Could DB have possibly done any worse here?
I initially loved the DB hire. He seemed very smart, past success in the business world, former player, said all the right things, etc. Then, when push came to shove, he chased after money instead of maintaining tradition WRT B10 divisions. The day he tried to start pushing UM OSU before the last game of the year was the last day I ever trusted him. He very nearly diminished the importance of the most important game on the schedule and tried to make it palatable to the fanbase. Luckily, we rejected this dose of horseshit.
With his handling of the coaching situation, he has gone from someone I distrust to someone I intensely dislike. Seriously, could he have done any worse here? The choices are clear - hire Harbaugh or retain RR. If he wants H, he should already be coaching here. The backup plan is easy to construct - contact H and see if he's interested. If the answer is yes, then get him in here so he can damage control recruiting instead of acting like our performance in the bowl means a goddamn thing for RR's job security (hint: it shouldn't hold much sway). If H isn't interested, then DB should be frantically conducting a private search for a replacement if he feels RR must go for whatever reason. The moment the replacement is found, make the switch.
If he wants to retain RR (FWIW, my extreme preference), then he is seriously being a goddamn moron. He has unwittingly placed a huge amount of importance on a middling bowl game. Here are the scenarios:
- We lose the bowl game and RR is retained - DB looks weak and people are wondering why in the hell we waited for a data point that apparently didn't matter that much. Fanbase further fractured.
- We win and RR is retained - everything looks consistent, but the team just got weaker due to difficulty recruiting. RR must scramble to fill out the class with a lot of 2nd and 3rd choices. This makes it even harder to win the following year and leaves hypothetical replacement coach with less talent to work with if it comes to that following the 2011 year.
- We win and RR is fired - DB almost can't do this; it would tear the fanbase right in half. You can't give the implicit message of "coach for your job" then fire after a win.
- We lose and RR is fired - looks consistent but gives H less time to put a class together. I don't give a shit what's going on at his current school, if we want him he will pick up and leave immediately, bowl game or not. I give 0 regard to H's "tough situation."
The bottom line is that recruiting is the lifeblood of this program and DB apparently does not realize this. Uncertainty absolutely, positively kills recruiting. The kind of kids we want have a ton of choices in schools and no particular affinity for UM - why would they risk it? We are very close with a number of very critical recruits and they have pretty much no reason to pull the trigger on M at the moment. Meanwhile, Signing Day draws near and other schools' spots are filling up. I'm not freaking out about the Dee decommit - it sucks bad but I learned awhile ago not to place a ton of value in a committment. Our offense will be fine but make no mistake - our RB position just received a downgrade.
Are more decommits on the horizon? Probably. These are the most visible signs of the failures in DB's strategy here. However, I think the true impact will be felt in a way we can't directly quantify - lost committments from recruits that have been or would have been interested in M but for the shadow of the grim reaper that hangs over our program.
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:12 AM ^
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:20 AM ^
After a post that took some time and effort that's the response he garners? Go to bed.
December 3rd, 2010 at 7:26 AM ^
He's right... it should be a diary post
December 3rd, 2010 at 8:27 AM ^
This is what I don't get...
Why not just LIE. Support RR 100%. Say there's no way he's going to be fired this year, or any time in the near future. Crush the rumor-mongerers spirits. Get everyone to give up and support RR. Finish very strong in recruiting.
And then, if you can get Harbaugh, just say you changed your mind and are going in a different direction.
NO ONE WOULD CARE
December 3rd, 2010 at 9:42 AM ^
dp sry
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:13 AM ^
Let's just blame everything on DB. It's unbelievable how irrational people are getting on here. If it wasn't for our fanbase going absolutely nuts in the last 6 days (and really, the last three years) this wouldn't be an issue. Also, he hasn't coached the team. He also hasn't played in the last few years. I'm sure if he could've directly affected the results on the field he would've so he wouldn't have to be in this position. People, relax.
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:15 AM ^
is that he has plenty of data at his disposal to make a decision one way or the other. The longer he waits, the more it fucks over the coach (whoever it is) and the program in general. It's really not that controversial of a position if you actually read it.
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:21 AM ^
But what if the coach in question favors this plan of action?
