued developing next year (not 100%, but very likely), and in theory this would have raised his draft stock. But the draft next year is going to be LOADED because 10+ guys who could have been drafted this year didn't declare due to the upcoming lockout. So even if he improves his stock 10 or so spots, it might not have done him any good. Combine that with the injury risk of staying in school, and the non-zero risk of not improving his numbers significantly, and it's not clear this was a terrible decision.
I selfishly wish he had stayed, but he's in a good situation in LA and it's not clear things would have been meaningfully better after another season. I hope he has a great career out there.
if only improved his outside shot marginally, i think he would be a shoe-in 1st rounder next year, which is many millions more than he will be making now. so basically he is risking less than $500k to stay in school with the option of making many millions more if taken in round 1. obviously, this ignores injury risk, but i hope kids like him have insurance to protect against that these days.
I'd take playing with Kobe gasol and artest and less money over risking an injury and no guarantee of higher draft status. And the potential to play somewhere like indianapolis
Not to mention, frankly, your "big" NBA contract doesn't come with your first deal. 1st round picks have slotted salaries. I'd take the gamble of being in a situation where I am far more likely to succeed as, you know, a basketball player (the one he's in) vs. shitty hypothetical lotteryish team (best case scenario if he raises his stock all the way up to, say, pick 10-20 of next year's draft). I think a decent example is a guy like Rajon Rondo. Frankly, he was not that good at Kentucky. His shot was about as bad as Wayne Turner's from back in the day, he seemed to have a terrible attitude, he didn't pass well and had a decent but not great handle. However, his athleticism paired with the invaluable tutelage of the guys he's been around since he arrived in the NBA has made him into what he is today. It isn't just talent. It's talent, mental toughness, and the formation of one's skills and continued progression of those skills and attitude, which the organization one is in and the teammates one is provided with...have a massive impact. Unless you're a "can't miss" guy, but then again, many "can't miss" guys do, in fact, miss. See: entire 1986 first round.
if only improved his outside shot marginally, i think he would be a shoe-in 1st rounder next year
That might be true if the 2012 draft field were as weak as this year's, but it isn't. This year's draft class was unusually weak, while next year's will be strong. For him to simply have treaded water and remained the #41 player would have required significant improvement. For him to improve into the top 30 would have required a big step up in performance.
Just curious, but why is next year's draft so much stronger? I get that Sullinger and Barnes will be there, but they're only two guys. Is the incoming freshman class that much stronger? Mock drafts show 7-8 one and done's, that's not far out of line with this draft.
I get that the next draf might be better, but when NBA people consider the quality of the draft, they don't often consider anything beside the top 10-15 picks. Even in a "deep" draft, anything beyond that isn't necessarily an instant impact type player.
Your statement that he would have required significant improvement to be the 41st player in next year's draft is crazy. He would need to improve only to show scouts that he hasn't peaked, but significant imrpovement would make him an easy first round choice.
It's always been my general position that if you leave early for the NBA and don't get taken in the first round, you made a mistake. I'm not going to change my mind just because I like Morris and hope that he's succesful.
Its just something people like to say because it sounds good, especially in the case of Darius Morris leaving early.
Fact is, a season as the man on a Michigan team competing for a Big Ten title and making a run in the tournament probably would have shot Morris up into the mid-20s and made him a lot more money.
Could it have went the other way? Possibly. But worst case scenario is he'd probably be sitting where he is now.
That assessment sounds an awful lot like where he was projected this year. There were plenty of mocks where he was projected to go into the mid-20s this year. Things just fell poorly and he went 41st.
You're advocating a position where he doesn't improve his stock at all and loses a year's salary. He made the right choice.
Should I have put it into meaningless percentages so it is easier to understand?
Okay, so if he stayed in school and improved and Michigan has a good season, there's a 75% he would be a middle to end first round pick, probably in the mid-20's.
There' also the possibility that he could find himself exactly where he is is today. Say a 12.5% chance.
There's also a possibility that he plays so well that he rises into the lottery. 7.5% chance.
There's also a chance he declines - unlikely - and finds himself at the tail end of the second round or undrafted. 5%.
I'm advocating he should have come back to Michigan, been the best player on a rising team and earned himself a better payday by playing himself into the first round. He came out because that's what he wanted: to go as high as he could. I think I'm correct in saying that 41st was not the position that he craved. He could have done better next year.
Quite frankly, this is odd to me: Did none of you have any faith in his ability to improve next year?
Percentages would be useful if they weren't completely arbitrary and gamed to favor your point of view.
Several people have mentioned it already in this thread, but I'll repeat it: NBA teams draft off potential, not production. There is little he could have done next year to change their opinion on his potential, making those percentages you stated unrealistically optimistic. He couldn't have improved his value enough to justify giving up a year's pay.
Two years is a long time away. I don't think he was prepared to wait that long. He was either going pro this year or next, and this year's draft class was considerably weaker.
Enjoy your time back in your home city.
Congratulations to Darius. Seems like a pretty decent spot for him to be in. Obviously guarateed money would have been preferred, but he's got a shot, so good for him.
Darius succeeding will be good for UM as well when it comes to recruiting and the Beilein sterotypes, so go out and make it happen.
Because we're not impressing recruits with 2nd round dreams.
perfect situation for D-Mo. Goin back home to lead the lakers.....who by the way basically don't have a PG.
I wonder what type offense the Lakers plan on running in the future. Darrius is defintely NOT made for the Triangle offense but would be great in pick-and-roll with Gasol or Bynum.
They will not be running the triangle. I have no idea what kind of offense Mike Brown runs, but it seems like the ownership(Buss) wants to return to the style of the showtime era.
No one knows what kind of offense Mike Brown runs.
Would have been nice to have gone in first round, but he'll fit well with the Lakers, play in the playoffs regularly over the next few years and have an opportunity for significant playing time in a couple years. Really couldn't have asked for a better situation from a basketball perspective. Still wish he woulda stayed, but godspeed young man.
if you ignore at least $1 million less per year (at a minimum).
In this deal? Yes. You're right- less money on the front end. Higher potential gains in second deal, though. And first round deals are slotted and, generally, shitty. I believe Lebron was making something like $3.8m a year in salary his 3rd year. . . when he was NBA MVP.
i am a fan of the lakers now
who does he have to beat to make the team?
Former Sparty Shannon Brown, perhaps.
or steve blake? but, blake is more of a shooter.
Brown isn't really a PG. He's played the "PG" role for them, but that was in the triangle when Jackson was coach, and it wasn't really his normal role. He's gotta beat out probably no one, really. I can envision them keeping Blake, Farmar, DMo, and Fisher on their roster. I also think that, frankly, if he can't beat out Blake and Farmar, he probably doesn't have much of a future in professional basketball in the U.S. Blake is not good; he played quite poorly last season. Farmar is athletic and fast, but that's about it. Darius is in a good spot here. He should shoot 1,000-1,500 NBA threes per day between now and whenever the NBA season starts. If he can be even serviceable from downtown, he could flourish for the Lakers. He can run the pick-and-roll, and if he can knock down open 3's, which he'd surely get on a team with Kobe and Gasol, he could really do well for himself this season.
