Alright, I think everyone is intimately familiar with what is happening at the top of the conference in terms of seeding in the tournament. So, what I want to do is talk about seeding for the rest of the conference and what that means for the first and second round matchups.
- Indiana #1 - I think everyone knows this
- Neb #10 - A win and Purdue loss still puts them a game behind
- NW #11 - At 4 wins, there is the potential for NW to tie Neb, but Neb beat them head-to-head.
- PSU #12 - I think everyone knows this as well with them at 2 wins
Win/Lose last game and seed is known
- Iowa #6 - Iowa has tiebreakers over the other teams, so win and they are the 6-seed.
- Purdue #9 - If Purdue loses, they will be the only team with 7 wins and will be the 9-seed.
What I'm really interested in is the second round matchups if Michigan wins against Indiana. If Michigan loses, it's pretty boring. The 5-seed plays PSU in the first round and the 4-seed in the second. So, all of the following scenarios include Michigan winning and won't include the 4 or 5 seeds.
OSU beats Illinois, Iowa beats Nebraska (Most likely scenario)
- #3 Michigan plays winner of #6 Iowa and #11 NW. Iowa has already beaten NW twice, so this likely results in Michigan vs. Iowa.
- #10 Nebraska will play the winner of the Minn/Purdue game. The winner of that matchup will play #2 OSU
- #8 Illinois will play the loser of the Minn/Purdue game. The winner of that matchup will play #1 Indiana
Illinois beats OSU, Iowa beats Nebraska
- #3 MSU (or OSU if MSU and Wisconsin) plays #6 Iowa/#11 NW.
- If Minn beats Purdue, #7 Minn will play #10 Nebraska, otherwise Illinois will play Nebraska. The winner of that matchup will play #2 Michigan
- The loser of the Minn/Purdue game will be #9 and will play #8 Illinois or Minnesota. The winner of that game will play #1 Indiana
OSU beats Illinois, Nebraska beats Iowa
- The winner of Minn/Purdue will be #6 and will play #11 NW. The winner of that matchup will play #3 Michigan.
- #2 OSU will play the winner of #7 Iowa vs. #10 Nebraska.
- The loser of Purdue/Minn will play Illinois in the 8/9 game. The winner of that matchup will play #1 Indiana.
Illinois beats OSU, Nebraska beats Iowa
- #8 Iowa plays the loser of Minn/Purdue. The winner plays #1 Indiana.
- ORGANIZED CHAOS!
- If Purdue beats Minnesota, they will be the #7 seed. If Minnesota beats Purdue, they will be the #6 seed unless Wisconsin and MSU both lose, in which case Minnesota will be the #7 seed. Illinois is the other 6/7 in all of those cases.
- #7 plays #10 Nebraska. The winner of that matchup plays #3 MSU (OSU if MSU and Wisc lose)
- #6 plays #11 NW. The winner of that matchup plays #2 Michigan.
Below is a graphical summary of what I just told you. At the bottom of it, I have removed the possibility of upsets over MSU and Wisconsin just to condense the data a bit.
Edit: Here's a link to a larger version of this so that you can actually read it.: