814 East U

June 12th, 2015 at 1:02 PM ^

how many comments before someone throws out the LB reference...O/U 7.5

In fairness...1) MSU will always be that way. I'm sure Harbaugh doing something this summer will piss them off somehow (e.g. "That Harbaugh thinks he doesn't have to wear shorts when preparing to recruit kids against us?!?!?!?! THAT WONT STAND HERE IN EL!") 2) They have been the better program the last 10 years or so overall so it was a factual statement more or less.

Dawkins

June 12th, 2015 at 1:05 PM ^

8 years, actually, and both programs were dumpster fires for the first 3 years or so of that stretch (Michigan had the RR years, and MSU had regular 7-win seasons, a loss to CMU, and a streak of 4 straight bowl losses). MSU was just the better of two bad teams. MSU has been very good for the past 5 years though, save for 2012.

814 East U

June 12th, 2015 at 1:20 PM ^

Here is the difference...MSU was a glorified MAC school aftter JL Smith. We were a few plays away from going to the national championship in 2006. That is why I said better program OVERALL the last 10 years. They had 7 win seasons but they were basically at rock bottom. We jumped off a cliff.

This isn't meant to be a bash RR/Lloyd/Hoke or to be a MSU drool fest post. Just stating what my view of the 2 programs has been since 2006ish.

Did MSU need us to be bad to be able to get to where they are now? Probably. Do they need us to continue to be bad? No way. They have established themselves enough where both programs can be BIG contenders. Should be really fun and make the rivalry even better. MSU has always been the bigger rivalry for me personally because 1) I wasn't around during the BO-Woody days and 2) growing up in southeast MI subjects you to MSU-UofM a lot more than OSU (peers, family, friends, etc. have MSU or UofM ties somehow). 

Ghost of Fritz…

June 12th, 2015 at 2:29 PM ^

...generous to MSU's current status?

Sure Dantonio is a good coach.  And sure MSU has been good 4 of the last 5 years. 

But the fundamentals assert themselves over time, and MSU just will never be on the level of OSU, Michigan, and Penn State, over a longer arc of time.  MSU does not have the fundamentals (stadium, facilities, tradition, fan base, national brand, $$$, etc.)  to dislodge OSU, Michigan, or Penn State, to become one of the top three programs in the Big 10 over the longer term. 

Dantonio's run at MSU is a bit like Hayden Fry's run at Iowa.  Fry was a very good coach.  He put together some very good teams, and won the Big Ten a few times (after years of Iowa being bad-mediocre), even though the recruiting was not on the level of Michigan and OSU.

But two things happened at Iowa (and will happen at MSU),

First, Fry didnt last forever.  Neither will Dantonio.  Like at Iowa when Fry retired, MSU won't roll double sixes again with whoever replaces Dantonio. 

Second, even while Fry was at Iowa, his record was up and down.  He did not have Iowa at or near the top of the Big Ten every year.  He had plenty of average and below average years too.  And that is because, even though Fry was a great coach and got the most out of the players that he could recruit to Iowa (like Dantonio at MSU), he was at Iowa and, therefore, just could not consistently recruit as well as Michigan and OSU in that period. 

The same fundamental dynamic applies to MSU.  MSU looks to be good again in 2015.  But eventually the fundamentals will assert themselves and MSU will have a few years in the 7-5 or 5-7 range, even if Dantonio stays.

Dantonio derserves a lot of credit.  But at MSU he will always be swimming upstream, and now much more so  than since he arrived at MSU, with both Michigan and Penn State looking like they have stopped hitting themselves in the face and poised to return to the top three of the Big Ten pecking order.

Dantonio will still be a good coach that outperforms the talent of his recruits, no matter what Michigan and Penn State do.  But with Michigan and Penn State both looking to be on the right track, there in only so much room at the top of the pecking order, and it will be very hard for MSU to continue as the 2nd best team in the Big Ten for much longer. 

TL:DR:  MSU's last 5 years is probably the best 5 year run they have had since the mid-sixties with Bubba Smith, etc.  With Michigan and Penn State no longer in self-destruct mode, why would anyone think that MSU's next 5 years will be as nearly strong as the last 5?

 

NittanyFan

June 12th, 2015 at 2:57 PM ^

matter nearly as much in the 2010s as they did in earlier college football eras?  Or have executional elements overtaken structural elements in terms of the predominant drivers of college football success?"

You're right, OSU and U-M and PSU have structural advantages in terms of stadium, money, facilities, tradition, brand equity, et cetera.  And U-M and PSU have executed poorly of late: bad coaching/AD hires, huge scandals, unable to come up with 2, much less 5, competent offensive linemen, et cetera ......