I posted this above, but Blake did not fit well into the triangle offense. I would expect him to make at least a little bit more of an impact than he did last year.
Also Farmar is not on the team, so D Mo only has to beat out Blake, Fisher and maybe Brown.
Yeah- you make good points. I was way off on Farmar. My bad. As for Blake, I always felt like he was a pretty solid defender, but his offensive game was a little weak. And perhaps you're right- the triangle wasn't a good fit for him. Hell, it probably wouldn't be for Darius either, so at least in that regard it will be interesting to see how it plays out. If Mike Brown runs more of a typical NBA type offense (set plays, pick and roll-heavy), it likely plays to both Blake and Darius's strengths.
He'll be fighting Steve Blake for the backup PG and should be able to beat out Joe Smith or Theo Ratliff for a roster spot.
I wish nothing but the best for him. I wish he was getting coached up by Phil Jackson rather than Mike Brown, but oh well. He'll be mentored by Kobe and Fisher. That's gotta count for something.
Only on the court.
Congrats to Coach B for his first recruit getting drafted and to D Morris. Congrats guys!!
Only has to beat out Steve Blake and Shannon Brown once Fisher is gone. Not bad but lost out on millions. Good luck Darius!
Why is that most of us knew he wasn't going to be a first-rounder but nobody around him seemed to know that? I'm not talking about the guy's agent. Beilein had to know. More impartial people around Morris had to know. I realize next year's draft will have more talent. But there's no question he should have stayed in school for another year. He needs more seasoning. Now he's put himself in a pretty dangerous position.
And I'm sure some jerk got in his ear (just like Manny) and told him what he wanted to hear instead of the truth.
I feel bad for him, but he watched this exact same thing happen to Manny and didn't learn from it, so it is really his own fault. I wish him well, but man he has put himself in a tough position.
"Didn't learn from it." What? Manny had a very successful rookie season. The race doesn't end on draft night. That's when it starts.
Harris' draft was a disaster. He was told he was a sure first rounder and then he fell into the 2nd.
The fact that he ended up with a gutted Cleveland team and managed to not only make the roster and contribute doesn't change the fact that declarling for the draft was a terrible decision and blew up in Manny's face., Lucky for him he was able to overcome the odds and actually contribute as a 2nd rounder. Many other second rounders end up in the D-League or as training camp practice players.
There seems to be a general misundestanding of the NBA draft on this board. Going in the 2nd round is pretty miuch never a good thing, but it's doubly bad when you have a young player that is developing and might have been able to improve their draft stock with more college. Anyone who thinks that going in the 2nd round to LA is somehow better than going to ANYONE in the 1st round is completely off their rocker.
Strongly disagree with your last sentence. I think anyone who thinks they'd rather go as, say, the last pick of the first round to the T-Wolves (if they'd traded for it) instead of going to the Lakers in the 2nd round, as a point guard, is hallucinating.
I would guarantee the JB advised him of the risks and probably pushed for him to say. But DMo and his family probably had other voices in their ears.
Why is that most of us knew he wasn't going to be a first-rounder but nobody around him seemed to know that? I'm not talking about the guy's agent. Beilein had to know.
I suggest you listen to what John Beilein said on WTKA today (podcasts here). He certainly did not know that Morris wasn't going to be a first-rounder. NBA representatives had told him that Morris could go anywhere from around 17 to 50. I'm sure he told Morris that there was no guarantee that he'd be a first-rounder. Morris stayed in the draft, which was certainly a gamble--but it's his gamble, it's his life.
And even though he didn't end up being a first-rounder, being the first pick of the Lakers, who clearly coveted him, given that they had him at #19 on their draft board, seems like an ideal fallback position. According to this article, Mitch Kupchak, the Lakers' GM, thinks he has a good chance of making their roster:
"We think, we're hoping both of them can make the team," Kupchak said. "They both are talented enough to make the team."
Kupchak said the Lakers could have room on the roster for Morris and Goudelock because veterans Joe Smith and Theo Ratliff are not expected to return.
...while I think he would have had a superb season next year, I'm not sure that the draft result (2nd round) would have been any different given the projected talent in next year's draft. Better for him to be in a hometown situation with some good mentoring opportunities than be in Minnesota in the 2012 draft as either a mid 1st round or early 2nd round pick.
your last sentence is wrong. 1st round picks are much more guaranteed money; approx $1 million per year for at least 3 years. League minimum is about $500k and not guaranteed. That's what the 2nd rounders will get.
It's only "wrong" from the standpoint that he'd make more money in Minnesota. In all other aspects - including the chance to develop his game with veteran mentorship - playing for the Lakers is preferable.
But mid-round T-Wolves $3 mil guaranteed with another $1.6 3rd year option; 2nd round, under $800,000, nothing guaranteed, but at home with Kobe.
Which would YOU choose?
And I would still pick LA. Did you see what happened to former Syracuse great Johny Flynn tonight? He got traded more than a dot.com stock. Granted, he's a millionaire (I think he got picked right after Rubio in '09 at the 5th or 6th spot) but he's out of the leage by next year. D-Mo may (may) get more of a career in the league by going to a good team.
We'll see what happens.
I completely agree that it's too soon to judge Morris's decision to go pro. The Lakers could be a perfect fit for him. It's clear they coveted him; there are reports that they had him ranked 19th on their draft board. It's unfortunate that the Lakers didn't have a late pick in the first round.
Around $9 mil. So at his current rate, Morris has to stick in the League 10-18 years to make that much, even if Flynn is immediately bounced.
I hope you're not in finances.
I hope you're not in advising athletes. Or finance. Because if you were, you'd likely need to understand the regulatory structure of the regime under which your client was employed. The NBA minimum salary increases each year a guy is in the league for that guy, and that number increases (like compounding interest, in a way) each year as well. Further, if a guy is in the league "10-18 years," it means, practically, he's gotten numerous guaranteed deals in free agency and/or when the threat of free agency was looming and he re-signed. Show me a guy who's been in the NBA 10 years- the past 10 years, 10 full seasons- who's made only $9 mil. Or, even better, show me a guy who's been in the league since 1993 (18 years) who's made only $9 mil. You can't. And that doesn't even account for the rate of salary increases in the NBA, which has outstripped inflation by a nearly-quadratic factor.
Flynn will be in it for 30. Neither is going to happen. If you don't understand the ridiculousness of the theory $500,000 > than $9 mil, save your lectures, because you're clueless. (Which I should have gathered when you thought The idea of Flynn getting cut while Darius plays for over a decade was a serious possibility).
