Crystal Ballz Projection for 2015 Class

Submitted by alum96 on

Obviously recruiting in the final days is an ever changing event.  Yesterday at this time our "big board" had 15* well known prospects for 4 spots.   Within 18 hours that became 12* well known prospects for 6 spots.

*I included WR Ryan Davis although he is not super realistic, and didn't include WR Auden Tate who is a FSU commit.

So now one might ask what the falling of DE Pickard/TE Snyder to Syracuse/back to Nebraska might mean?  Based on the timing of it, plus the 2 new UM openings all announced in a cluster the bullish take is positive in terms of UM staff telling these candidates their spots were going to other candidates.  It would appear Wheatley Jr. is taking a spot reserved for one of those 2, and other candidate(s) (Clark for Snyder) are out there the staff feels more comfortable with over the past 36 hours.   The bearish take is rut roh raggy.

Crystal ballz can shatter when Harbaugh demands it but here is how it is shaking up.

Player Pick Ballz
TE Clark UMish trending UM
TE/DE Wheatley UM nothing recent
RB Weber UM/OSU 2 ballz to UM since 1/29
WR Davis FL 5 ballz to UF since 1/23
WR Jefferson UM 8 ballz to UM since 1/28
WR Burnett WSU nothing recent
CB Arnette OSU 5 ballz to OSU since 1/29
CB Williamson UF 10 ballz to UF since 1/28
CB Marshall USC All USC
CB Adams UMish 5 ballz to UM btw 1/15-1/21
CB Bush ? No ballz
LB Smith GA massive GA, little movement

 

Hot takes -

Things are starting to look dour on the CB front which is my main worry here.  We need DBs badly, and 2 in this class would be great now that we have 6 spots.  Target #2A Williamson is now being crystal balled to Florida by everyone. Target #2B Arnette is on campus in Columbus and even faithful friend Ace is now crystal ballzing him to OSU, along with Lorenz and others.  Unless Iman  Marshall has given a secret yes this is problematic as all that remains on the board is Rutgers commit Jarius Adams and non offered Markel Bush.

If you take WR Davis and WR Burnette (committed to pass happy WSU) as longshots our known board is only 10 guys for 6 spots with quite a few of those guys heavy leans elsewhere.  This raises the prospect of having to raid a CMU/WMU type player to fill the 5th or 6th spot unless some serious aces (no pun intended) are up Harbaugh's sleeves. You could take a WR Grant Perry out of Northwestern but he is a WR and we need to end the class with defensive players by need.  I haven't thought banking a scholarship was likely up until yesterday with the 2 new openings and how the board is falling at CB (I assumed Arnette was headed here until yesterday).  Maybe 1 scholarship goes to 2016 class. 

Projected class by ballz:

  • TE Chris Clark
  • TE/DE Ty Wheatley Jr.
  • WR Van Jefferson - has come out of nowhere to be a UM favorite ?
  • CB Jarius Adams
  • (cloudy) Wildcard spot - reserved for homerun candidate like Marshall or Smith.  If miss, then hmm.
  • (cloudy) Wildcard spot - Mike Weber.  If miss, then hmm.

I Like Burgers

January 31st, 2015 at 8:47 AM ^

I'd be fine with banking some scholarships and just extending scholarships to fifth years or walkons. Harbaugh should be able to recruit a ton of talent in 2016. No dire need to take fliers on guys just to fill out the class.

Magnus

January 31st, 2015 at 12:25 PM ^

I'm sorry, but I REALLY don't think you commit four years of a football scholarship to a kid like Markel Bush. If he's worth an offer, then there are a million kids out there worth offers. I've watched his highlight film, and I don't think he would ever step on the field. He's not quick, he's not fast, he's not overly physical, he doesn't have great hips... He's just a guy.

Mr. Yost

January 31st, 2015 at 8:47 AM ^

...obiously, I want more, but trying to be realistic.