But I don't know: Mississippi schools were ranked in the Top 5 last year, BOTH Baylor & TCU nearly made the college football playoff last year, Boise State has become a legitimate year-in, year-out Top 20 type team, Duke has played in ACC Championship Games, Missouri has played in MULTIPLE SEC Championship Games, Navy has competitive games annually with Notre Dame anymore, et cetera, et cetera ........

Point being, it seems like nearly anyone, if they execute correctly, can overcome their inherent structural disadvantages and not just make it to 7-5 type records, but make it all the way to the near-top of the college football mounatin.  Execution seems to matter more and more (vs. structure) as the years go by.

Once Dantonio is gone, there's no guarantee MSU will make a correct hire.  But as long as he is there, I'm not predicting a downfall.  Even IF U-M and/or PSU start executing better.

814 East U

June 12th, 2015 at 2:58 PM ^

I appreciate the info and the post. Just a few tidbits however.

1) (stadium, facilities, tradition, fan base, national brand, $$$, etc.) I think MSU can match stadium, facilities, fan base, and $$$ for the most part. Probably not national brand but MSU has resources and their AD is one of the best in the BIG IMO.

2) Recruiting is COMPLETELY different today. Just because other schools get better, doesn't mean MSU can't go to any state in the country in 2015 and beyond and get a very good recruiting class. Obviously they need their base of Michigan, Ohio, Etc. but it is definitely doable whereas in the 1970s-1980s not so much to pull kids from very far unless you were ND or a top program.

3) With Michigan and Penn State no longer in self-destruct mode, why would anyone think that MSU's next 5 years will be as nearly strong as the last 5? I think PSU and M will be better but who is to say they will get to where they once were? I can see PSU staying mediocre for a long time and I don't think M will ever get back to winning at the rate of the 90s.

I forsee OSU, MSU, M competing for BIG titles (with OSU winning the majority) with Wisconsin, PSU (or whoever) grabbing one or two out of the blue every once in awhile.

The Mad Hatter

June 12th, 2015 at 3:14 PM ^

There is no earthly reason why OSU should continue to dominate us and the B1G now that we have an excellent coach and AD.

Nearly all of Michigan's wounds over the past decade were self-inflicted and we're just now beginning to stop the bleeding.

I fully expect Michigan to return to being a top 10 team on an annual basis once the Harbaugh train gets rolling.  If Meyer stays on as coach there might be another 10 year war, but OSU isn't going to dominate it.  In fact, I expect Michigan to win more than 1/2 the games.  Starting this year.

webbertucky

June 14th, 2015 at 6:48 PM ^

Based off what exactly? Harbaugh is a great coach, yes. We all know that. But there are a lot of great coaches in a lot of sports. You expecting to win more than half our games against OSU seems ridiculous. Even half of them seems downright optimistic. I would guess maybe 25% of the time we can beat them. They are the national champs after all.

Ghost of Fritz…

June 12th, 2015 at 3:43 PM ^

In response to 814 East U and Nittnay fan, I think both of you make valid points.  It is probaby true that for various reasons CFB of 2015 is not directly comparable to the Hayden Fry era at Iowa, bith in terms of recruiting and structural advantages. 

But that does not make the Hayden Fry analogy irrelevant.  Teams without structural advantages still need a special coach to outperform.  But it is still true that even a special coach faces a harder road at Iowa or MSU than at OSU, Michigan, or Penn State. 

I do not think that Michigan and Penn State no longer in self destruct mode will necessarily have much of a negative impact on MSU's recruiting.  Dantonio will still get the guys he needs for his system. 

My point, however, is that Michigan and Penn State getting their groove back means that MSU will have a lot more competition for the no. 2 spot in the Big Ten than they have had cover the last  years.  Until unseated, OSU is at the top right now.  MSU is the second best team over the least 2 (or more) seasons.  But soon Michigan and Penn State are going to be challenging for that no, 2 spot in a way that has not been the case since Dantonio arrived. MSU will have for the first time in several years some serious challengers for the no. 2 sopt (and if all goes well Harbaugh will eventually have Michigan challenging OSU for the no. 1 spot). 

As far as structural advantages, it is probably not as big of an edge as it was 20 or more years ago, but it still matters a lot, IMHO.  Given Michgan and Penn State's structural advantages, Michigan and Penn State still really do have to be in self destruct mode to be a bad team over a several year period. 