Re: lectures, you're the poster who came out with the "you're not in finance" line. Was just reciprocating. I also don't understand why you can't understand why people like me think your oversimplified "$500k < $9m" argument isn't taking into account all externalities and, frankly, doesn't accurately assess the expected future income.
Re: their # of years in the league, that number was used because it pointed out a flaw in your analysis: that there isn't an increasing minimum salary scale per year in the league, that that scale itself doesn't increase, and that any player who plays more than 3 seasons in the NBA plays only for the league minimum in each of his seasons.
And it's just argument for people who were saying "it wasn't a bad decision...see, he's going to make the first round everyone says!" to cover up how wrong they were, even as they still can't admit it. If you really want in depth analysis, check and see how many 2nd round picks stick in the League and get that second and future contracts that makes them big money vs. 1st round picks doing the same. Your hope and logic is based on a 2nd round pick having a better chance of making those future dollars because of who drafted him than the offset of being drafted much higher, but not by your "hometown team". Which the history of the NBA has shown, isn't hardly the case. (Any team that drafts him will think he's a "need". He's not a "best available talent" type. And teams value their first round picks much more than their second, which have less value than the cheerleaders pom-poms to most teams).
Yeah, maybe I'm nuts, but I think that if Morris spends 10-18 years in the NBA, he's gonna make more than $500K a year. Juwan Howard has probably made some good bank in the last 16 or so years in the league.
And could I borrow your crystal ball that tells you what the future rookie salary contracts are going to look like post-lockout? 'Cus I would love to use it for some bets I'm placing in Vegas next week.
Off the top of my head, I believe that Juwan Howard has made roughly $120,000,000.00 in his career.
Damn. $148m in career earnings going into this past season. I was off by a lot. But hell, what's $20m here and there for a guy like Juwan. The Fab Five have collectively made over $300m in the NBA, conservatively.
Most of that came from one contract, when there were no limits?
How is that relevant to the question of "how much Juwan Howard made in his NBA career?". And, for the record, over $40m was made from contracts other than the big contract you're referring to in the approximately 7 years he wasn't on that deal. Still averages well over $5m/year on the non-big deal (which coincided with his prime, mind you). So yeah, still, a shit-ton more than $800k a year that was thrown out there in the strawman argument from before. And that's mostly in 90's-early 00's dollars in a 90's-early 00's NBA with a 90's-early 00's salary cap.
To last in the NBA that long and make that much money? Hint: It wasn't the 2nd round.
Wall Street Journal article from about a month ago provided an estimate of the collective earnings of the Fab Five:
The four Fab Fivers who reached the NBA made a combined $431 million in salary, based on estimates and news reports—$526 million when adjusted for inflation.
For a decade, you're insane. The point was he'd have to work that long at what he's making to earn $9 dollars. Which won't happen.
No. What's insane is you using a word such as "insane" to describe us accurately pointing out the ludicrious logic you employed, turning that logic against you, and then you saying "nah nah nah, you're insane, because I KNOW DARIUS MORRIS'S FUTURE."
You simply can't logically make such a statement. You can, at the very best, look at average career outcomes for guys drafted around his slot, take the career earnings of that cohort, transpose it to account for adjustments in salaries/salary cap, and make some sort of argument regarding probabilities. But, then again, since we're dealing with a single person here, such an argument, though far more logical and rational than your subjective reasoning for which you have (still) yet to provide any basis other than "it's my opinion and some NBA draft 'gurus" agree and he was ONLY taken #41," would still be specious at best.
Or, put more simply: why on earth should any of us believe your subjective opinion more than our own, if we assume that we've all a.) watched every game of DMo's career that was televised (I have; I imagine you have to), and b.) have been watching NBA basketball consistently and regularly for the past 25 years? I'm not trying to predict the future; only you are doing that. I know the limitations of my own psychic abilities. You, too, should try it. The point is, you can't make the statements you're making about his future even remotely as definitively as you're attempting to.
The total history of the NBA and second round draft picks probability of success, just because "he played for my team!!!", and the other is going with the overwhelming evidence that history has provided. And saying he wasn't good enough for the first round was proven true. And those same flaws will probably preclude a long NBA career used as hyperbole that you were apparently confident enough in to take seriously. I mean, the amount of players who go 18 years in the League you can count on your hands....and amount of second rounders? Ha. The point was never that he'd earn 18 consecutive League minimum contracts. It was to point out how much less money he was making by not being a first round pick. And considering the original point had Flynn going from the lottery to being cut after his first contract, I thought just as ridiculous example would be taken as ridiculous. You can project numbers all over the place on what his second contract MIGHT be, but then you'd have to project what a 1st round pick's second contract would be, and how much more money it would likely be for...not to mention the greater money he's already banked.
Tweet from John Niyo:
Darius Morris on ESPN Radio after going #41 to Lakers said of teams that passed on him in 1st round: "They're gonna regret it."
And it doesn't sound like he regrets going pro. I wish him all the best of luck. Hope he proves all the naysayers wrong.
He may not play a lot right away, but my guess is that the Lakers will be very happy with what they have in the not-too-distant future.
I knew how this would play out. I said the whole year that D-Mo better not go to the draft, because he isn't THAT good. But what happens? After a ton of Michigan fans blow him all year, he gets a big head, and thinks he is 1st-round quality. On top of that, his brother really sells him hard on how he'll do really well in this year's draft.
He was in the Ross School, doing well both academically and on the court -- his stock was clearly rising. All he had to do was stick around one more year, and he'd get his BBA and probably be a 1st-round pick after proving that he can do it two years in a row (and Michigan would've been an even better team, thus raising the hype and exposure of Morris). Further, he would've had a great degree to fall back on if he didn't make it in the NBA (cmon, there are only 60 starting guards in the entire NBA, and we can all admit that a lot of them are better than D-Mo). Instead, he has to go and screw it up. I can see Manny Harris staying in the league for a long while, but I guess I'll see D-Mo at In 'n Out sooner rather than later.
One thing to factor in is all of the 1st round talent that did not go pro this year. This was a good year to be in the draft...I also don't agree with your take on Morris's NBA future at all. I think the guy will be doing well in the league ten years from now.
Okay, fine, let's assume that he wouldn't get drafted in the first round next year. He's either drafted in the second round (like he was this year) or goes undrafted. And he has a BBA from Ross.
Either way, the decision to stay in school weakly dominates going to the draft.
Michigan isn't going anywhere.
Um, see my post on the next page. I highly doubt he'll go back to school.
enough to make that sort of prediction about his life.
You "highly doubt it." Are you a personal friend of his? Or making assumptions based on other athletes, generalizing, and then applying that generalization to a distinct individual- Darius Morris? Seems a little presumptuous, no? And nice use of "blowing" in your first comment. Saying that fellow Wolverines were "blowing" Darius Morris. Classy. Spew that shit on MLive, please.
Okay, fine, let's assume that he wouldn't get drafted in the first round next year. He's either drafted in the second round (like he was this year) or goes undrafted. And he has a BBA from Ross.
