Dantonio Angling for His Spot in Playoff
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:01 PM ^
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:04 PM ^
Assuming you get 1-2 undefeated teams, you're left angling a bunch of 1-loss teams that are from better conferences than us.
A 12-1 champion from the Big 12 or Pac 12 is certainly going to get in over a 12-1 B1G champ. MSU probably needs to hope the SEC champ and Pac 12 champ are both undefeated and maybe they can sneak one of the remaining spots from an ACC or Big 12 team
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:27 PM ^
12-1 Sparty does not get in over 12-1 Florida State so I think FSU is already in barring 2 losses. Their big tests were OK State on the road, Clemson, and Notre Dame and Florida upcoming. That's it. (I guess Duke in the ACC championship game!)
The Big 12 is not an automatic over the Big 10.
12-1 Sparty gets in over 11-1 Baylor. Not only has Baylor played NO ONE in OOC (while Sparty played Oregon on the road), Sparty will have played 1 extra week on national TV against what I assume to be at most a 2/3 loss Wisconsin or Nebraska. Wisconsin's schedule is so weak they might not lose again or at most 1 loss. Not that they are a great team. So it will be like #5 Sparty v #15 Wisconsin in the Big 10 CG. Meanwhile Baylor will be at home and out of the national spotlight.
12-1 Sparty and 11-1 Oklahoma on the other hand are a good discussion and will create massive controversy. 11-1 Oklahoma will be sitting at home while Sparty plays in the Big 10 championship game. If Oklahoma's only loss is to say Baylor - then it gets interesting. If it is to Texas Tech or someone like that who can go off for 45 pts on any given night, than Sparty has the better loss and 1 more win.
11-1 Oklahoma AND 11-1 Baylor also brings up all sorts of interesting conversation.
The Pac 12 champion and the SEC champion I think go in unless Oregon loses twice. Stanford already has 1 loss, everyone else is not championship material in that conference (ASU, UCLA, USC). The SEC is not getting in 2 teams - unless Alabama goes undefeated and loses to say a 1 loss Georgia in the championship game. The 2nd team is certainly not coming from the SEC East which is not strong.
Look Sparty right now is the highest rated 1 loss team in the nation. Those wins vs OSU and Stanford brought them the national respect they have been angling for. There are 8 teams ahead of them, and 5 are guaranteed to lose due to head to head competition. They could easily be the #3 team in the nation by the end of the year.
Bottom line - root like hell for Nebraska to beat Sparty in 2 weeks in EL. I dont see OSU going into EL with a QB Narduzzi will terrorize and other than that a road loss to Indiana might be the second best hope for those guys to fall. Any good team in the Big or ACC right now has a massive advanage over the 3 conferences since they have the softest conference schedules with a lot of bad teams. So if you build a top 10 team in the Big 10 you have a great chance to get into the playoffs with 1 loss while your peers in other conferences are facing real teams 4-5x in a year.
Also root for Oklahoma to be undefeated. And Oregon to not lose more than 1.
I am worried.
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:27 PM ^
I think the odds of 2 SEC teams getting in ahead of a 1 loss B1G team is bigger than you think.
The media has factually pointed out how embarassing we (B1G) have been this season. The media won't forget.
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:36 PM ^
NOT if the 2 best teams are both in the West.
11-1 Alabama and 11-1 Texas A&M for example might be 2 of the top 4 teams in the nation. Right?
One of those 2 wont be playing in the SEC championship game since they are both in the west. One will go face say Georgia and win and go to the playoff. So then you are asking voters to take the SECOND place team out of the SEC West who didnt even play in its conference champion game over TWO other conferences champions. That's a tall order.
I'd agree with you if the SEC championship game was 12-0 Georgia v 11-1 Alabama or something. Then say Georgia loss - I can see both being invited. But right now it appears A&M and Alabama (maybe Auburn) will be the 3 best teams in the SEC - South Carolina an Florida and Georgia all look quite flawed.
Also this is the first year of this and there are going to be a lot of politics. Shutting out 2 conferences from the first playoffs just so 2 SEC teams can get in is going to be a tall order. Esecially if you are talking ONE loss teams from the Big 12 and the Big 10. No way. That is different than if Okahoma or MSU were 9-3 and you had 11-1 Texas A&M sitting around behind 11-1 Alabama. I dont see either Oklahoma or MSU having more than 2 losses, and I think one will have 1 loss.
The Big 10 is looked like at a joke but again OSU and MSU have done SOME things out of conference the past half decade. Wisconsin chokes all the time out of conference in their bowls. MSU beat 2 teams the rest of the nation actually considers legit and put on a halfway decent show in Autzen. A 11-1 PSU would be seen with a much different lens.
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:56 PM ^
The committee says that they will take the 4 best teams in the nation regardless of conference or if they are conference champions. They say that they will not place arbitrary limits on who can be in the top 4.
Keep in mind that the BCS through the human polls willed Alabama up to #2 so that they could have a rematch with #1 LSU. Both Alabama and LSU are in the same division. I think it is absurd to say that a conference like the SEC can't have 2 of the top 4 teams in the country in 1 division and the selection committee's guiding principle is to agree with what I am saying.
September 23rd, 2014 at 9:08 PM ^
Again if its 12-0 Alabama losing to 11-1 Georgia in the SEC championship game by 4 pts I would get it. If 11-1 Alabama beats 9-3 Georgia and then 11-1 Texas A&M is sitting home that weekend I dont see how you take A&M over 11-1 Oklahoma or 11-1 MSU. It's one thing to take a CG loser to the playoffs but a team that didnt even qualify for its own conference CG going?
But that's just me. We'll see.
September 23rd, 2014 at 9:18 PM ^
I understand what you are saying, but why couldn't a 11-1 Texas A&M be consdiered "better on paper" than a 12-1 MSU?
If your scenario plays out...
-MSU probably has 3 quality wins........Texas A&M probably has 6 quality wins
-Who had a tougher schedule.....Texas A&M
-Who played in a better conference....TexasA&M
In your scenario, why would you penalize Texas A&M for having its only loss to the team that might be #1 simply because they are in the same division, but be okay with Texas A&M with the same results if they were randomly in another division?
September 23rd, 2014 at 9:30 PM ^
I understand your position as well and A&M might just be 1 of the top 4 teams in the nation. But not having a chance to play in 1 extra game like 4 of the other 5 conferences did to continue to prove their worth against what is most likely a very good opponent should also hurt their case.
And again I think if you freeze out 11-1 Oklahoma AND 11-1 MSU (and MSU would be 12-1 in fact if they win the Big 10 championship game) to take 11-1 A&M is going to be a very hard sell to the nation. And cause a whole lot of uproar.
My scenario I am throwing out is:
- 12-0 or 11-1 FSU
- 12-0 or 11-1 Alabama
- 11-1 A&M (only loss to Alabama) - didnt play CG
- 12-0 or 11-1 Oregon
Eliminated:
- 12-1 MSU (only loss to 12-0 or 11-1 Oregon) - played CG
- 11-1 Oklahoma (only loss to 11-1 Baylor) - didnt play CG
That would be an interesting discussion. Of course this wont be how it ends.
September 23rd, 2014 at 10:22 PM ^
I do agree with you that a 11-1 Texas A&M team in the SEC would have it slighlty held against them for not being in the conference championship game. I don't think it will be a major factor though.
My main point is that I can't see MSU in the very down BigTen hopping at least 2 of the following to make it into the top 4 in your scenario:
12-1 FSU ACC Champ, 12-1 Alabama SEC Champ, 12-1 Oregon PAC-12 Champ, Oklahoma 11-1 B12 Champ, Texas A&M 11-1.....there is no way I see a 12-1 MSU in the top 4 given this scenario...MSU would be #6 on the outside and I think would be in fact behind Texas A&M (who probably would also be out in this scenario, starting a debate for a 6 or 8 team playoff).
September 23rd, 2014 at 11:25 PM ^
So who says Sparty is going to go undefeated the rest of the way and win the Big Ten Championship? There's a lot of football left to be played. I am guiessing they have at least one more loss and take themselves out of the discussion.
