Current BTT Brackets
I don't know about you, but I'm still buzzing from this week of college basketball. Looking at the B1G standings and what that means for the BTT, if the season ended today (not assuming that it will, just looking at the standings today), the best team that M would have to beat is either Nebraska or Ohio St, whoever you think is better at this point. The first time we could see Wisconsin, MSU, or Iowa would be in the championship game. Our side of the BTT bracket woud look like this:
Round 1 (M bye):
#8 Indiana vs. #9 Illinois
#5 Ohio St vs. #12 NW
Quarterfinals:
#1 M vs. Winner of 8/9
#4 Nebraska (!) vs. Winner of 5/12
*By the way, M has potentially wrapped up the #1 seed overall, depending on how the BTT evaluates a record of 2-0 vs. a record of 1-0 (see below). How?
- If M, MSU, and Wisconsin all tie, M has the best winning % against the other two (3-1, vs. Wisconsin's 2-1).
- If M and MSU tie, well, we win that tiebreaker obviously.
- If M and Wisconsin tie, you look at records against common conference opponent by ranking. M went 2-0 head-to-head against MSU, and even if Wisconsin and M finish both at 13-5, going down the tie-breaker list M is 2-0 against MSU and Wisconsin is only 1-0.
- If that isn't far enough (if 2-0 and 1-0 are considered the same, since neither has a loss), M is 1-0 against Ohio St and Wisconsin is 0-1; M is 2-0 against Nebraska and Wisconsin plays them to end the season; M is 1-1 against Iowa and Wisconsin is 2-0.
- I guess, then, if the tie-breaker only applies to losses (i.e. 2-0 and 1-0 count as the same thing), and if M loses the next two, Wisconsin wins the next two, and Iowa finishes ahead of Ohio St, then perhaps we lose the tie-breaker. But that is the only scenario I can come up with where that happens.
It's simple. Don't lose.
we will be the top seed dont need to go through all this analysis good work though
Michigan is locked in at #1. Wisconsin and MSU are probably #2 & #3 is some order. Ohio State, Nebraska, and Iowa are #4, #5, & & 6 in some order. But after that, who knows right now. The second half of the conference is all within a game of each other.
I am hoping Ohio State and Nebraska can pull off the #4 and #5 with Iowa falling to the other side of the bracket at #6.
In terms of records, there are four tiers in the Big Ten right now (before the Sunday games are in).
Tier 1: Michigan (13-3)
Tier 2: MSU (11-5) & Wisconsin (10-5)
Tier 3: OSU (9-7), Nebraska (9-7), & Iowa (8-7)
Tier 4: Minnesota (7-10), Indiana (6-9), Illinois (6-10), Purdue (5-10), Penn State (5-10), Northwestern (5-11)
We'll probably have to wait until next weekend to really have a good feel for how this shakes out. These teams are really clumped together (except for maybe the top 3).
Right now anyway, if you based the seed projections on the current estimated odds of winning out for each team as well as current overall record, which seems like a relatively good indicator with so few games left (2-3 for each team - wouldn't recommend this method early in the season, of course), you would get the following estimate for a top six right now:
1) Michigan
2) Wisconsin
3) Michigan State
4) Ohio State
5) Nebraska
6) Iowa
Wisconsin is 10-5, but with nearly a 50% estimated chance of winning out, which means a max. ceiling of 13-5 with a less than 20% chance of going 2-1. Michigan State has only two games left, but their odd of tying at 13-5 sit at only 21.66%, whereas the estimated odd of them going 2-1 are nearly 50%. Ohio State and Nebraska both have 2 games to go, but Ohio State's estimated odds of winning out (11-7) sit at 39.06%, which is just shy of Nebraska's odds of losing out (40.26%)
Again, I wouldn't do this early in the season, but with a narrowing number of possible outcomes now, it seems like a decent estimate.
According to Sports Reference, this has happened three times since the Big Ten Tournament was instituted:
1998-99 Michigan State
2004-05 Illinois
2010-11 Ohio State
More common - slightly - is the situation where one of the teams which won a share of the title has also won the tournament. This has happened four times.