You seem to be overlooking two issues:
1. Morris was a sophomore. He almost certainly needed two more years of school to graduate, not one.
2. In his chosen profession (basketball), it doesn't matter at all if you have a college degree or not. And if he eventually needs to go into another field, he can go back to school, and will probably get better grades when he doesn't have basketball monopolizing his time.
Picked by a title contender with an aging point guard and no legit backup.
Steve Blake isn't a bad player even if he wasn't very good in his first year in the triangle. In fact I'd say he's a better player than Darius right now. Maybe not potential wise. Maybe.
I know that what you said is a very unpopular opinion on this board, but I absolutely agree with you. I was never a big DMo fan because of the same reasons. FWIW, a few of my fellow students who are big fans of M basketball feel the same way.
You're the kind of guy I like to talk sports with (or anything else for that matter). I hate the Red Sox fans who hate on Teixeira and Jeter, the Yankees fans who hate on Pedroia, and the Bears fans who hate on Reggie White. There's no reason that you shouldn't like those guys because of how they play the game and act as people. You can't love a player just because he is on your team, and you can't hate a player just because he's on a different team.
Oh, pull it together already. You guys are acting like he broke up with you.
I can only imagine what Tim Hardaway Jr. could be thinking if he reads this thread and sees you two going on like this about his ex-teammate.
Whether he went to Michigan or not.
He had his moments of being headstrong, which a lot of guys do. He went pro with John Beiein's blessing in a weak draft. He complained that Michigan fans were dogging him for doing what he thought was best for himself, as any student or student athlete would. He went later than he would have liked but he still walked up onto the stage to live his life-long dream (I assume). And yes, Michigan fans are rooting for a guy who did a lot for Michigan basketball.
Here is what Darius Morris owes you: nothing.
I'd plus this 1,000 if I could. The asshattery and lovefest between these two commenters above is nauseating. We get it: neither of you ever liked DMo, and you've found each other. And you feel vindicated now. And you enjoy bashing him. Your assessments are based on subjective opinions. "Bad body language." "Taking shots at Michigan on way out." Sigh. Just admit that he stole your girlfriends and move on. (kidding).
Well, I guess we're each oversimplifying the others' position. I don't think you can call what Darius did "punching us" as a fanbase, really. And yeah, I was oversimplifying your position as well, I'll admit that. When it comes to attitude issues for Michigan's "star" basketball player the past 10 years or so, I don't think Darius comes to mind as an asshole/entitled/too headstrong, really. I guess it's kind of subjective. I feel like, for example, Manny was a lot more of a problem from a leadership standpoint.
I agree with you completely. He was no where near ready. I was also pretty blown away when he walked up to the stage after being taken so late.
What? No where near ready because he wasn't a first rounder? Don't have kids man, your standards are absurd.
Congrats to Darius on a well earned ticket to the Pros.
Actually I think there are some of us on this board that are over 20 years old and remember when you had to be really good to turn pro early. Having one decent year, being a 3rd team all conference player did not constitute being ready for the pro's. You might want to be able to make a jump shot and go to your left before you think about it. If can not get drafted in the first round and what might have been the worst draft of all-time (which is saying someting these days) then you might want to stay in school. I guess those standards are too high!
but i agree with the overall point. another over-inflating of one's talent.
makes me respect guys like tim duncan and jake long all the more; guys who stayed 4 years and could have left early.
Yeah, John Beilein was obviously quite offended by all the lip darius Morris gave him, considering how supportive he's been throughout this whole process. And boy, all the kind things his teammates have said about him must just be covering up what a cancer he was in the locker room.
Without Darius Morris, the team doesn't make the NIT, much less the big dance. And while he might not have gone in the first round, he most definitely should have. Corey Joseph and Iman Shumpert? Those picks were jokes. He will be just fine in the NBa and Michigan basketball will continue its rise thanks, in part, to the momentum he started last season.
Sorry, but you're not one of anybody's favorite Michigan fans.
Hopefully I'll get to see him play out here... he's obviously going to need some work, but I like the pick, as with any luck he'll be able to run this offense in 2-3 years... I like Bilas, but it sounded like he was bagging on Darius for not being Magic... but hell, who is?
I really, really like D. Mo, and while I was disappointed by his decision, I am totally pulling for him. Hope that he puts in the effort in the upcoming offseason and goes all Tom-Brady-I-will-teach-the-rest-of-the-league-for-not-drafting-me-higher-and-then-just-for-good-measure-I-am-going-to-marry-the-hottest-woman-in-the-world.
Why do you "really, really like" D-Mo??? Is it just because he wears a Michigan jersey? Honestly, the dude is overrated.
i don't think he's overrated.
I agree, this is probably where he should've been drafted. Which means that he should've stayed in school.
Why? Guys that come back don't historically improve their draft stock after their sophomore years on a macro level. And next year's draft is going to be deeper.
is there any evidence out there for this opinion? pure logic would say that a person would improve from age 19 to 20.
This topic/phenomen has been discussed by Brian here and by other basketball blogs, including, actually, John Hollinger (who I admit I derided above), in the context of Player Efficiency Rating, a stat that you're likely familiar with. (If not, check it out; it's a pretty good way to measure a player's effectiveness)- here's the study from Big Ten Geeks which supports the frosh-to-soph jump part of what I said above: http://www.bigtengeeks.com/2009/11/they-grow-up-so-fast.html
And a post from this blog that cited it: http://mgoblog.com/category/post-type/tempo-freeeeeeee
In terms of draft position, I'll admit that this is more anecdotal and I can't find a nice breakdown of it. But I have read articles on ESPN Insider (I believe) before which state that, frankly, many guys hurt their stock by returning to school. The problem with me saying "anecdotally" and "many guys" is that, a.) it's hard to truly know where they'd been drafted if they'd stayed in the draft the first time because, you know, they withdrew, and b.) I don't expect you to take my word for it. So I'll have to leave that one unsupported, as I have to go to bed. I did just try to search for it, but couldn't find it, unfortunately. But here's a bit of a question- can you think of a handful of guys who definitively improved their draft stock after returning to school following their sophomore years? Given that the NBA often drafts on "upside" and "potential" and, for awhile there (say, 1999 through when they put the one year waiting period into effect a couple years ago) they seemed to always go for high school/younger guys far more often than older guys (look at some of the first rounds from the last decade). You could say "well, that's because the younger guys were ready," but there were a ton of young guys that were taken on potential and not anything they'd proven (cough, Darko, cough, Nikolez Tshviski or whatever his name was). I realize the counter to this is Emeka Okafor. But for every Okafor, there's a Martell Webster (and Gerald Green, and so on) taken over an Acie Law (I'm using examples here; I don't even know if those guys were in the same draft as each other) or Battier or someone similar. But yeah, gotta go to bed. I realize this second part isn't very convincing.