IMHO, that does not hold schools like MSU (even in 2015).  For the MSUs of the world, everything has to line up just about perfectly (guess right on a speculative coaching hire, a handfull of recruits outperform within the first X number of years, major rivals down, etc.) in order to have really good 5 year run.  For Michigan and Penn State the opposite it still true.  The stars have to align in order to be really bad for 7 of the last 8 years (Michigan). 

Sure it is true that some schools without structural advantages have been really good lately (MSU, Baylor, TCU, etc.).  But that has always been true.  In any give 3-5 year period there are always some schools that do not have the structural advantages that outperform.  Right now it is MSU, Baylor, TCU (and a few others).  In a different decade it was Iowa with Hayden Fry (and others). 

Finally, I do believe that Harbaugh very well could get Michigan back to (and even exceeding) the win % of the 90s, if he stays.  No guarantee.  But he's a pretty good bet to get the most out of Michigan's structural advantages.

Think of it this way:  In my estimation, it is more probable that 4 years from today Harbaugh will have Michigan winning 10 or more games per year than Dantonio still winning 10 or more games per year (assuming both stay).

814 East U

June 12th, 2015 at 4:49 PM ^

Fair points for sure. I 100% agree that OSU needs to be dethroned so to speak before you can say M is on their way to the top of the Big. OSU is absolutely rolling right now similar to once Pete C. at USC and Tressel at OSU got rolling except OSU now with Urban may have the best college coach (Pete v. Urban coaching/recruiting prob a wash or slight advantage to PC because of the ridiculous NFL talent that turned out from USC).



MSU is also at the No. 2 spot. I hope JH can get M back to the 2 spot quickly but not this year. He may beat MSU but I think he will need to get one of the young QBs to really develop for M to take off (which will happen under Jim more likely than not). Game managers have worked for MSU and Bama and even M in the past (Navarre and Henne had a ton around them and made plays but I would consider them managers more or less), but IMO Michigan needs to start churning out legitimate NFL QB talent to get to the mountain top and stay there (I don't see M getting the defense talent like Bama does year in year out to be a bandaid to a game manager QB).

rufftime

June 12th, 2015 at 10:55 PM ^

"...why would anyone think MSU's next 5 years will be as nearly strong as the last 5?"

1.  Because their recruiting is trending upwards.

2.  Because they have made and continue to make major improvements to facilities on par with some of the best.

3. Because Dantonio isn't going anywhere for the next 5 years, and he hires exceptional coaches.

4.  Because of Simon and Hollis, 2 of the best (Pres. and AD).

rufftime

June 13th, 2015 at 1:29 AM ^

"...why would anyone think MSU's next 5 years will be as nearly strong as the last 5?"

1.  Because their recruiting is trending upwards.

2.  Because they have made and continue to make major improvements to facilities on par with some of the best.

3. Because Dantonio isn't going anywhere for the next 5 years, and he hires exceptional coaches.

4.  Because of Simon and Hollis, 2 of the best (Pres. and AD).

GoBlogSparty

June 14th, 2015 at 10:44 PM ^

The fact that Texas is the 4th best program in that state and will continue to be in the near future takes the wind out of your "structural advantages" argument. 

Also, to speak about Penn State as some inherent structural power is ignorant at worst, laughable at best. MSU has more national and Big10 titles than Penn State. Scandals aside, Penn State hasn't been relevant on the national stage in 21 years. Hell, by this logic we should all be shaking in our boots because Princeton and their 28 national titles might start taking college football by storm again. 

CRISPed in the DIAG

June 16th, 2015 at 1:01 PM ^

It likely depends at what point in the season UM/CMU matches up.  With Tate going off early in the year, UM probably outguns CMU.  However, it seemed like CMU's defense deteriorated as the year progressed.  I suppose if Tate doesn't cough it up, UM wins.  Lefevour was pretty good at football that year and probably knew what to do with a short field.  

Tater

June 12th, 2015 at 5:37 PM ^

Dantonio and MSU built their program because Michigan temporarily self-destructed.  Now that everyone in the University of Michigan administration and coaching staff is top notch and alums are all "on board" and pulling in the same direction as the coaching staff, Sparty has to work a lot harder to field a good team.

Sparty has always built the "intangibles" portion of their program on the "no respect" card and their tangible hatred for Michigan, but the real reason for their rise was a temporary spike in recruiting.  They also thrived because Pat Narduzzi exploited a gaping loophole in football officiating: if you commit pass interference on every play, no crew is going to be "that crew" which throws a flag on every play.  

