I'd say top 15ish but the schedule will be a rough one.
this may be of some local interest
I'd say top 15ish but the schedule will be a rough one.
You obv's didn't factor coaching talent into the equation. :) Hoke+Borges+Mattison= bonus points
They're losing some players according to one fan on another board - But that said, you know Saban has folks lined up. If we can hang with them then we're for sure top 10.
Bama is projected to lose 13 starters. 7 on offense, 6 on defense. That's including juniors who will more than likely go to the NFL such as Richardson, Kirkpatrick, Barrett Jones, Hightower, Lester, etc.
I'm sure their coaches aren't worrying. They'll just oversign like always and kick out the unproductive guys.
We're losing a number of defensive starters.
But the lightning quick way Mattison develops a defense gives me hope. I say we're a top 15 team preseason for sure, but I dunno about top 10. First challenge is to beat Bama.
You're right, our Dline will lose a lot, but yeah, Mattison is on it. As for as preseason ranking goes the first step towards the top 10 is winning your bowl game from the year before, then maybe total returning starters, and a top recruiting class. We should hit all 3 of those. I like to be objective about our team and not overestimate them if I can help it but they gave FSU preseason #6 last year (lmfao) A&M #8 (ow, my side) Virginia Tech #13 (???) and ND preseason #16 (no really, I can't breathe) We deserve top 10 next year way more than they do.
Yes. That is all
With a win in the Sugar Bowl it's a lock. Denard should be the preseason Heisman favorite as well.
But if Ball comes back I would think he's the runaway favorite.
Im sure if RGIII came back he would be the favorite (although I doubt he comes back since hes losing his top receiver)
Ball, Griffin if he comes back, Barkley, Lattimore, Landry Jones, Lamichael James, Mathieu could all be in front of him.
The nature of Michigan's offense won't allow Denard to obtain the flashy stats he needs to win the Heisman. Denard will share total yardage with talented running backs, and someone from another school will put up better stats.
The only possible scenario I see with Denard winning a Heisman is if Michigan is still in the running for the "BCS Championship" when the Heisman voting is done. That way, his leadership qualities and the fact that Denard sacrifices individual stats for the team might be noticed by voters.
are usually the flashiest stats of all. If Denard turns the corner with his arm and turns a few errant picks into Michigan touchdowns then he should be considered. He accounted for 32 td's last season, and 34 TD's this season, if he breaks 40 next year and throws fewer than 10 picks then nobody will be able to match that production. He'll be settled in to the offense from day 1 next year, and Al pretty much knows how to best use him at this point so it seems like this years growing pains should be a thing of the past.
If he can play the way he did for the last two games for all of next year, pretty sure he'd win it.
If Denard can literally replicate the average of Nebraska/Ohio for all of next year (assuming fourteen games), his stat line would look like this:
175/245 71.4% 2,429 yards 35TD 7INT
343 attempts 1,771 yards 5.2YPA 28TD
Hoke wouldn't even let his stat line get like this, because we would be blowing the doors off of every team if it were possible to play like this. Assuming any measure of confidence in the defense, 133 would be arguably the most dominant Michigan team in the modern era.
Well, I thought we were talking preseason hype. I don't see anyone getting near the attention Denard will assuming a good Sugar Bowl performance. If RGIII comes back he'd be the only possible exception... Seeing as how he won this year and all that.
Whether or not Denard will actually win it is another matter entirely. Being the preseason favorite sure wouldn't hurt.
we should be a top 5 team IF we win our games next year. Our schedule is really brutal.
Not to nit-pick, but if they win their games, shouldn't they be a Top 1 team?
well that depends on how many other teams win their games...
An undefeated Michigan with wins over Alabama, @ND, MSU, @Nebraska, and @OSU will go to the title game no matter what anyone else does.
I'm fired up that we're talking seriously about that. It's totally possible. If Denard has offensive success against Alabamas defense (many of those players lead draft boards right now) then nobody will be able to top that. LSU and Bama had a field goal kicking contest and basically "earned" the BSC championship for it.
I can see where you would get that. An 11-2 Michigan returning it's entire Offensive Skill players would definitely be a favorite for preseason hype. And it doesn't hurt we have some defense coming back too so people won't say like "oh they only have 3 returning starters on D"
Hemingway is gone and so is Odoms, so we dont return all the skill guys. But we do get Stonum back hopefully.
Kevin Koger too...but we do get D. Stonum back.
Its going to be a fairly veteran team, so purely from that standpoint (and a second year under DC Mattison - finally consistency on the defensive side), I can see where he is coming from. With that said, top 10 to me says 2 losses at most.
Just looking at the schedule Alabama, Ohio, and Nebraska are "potential" losses. Air Force, Michigan State, and Iowa are "possible" losses. Assuming we win all of the "possible" losses, we would need to win at least one out of three of the "potential" - and that doesn't include some slip up against a team Michigan should beat (see Iowa this year).