The latter part of your post is right on. For better or for worse, NBA scouts and executives don't view college basketball as that analogous to the game played in the NBA. Far more than the NFL, they draft on measurables and upside potential. Limited footspeed and lack of explosive athleticism hurt Morris's draft potential far, far more than his sketchy jumper and left hand. And those are things that weren't going to improve significantly. If he was determined to leave early, this was the year to do it. The idea that a better jumper was going to get him into the lottery is just pure fantasy that bears no resemblance to how the NBA evaluates players.
This. (the last part)
I'm not condemning Morris, but it's hard for me to care much about whether leaving was a good decision for his pro career or not. He obviously wasn't completely invested in the program itself. Which is fine - that's how these things work much of the time, and he played some good ball while he was here. I'm just not that interested in Darius Morris at this point, but all things being equal I hope he does well in the league.
Who's he going to marry?
The Lakers just drafted another PG by the name of Andrew Goudelock. He was touted as being one of the best pure shooters in college basketball last year.
Good luck D-Mo
to him. It's not ideal, but at least he has a chance. It's not like there is an abundance of talent in front of him.
I guess I dont harbor the same ill will some folks here do. To hear some of you guys tell it, Morris was the biggest douche in the history of all doucheness worldwide. Yes, UM would have been a helluva lot better with Morris back this season but I'm not going to act like some national travesty has occured. He went pro. He's going to get to play in his hometown for the team he most likely grew up idolizing. I'm happy for the kid. And yes, most of that has to do with the fact that he played for Michigan.
Yeah, there sure are a lot of bitter people on here who think they know what's best for someone else.
A lot of times "someone else" DOES know what's best for someone -- especially when that person is surrounded by people who blew pixie dust up his butt all year. Ever hear of an arbiter; mediator; counselor?
Real shame there are so many "yes men" surrounding these kids who feed them bad intel. A lot of college prospects this year, not limited to Morris, got bad intel telling them they'd go in the 1st round. Many of them dropped, such as Jordan Williams.
That being said, going to reiterate best of luck to Darius Morris, going to give him a chance and see what he can do with the Lakers.
Yet none of us are NBA draft mediators. Just fans that think they know some shit about what goes into this process. He made his choice, and it hasn't proven definitely right or wrong.
Even non-professionals could see him in the first round was a pipe dream. So it should have been really obvious to those who know. Unless, you know, they have agendas that don't involve his best interest, but their own.
You are assuming that he had his heart set on the first round. Perhaps he just wanted to take his shot. Also, who know what those around him actually said? Maybe they did tell him he was second round bound, and Darius was cool with that.
The fact that he didn't go in the first round and wasn't projected to doesn't make his a bad choice. I wish for selfish reasons that he'd stayed, but it's his life, and he knows it 1000x better than I do.
Likely still a second round pick. No harm. Gets better, and moves to first round. Big plus. Gets hurt, but has an insurance policy that covers his meager 2nd round earning, but can get a degree, wash. And if he gets hurt in training camp for the pros, he's basically got the same nothing with less chance to show he's come back after. Doesn't get drafted at all next year, bad, but if he really doesn't get better after another year he's not sticking with a team this year. The only change from his current status is the possibility of making millions of more dollars. If someone is not dissuading you from a decision that at worst has you where you are now, but could make you millions more, you need to to listen to smarter people.
Disagree. Too many unknowns.
"Has an insurance policy"- pays premiums. Who pays them? Likely around $30k for one year.
"Gets drafted next year, first round, gets hurt"- yes. Better scenario.
What about these scenarios:
Comes back, improves marginally, gets better at outside shot, but doesn't make same jump from soph-junior as did from frosh-soph (which follows normal trend). Gets drafted in substantially similar position due to deeper draft. Loses a year of making money.
Comes back, improves more than marginally, gets into the first round. Ends up in a situation where the depth chart isn't as favorable. Flames out. Never makes it, never gets second deal. Guaranteed money? Yes.
Goes pro. In situation ripe for the picking with Lakers. Mediocrity ahead of him on depth chart (Blake, Farmar) with veteran on his way out (Fisher). Good team. Has competition from fellow second rounder. Fails- you're right; no guaranteed money. Succeeds- far higher ceiling. Big 2nd deal. Long NBA career.
The last paragraph, only guaranteed money by being in first round, has successful career- better from the "guaranteed money" standpoint in that it provides a cushion if he blows out his knee during first contract.
Same scenario. Doesn't blow out knee. Trades one year of his career (if we think his body's physical gifts are finite) on the front end at the rookie wage scale for one on the back end. Likely a net loss.
My point is that for all of us (myself included) to make a strong judgment on the wisdom of the move at this particular point is really making a lot of assumptions. I truly think that most guys in his position would rather have a chance at greater success in the long run- which, frankly, he's in with the Lakers- than the guaranteed money on the front end but perhaps a less likely probability of having a career truly flourish. It's kind of a risk-averse vs. risk-neutral argument.
And one more thing: Guys, he submitted his paperwork to the NBA scouting people, and they told him likely late first round to early second. He knew that, Beilein has said he knew that, and, weighing all of the "game theory"-type hypotheticals such as those laid out above, he made his choice. It comes down to how you weigh the probabilities, the risk/reward ratio, etc. Now, I realize that he didn't know when he made the decision that he'd walk into one of the very best situations for a young PG in the NBA. But now he IS in that situation. Even with hindsight, at this point, I can't say I blame him.
Think of it this way: When leaving college or grad school, would you take a guaranteed salary for 3 years at a shitty company, or an at-will gig with an outstanding organization where, when considering long-term probability of great success, you had a much higher ceiling and would learn from great people and be part of a great organization? I would (and have) picked the latter.
Lay out $30k for Sn insurance policy. But nice try.
And if you think being a second round pick that a team has no investment in is a better situation for development than a first round pick that a GM has invested his owners millions and his reputation in, the conversation is over. Whether on purpose or not, you're just sticking your head in the sand to shine a turd.
The fuck they don't. One of my clients actually DOES write these policies and I've represented them and advised them in coverage disputes arising out of such policies. The kids clearly can't pay it themselves; the parents usually take out a second mortgage or equity line on their house or find some other source to pay the premium, such as a short-term promissory note with a relatively high interest rate. It's a highly niche insurance market. It isn't like State Farm is writing these policies; only a few insurance companies feel that they have the expertise to take on such a difficult-to-quantify risk. And when there are fewer companies in a niche market, guess what? Decreased competition, high premiums. That number wasn't arbitrary I threw out above. Think about it this way: without including underwriting costs, overhead, claims handling costs, all other input costs, to make money on such a basket of policies/insurance line, let's say you have only 1 you have to pay out on. Okay, that means you have to have written a minimum of 152 of these policies and collected the premiums (this using that $30k number from above). That's a loss rate well below 1%, which is incredibly low for an insured risk of this type- a type that it's difficult to make money on because of the catastrophic nature of one loss (think of it as something like Excess/Surplus insurance, Earthquake insurance, etc, as in, when there's a loss, it's a big fucking loss- in this case, likely the entire policy limits). And, again, that doesn't take into account the aforementioned costs, which probably mean you need to write another 20-30 of these policies to make up for. Oh, and I almost forgot: legal expenses. Throw in another 10 policies underwritten and premiums collected to cover those.
