Competing with Rutgers for Heart of Dallas Bowl w/ Win

Submitted by alum96 on

Looking at Jerry Palm's predicted bowl outcomes, it would appear with a win Saturday UM could avoid the Quick Lane Bowl and get a trip to Dallas. 

We'd be competing with Rutgers for said bowl.  Rutgers is 5-4 with a very hobbled Gary Nova and just got decimated by Wisconsin 37-0.

Rutgers remaining opponents are Indiana, @MSU, @Maryland.  While Indiana is horrid so is Rutgers right now.  Nova went 5/15 vs Wiscy and his replacement went 2/12.   Vegas has this line as only 6; at least Indiana has Coleman.  Lose that and Rutgers is not bowling at 0-3 the rest of the way.  But even if they win, chalk up Maryland and MSU as losses and Rutgers is 6-6.

That should send us to Dallas in place of Rutgers w/ a win for UM v Maryland - due to the fergodsakes this is Michigan factor. (Rutgers goes to Detroit in that case if bowl eligible)  I think a 6-6 Michigan gets invited to Dallas even over a 7-5 Rutgers.

Palm has the opposing team in Heart of Dallas bowl as Rice who if you recall lost to ND the week before us 48-17.  So it sounds like an even matchup.  But if not Rice it would be some mid tier Conference USA foe which (sigh) we could be competitive with - the likes of Middle Tennesee, UAB, LA Tech, or UTEP.   But I think its better for the psyche of this program at this moment to beat one of these teams than see GA Tech or UCLA roll us by 30.

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Aside from UM  - with the Big 10 looking outside the playoffs it sets up the conference for an attractive bowl schedule, with some fun games that are winnable; conference could actually have a winning bowl record with this slate.

  • Cotton - OSU vs TCU or Baylor
  • Fiesta - Nebraska v Arizona State
  • Taxslayer - Minnesota v Missouri
  • Outback - Wisconsin v A&M
  • Capital - MSU v Auburn
  • San Fran - Iowa v USC
  • Holiday - Maryland v UCLA
  • Pinstripe - PSU v GA Tech  (we dont want anything to do with this game, GA Tech can score a ton)

 

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Gucci Mane

November 10th, 2014 at 12:00 AM ^

He did not have anything more to do with firing the athletic director than you. Wolverine devotee epitomizes what is bad about the Internet, he throws a bunch of darts in the dark and tries to hit the target, as he misses almost everything else.

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LSAClassOf2000

November 9th, 2014 at 10:30 PM ^

I won't lie here because I agree - when limping into bowl eligibility with a flat tire, a broken strut or two and on fumes becomes something that is about a 50/50 shot (plus or minus a few percentage points depending on the site you employ) and you can term that a goal of some kind, you are officially in a weird place as a Michigan fan. 

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alum96

November 9th, 2014 at 9:38 PM ^

4 thoughts

  1. Financial - having Hoke coach thru Dec 26th makes it a lot more convenient to fire him Jan 2 and save $2M which can be rolled to Harbaugh's err... the next coach's first year contract.  I know we don't even consider $2M a rounding error but with the salaries of Mattison, Nuss, et al we are going to be eating this helps.  If no bowl, then Hoke would be hanging out there in no man's land for a month if he was going to be fired, and they want to save $2M.
  2. Practice - while some will debate if any practice time with this staff is helpful, I would have to think an extra month of practice, even with a HS staff would be better than none.
  3. Reward players - while a shit bowl, its still fun to get out of town and build some camaraderie. 
  4. Wins are better than losses - while we'd have beaten 2 horrid teams in Indiana and NW, finishing the seasons with 3 out of 4 wins would at least be a tiny white flag.  Hell win the bowl and it's 4 out of 5 and some may say bring back Hoke!  Oops wait, that's not a positive.

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Mr Miggle

November 9th, 2014 at 10:14 PM ^

if he is fired before the end of the year is $1M. He still gets $2M if he makes it through the end of 2014. The difference could probably be reduced by a settlement if we're not playing in a Jan. 1 bowl in Dallas. I don't really care unless the coaching search is affected. If it is, then worrying about that amount of money would be counterproductive.

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Wolverine Devotee

November 9th, 2014 at 9:50 PM ^

Double FML: the Quick Lane Bowl isn't the Pizza Bowl anymore.

I was at the Pizza Bowl last year watching BGSU and they had a pregame pizza party. 10 cents a slice and you got a free can of pop with each slice. 

At least I could've looked forward to the Pizza raid if we were headed to Ford Field. 

Edit: Michigan should play their bowl game at the Silverdome.

Did you guys know that Spartan Stadium is NOT the second largest open-air stadium in Michigan? Why, the second largest is none other than the Pontiac Silverdome as of a month ago.

 

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Joseph_P_Freshwater

November 9th, 2014 at 9:31 PM ^

We shouldn't go to a bowl just based on the fact we got lit up by Gary nova. let that sink in.

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alum96

November 9th, 2014 at 9:56 PM ^

Yeah Seth looked at it like a month ago and at the time Nova was like the 3rd or 4th best statistical QB in the conference.  Which says a lot more about the state of offenses in the conference than Gary Nova.  He is now hobbled with a knee injury but like UM there is really no other option it seems for Rutgers. 

 

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Leonhall

November 9th, 2014 at 9:41 PM ^

I don't see it happening, I mean I want a bowl but I could see us losing late against Maryland, in an excruciating way...the. At Columbus I could see it being like 17-10 or something at halftime but the Osu rolls 45-10. I just don't feel like this season will end well for us, I see us losing the next two.


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alum96

November 9th, 2014 at 9:48 PM ^

Based on the advanced stats (FEI, S&P+) Northwestern, UM, PSU, Rutgers*, and Maryland are all quite similar actually (with slightly different strengths and weaknesses).  Which is why when they play each other the games are general shit shows that bore you to  death.  But close shit shows.  Being at home, I'd put it at 50/50 odds.  I bet UM will be favored by maybe 1 pt or so by Vegas; if it was in Maryland probably we'd be dogs by 4.   Maryland is good at winning close ones vs craptastic teams and then getting blown out by 30 to 50 to Wisconsin and OSU. 

*Rutgers with a healthy Gary Nova

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alum96

November 9th, 2014 at 9:52 PM ^

No they will pick from a pod of teams.  Dont quote me as I dont recall exactly but something like the bowls seeded 2-4 will select from one group of teams and then bowls seeded 5-7 will pick from another group etc.   It's a lot more complicated than the old system because we are going to actually be rotating some bowls with other conferences - some years they will get a Big 10 team and others an ACC for example.  I have not studied all the nuances but the one thing UM has going for it is brand.  It will almost always go to a bowl over its head - Dallas has to assume they will never get another chance at UM.  (not that they'd necessarily be correct - derp)

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flashOverride

November 9th, 2014 at 9:52 PM ^

I just hope Michigan wins in two weeks. I was in Columbus in 2009, they took a great deal of pleasure in denying Michigan their sixth win and bowl eligibility. As unexcited as we may be about a trip to some bowl named for some Southern regional corporate sponsor no one up here has heard of, I'd still prefer the berth already be sewn up so the 56-3 beating in the Horseshoe at least doesn't include that bonus for the Buckeyes again. 

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