Cowherd's been high on UM this year, had Coach Hoke as his #2 Coach of the Year, so I wonder how much of that is a factor.
I'd chalk Notre Dame under possible losses as well. Especially away, and they're looking for revenge after 3 years of frustrating losses.
Luckily they won't have a solid QB (again)
It will be a stressful, gutwrenching game which we will win in the last minute...if recent history is any indication.
Which would definitely be worth a "possible loss" designation. I like our chances, but you gotta hand it to ND that they're a decent squad every year and always a big challenge.
Notre Dame has been "looking for revenge" against their opponents for 15 years now.....
Good catch, forgot about them.
but it will be tough to END the year there .
BAMA in TX
gonna be tough.
Cowherd's a moron, so I'd take his opinion with a large grain of salt. Plus, I don't put too much stock in preseason polls. Denard & Co. will prove their mettle once the season starts.
I was listening to that broadcast too. My first thought was "cool, finally something he says makes sense." Then I continued listening and heard his conversation with Herbstreit and immediately retracted that thought. What a strange conversation that was
he's always like that with KH, and its usually pretty funny. Did you notice Herbstreit laughed when he heard the Ohio "sanctions" like he was a crook getting away with robbing a bank? Even he admits that they were a joke
The NCAA/BCS hype machine will want to have 2 top 10 teams kicking things off in Dallas. I expect Alabama to be #1 or #2 and Michigan to be in the bottom of the top 10.
The only big loss on offense will be Molk because it's hard to replace the best center in the country. Hemingway would hurt a bit if we weren't getting Stonum back. We return 3 of the 5 starters on the line, 4 if you count Schofield and of the 5-6 OL we bring in in this class, I'd guess that one can probably be good enough to start on day one.
On defense, we lose 3/4 of the linemen. All of the other starters return. If our DL is competent next year, I definitely think we can end up in the top 10 at the end of the year. Considering that we have 3 DL coaches, I'd say that's a very real possibility.
Just as a quick aside.....
Is Hemingway getting another year of eligibility? I can't find anthing on the subject.
Thanks, and that's unfortunate.
I hope he gets drafted. IMO, he's exponentially better than his career numbers suggest.
know after the first couple games. Seems we are a bunch on the D line and Molk.
I could see it in terms of pre-season rankings, especially if we win the sugar bowl but the schedule will tough, especially that first game in dallas against bama.
If for no other reason than to make the Bama Game a big ratings getting of course we will be top 10. Bama 1 us 5 sounds about right lmao
Obviously, way too early to tell. On offense, we will pretty much be the same and if Denard can limit turnovers then the sky is the limit for that unit.
On D, we return some great players and some younger guys will be bigger and more experienced. The key, as has been said a million times before, is replacing Mike Martin and RVB. It doesn't matter how good everyone else is, if our D-line is weak it won't matter. William Campbell's development in the off-season is more important than any other players IMO.
Could we not have posts based on what Cowherd says? He angries up my blood.
Sorry couldn't resist.
Someones negging the crap out of the threads today.
Same team Farva!
That seems very, very optimistic to me. Michigan loses the heart of both of its lines.
I guarantee that if we win 11 games we will be a preseason top ten. I'm not saying we deserve to be but the college football world has been waiting for our real return. Plus imagine pre season number one Bama against number nine Michigan kick off weekend.
Michigan loses so much from a team that looked pretty shakey at times. I think we'd be lying to ourselves to say that Team 132, as much as we love them, is as strong as your typical Sugar Bowl participant. I cringe when I think about a bunch of people jumping off of the bandwagon next year as Michigan (perhaps) comes out of the gate losing to Bama and ND. Some people seem to be getting pretty spoiled pretty fast.
An 0-2 start would be disasterous, especially with trips to Nebraska and Ohio State looming. That'd be nearly an 8-4 ceiling to start.
We simply cannot lose to both 'Bama and Notre Dame.
If recent history remains on our side (we're 6-1 against Notre Dame in the past 7 years, their lone win coming in 2008 against our 3-9 team), then hopefully we can fight off the Irish for yet another year. Denard seems to go crazy that game, hah.
Rees has only been playing for two years, and that team has a ton of talent (if you believe the recruiting sites). A trip to South Bend should be no picnic.
Michigan is a season away from having the 100th-whatever defense in the country. This year they started two former walk-ons on D, and Michigan is going to have a hard time replacing one of them (Heininger)...Losing to Alabama in what will nearly be a Bama home game and losing to ND in South Bend will not be a disaster. Michigan could still win the Big Ten - or at the very least beat MSU and OSU.
EDIT: Oops. This was directed to Soulfire 21.