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:25 AM ^
No, he doesn't have all the data points yet...he wants to see a lot of improvement over the next 4 weeks in practices and in the bowl game. Thus, he needs to keep the pressure on RR and his staff to get the most out of the players. The best way to do that is to hold off on guarantees until after the bowl game.
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:41 AM ^
To be fair, I bought this line of reasoning earlier today-- before the Dee Hart fiasco. Even if he ends up not switching to Alabama, the damage being done to our recruiting so we get "one more data point" is RIDICULOUS.
We are sub-.500 in the Big Ten over RichRod's tenure, but we are fielding one of the most explosive offenses in M history, we have a Heisman frontrunner for next year helming our offense, but the defense and special teams have consistently been a nightmare.
How much does the data really change with one more loss or win? You either believe we can improve or you don't; one more game doesn't tell you all that much, and the cost to recruiting is brutal. DB is acting terribly in this instance.
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:41 AM ^
Adding this amount of stress to a players performance has a very bipolar effect. It can cause dropsies, errant throws, and blown coverages as much as it can heighten focus and performance. Having kids play with their coaches' jobs at stake gives extra motivation, but there's not a kid left on this team that doesn't have 100% motivation anyway. And if there were, dangling this threat wouldn't push them any harder. The crux of your argument is flawed.
With that said, I'm pretty damn sure Rich Rod would have a fire lit under his ass even if Brandon confirmed his tenure for next season... I can't follow your logic at all...
December 3rd, 2010 at 9:00 AM ^
If he really wanted to be Michigan's coach he would start ASAP if you are referring to you know who.
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:18 AM ^
And it's even more irrational to suggest that Brandon changed course because of something the fans did. He's made it clear all season that he is making the decision. The "You can contact me, but you have access to five percent of the information I have" statement should have made that clear.
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:25 AM ^
I'm unsure if you're supporting my position or not. But, I agree with what you said. DB hasn't wavered on what he outlined as his initial plan. I don't think the fans have affected DB's plan of action but we are basically making a mountain out of a mole hill with regards to RR's job status. Our fans have gone crazy recently and have done a total 180 with DB. Apparently we loved him not so long ago but now we hate his guts. C'mon, we're better than that.
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:37 AM ^
I thought you were suggesting that Brandon was all set to announce RR's return, but was swayed by the fans into delaying.
I agree that the board's manic-depressive attitude toward Brandon is silly. It seems to stem from blind loyalty to the coach. Brandon has told us that he attends as many practices, film sessions, etc. as he can. People here heard that and reflexively assumed that this guaranteed that RR was returning - because (so they assumed) surely RR's practices contained evidence of his coaching skill. No one seemed to even consider that maybe Brandon wasn't satisfied with what he saw behind the scenes.
December 3rd, 2010 at 4:41 AM ^
The change in attitude is a result of the way Brandon has handled the coaching situation. Not throwing his full support behind RichRod is a very, very big deal. In sports (or any field for that matter), that amounts to a vote of no confidence and it signals a change is coming. If he wants Harbaugh, I think we can all live with it, but he has to act now. Waiting a month should not be an option, as it will further erode the team.
RichRod has coached 36 games at Michigan and has been here for 3 full years. What more "data" does he need? A good leader is decisive and knows when to pull the trigger. David Brandon is acting hesitant and stubborn, and it just cost us our top recruit. I agree with the original poster - I don't know who in their right mind would commit to play for this team right now, and I imagine just about everyone on the team is considering other options. Our AD doesn't believe in our coach - why should they?
December 3rd, 2010 at 10:08 AM ^
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:21 AM ^
I agree with your rational approach, but is there really anyone on either side really happy with what's going on right now?
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:27 AM ^
Please. Alot of people share the blame for this situation. Martin and Mary Sue for their horrid handling of the original job search; ex-players and alums for not giving RR the support he deserved, RichRod for not having a clue how to properly assemble a defensive staff or the proper defensive scheme for the Big Ten;fans on both sides of the divide for being irrational and presenting terribly flawed arguments over and over again; and lastly, the MSM(but mainly the Freep) for being unethical douchebags who for some reason felt the need to subject RR to scrutiny that one normally sees in political campaigns(Cussing? Really? Really?)
I am so fucking tired of all the bullshit. I really am. I just want to see Michigan getting back to whipping some ass. If that's with RR, great so long he gets a great DC to handle affairs. If its' not, that;s fine as well. I don't care. I just want Michigan to win.
