Computers have us losing to Tennessee
That's all that matters.
That really isn't that great of a success rate. Just picking the higher seeds in the first round should put it at 70%+.
<br>I think Michigan wins easily, just to lose by 8 to Duke.
64.% of the time it works every time.
.....64.5% first round picks is fucking terrible. If I were that bad at picking 1st round games I certainly wouldn't advertise that as a selling point on a website.
how come mine is always on my desk
I guess its a good thing that humans play the game then...
We can kick the ass of any computer!
The Bracket Predictor at ESPN (insider paywall, sorry) has four different models to generate predictions and three of them have Michigan with over a 60% chance at winning.
Ken Pomeroy's model gives us a 57% chance at winning.
We are playing good basketball right now--the only teams that can beat us are the top teams in the country (O-state, Wiscy on a prayer, etc.).
We are one, they have drama.
Yet the experts seem to favor Tennessee. Why? Because we have players like Novak and Douglass starting for us and they have great athletes. It's what drove Billy Beane so nuts about scouts as detailed in the book Moneyball. Baseball scouts would look at how a guy looked in his uniform, on the radar gun, and in the weight room rather than the statistical data that showed proven results from past performance.
Certainly we can lose this game, but I'm just not seeing it.
Sex Panther, from Odeon. 60% of the time, it's correct in it's predictions all the time.
They don't know what to make of the offense yet:
http://tennessee.247sports.com/Article/Basketball-Unique-Michigan-a-cha…;
The thoughtless players are pleased with the size matchup, the thoughtful ones realize Michigan has been this size all year and yet, they made it through the Big Ten and into the dance.
Let me try again -- the data is right but I must have to use the link formatting tool because it is so long:
http://tennessee.247sports.com/Article/Basketball-Unique-Michigan-a-challenge-for-bigger-Vols-18364
The computers do not realize that Beilein's teams regularly outperform their seed expectation in tournament play. Also, they tend to do very well when given extra time (i.e., more than 72 hours between games) to prepare.
I pick Michigan
Suck on that computer
Unless the computer is Watson from Jeopardy I am not buying (that thing knew everything)
I think that this is one of the toughest games to predict because of the inconsistency of Tennessee this season. If the good Tenn shows up to play then it will be a tough game for Michigan - That being said, I think that Michigan will frustrate Tenn's athletes and control the game.
67 - 61 Michigan is my prediction (but then again, I am not computer simulation)
Toronto???
. . .M goes all the way to the Regional final in Anaheim - beating Oakland in the first game, then losing to SDSU on their home turf in the emotional Steve Fisher reunion Final Game.
GO BLUE!
shock cyberspace
Predicting a 1-pt win means almost nothing - it's not as though there is a 64.2% chance of their being right for EACH game, just overall.
<br>
<br>You can do that well yourself if you average your guesses (How hard is it to predict that OSU wins its first-round game?)
<br>
<br>A 1-pt differential might translate to as little as a 51% chance they think Tennessee wins. It's as close to saying "we don't have any effing idea what will happen," since they can't predict a tie.
They're touting a 64.5% success rate in the first round of the NCAA tournament?
Try something this year. Pick the #1 and #2 seeds to win their first round games. Then flip a coin on the other 24 games. That "simulation" will give you an average 62.5% success rate in the first round any year where a #1 or #2 seed doesn't shit the bed. These guys are proud that they beat this strategy by 2 percent?
Give me KenPom any day.
I just hate it when companies try stupid selling points that make no sense. It reminds me of the Simpsons episode with the lemon tree:
- Shelbyville Guy #1: Sounds like Springfield's got a discipline problem.
-
Shelbyville Guy #2: Maybe that's why we beat them at football nearly half the time.
March 15th, 2011 at 10:19 AM ^
I was thinking the same thing. In the worst bracket I ever compiled in my life, I think I had 70%+ right in the first round. Now, if the model promises 65% accuracy across the board, then that is more impressive because it means they correctly pick teams that will make long runs even as upsets. But yeah, 2/3 right of the first round means they still trail most receptionists in the office pools across America.
Michigan always wins when I'm in the house. I scored a free (!!) ticket yesterday and, as such, MIchigan cannot lose.
March 15th, 2011 at 10:23 AM ^
So what you're saying is we need to get you tickets for the CCHA/NCAA Hockey Tournament, the NCAA Basketball Tournament, and season tickets for football next year?
From your fingertips to Dave Brandon's ears . . .
It is understood that some point in time computers will evolve to develop human emotion and social-situational processing.
That time has come.... Computers Lie
March 15th, 2011 at 10:23 AM ^
Where the hell is John Connor? He's supposed to have this kinda shit under control.
March 15th, 2011 at 11:01 AM ^
"No fate but what you make"
March 15th, 2011 at 10:49 AM ^
We're hot right now but I'm not sure that we make it out of regions. We catch T as they're slumping and maybe a few more wins, but then another hot team with senior talent comes along and beats us. I'm hoping we go all the way but I wouldn't bet much on it.
As for Sparty, if they play like they did against PSU they might as well save themselves the trip. They should have handled PSU easily but they could not sink shots to save their life.
March 15th, 2011 at 12:02 PM ^
I have Computers going out first round to little hand-held devices that can do everything that computers can and let you take pictures and talk on the phone.
I've got the underdog Walkman getting a win against the higher rated Ipod
got in over Virginia Tech too? Man, the Hokies got jobbed!
Garbage in, garbage out.