September 24th, 2014 at 1:12 AM ^
if two teams make it through the SEC West with only one loss (11-1), I think it's going to be pretty hard to keep one out if the debate is between one loss teams getting into the playoff. I don't know if 2 teams can make it through with only 1 loss. You look at the remaining schedules for the SEC West teams and it's brutal. Arkansas is the only time you can come up for a breath in that division and I think the 'Hogs are improved a little bit this year.
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:56 PM ^
I thought someone from the committee had said they were definitely going to try to get out of putting two teams from the same conference in...not sure where I saw that though.
I think it'd take a undefeated team (presumably #1) losing in the title game to an 11-1 team (almost certainly top 5), putting them both at 12-1 and likely leaving them both in the top 5
September 23rd, 2014 at 9:05 PM ^
Some committee members may "try" to do whatever and they may mean it or not.
The head of the committee has said it will be the best 4 teams period and specifically said that one conference can send more than 1 team, because they are taking the top 4 teams period.
September 23rd, 2014 at 9:13 PM ^
ESECPN
September 24th, 2014 at 12:21 AM ^
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:22 PM ^
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:25 PM ^
If MSU is ranked 5th in the country I won't be relishing in them getting left out. I will be wondering why yet again we aren't in a position to compete with them.
We've become MSU of the 2000s with this comment.
September 23rd, 2014 at 9:05 PM ^
Exactly, these are dark dark times.
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:01 PM ^
I think he has a point. The SEC may take issue though.
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:01 PM ^
the Big Ten is a joke and I'm sure most of the country realizes this.
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:02 PM ^
I know why he's saying it, but I still absolutely agree with him. If you can't win your conference then you shouldn't get a chance to win the national title.
It would have been suspect if Michigan had done it in '06 (though we wouldn't have minded, but we're bias), it was stupid when Bama did it vs LSU despite LSU winning the regular season game at Bama and Bama not even winning their division.
Let the regular season mean something. Conferences are set up to determine a winner, most other teams don't play because there are too many teams. Let the conferences winners determine who the best team is.
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:42 PM ^
The stated purpose of the playoff is to match up the 4 best teams regardless of what conference they are in or if they won their conference.
Assuming the committee stays true to their own professed guiding principle come selection time, I don't see how they could pick the BigTen champion over even the 2nd best SEC team. I hate saying this, but it is true.
If you had to rank the B1G's 5 best OOC wins it would probably be:
1) Indiana over Missouri
2) Rutgers over Washington State
3) Iowa over Pittsburgh
4) Penn State over UCF
5) Wisconsin over Bowling Green ???
This list stinks.
The horrid performance of our conference has tainted us for the season. I don't see how our best will beat out the champions from the SEC, PAC-12, B12, ACC and the 2nd best SEC team.....
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:45 PM ^
I just think how it works is wrong.
A bigger problem than even what I stated is that the selection group isn't picking "the four most deserving teams", but instead, who they consider "the four best teams". It's basically a cop-out for saying "we'll pick two SEC teams because on paper they look good, screw the season and the outcome of games.
September 23rd, 2014 at 9:09 PM ^
But the SEC looks more than good on paper - they have a great recent track record of winning Championships and BCS bowls over the past decade. That doesn't guarantee that they have 2 of the top 4 teams this year, but the perception that the SEC is that strong is grounded in evidence.
September 23rd, 2014 at 9:39 PM ^
And for all the bitching about Alabama getting that rematch with LSU, does anyone claim Alabama wasn't one of the top two teams? The argument can't be whether they were good enough, but whether a probably weaker team was more deserving.
September 23rd, 2014 at 10:01 PM ^
But you can't credit the SEC's track record (which includes other teams in different years) in choosing a team for the playoffs, any more than you can hold the Big Ten's bowl losses against the Big Team champion.
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:05 PM ^
We've got so many issues to sift through right now, this is about 50th on our list of things to worry about. I'm more concered with how we're going to avoid getting shut out when we go up there in about a month.
Either way, their chances went out the window after they got trucked 28-3 in the 2nd half in Eugene.
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:11 PM ^
At one point in the game, the refs flag Sparty for their "40 minutes of unnecessary roughness" on consecutive plays. This backs them up to the 10 and our D holds them. During the punt, the snap is bad and the punter falls on the ball in the end zone. SAFETY! Two points for the good guys.