2011-12 Michigan State
2009-10 Ohio State
2001-02 Ohio State
1999-00 Michigan State
In 16 tournaments, the winner has had at least a share of the regular season title 7 times, or 44%.
A 1 or 2 seed has won 13 out of 16, or 81% of the time.
Msu could be fighting for a bye in the b1g tourney if it loses the next two games (at iowa and vs ohio). Likewise, Wisconsin should win at least 2 of the next 3 games (eg W at PSU, W PUR, L at Neb). Then, Wisc would be #2 and as many as four teams could be tied for #3-6.. Two of the four teams would probably get first round byes in the tourney (3rd and 4th seeds), the others would fall to the bottom half of the B!G and have to play a first round game (as 5th or 6th seed).
Since Ohio, Ia, Neb, do not play each other again, up to a four-way tie could be resolved by the head to head records in parentheses
ohio state: 3-2 ( W Neb, L IA, L @NEB, W @IA, W MSU)
IOWA: 2-2 (W Neb, L MSU, L OSU, W @MSU)
NEBRASKA: 2-2 (L @IA, L @OSU, W OSU, W@MSU)
MSU 2-3 (W OSU, W @Ia, L Neb, L Ia, L @OSU)
That would give Ohio a #3 seed and MSU #6. But in this same scenario, if Ohio lost prior to the MSU game, then Ohio would be #6 and MSU #5. Both of them would then be in the bottom bracket of the tourney.
http://www.bigten.org/sports/m.../100606aae.html
http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/100 606aae.html
#5 plays #12 .The winner of that game plays #4 (ie the team that--unlike #5 and #12--is in the top bracket and gets a bye).
You initially said that "MSU is the 5 seed (and) would play whoever ends up as the 4 seed." That is untrue, since--as you now acknowledge-- MSU could lose on the first day.
Your point about which part of the bracket is the top really gets into a lot of fruitelss hair splitting. Not that it matters, but I find it clearer to take the top of the bracket to be the four teams which have byes and the bottom to be the four teams who have to play themselves into the main part of the tournament (along with the teams they beat).
In other words, all the teams that have to play on day one are in a separate and lower category. These lower tier teams may lose on day one and never get to play any of the 4 top tier teams.
With their loss today, Ohio is eliminated from the above four way tie scenario. But there still could be a three way tie, and if so, MSU loses the tie break. So, MSU could drop to the second tier of teams that have no bye.
Although Ohio can no longer tie MSU, however, the Ohio MSU battle for the bottom bracket next weekend could still be on. Depending on the prior midweek game outcomes, Ohio could send MSU down to a 5 seed or MSU could make Ohio a 6 seed (where it now stands).
Our last two games are against Illinois and IU, and then we will turn around and play the winner of that matchup in our first game in the tournament. Kind of weird, but hopefully we destroy these two teams and have them well scouted.
Since we haven't played Illinois yet and they just beat MSU I guess I'm a little leary. However, Yogi has already owned Stauskas once this year. I dont' want to see it happen again (or twice).
I'm kind of torn about which matchup would be better for us. What do you guys think?
Ohio State has a Top 3 defense nationally and we had no trouble putting up 70 on them. Illinois' offensive/defensive split is reminiscent of Northwestern, although not quite so severe (#198 offense on Kenpom, as opposed to NW's 300+ ranking). Illinois does not scare me. But you never know.
seeding right now couldnt be more ideal.
and if we got to play (and beat) indy, osu, and msu in the tourny it would be like a B1G greatest hits cd for me.
No help from Penn State today
Day-Day Green tweeted that until UM starts hanging banners, MSU still owns the state. Well, we will be hanging the third in three years, so I guess we own it.
He said in an interview last week when Golden State was in town to play the Pistons. Denial is a real bitch.
http://www.mlive.com/pistons/index.ssf/2014/02/draymond_green_insists_i…