RB - Weber (I've explained why)

TE - Clark (I think after all the hype and hoopla, he'll go with Michigan as the best choice for he and his family)

TE/DE - Wheatley Jr. (I don't think we were in it as much as people thought we were when Sr. was hired...I think we've shot up his board)

LB - Smith (I feel lest confident on this one (not Weber), but I'm going to go with the Durkin and Clark connection to get him to Michigan.)

CB - Adams (I want Marshall, Williamson and Arnette like everyone else, but I just don't see it)

...my wildcard is Jefferson. I hope he's blue almost as bad as Weber, Clark, Wheatley and Smith, I think the kid is going to be outstanding. Hopefully he's having an amazing visit and commits to us while in A2.

alum96

January 31st, 2015 at 8:58 AM ^

Wheatley is an excellent poker player and his 247 board reflects that.  Almost his entire board is UM picks from 2013 thru mid 2014 and then it has mostly gone dead.  But there is really no other team since then either. 

Like you I thought he was not heading here at all (go to another school to make your own legacy) even up until last week.  When Pickard's offer went out that was another nail in the coffin as he is basically a poor man's (per starz) version of Wheatley.  But with Wheatley on campus this week, then within days Pickard's ballz all going Syracuse - it would seem that was the trade.  And yes I think without his dad he would not be coming here but frankly it is impossible to tell where he was leaning - again, great poker player.

I have zero insight to Jefferson other than he was a local kid up to 2 years ago, and who is dad is.  But man the picks have been rolling in for him even before he got on campus.  And since his commitment to Ole Miss was so recent he seems like a guy whose mind could change.

I am very disappointed on the Arnette angle - pissed that Urban with his already massive class is coming in late and taking a guy Durkin and Harbaugh targeted.  Durkin has been very quiet in his recruiting period - strangely.  Outside of R. Smith I have not seen what he is doing.

 

Mr. Yost

January 31st, 2015 at 9:09 AM ^

For a guy who was supposed to be "Young Mattison" when it comes to recruiting...he sure has been quiet. 

I put the 7 guys I mentioned into the class calc on 247 and it put us at #20 and well ahead of MSU. So that at least made me happy.

We have no room error though (unless you're counting Marshall, Williamson or Arnette --- all of which I think are longshots so I'm not even looking at them as potential commits and I'm just going to cross my fingers for some blind luck).

No Pickard and No Snyder does make me curious about Heitzman though, I would've tried like hell to keep him for next year knowing he'd probably be better than either Jake or Matt next year and then go get a more highly rated TE/DE guy in 2016.

alum96

January 31st, 2015 at 9:14 AM ^

Yes that is the intrigue here.  No one is saying Heitzman is a star or even starter as DE.  But we have 2 starters on DE and no proven backups.  He was a former starter - not a great one, but a plugger.  If he stays, flips to DE as a backup he gives time for Poggi to ease into the role and he also is there in case of injuries to Charlton or Poggi.  The other side is basically Mario/Marshall at this point - I guess based on his weight he could have backed up the other side too if he was light enough.  But even as an emergency option he seemed like a guy who could contribute.

But the real intrigue is why would Harbaugh want that spot open unless he had a clear plan for the 6th scholarship.  You don't firm handshake a guy just to bank the scholarship.  We'll see soon.

 

Mr. Yost

January 31st, 2015 at 10:04 AM ^

And try to him in the OLB/DE role we recruited Jones for...

I also look at our roster and our coaches and I wonder if we go primarily 3-4...



WDE

1. Taco Charlton (Jr.)


2. Henry Poggi (RS So.)

3. Tom Strobel (RS Jr.)

NG

1. Bryan Mone (So.)

2. Ondre Pipkins (Sr.) / Ryan Glasgow (RS Jr.)

4. Maurice Hurst Jr. (RS So.)

5. Brady Pallante (RS Fr.)

DT/SDE

1. Willie Henry (RS Jr.)

2. Ryan Glasgow (RS Jr.)

3. Chris Wormley (RS Jr.)

4. Matt Godin (RS Jr.)

WOLB

1. Ben Gedeon (Jr.)

2. Michael McCray (RS So.)

3Noah Furbush (RS Fr.) / Chase Winovich (RS Fr.)