So now, you're looking at writing what, 200 or so of these policies with only ONE loss to break even? Think about it: how many guys have actually been worth insuring for that amount in the last, say, 5 years? In fact, the premium would likely need to be higher for this to be profitable on a regular basis; the premium I was involved with was from almost 10 years ago. I imagine they're higher now. Also: what if you get hit with TWO losses? Not only do you not make money at all in the above scenario, you're obliterated. Now, of course, you take the premiums and try to invest them so they return at a good rate; that money isn't static, obviously.
Is it starting to make sense? I surmise you can see what I'm saying. It's a numbers game.
Also, why is that the only part you responded to? Do you not agree that we're all making a ton of assumptions in passing these judgments on the decision Morris made?
But if he's being charged that much he A. Should probably be buying through the NCAA and not a separate firm to get the fairest rate possible; and B. there's a reason they only really offer it for guys who are projected to go high. Because they can pay it back. It's not meant for second rounders to cover possible earnings.
And if you want me to go point by point...
What about these scenarios: Comes back, improves marginally, gets better at outside shot, but doesn't make same jump from soph-junior as did from frosh-soph (which follows normal trend). Gets drafted in substantially similar position due to deeper draft. Loses a year of making money. Comes back, improves more than marginally, gets into the first round. Ends up in a situation where the depth chart isn't as favorable. Flames out. Never makes it, never gets second deal. Guaranteed money? Yes. Goes pro. In situation ripe for the picking with Lakers. Mediocrity ahead of him on depth chart (Blake, Farmar) with veteran on his way out (Fisher). Good team. Has competition from fellow second rounder. Fails- you're right; no guaranteed money. Succeeds- far higher ceiling. Big 2nd deal. Long NBA career. The last paragraph, only guaranteed money by being in first round, has successful career- better from the "guaranteed money" standpoint in that it provides a cushion if he blows out his knee during first contract. Same scenario. Doesn't blow out knee. Trades one year of his career (if we think his body's physical gifts are finite) on the front end at the rookie wage scale for one on the back end. Likely a net loss.
So, the first one is part of that risk/reward. He's risking one year at the minimum (and not much of a risk, because odds are greatly for most late picks that they're not getting a second year, no more a second deal) that he could still make after a year in college, because it's not very likely a guy who's drafted that late is going to lose a year of earnings at the end of his career because he's getting old, (he's out of the League because he's not very good) vs. possibly earning 20 times that first contract with his first contract. That you think he likely has a "finite end to his physical gifts", like the passage of time is going to push him out of the League, rather than him not being good enough to play is such a silly presumption. Even good players don't play 15 years and leave as their skills deteriorate. Most are just eventually cut because other players are better. Only really good players and up get to stick around and get pushed out because they've gotten old. I'm not sure second round picks can even be listed in the "good player" category. Some prove wrong; the vast majority fail.
Second, any team that picks a guy who's not a lottery talent is drafting for a position of need. No one is going to stockpile Darius Morris with a lot of PGs just because "he's so good". So any first round team that takes him obviously has a need for a PG (as would the Lakers or Houston in the first round....if the latter thought he was worth a first round pick). And they have then invested lots of money, and the reputation of the GM's draft skills (not to mention a coach) in you succeeding. 2nd round picks and players are traded like water, just as throw in's to make deals work. He could be out of there the first time the Lakers inquire about Howard as a salary throw in that Orlando or whoever else doesn't really want. And unlike the 1st round guy that happens to, his salary isn't guaranteed. The whole idea that you're in a "better situation" to be drafted in the 2nd round is so historically ridiculous, I'm surprised it's getting any traction whatsoever. Better to be not drafted vs. a 2nd round pick? Maybe, in some cases. Than a first rounder? Please.
The idea is you like to throw numbers around, but seem to then think Darius will be the one guy who will defy all the numbers....and you give no reason for it other than "he's playing for a team that can use him". Well, hell, I would hope any team that drafts him thinks they can use him. But they do that with a lot of players, and most of them fail.
Two amens and a hallelujah.
I really don't see the Lakers as being that close-knit lovey-dovey group that you and many others do. There is constant drama: off the court issues; player-management troubles, etc. Sure they win, but where is the recent evidence of developing young talent?
Seems to me the Lakers have consistently traded for more experienced players to get better; Kobe excluded.
since he doesn't fucking play for the Lakers anymore. Does Morris have to beat out Magic Johnson too? There are multiple posters here who are asserting that Morris is very likely to make the cut for the Lakers who don't even know who the hell plays for the team. And Farmar was a starter for the Nets so it's not like he was some unknown player. I think your right about other posters over assuming, but I can't take anything you say about the quality of his situation with LA seriously.
You do realize that removing Farmar as an obstacle (and that's the only incorrect statement about the Lakers roster I've made) actually helps the point I was making, don't you? So now it's him, Steve Blake, the other guy they just took, and Fisher.
There are reports that the Lakers had Morris ranked 19th on their draft board. If they had had a late pick in the first round, it's likely they would have taken him then. Morris going in the first round was hardly a pipe dream.
That is going to take you in the first round doesn't have a first round pick, then yeah, it is a pipe dream.
How do you know that Houston wouldn't have taken him at 23 if they hadn't been able to pull off that trade? Had the draft played out differently, he might have been selected in the first round.
Seem to have a lot of them.
Maybe because they didn't take him when they had the chance in the second round?
You completely missed my point. Houston engineered a draft-and-trade deal through which they obtained a point guard, Jonny Flynn, so they no longer needed a point guard, which is why they didn't draft one. If that deal doesn't happen, maybe the Rockets draft Morris at 23. They were reportedly very interested in him.
You're right, I did. Forgot about the Flynn being the guy they traded for. Although, I think the fact that they traded for Flynn showed that their interest in Morris had waned. It was obvious the moment Rubio signed that Flynn was available, and Houston could have made that trade at any point. I think they made the deal when they realized the guy they would have wanted at 23 wasn't going to be there.
The fact that they traded for Flynn, an underwhelming player and someone they're supposedly already shopping around, instead of drafting a player at the same position tells me they weren't very high on Morris. Add in the fact that Ford had Morris falling all the way to Houston's second round pick, tells me they weren't nearly as high on him as reported earlier.
That's the thing; virtually EVERY NBA draft guru suggested that D-Mo go back to school before he made his decision.
Who? Chad Ford? John Hollinger? They aren't the NBA's scouting service.
