than Tennessee is to an SEC crown. And you must win your conference to have any shot at the MNC!
than Tennessee is to an SEC crown. And you must win your conference to have any shot at the MNC!
He had his visits to Tennessee and Michigan State scheduled before he decided to make his announcement. If he cancels his visits now we all know he's going to Michigan, if he just cancels the Michigan State visit we all know he's going to Tennessee. I believe his announcement date is on his high school's homecoming (I could be wrong) which is why he scheduled it when he did. Canceling his visits would take the thunder away from his announcement. So I wouldn't pay too much attention to his visits. We'll find out in a few weeks.
Agreed. The fact that he had these 2 visits set up and then moved his decision date earlier than them following the ND game is why people are optimistic.
Thank you for the dose of logic. I read this entire thread wondering how no one else could have made this conclusion, and there you were at the end, sanity.
As many before me have stated it's pretty apparent that it's tennessee, why else would he schedule an official there after his announcement?
He didn't, he scheduled his visits (to MSU as well as Tennessee), then moved his decision date to before those visits following his visit to UM.
I can tell you here on local radio (Tri-cities Tennessee 90 miles from Knoxville), They are saying it's 60/40 in Michigan's favor...but I guess we won't know for sure until he tells us.
That is soo dumb. If it is between two teams, then it is 50/50. On team or the other. Besides that, it looks like he has made up his mind , which it would indicate 100/0.
you dont get percentages/odds do you?
and strictly speaking with statistics...there is a 100% or 0% probablility of knowing an answer. Its kinda weird, but don't tell that to a statistician
The guy from Vol Nation ? (I think they said that was the name of the publication/site) was interviewed on the Sports Monster and said he felt that Michigan had a slight lead over UT after his visit there. He said he felt Tennessee had a big lead early and that Michigan had made a real push with him. The host asked him to give a guess on what the percentage was he would sign with the Vols and he said 40% and 60% that he signs with Michigan. So he now thinks Michigan has a slight lead.
I'm no Stephen Hawking, but I know if you're choosing between two things , the odds are 50/50.
If said things have equal probability of occuring. The thing with this is its a measurement of the chances that Danny O'Brien chooses either Tennesee or Michigan. If we didn't know any information, except for the fact that he is choosing between the two schools, then yes, the odds would be estimated to be 50/50 due to a lack of information pointing otherwise. However, through interview and various stories, articles, etc. one can make a guess to where he is favoring. If he is favoring a place, then it is more likely that he chooses it. So the odds of him choosing it go up. So if he favors michigan [fingers crossed] then the there would be an estimated 60% chance of him choosing us, and a 40% chance of him choosing Tenn.
Let's hope for our sake it's not 50/50 and that we are favored!
But we dont know what his odds are. So we're basing our odds, on what he chooses, which are his odds. So we have to estimate what the odds of his odds are.
wait... i have a headache now.
that this has to be explained in this much detail on a UM football blog where many claim to be alums/stuidents is astounding to me....This really isn't that difficult to understand is it?
Aren't 50-50? It either rises or it doesn't? (Or, of course, more accurately, we turn, or don't. Though I guess it could burn out. Not sure we'd be there to see it).
Look at it like win probability in ball game. There are 2 options: team 1 wins or team 2 wins. So either team winning is a 50% proposition, right?
In the recruiting realm it's very common to use a percentage estimate of probability, indicating either that a recruit is leaning toward a school or that there are data suggesting that he might be.
Speaking of which, the 24/7 recruiting guy on XM College Sports about 30 minutes ago was asked about DOB. He offered up 55/45 in favor of Michigan, but said he wouldn't be surprised at all if Danny went to UT. But he didn't give much rationale for why he felt that way.
I bought a lotto ticket. Either I will win or I will not.
Alabama will either beat an FCS team or they won't.
Flying Monkeys will either descend from the sky and take me away to a magical realm where pixies abound and calorie-free yet delicious pizza is served at every meal.
Or they won't.
I want to go to there
Seems to me, you're either Ace Williams or you are not.
50/50 that you are Ace Williams, dude.
I think it is 55/55
I love the game that some people seem to be playing. Let me try. Ok, he moved up his announcement to coincide with his high school's homecoming. He goes to a high school in Michigan. Ergo, he's committing to Michigan. Do I win?
Exactly. I used different logic but reached the same conclusion; my logic: homecoming....home....Flint.....U of M Flint....U of M.
homecoming... homecomING... Ing Group's corporate headquarters is in Amsterdam... Amsterdam... weed... Hash Bash... Ann Arbor!
Ann Arbor... Arbor Day... trees... forrest... Forrest Gump... Alabama... SEC... Tennessee
Goddamit, he's going to Tennessee!!!!!
(I hope somebody actually read this...)