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:36 AM ^
I didn't mean to suggest that the fans made our team mediocre. That's obviously not true and just plain stupid. I'm not saying it's the fans fault for where our program is at the moment. What i'm suggesting is that us fans are creating a perception that things are spiralling out of control (see thousands of threads that include "Harbaugh" or "CC" in matter of days) simply because we're overly passionate and we have absolutely no say in the process. We need to calm down a bit. I'm confident that those people in charge of handling the situation, DB in particular, will handle this well.
December 3rd, 2010 at 1:00 AM ^
Given that we have no say in the process, it's silly to assume that we're somehow influencing it. If Brandon wanted RR to stay, he'd say so. He has chosen not to go that route. We did not push him there.
December 3rd, 2010 at 9:00 AM ^
Thanks, man. There is plenty of blame to go around. And thank you as well for mentioning Martin and Mary Sue at the front end of this three year megadrama. How two people who knew for at least a year they were going to have to hire a new coach and then do a pratfall with the hiring process...that's beyond me. Whatever.
I want to get this right this time. Whether that's keeping RR or bringing in someone else. Brandon has said all along what the process would be, he has not deviated from it, and I suggest we all take a stress tab and let it play out. It may be a bitch to be powerless but we are.
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:33 AM ^
Yes, I blame Dave Brandon completely. Either retaining or firing RichRod would be better for recruiting than this nonsense. If Harbaugh is unwilling to talk about the Michigan job until after the bowl game, to hell with him, and we keep Dee Hart and otherwise strengthen our recruiting profile. If Rodriguez is gone, then Harbaugh gets a head start on wooing recruits to M and doing damage control before the bowl game.
Either way, Dave Brandon has chosen the worst of the obvious options.
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:42 AM ^
It's pretty naïve to assume that we won't talk to Harbaugh until we officially have a vacancy. It's quite plausible that he and DB have already reached an agreement, but that, for differing reasons (for JH, to coach the bowl; for DB, to save $1.5M) they won't announce it until January.
December 3rd, 2010 at 1:02 AM ^
and JH isn't here right now, DB has horribly, horribly mismanaged the situation. Are we THAT weak WRT bargaining power that we would let JH dictate the terms of his arrival like this? I certainly hope not. We have a program to build/rebuild and it doesn't wait for another team's coach to play a bowl game. Or at least it shouldn't.
DB would also be taking a MASSIVE gamble by pretending like the bowl game is an important data point when he in fact already has a side agreement with anothr coach. What if Michigan rolls? What if they knock off an excellent team? Can DB turn around and fire the coach with any credibility after that? Surely he knows this is a delicate sitation with supporters on both sides - if his decision appears disingenuous in one direction or another, one side of the debate will be needlessly enraged to a larger degree than necessary. The more rage, the more the program suffers.
If 1.5MM had any sort of tangible effect on the coaching decision DB should be fired immediately. The future of our program and the marginal negative impacts from the decision to wait greatly outweighs 1.5MM, both in monetary and nonmonetary aspects.
December 3rd, 2010 at 1:11 AM ^
If you want an elite coach (and a lot of people now consider Harbaugh one), you have to play by his terms. No school has the power to dictate to a coach like that when he can arrive. If you're lucky enough to attract his interest, you give him what he wants. If he wants to wait a month, you wait a month. A few weeks of recruiting is not worth more than a coach.
As for the bowl game, it's one game, played a month after the last one and eight months before the next one. It's not enough to make or break a coach. RR has coached 36 games at this school. Game #37 isn't going to make that big of a difference.
December 3rd, 2010 at 9:04 AM ^
Your points are very valid.
Let's assume that Brandon has made the decision to hire Harbaugh.
If you have never negotiated a significant contract, it is not something that typically happens overnight, particularly with a guy like Harbaugh. Due to his now being perceived as an "elite" coach and the siren song of the NFL which draws many successful college coaches away from college football, DB must ensure that Harbaugh hangs around long enough to provide some level of certainty (time) that the program is resurrected to its former status. To me, that suggests a very large damage clause should Harbaugh decide to leave early, along with Harbaugh asking for similar protection. DB and JH are a couple of smart guys - both loyal Michigan men by every stretch of the imagination. That, however, does not mean that they will quickly come to terms.
