Crystal Ball Tips

Hey guys. Hope all is well here, and hope you've enjoyed the radio/podcast stuff. (darts talk). It's been a lot of fun. 

I lurk the board relatively frequently still, and noticed some threads being started based on a couple Crystal Ball picks or even one pick in certain instances, so I figured I'd post some pointers for those that do follow it, or want more clarity on it. 

First things first: it's not a perfect tool. It's a great one, and almost always gives an accurate glimpse into a recruitment, but like most things involving recruiting, has its flaws (late flips, uninformed analysts making predictions like the Chris Evans one, etc.). For those of us that take it seriously (most users), it's a tangible way to put our names behind where we think someone will go. A couple quick things I'd consider regarding it: 

1. Our national guys (Steve Wiltfong, Barton Simmons, etc.) won't usually put an initial pick in unless the information is strong in one direction. Steve's prediction on David Long today is a good example. When we expanded the ability to choose to outside sites, it opened up the door for people to make completely speculative picks based on nothing (the Chris Evans pick/thread is a perfect example). Usually the given team writer's pick + national analysts almost always = probably what's going to happen. There have been a few instances (Damon Webb) where that didn't happen, but for the most part it's solid. 

2. We're measured on a couple different thresholds regarding the CB...which are basically the percentage of accurate picks, and the average length (days) our average prediction is worth. So while flipping a pick late to get the pick right does help the accuracy average, it hurts the average prediction length, so we're pushed to get it right as far ahead of the commitment as we can. 

Figured this may give people a better idea on how to view the Crystal Ball going forward and heading into Signing Day. Again, hope all is well here.