I can't see Sparty sustaining their output of the last five years under the current circimstances.  Michigan and PSU are back.  This makes it harder for Sparty to recruit.  It also removes what have been two "auto-wins" from their schedule and replaces them with games that are coin flips in their best-case scenario.  In addition, we don't know how the defense will play without Narduzzi.

I will give Dantonio credit for being a good coach.  I think that will make them a perennial 7-9 game winner, depending upon the strength of their non-conference schedule.  But they will not ever be able to say they are a better program than Michigan.  Michigan's 68-34-5 advantage in the overall series didn't happen by accident.

webbertucky

June 14th, 2015 at 6:55 PM ^

This argument has been destroyed over and over. Every Rich-Rod and Hoke class had better recruiting ranks than the classes Dantonio brought in. So no I do not agree that MSU's recruiting will suffer. Their haul this year is the best it has been in decades! And that is going against Franklin and Harbaugh. Heck they even have some guys who OSU wanted (Layne, Robertson, Chambers, King).

How can you already say that PSU and UM are back? What have they done besides get top coaches? Still takes time for this to happen.

Soulfire21

June 12th, 2015 at 12:58 PM ^

At some point, after sustained success, you can no longer play the underdog card.  The "we're disrespected" angle has worked wonders for MSU for the past few years, but as they achieve more and more respect will they be able to handle it?  Will Dantonio's method change at all?

twohooks

June 12th, 2015 at 1:08 PM ^

From Dantonio to Izzo to everyone else down. From injuries, to self congratulatory empty Final Four trips. "Bo could never win the Rose Bowl" to "Look at all of our Final Fours." These sentences are generally one paragraph apart in any Sparty conversation. 

Dawkins

June 12th, 2015 at 1:01 PM ^

Dantonio is very socially awkward. Recruits say that about him often. He's not good in social situations, and I think its a tall order to expect him to respond with something wity.

Artie

June 12th, 2015 at 1:06 PM ^

Really anything MD says in regard to Harbaugh's comment is going to, at the very least, get nitpicked by Michigan fans. This is about the least controversial thing he could have said. At this point, I'm guessing MD wants to just go about his business and not throw any more gas on the Harbaugh fire.




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NittanyFan

June 12th, 2015 at 1:28 PM ^

reporters and bloggers and fans have a vested interest in stirring up crap.  

Because honestly, what else is there to talk/write about in the dog days of June?

That said, imagine an honest, non-filtered answer: "well, yeah, we ARE the big kid on the block these days!  And we intend to remain so!  But it's nice of Harbaugh to recognize the current reality!"

I'd guess the over/under on this thread would be 750 responses within 2 hours.  Plus 2 Freep articles, 2 Detroit News articles, a mention on College Football Live on ESPN, ...............

LSAClassOf2000

June 12th, 2015 at 1:27 PM ^

It is hard for the following to be controversial:

"Well, that was awful nice of him."

That might be one of the few times that Dantonio has ever been quoted here responding to a statement in a way that most people likely would. He is - as others have pointed out - a man of few words in social settings, it seems. Awkward, strange words on occasion, but not many of them. 

Larry Appleton

June 12th, 2015 at 1:21 PM ^

We can knock his "everybody disrespects us" attitude all we want, but thus far it seems to have worked for him. Michael Jordan had a similar attitude.

Granted, Michael Jordan is and has always been a massive prick off the court. The same can probably be said for Dantonio.

Darker Blue

June 12th, 2015 at 1:21 PM ^

Mork Dan7onio is such a fucking tool. 

seriously I've never hated a head coach as much as I hate that guy. 

Okay maybe I hated Danny Hope that much too. 

Farnn

June 12th, 2015 at 1:26 PM ^

I can totally see Harbaugh realizing that Dantonio's whole schtick is being the disrespected underdog and intentionally giving him tons of praise and absolutely nothing to take offense to just to rob him of that.  Meanwhile doing his poke the bear routine with OSU.

Spunky

June 12th, 2015 at 1:34 PM ^

He had a similar response when told Urban mentioned the Spartans during his SMSB speech. Plus, they all seemed to get along well at the presser.

 

ElBictors

June 12th, 2015 at 1:50 PM ^

I think Harbaugh's approach since day one has been brilliant and so much more strategic than Dave Brandon's sophomoric crap that he fed through Hoke, et al.

The best thing is the guy is a complete enigma.  One minute he's extolling the Spartans for their recent success and the next he's Tweeting about Judge Judy.  He almost eats shit walking up to the podium to be introduced as the HC and drops a perfect one-liner that only He could.  He pokes at OSU and just goes about his business and ....doesnt' give a rat's ass what people think.

I'm not sure Dantonio nor Herb know what to make of him yet either.