ILB

1. James Ross III (Sr.)

2. 
Joe Bolden (Sr.)

3. Allen Gant (RS Jr.)

ILB

1. Desmond Morgan (RS Sr.) / Joe Bolden (Sr.)

3. Jared Wangler (RS Fr.)

SOLB

1. Mario Ojemudia (Sr.)

2. Royce Jenkins-Stone (Sr.)

3. Lawrence Marshall (RS Fr.)

rs: Reuben Jones (Fr.)

Mr. Yost

January 31st, 2015 at 10:12 AM ^

That actually kind of works on paper...

You become thin at ILB, but you have 3 starters for 2 spots and Gedeon could easily slide over if needed giving way to McCray (so Gant or Wangler didn't have to step in). Add a freshman Roquan Smith to that ILB group and this certainly works...on paper.

WDE still doesn't have much behind Charlton, but Poggi should get better this offseason and if you needed to, you split Ojemudia and Wormley at that spot in run/pass situations.

Regardless, it's nice to know that this defense should be flexible enough to provide multiple looks and figure out what works best.

alum96

January 31st, 2015 at 10:26 AM ^

I'd flip Ross outside - he is small and disappears outside as it is when his tackle/DE don't do a good job,; he would get demolished inside.  So Bolden inside as a starter with Morgan then Gedeon and Ross can fight for that outside spot.  Gedeon can also play ILB, in fact that is sort of where I see him - he is a big boy.

Until RJS accomplishes anything on the field I won't count on him to do so.

Other than that it seems ok - not sure how good of a DE Henry is going to be at 300 lbs but I suppose in this formation you are expected to get pass rush more from OLBs than the DEs, or at least 1 of the 2 DEs.

I am hoping Pipkins is a reclamation project of some sort this year and can contribute.  Completely erased by end of last year.

mGrowOld

January 31st, 2015 at 10:35 AM ^

FWIW I work out with one of the Hudson, Ohio HS coaches who has remained pretty close to Gedeon and he told me this week that at the end of the season he was REAL down and confused and wasnt sure if he was going to stay.  He said (and while this is third hand info you guys know i seldom,if ever,  post anything like this) that Gedeon told him he had no idea last year when he would play, how long he would play and what caused him to get pulled when he got taken out of games.  

He hadnt spoken to him since the holiday's thought (pre-Harbaugh/Durkin) so he wasnt sure where his head was now but he assumed (hoped?) it was better.

alum96

January 31st, 2015 at 10:41 AM ^

I was very confused on how they used Gedeon the past 2 years.  I think they burned his RS in 2013 basically to play vs OSU? (I could be wrong)  I expected him to be a big contributor as a rotation guy in 2014 but we basically went to a 2 LB set for 70% of each game - tons of nickel so Ross barely played the first 2/3rds of the year and again Gedeon was not around until late in the season.  Guy is a physical speciman and seems to do well when on the field but just guessesing it seems like Ryan and Bolden got 95%+ of the snaps.

Another weird change from 2013-2014.  Mattison plays so many guys in 2013 - to the point of criticism.  Then he shortened his rotation dramatically in 2014 - again maybe to the point of it being extreme.  Wouldn't have hurt just for "rest" purposes on long drives to take out a Bolden or Ryan for 3 snaps and let Gedeon get those.

I don't know - I just want to forget 2014.  I hope there is no fire to this smoke as Gedeon looks really promising and we graduate 4 LBs after 2015 - he will be the only guy who at this point has ANY real experience in 2016.