Touche. And I think this was the low end of what he was told by the scouting service, but it wasn't completely unexpected based on what they'd told him- I'll agree with that
How would Morris have done better next year? I'm interested in your expertise.
I would've done a thorough analysis if he asked for my advice, which would've followed these lines:
If you go to the draft this year, there is (here's where I'd spend my time researching the numbers):
20% chance you get drafted in the 1st round; get guaranteed money; high probability of playing in the NBA
75% chance you get drafted in the 2nd round; probably make NBA roster; play on the bench for a while, and perhaps get the chance to start a few games down the line
5% chance you go undrafted; play in d-leagues; make minimum wage; eventually fizzle out and work at Ace Hardware or In 'n Out
If you stay in school for 1 year and get your BBA from Ross, there is:
40% chance you raise your draft stock and get drafted in the 1st round; become one of the best Michigan players of all time; get guaranteed money; high probability of playing in the NBA
55% chance you get drafted in the 2nd round; probably make NBA roster; play on the bench for a while, and perhaps get the chance to start a few games down the line; even if you don't you have a BBA and can easily get a high 5-figure job that you'll enjoy
5% chance you go undrafted; play in d-leagues; make minimum wage; eventually fizzle out and work at JP Morgan / Edward Jones / marketing firm, make high 5-figures every year, and enjoy your alternate career.
Once someone has the balls to tell him that, he can make a more informed decision.
and we ain't no gurus either.
Life isn't that easy to pin down...Also, he can't go back to school at Michigan at some point because....?
Sure, he can probably come back (if Admissions lets him); but there will be no support system. No tutors helping him 20 hours a week on his finance homework; 20-year old BBA students won't find a 38-year old guy an attractive group project partner anymore; and once you get out of the "school and homework" mode, it's very hard to get back into it. Just look at all the people who say "I'm going to go work for a couple years, and then I'll go back to college/graduate school". A lot say it, but they get their first pay check and realize that they are free from 5pm on, and realize that going back to school "wouldn't be worth it".
I lived in a dorm with the Kansas women's basketball team for two years. The players get help, yes, but it's also hard to study when you're getting up early in the morning to practice and then doing it again in the afternoon. Also, you have no idea what future Darius Morris's motivation will be. Juwan Howard came back and got his degree.
He's not going to need a degree and will be a millionaire, even if he's playing overseas. Sure it won't be the millions he would have made as a 1st rounder, but it's still nice coin.
That being said, I wish he'd come back, worked on his shot and D and gone late in the first next yr.
"If admissions lets him." Stop. Just stop. Once you're admitted, unless you've been booted from the school for academic or disciplinary reasons, you can go back to get your degree at Michigan. Are all of your assumptions like that one? If so, I'll stop entertaining them.
what say Darius follows his dreams and part of those dreams is completing his degree or not. it may well be his dreams don't meet your expectations.
Morris was only a sophomore. How does he get his BBA by coming back for one more year?
And Darius might say, "Fuck your numbers - statistics are a mundane, and oftentimes detrimental way to sift through life, and fuck JP Morgan - they are a heartless money machine, and there is no way I'd be happy working for them in any capacity anyway. The NBA is my dream, and I want to explore that dream currently, even if it means I'm a second round pick, or that I may have to work at Ace eventually (even though that's a bullshit argument), because I could potentially get injured or encounter one of the myriad of other potentialities that could prevent my dream from taking place, which would be very devastating to me. So I think I'll go now, first round or not. Also, college is just a phone call and an application away, so there's that. Remember when Juwan finished his degree on the road. I could always go back."
I think a lot of alumni who were alive at that time would strongly disagree with your statements about Howard (though I love Juwan and think they- the blue hairs- were in the wrong). I obviously won't comment on your subjective opinions of Morris which I disagree with.
Well, hold on. Were all "blue hairs" who didn't like Juwan's brash, "We Gonna SHOCK THE WORLD" stuff, and his dancing after they advanced to the Final Four (while still on the court) and the trash talking he did....all racist? All of them? Bold statement.
But, you and I are actually in agreement: Juwan was the shit, is the shit, etc. I don't think we can say that everyone who disagreed with us at that time was racist, though.
I'm not sure that a couple of people here understand how being a fan of a sports team works, much less respecting the choices of others.
Erik, I usually agree with you and enjoy your posts, but we simply disagree in this thread. I do understand how being a fan of a sports team works; it doesn't mean supporting everything that every coach/athlete of that sports team does. On this very board we ridicule the OSU fans who state that "Tressel was just trying to protect his players, who he treated like sons" and MSU fans who waive off their players' illegal habits like Denard shrugs off tacklers. Just because I'm a fan of Michigan athletics does not mean that I am not allowed to vocally disagree with D-Mo's decision.
The OSU and MSU situations that you mention just aren't the equivalent of Morris's decision to go pro. The guy made a personal decision about the course of his life. Neither of us knows more about his life than he does. I wish for my sake that he'd come back, but he doesn't owe me that.
FWIW: I hear what you're saying. From the outside (and I can't emphasize that word enough) it seemed to make more sense for him to come back. You have every right to point that out - just keep in mind how much you/we don't know.
The guy made a personal decision about the course of his life. Neither of us knows more about his life than he does. I wish for my sake that he'd come back, but he doesn't owe me that.
FWIW: I hear what you're saying. From the outside (and I can't emphasize that word enough) it seemed to make more sense for him to come back. You have every right to point that out - just keep in mind how much you/we don't know.
Alright, I feel like we are getting back on the same page again. I totally agree with your statement ("from the outside", etc., etc.). But usually "from the outside" IS the reality. Unless we hear differently, that's what we should base our opinion off of. Should we start saying "From the outside, it looks like what Tressel did is bad; but the REAL situation was that some mafia members said that if he told anyone other than Sarniak about the transgressions of Pryor et al, they would come back and use a cheese grater on his players' inner thighs, so Tressel should really be applauded!"?
We've reached an impasse, and I'm too tired to get into a meaningful discussion about the best vantage point from which one can view reality. My final thought is this: there's a subjective element to these types of life choices that can't be treated like just another variable. Darius Morris is Darius Morris, and we can't know some of what he knows about himself. The "rational person" of economics textbooks has yet to be born...Anyway, I've got to get some sleep. Have a good one.
I am happy for his ass even though he shouldn't have left and I said that from the very start. Is he an idiot for leaving yes but not in a literal way. I know he has to do the right thing for him his family, etc. but this is sports. You can speak freely about how you feel but it isn't that literal. People get so squirrely on here especially when someone says something about one of our own players. And we could have frickin been straight next year with him, even though he pissed me off when he dribbled out the shot clock and has no left and no jumper. Ok that's all I have to say about this whole whole d mo leaving to be the 41st pick in the NBA draft. Goodnight.
but i'm not bitter. i am more sorry for him, because i think he left millions on the table. the only consolation imo is that he's going back home.
Lakers need some new blood.
That alone is worth it!!