/sigh
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:13 PM ^
+1. The scary part is, it's come to that. Willie Henry is our leading scorer in non-baby seal competition.
For the rest of you, I'm done thread-jacking now. Carry on.
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:04 PM ^
Sounds like what he should say. Better than saying "we don't talk about that here..."
Not unlike saying 'our goal is to win the B1G...(b/c then we will be in a good position to get other levels of succes)."
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:06 PM ^
The Big Ten including Saprty is god awful. They just lost by 19 to Oregon. the same Oregon team that struggled with Washington State.
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:14 PM ^
to Rutgers. After going 12-1 last weekend, the Big Ten doesn't look nearly as bad as they did two weeks ago. A very low bar, to be sure.
September 23rd, 2014 at 10:21 PM ^
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September 23rd, 2014 at 8:08 PM ^
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:19 PM ^
They don't need to pick Wisconsin, they only need four teams. Every team that year had a loss except OSU (who couldn't go to the post-season) and ND.
So you let in ND. You let in Bama who won the SEC with one loss. You let in Oregon who won the PAC 10 with 1 loss. Then you have your pick of two loss FSU, KSU, Louisville, Northern Illinois, Boise St, or Utah St.
Wisconsin doesn't deserve to go? Fine, pick a more deserving conference champion. But Texas A&M doesn't deserve to go for losing to Bama and not even having to play the conference championship game. Georgia doesn't deserve to go for already losing to Bama on a neutral field. Give another team a shot that hasn't already proven they don't deserve a shot at the national championship.
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:42 PM ^
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:46 PM ^
I was just making a point that with four teams going to the playoff there were other teams to consider other than Wisconsin. I didn't perfectly recall 2012 despite the fact it was only two years ago (getting old or something).
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:43 PM ^
Wasn't that in 2012? The year OSU was banned from post season? Of course Wisconsin is not going into any playoff at 9-3 or 8-4 or whatever. OSU was undefeated that year and would have gone under normal circumstances. In lieu of OSU no one from the Big 10 that year would have been invited.
I dont see any great teams out there and a lot of teams are going to be lose 1-2 games IMO as they play in competitive conferences. Right now FSU and MSU have a big advantage of playing in the 2 crap conferences of the big 5. I see between those 2 teams maybe 3 "tough games" maximum. Oklahoma alone has 3 comprable tough games with Kansas State, Baylor, and Oklahoma State. And all those SEC dudes in the west have a gauntlet to face.
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:42 PM ^
September 24th, 2014 at 1:17 AM ^
Illinois played in the Rose Bowl with 3 losses.
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:12 PM ^
I agree with what he is saying (regardless of his motives and timing).
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:13 PM ^
Can suck a big fat lemon.
Now that I think about it, would his face look any different?
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:18 PM ^
September 23rd, 2014 at 10:18 PM ^
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September 23rd, 2014 at 11:50 PM ^
September 24th, 2014 at 4:52 AM ^
The game is 4 quarters. You don't get to pick and choose which ones make you look good.
September 24th, 2014 at 7:28 AM ^
It says everything you need to know about the Big 10 this season when the 2nd most impressive performance of the OOC season is a 19 point loss on the road. Dantonio can yap all he wants, the Big 10 is not making an appearance in the playoffs this season.
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:31 PM ^
and should be done away with... having certain teams play more games than others in any sort of postseason system (including the current one!) is fraught with problems. There are those who will say you shouldn't reward a team for palying fewer games, but on the other hand, why would you reward a conference champion for playing a lousy "best of the worst" from the other division? It's not really fair either way...
September 23rd, 2014 at 8:42 PM ^
You play everyone in your division. Then you essentially play a non-division schedule. You have this thing called the conference championship, which should serve as essentially a play-in game of sorts.
It's not a whole lot different than the NFL model, sans the wildcard, which IMO is how it should be anyway. I don't want college football to be the NFL. I don't want to feel like a team can lose a couple games and have a shot at a national title no problem. The best part about college football is that absolutely every game may be the difference between your shot at a title or no title. Diluting that would be one of the biggest crimes against "tradition" vs what college football is compared to professional sports and other sports.