I am in the camp of those who think that DB made a mistake by saying he would decide at the end of the season. That may not matter with respect to most sports, but football's end of season date and recruiting are inexorably tied together. My guess is that a negotiation is in progress; otherwise, it makes great sense to give RichRod a vote of confidence.
As jmblue noted, if Brandon's data set isn't complete by now, a few more weeks and one more game won't make any difference.
Another point about Brandon - I think he is caught between a rock and a hard place. I believe there is justification for keeping RR as well as a valid argument for going with JH if he is available. I suspect a lot of noise is coming from older alums who provide a ton of financial support to the program. If RR stays, he becomes Brandon's coach. That provides risk if things don't drastically improve, but now it is DB's risk on a bunch of different levels. Lights and amping the band are nothing compared to the coaching decision and Brandon knows it.
December 3rd, 2010 at 1:15 AM ^
I agree with all of CPT Obvious's points. Said almost the same thing in another thread. It is possible that DB has someone else in mind and is working on it. Does anyone know if $1.5mm matters enough for us to wait an entire month with the possibility of losing some top recruits.
December 3rd, 2010 at 4:37 AM ^
that Dee Hart would not de-commit tomorrow? It makes no difference if he fires him now or in January as long as he is actually going to fire him. If he plans on keeping RR then this is a terrible mistake not letting everyone know.
December 3rd, 2010 at 9:03 AM ^
since Dee is going to enroll early. I would want to know who my coach was going to be before enrolling at a school.
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:51 AM ^
You're ignoring what I think is the most likely option, all things considered: Brandon wants Harbaugh and Harbaugh wants to coach the bowl game at Stanford.
If that's the guy Brandon really wants, he shouldn't just say, "Come to Ann Arbor tomorrow or you can't have the job." As I said in the absurdly long Dee Hart thread, the future of the program is a lot bigger than a handful of recruits in one class. If that ends up making the difference in Harbaugh's eventual success or failure (assuming he ends up here), then he probably wasn't a great hire regardless.
My first choice all along has been to keep Rodriguez, but the only reason not to endorse him is to transition to Harbaugh as soon as possible, and if Harbaugh wants that to be Jan. 3 (or whenever Stanford finishes its bowl game), that's when it will be.
Look at it this way -- would it help at all if Brandon came out and said tomorrow "Rodriguez will be fired after the bowl game, and we will begin a coaching search immediately"? No, because the obvious candidate wouldn't be here until early January anyway, and there would be NOBODY to recruit in the interim.
Firing RichRod right now would do nothing positive for the program (at least not that I can think of in my admittedly weak and fatigued mind).
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:58 AM ^
If Harbaugh said "I'll think about it, but nothing for sure til after the bowl game" would you still feel that this is the right move?
December 3rd, 2010 at 1:03 AM ^
I think we can rule that possibility out. There is quite a bit of evidence that he's ready to leave Stanford.
December 3rd, 2010 at 1:19 AM ^
I think we can rule that possibility out. There is quite a bit of evidence that he's ready to leave Stanford.
Yes, the evidence you state is overwhelming.
December 3rd, 2010 at 9:44 AM ^
What evidence? To most of us, there's more evidence that Harbaugh thinks poorly of Michigan than that he's sitting in California with his bags packed waiting on a call from Brandon.
Did he take back that last comment that he would have accepted a Stanford offer over Michigan, had they offered back in the day? Did he take back the utter and complete shit that he said about Michigan not caring about it's players academic careers under Bo? Where is the Les Miles like praise about Michigan coming from Harbaugh?
Right, it's not there.
December 3rd, 2010 at 2:02 AM ^
That's honestly a really tough call. I don't know in that situation ... but I also don't know whom Brandon prefers.
December 3rd, 2010 at 3:10 AM ^
If that were the case, I'd like to think that we wouldn't be debating the issue right now anyway, DB would have already endorsed RR. To me, the only reason DB hasn't endorsed RR is because the decision has already been made and JH is in place -- after the bowl game, which was a condition JH insisted on. All my hypothesis but there's no way DB is waiting for the bowl game to make a decision, it's all a done deal. Evidence? Just the circumstances and my hunch, for what that's worth.