Also, what is up w/ all these teams drafting foreigners that cant or wont even play over here for a couple years?? You take away all that garbage, and DMo would have been in the top 20.
Best place for him to go though. Fisher is getting old and was quite a liability in the playoffs. Teams will have to guard all five guys on the floor now.
Your telling me the lakers have a better chance of getting a ring in the next couple years than the Heat? You must be trippin.
I concur with the sentiment articulated above. He be trippin' and so forth.
Ugh. Change that horrible thing.
No he won't. I realize it's "cool" to hate lebron but the lakers are heading in the opposite direction of the heat. Lebron will still get his ring before Jordan age wise. Jordan was 28, what a failure.
I realize these kids always have guys whispering in their ears and saying they'll be first-rounders. But jeez. With a good degree of accuracy, the NBA tells players whether they're likely to be first-rounders. Some kids are on the cusp, sure. But Morris should have known he'd do just as well, and quite possibly better, by staying a year and honing his skills. It's really not that complicated.
I wish him well. However, he really should have stayed. I know this was a weak draft, but he was a reliable jump shot away from being a near certain first rounder. I'm not sure he'll have time to develop that before falling into the abyss of the D-league. On the other hand, LA is one of the few franchises that I know of (San Antonio being the other) that are very involved in their D-league teams, so that works in his favor.
Going back home to the Lakers must be a dream come true. Congrats D Mo, remember you're always apart of the Michigan family.
That's a harsh typo.
A Freudian slip?
Son of a bitch. Now I have a reason not to hate the Lakers! Congrats Darius!
Good for Darius. I think with the exposure that the Lakers get, this will help our recruiting as well.
Good for Darius. I think with the exposure that the Lakers get, this will help our recruiting as well.
From a Free Press article:
“I heard my name finally called and it was a relief, but at the same time it definitely put a chip on my shoulder getting picked 41,” Morris said. “That's the story of my life -- never been a favorite but always been one of the best, so I'm excited about the future.”
. . .
“To play for the L.A. powerhouse, I witnessed them do some great things, and never in a million years did I think I was going to be playing for them,” Morris said. “So it's definitely a dream come true.”
. . .
“I put a lot of faith in God because the journey might lead you to a lot of different places that you don't even expect, like the Lakers,” Morris said, sporting a new Lakers hat. “To return all the way back home where it all started for my professional career is crazy. It's mind-blowing.”
"dream come true," "mind-blowing"--sounds like someone content with his decision and looking forward to the future. Isn't that all that matters?
I hate the Lakers, but good for him ... he gets to go home
...home! Work on that jump shot homie!
P.S. This is great. First Jonas now Darius! Awesome!
At first thought, I didn't think the Lakers would be a great landing spot for Darius. After letting it set in, I think he can really prove himself in LA, because, let's face it, as a combo guard in the NBA, it's all about him taking a defender one-on-one, which is his strength. I wish him nothing but the best (obviously), but I also think he's going to have a very nice, if not spectacular, career.
I wish D Mo the best but it’s hard to say that he got bad advice because he NEVER was a sure fire 1st rounder. 2nd round draft picks do not have a guaranteed contract. You do not leave college early to get drafted in the 2nd round, sorry guys; but I gotta believe he just wasn’t being smart.
Take a look at the Pistons draft choices the last 20 years and see how many 2nd rounder’s actually made it
I wish him the best, but still question the decision. As shown by where he was selected, he is an incomplete player and will get no guarantees. Time will tell if his decision was correct.
But as a fan, it's disappointing to me that he would give up the opportunity to achieve the legendary status that would come with winning a Big Ten title. The second round was always going to be there for him whether he stayed or went, but in choosing to leave, it feels to me like he passed on a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Again, that's just the fan in me talking.
The one team I didnt want him to go to. But Good Luck to him and he is back close to his family.
Remember how bad Rondo looked in this year's playoffs trying to play with one arm after DWade bent his elbow? That'll be Morris in the NBA, like, all the time. Good for him, but I think he could have used more time playing down here with the kids.
Seems like he'll get some developmental time, and hopefully he'll improve enough to stick and carve out a career for himself. I'm not an NBA fan at all, but this will increase my level of attention to the league (if only a tiny bit).
in the second round, would he still have jumped? Probably not, but being the first pick of the Lakers might have been OK might have been enough.
Bad, bad decision to leave early. Maybe he can hook up with Ernest Shazor, Donovan Warren, and Manny Harris and start the "Above average Michigan players who left early for crappy draft prospects" club.
Hey, I think Shantee Orr is the president of that club. On a rotating basis with Shazor, though.
A couple items working in favor of Morris here - the Lakers definitely need some young legs behind DFish. DFish in the triangle is basically the initiator of the offense but with a new offense more than likely going to be used this year, they'll probably be looking for some more penetration out of that position. Blake isn't much of a penetrator either. Morris has an experienced, savy professional to groom him in DFish too.
He didn't go in the first round but I think this is a very solid place for him to land.
Wish him the best. Probably was not goung to be a first rounder next year either. The Lakers are a good situation for him
Good Luck Darius! I guess we will never know what could have been. At least he is getting a shot at his dream and will be with a winning team. No offense to Darius but maybe Michigan will have a better year with Darius gone by getting more players involved. Just trying to look for a positive I guess.
In hindsight it was a bad move to declare. As many have said above though, the best team he could have gone to (assuming he didn't go in the first round) is the lakers.
Eh. I mean, I'm glad he's with a hometown team. But the lakers are on a bit of a downward trend and have to play slow with Bynum and Gasol. I guess they could trade one. i think Darius needed to be in a team that can break because he's not going to be great in the half court, at least initially. The Lakers' gameplan is throw it into the big boys or Kobe and have them kick it out for spot-up shooters........
Frankly I don't know that he's better than Steve Blake. Blake is a better shooter and a good floor general. Fisher has at least a year or two left as a a leader type.
Darius has a fight to make the team and another one for any significant minutes. Never mind that he's getting coached by Mike Brown, who I have only seen succeed in an unfathomably uncompetitive eastern conference with Lebron. He is certainly not an up-tempo guy.
Good luck Darius.
If all he wanted was to be drafted in the 2nd round, well he could have had that next year or the year after. He took a huge leap this year and wasn't going to get worse as a player. Yeah, there is always a risk of major injury, but that risk is far lower than the risk of trying to succeed as a 2nd round pick.
The point is, the ONLY reason to leave was for the guaranteed money of the1st round. Leaving for a 2nd round pick? Almost never a useful or good decision. You can develop much more playing 35 minutes a game for your college team than you can in mopup duty in the pros.
Hopefully Morris can make it with the Lakers since they seem to think a lot of him. If they were willing to spend a 1st rounder on him, then maybe they will give him a good shot to stick. But I don't care who he went to in the 2nd round--if you are 2nd round material and clearly getting better every year, you should stay and try to make yourself a 1st rounder.