Gump played for Alabama... Alabama... Sweet Home Alabama... Sweet Home Alabama was featured in Con-Air... Con-Air... Nicholas Cage... Cage starred in the Rock with Sean Connery... The Rock... HE'S GOING TO CLEMSON
You went one step too far. Clearly you were supposed to stop at Connery and conclude he is going to the University of Glascow and is switching to rugby. He would be a hell of a hooker. Wait....hooker....Craig James....killed 5 hookers....He's going to SMU!
Glascow? Must be an offshoot of GlassTiger....who played with Bryan Adams....who did a duet with Tina Turner....who was in Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome with Mel Gibson.....who starred with Sam Elliot in We Were Soldiers......who starred with Nick Cage in Ghost Rider......who starred with Sean Connery in The Rock....who attended the University of GlasGow.
That was a turrible typo. I still say he's going to SMU!
I would love to have O'Brien, but if he does choose TN, then it's not a terrible loss. We do have both Godin and Wormley, who both are going to play at about 290, and would make fine 3-techs. Not all DT's have to be 300+. It would also leave us room for some of the other prospects that we're after near the end, and not push our class too huge. We're still in it for Garnett, Banner, Diamond (Maybe), Payton, Powe, Darboh, Dunn, Wright. I think we'll be alright.
for Michigan. Think of Danny sitting down with Hoke vs. Dooley and then have Mattison enter the room in your head. I likes our chances. Big Life, Big Stage, Go Blue.
We need DT's in a huge way. Danny has been my #1 on the board since he was a sophomore, when Sam Webb had us salivating over this kid. Last year, when the D line's future looked bleak and our recruiting prowess wasn't lead by the almighty Hoke, i felt Danny was the one local kid who could give our recruiting class a big boost. I want him now more than ever.
Let's be honest. We need DT's in the worst way. We have seen over the years how some tackles or any position for that matter don't pan out. The way Mattison substitutes his lineman and our depth at DT issues makes landing Danny a must. This kid has all the technique already. He will play as a true freshman. And he is Murder's Row on 3rd and long or obvious passing downs. This kid is quick as hell. This compliments Ondre perfectly. We need a rotation. We don't have one.
Also, he's no slouch on run defense. He proves he can hold his ground with any All American O-lineman...watch his camp film. Stout, Nasty, Quick. He doesn't have all the size to make him a 5 star d-lineman but he does have one thing. He knows how to play the game. I'm tired of these so called specimens who have an amazing ceiling but can't bruise their knuckles a bit. Danny knows the game. Look him in the eyes and tell me he isn't a gamer. Good luck even looking him in the eyes.
O'Brien is a must get. Godin and Wormley aren't the same NT as Danny is. We need the Michigan Mauler. I'd be pissed to see him in a Tennessee uniform. He looks the part of Jason Horn or Hutchinson...just plain nasty. Please land the local bully who slaps the shit out of people and steals their lunch money. Put him in a winged helmet and check his gloves for bricks. Hail.
Danny O'Brien plays dirty and would murder someone if he could? Gosh, we don't wanna look like MSU over here with some convicts now!
I joke I joke, but seriously I agree I want O'Brien because he does have a nasty streak, and for him and Pipkins to play side-by-side with the tough nose ball they both play would work very well in favor with the 3 OL specialists we have for coaches.
"I mean, everyone kills people, murders people, steals from you, steals from me, whatever" T. Pryor
Preaching to the choir, Mr. O'Brien.
3 great dline coaches, one of your best friends lining up beside you, all your family close to watch and support you, winged helmets, early playing time, the best of everything college football has to offer, right down us23 from good ole flint, Danny is blue, I can feel it! Hail!
If M gets him great but the 2012 class has TWO projected DT's, Pipkins and Godin, plus possibly one of the DE moving in.
Right now we've got no sure starters. We can hope BWC steps up. We can hope that Washington or Ash step up. We can hope several freshman are ready to start playing significant minutes and we can hope there are no unexspected bad surprises with injuries, attrition or committments. That is an awful lot of hoping. I'd feel better with another very good option at DT
FWIW on Bill King's Rivals Radio show this morning (Sirius 91) a 247 recruiting analyst was taking recruiting questions from callers. Someone asked about Danny O'Brien and the guy basically said Tenn had the early start then Michigan came on hard. He said Tennessee's Midwest recruiter does a great job and that he had been burned before by going against that staff, but then said he still thinks it's Michigan (55-45).
O'Brien and Godin are both from Fenton and Godin has relatives that went to Powers, and they seem to be pretty close friends, I would think that'll work in our favor. Personally, I think/hope he's going BLUE! Also, I do believe with his announcement date set before he Officially visits MSU/Tenn, that UofM would be the leader right now!
O and he goes to Flint Powers, which is actually on the north end of Flint, but he's not from Flint, He lives in fenton which is about 15-20 minutes closer to AA
I'm not sure what the percentage is. Maybe I'll do a research paper on how to research the probablitiy of a player going to one team over going to another team. Through researching how to research I will be able to say, hey, it's like %60 chance obrien goes to one school and %55 chance he goes to a different school than the %60 chance school.