December 3rd, 2010 at 7:43 AM ^
What does it then say about DB's integrity when we obliterate FLA, or Mizzou or OK State, or... in the bowl, only for DB to fire RR immediately afterwards. Doesn't it sort of mean DB was lying about waiting until after teh bowl to evaluate the coach. To me, DB doesn't seem like a guy who would openly and intentionally be caught in a public lie.
December 3rd, 2010 at 9:48 AM ^
"To me, the only reason DB hasn't endorsed RR is because the decision has already been made and JH is in place --"
I agree partly. I think DB wants Harbaugh, Harbaugh hasn't accepted yet, and DB doesn't want to fire Rodriguez unless he is sure he can bring Harbaugh aboard.
December 3rd, 2010 at 10:24 AM ^
He'd accepted the Florida job but coached the Fiesta Bowl against Pitt. Don't see why it's a big issue.
December 3rd, 2010 at 9:03 AM ^
Whether this years class is Top 10 or Top 50, it is more important long term to get the coaching decision right than landing Dee Hart. Sorry but that is true. I hope Brandon's process plays out properly but he has told us how it would come down for months now.
December 3rd, 2010 at 11:02 AM ^
You are absolutely right about getting the coaching sitch resolved. The only explanation for the delay is that DB is looking for other candidates. He's had enough time to evaluate Coach Rod and Harbaugh(the front runner). So, if he wanted either, it should be a done deal. He has to be looking at other candidates for the job. I know some considered Harbaugh elite, but I would not be happy with any coach dictating terms of when they want to coach. Coaching at Stanford is a short term goal, admirable, but coaching at Michigan is the long term goal. DB should know this, you never let employees dictate terms of their employment. If you do, you will lose because that employee will always have the upper leg.
December 3rd, 2010 at 9:34 AM ^
Way to overstate the original poster's position.
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:14 AM ^
My personal tin-hat conspiracy theory is that DB handicapped himself with the msm. After all of those rumors of RR's status coming on the Monday following osu, and DB debunking them, he now has to have a waiting period in order not to look 1) hypocritical, 2) that the msm have such great contacts in the UM athletic administration. Just a wild theory.
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:33 AM ^
Here's my theory. DB has given RR and the athletic department a month to find a DC that has the backbone/expertise to work semi-autonomously alongside RR. Plenty of coordinators and recently-fired coaches out there this year, and who knows, one of them might work out. As long as we're willing to pay top dollar and let him pick assistants, I don't see why we can't get a top-notch coordinator. If not, hey, there's always JH.
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:14 AM ^
While I don't share as extreme of feelings your 1-4 are correct IMO. Contact Harbaugh, offer the job, it's a one time deal. If he doesn't take it, give the vote of confidence and move on. If he says I don't know, then say alright, the offer is off the table and move on. If you are willing to wait, and do even the slightest further damage to a program that is on the brink of disaster, then you have made up your mind to get rid of RR. If you aren't willing to wait, as you shouldn't be, then either Harbaugh will take the job or you move on. I just cannot find a positive out of all of this.
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:17 AM ^
The fan base is going to be fractured no matter what he does. It will only begin to heal once UM starts being UIM again on the field.
I do, however, agree with your basic point. He has made this into a giant CF. I don't like how he has handled it at all.
It is not fair to RichRod at all.
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:21 AM ^
I agree that no matter the outcome, this is very unfair to RR, who has shown himself to be a good man at UM. My own preference would be to keep RR and let him have his players as upperclassmen. But if not, this is a poor way to treat the guy.
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:18 AM ^
I think I've reached my breaking point.
I might just quit MgoBlog.
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:18 AM ^
Given the recruiting disaster brought on by DB's decision strategy, he almost has to fire RR now, regardless of the bowl outcome (I say this as a strong RR supporter). There really are only two reasonable explanations for what is going on right now. The most likely is that DB has decided that a true Michigan man like Harbaugh is in the long term interests of the program and that he has this lined up (and that Harbaugh will not permit an announcement prior to his BCS bowl). The only other reasonable explanation is that DB just does not get it about recruiting. But since he was himself once a recruit, I think this is unlikely and that Harbaugh will now be our new coach. (There is a third option, namely, that we are following in the tortured path Notre Dame has laid down before us, with irrational and emotional decisions governing the program. Please let this not be true for us.)