Magnus

January 31st, 2015 at 12:03 PM ^

I think a lot of us felt the same way about Gedeon. He would disappear for stretches of the game/season for no apparent reason. I'll grant that he was playing behind a pretty good LB in the form of Jake Ryan, but there should have been some sort of three-man rotation with Ryan, Bolden, and Gedeon each getting time.

Tater

January 31st, 2015 at 8:48 AM ^

The fact that Harbaugh has produced enough excitement to get Michigan in the conversation for some of these recruits, especially this late in the game, is more important to me than who they actually sign for this year.  

Jim Harbaugh has served notice that Michigan is a national presence to be feared again.  Considering the short amount of time he has had to work on this class, that's enough for me.  Whoever signs with Michigan will be a bonus and a pleasant surprise AFAIC.

gustave ferbert

January 31st, 2015 at 9:30 AM ^

of the folks who turned down JH and U of M at this point say to themselves. . ."I wish there was more time."  

 

You can't fault kids for sticking their necks out after being recruited for years in some cases and being asked to change their minds in a matter of 4 weeks. 

Don

January 31st, 2015 at 1:13 PM ^

Again with the "feared" business... Just exactly what has Harbaugh done since he was hired to inspire the "fear" you're alleging? Which coaching staffs are afraid of Jim Harbaugh, and why? OSU? Alabama? Oregon? FSU? Auburn? USC? TCU? Baylor? MSU? Wisconsin?

If you think that the mere fact that Jim Harbaugh is extending offers to kids who have already committed to other programs is making those coaches crap their pants in fear, you're living in a fantasy world. Coaches by nature aren't fearful people; if they were this easily frightened, they wouldn't have gone into coaching in the first place.

There's every reason to believe that Jim Harbaugh is going to be very successful at Michigan, but it won't be because our opponents are afraid. It will be because JH is successful at recruiting, his coaches are successful at developing the talent they recruit, and because JH and his staff are better than our opponents at coaching and planning on game day.

Artie

January 31st, 2015 at 8:48 AM ^

That projected class by balls doesn't actually look that dour. I think that would be a home run class considering the time allotment Harbaugh et al. were tasked with. We may end up taking a flier on a rando DB but that's beside the point. Also someone get alum96 a beer! You've been putting in some serious work into these. Thank you! Tommy likey.




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Magnus

January 31st, 2015 at 8:56 AM ^

The issue is that Harbaugh has been going up against heavy-ish hitters for a lot of prospects. We'll see how things shake out, but Michigan probably needs to go after Indiana, Purdue, MAC schools, etc. to fill out a couple of these spots.

alum96

January 31st, 2015 at 9:06 AM ^

Do you have any names on the radar? Seems difficult to flip guys with days to go that have not been on campus.  After Sunday night Harbaugh can only talk to them on phone/text/DM. 

CMU's class seems open for business since they dont have a coach. 

I guess at a certain level some kids would flip to Michigan sight unseen but even a Purdue guy you'd think would want to interact with the staff at a level other than 1-2 phone calls Monday and Tuesday.

Just peeking at CMU's board, they have 4 guys who are 247 composite 3 stars.

 

alum96

January 31st, 2015 at 1:41 PM ^

Good stuff. I saw the few 3 stars in CMU class and Tyrone Miller was the one CB, and then I saw he was from Saline and on that front without seeing any highlights he seemed like someone to go after if we need to fill a position need at CB.  Ann Arbor won't be any surprise to him.

Sounds like you like him more than Markel Bush ;)

I don't know anything about his football abilities but the 6'2 Beal guy with good speed sounds like the typical MSU DB recruit who they RS and then develop for 2 years and then throw him out as a press corner as a RS SO.  Again don't know a thing about his football game but measurables sound enticing.

I would have to think there are players who might even be better in Ohio who could be flipped, maybe they are projecting to Cincinnati or something similar.  More depth in Ohio of players.

Someone needs to email Chris Singletary.