I suppose this is vaguely on-topish, but my roomies and I have been talking about 'Bama for awhile now. They're all cowering in the corner, with one of them proclaiming "I'm not paying for a ticket and flight to watch us get slaughtered by 'Bama."
However, even if we get blown out, wouldn't you rather be playing the best teams out there? I mean, this is Michigan fergodssake.
People should be afraid to play us, and I hope Hoke + Mattison + Borges can make that happen.
Looking at our offense, we lose four starters: Hemingway, Koger, Molk and Huyge. Molk is a major loss, and his replacement will be a step back, maybe two. No doubting this. The rest of the losses are more minor. Hemingway is good, but we get Stonum back, so that's almost a wash. We lose Huyge, but Schofield will likely replace him, and Schofield in 2012 might be better than Huyge is 2011. We'll take a step back at TE, but that wasn't a very productive spot this year anyway. So we have one spot where we lose a star, one spot where we take a minor step back, and two spots where we stay the same. We then have 7 returning starters and returning depth at most spots. Our offense was good this year and should be better next.
On defense, we lose only the three guys on the DL. One will be replaced by Jibreel Black, and the DTs will be a bit more of a platoon than we've had in the Mike Martin era. We'll take a step back at both interior spots, stay about even at the DE spots, and return our entire starting back 7 (assuming T Gordon is a starter, which most of us do). Our back 7 should improve as our youngsters (Ryan, Morgan, Countess and to a lesser extent Gordon) grow both physically and mentally. As long as we find two DTs who can hold their own, our D should also be better than this year, albeit only slightly.
We return all major specialists as well. If we're considered a verge top 10 team now, we should certainly be a top 10 team next fall.
Replacing Hemingway with Stonum is not a wash. Hemingway was the glue that kept the passing game going, the man who turned Denard's jump balls into long gains. Stonum has never shown that ability to make plays down the field.
Koger was a not a major force catching the ball, but you had to account for him, and Michigan will be lucky to get that kind of production out of next year's TEs.
Black and Roh likely cannot play at the same time. Both are WDEs. That leaves the SDE position unaccounted for.
Michigan looks to take a major step back at DT. There is no one on the roster who has shown the ability to even give 75% of what RVB and Martin gave Michigan for the entirety of a game.
The back seven should improve, but they have a long way to go to be players that you can build a defense around. The LBs often looked lost this year, the safeties looked bad at the end of the year, and the corners were wildly inconsistent.
First of all, no team every returns 22 starters, so there are always going to be guys that need to be replaced. Replacing Hemingway (who was solid for us, but not irreplaceably good) with a guy who has been a starter in the past is as good of a replacement as you'll get. I said that TE would be a step back, and it's not like Koger was a game changer - he was also good to very good. He missed blocks, he dropped passes, but he mostly played very well. Moore will not be Koger, but he'll be a starting TE who gets minimal looks.
Your analysis of the defense is overly negative. The three guys we lost were good to great, but give the other 8 guys some credit. The LBs and secodary had growing pains, but you can't have a top-10 defense with just 3 defensive linemen and nobody else. Everyone in our back 7 minus Kovacs was in their first full season as a starter, three of them were in their first season playing college football, and two of those three (Morgan and Countess) weren't full starters when the season began, and Ryan was taking second team reps most of camp behind Cam Gordon. These are guys we can expect a lot of improvement from over one off-season.
I disagree with you that Black and Roh can't both be on the field at the same time. My guess is that one of them moves to SDE, and that might depend on how much weight Black puts on between now and fall. And I think that the best two of BWC, Q, Ash, Pipkins, Wilkins and Rock will make a solid DT duo. They won't be great. They'll be a step back from 2011, no doubt, and will almost certainly be the weakest unit on the team. But there is enough talent there that whoever rises to the top will be worthy of the starting spot.
I was listening to Cowherd here in Dayton on ESPN, and he said we would be in a BCS game next year as well. He said this after saying Ohio fans will be sad because they will not be able to see their team in a bowl next year, while Michigan fans will be watching their fans in a BCS game. I agree with what most people have said that we have a very challenging schedule next year. Playing at Ohio, Nebraska, Notre Dame, and Texas (against Alabama), will not be easy games and no one knows how things will turn out by the time we play any of the teams. Having said that, I think with our coaches and good development we may be able to win all of them.
Preseason Top 10, I take it on account predictions don't mean much. That said, I also predict Justice Hayes to return 10-15 punts and kickoffs for touchdowns.
Ending this season strong with the bowl win coupled with the returning starters and talent makes michigan an easy top 10 preseason pick. Yes we lose practically the entire D-line, but i like what I have seen from Big WIll. Also Row is only going to keep getting better and Black is comming on strong, I think the D-line will be more athletic than this years. The schedule is pretty tough, but we definitely have to potential for an other 10 win season, including a bowl win.