Comparing Offensive Production by Drive vs. Utah 2014 & 2015.

Submitted by mgobaran on

So I am not trying to go all "Inside the Boxscore" on you guys and gals. That's ST3's job and he is way better at it. I thought a quick comparison by drives against Utah between 2014 & 2015 would be interesting to look at. 

I am seeking out improvement with this analysis, so I will try and not be biased. I will be biased though. 

TO THE DATA!

  2014
  QTR PLAYS YARDS  T.O.P. RESULT
  1ST 12 50 5:24 FIELD GOAL
  1ST 7 40 3:36 PUNT
  1ST 3 -5 1:24 PUNT
  2ND 6 31 2:43 PUNT
  2ND 4 15 1:27 PUNT
  2ND 4 27 2:23 INTERCEPTION
  2ND 0 0 0:00 N/A**
  3RD 9 24 5:16 PUNT
  3RD 11 45 5:35 DOWNS
  4TH 2 12 0:43 INTERCEPTION
  4TH 7 22 2:59 INTERCEPTION
  4TH 7 32 1:33 FUMBLE
  4TH 4 0 0:29 DOWNS
           
TOTAL: 13 76 293 26:28 3 PTS

**Defensive TD

Yay so 3 points, 5 punts, 3 interceptions, two turnovers on downs and a fumble!!! (Sorry for making you guys look at that). 

Let's see that Harbaugh Bump!!

  2015
  QTR PLAYS YARDS  T.O.P. RESULT
  1ST 10 54 4:42 INTERCEPTION
  1ST 3 9 1:54 PUNT
  1ST 6 29 1:50 FIELD GOAL
  2ND 3 8 1:07 PUNT
  2ND 6 23 2:29 INTERCEPTION
  2ND 3 6 1:37 PUNT
  2ND 0 0 0:00 END HALF
  3RD 11 49 5:02 MISS FG
  3RD 12 75 5:03 TOUCHDOWN
  4TH 4 23 2:05 INTERCEPTION
  4TH 7 29 2:43 DOWNS
  4TH 9 80 1:52 TOUCHDOWN
           
TOTAL: 12 74 385 30:41 17 PTS

Okay so better right? NSFMF. That could just be your brain wanting to it to be better! But no seriously, this is better. No fumble, 1 less turnover on downs. TWO MORE TOUCHDOWNS!!  WHAT WHAT?!? Same amount of interceptions though. Lot less punting also, which is a key to our success this year. Gaining 20 yards and punting is going to keep stress off our defense and keep us in games.

Anyways, the whole reason I started looking into these STATS were for the 3 and out numbers. In 2014, Michigan only had two drives of 3 plays or less. 5 drives of 4 or less. The Harbaughffense had three drives of 3 plays or less, and 4 drives of 4 or less. Not great improvement here. 

Where improvement does exist is in the consistent movement of the offense. Hoke's 2014 squad had 12 offensive possessions averaging 6.33 plays per possession (PPP), and around 24 yards per possession (YPP). Harbaugh led his offense on 11 possessions, averaging 6.72 PPP, while bumping the YPP up to 35!! So there is a 10 yards field position swing per possession from 2014 to 2015. If only we could have punted more!

Other items of note:
Longest drive (yards) - 50 yards (2014) vs. 80 yards (2015).
Longest drive (time) - 5:35 (2014) vs. 5:03 (2015).
2014 offense had 3 drives of 9 plays or more.
2015 offense had 4 drives of 9 plays or more. 

The best news by far was the success of the 2 minute offense. Hoke's attempt in 2014 was four plays for zero yards and a turn over on downs. Harbaugh's offense took the ball 80 yards on 9 plays for a touchdown in 1:52. Might need to do that faster down the road, but seeing that we left a minute on the clock for the offense in case the onside kick worked, no harm no foul.

TL;DR: Very little improvement from last year to this one statistically. Yards per possession got a nice bump, but the biggest results are in the points score. 3 points in 2014 vs 17 in 2015 tell the whole story. The eye test helped as well. 

 

Wolverine Devotee

September 4th, 2015 at 10:28 AM ^

This game is 38-3 with the last staff. Would've folded up shop down 17-3 on the road at night against a respectable opponent. And after the pick six? Forget it. Instead, Rudock led the team right down the field and gave us a chance to recover an outside and potentially tie the game. On the road, at night, with no timeouts. That's improvement. Big time.

MIdocHI

September 4th, 2015 at 10:37 AM ^

I was not impressed with our offense last night.  It reminded me of the Carr offenses- off tackle with Smith...  Where was the motion Brian talked about?  Where were the imaginative tweaks to give us an advantage?  Frankly, I could imagine Hoke calling those plays. Iowa fans must have been chortling about Rudock.  He is average at best.  Perhaps the first interception was not his fault (but receivers are told to "sit" in an open area), but the other 2 were definitely his fault.  The overthrows were clearly his fault.  Chesson was so wide open, he could have floated the ball up there for an easy score.  An experienced QB should know better.  I am so tired of getting my hopes up every year to have them dashed against the jagged rocks.  We should just go the way of University of Chicago and reminisce about the glory days.  I have been watching Michigan football for 40 years, and this is crap. 

michiganman001

September 4th, 2015 at 10:42 AM ^

Moved the ball well the whole game, but whether it was interceptions, turnover on downs, or missed FG, just couldnt finish.

The passing game will get better with Haurbaugh coaching Rudock and Rudock and the WR's/Butt getting better chemistry. The run game was not good at all and that has to be the biggest concern.

Hopefully the run game gets better otherwise we might have to become Texas Tech.

mgobaran

September 4th, 2015 at 10:50 AM ^

Agree with you. Really thought this team would finish off drives better under Harbaugh. Probably just a task too tall to overcome week 1. Also the run game...oof. Reality vs. Expectations for offense would look like this.

QB < 

RB <

WR >>

TE =

OL <

Ball Security <<<

Still thinking 8-4 with improvement over the season, but definitely leaning more towards 7-5 now than 9-3.

 

SpikeFan2016

September 4th, 2015 at 1:07 PM ^

I agree with this. Except I think that: 

  1. We are being slightly too critical on our OL (especially) and RBs (to a lesser extent) because Utah's run defense is very good. The OL's pass protection was much better than I was expecting
  2. On the other hand, Utah's secondary is likely the weakest part of its team, so while the WRs looked good last night, that will be one of the weaker units they face. 

 

MichiganTeacher

September 4th, 2015 at 10:43 AM ^

Nice analysis, thanks.

Agree that there is improvement.

During the game, I felt like the run game was actually more improved than the stat line indicated. This was a pretty good defense. Will be interesting to see what Brian finds in the UFR. 

Also during the game, I felt like every phase of the game was good enough to win except the QB play. The non-Lewis corner was not stellar, but seemed serviceable. They attacked Stribling relentlessly on that first drive and he got it together enough to make the sure tackle on that all-curls 3rd down play (I think it was all-curls) that held them to a field goal. And our own kicker looks shaky too. And our LBs are not what you would call fast, a lack of speed made worse by sometimes being out of position.

But really, everything looked good enough to win against a good opponent on the road - except the QB. It's the most important position on the field, and it's our worst.

MichiganTeacher

September 4th, 2015 at 1:01 PM ^

Yeah, I definitely saw some of that. But I saw some positives from the run game, too - those holes, for instance. 

I'm just saying that I didn't think the run game doomed us. Maybe that thought won't stand up on second viewing/UFR. But I do think the passing game doomed us. Doom doom doomity doom doom. There were positives there, but sheesh those interceptions and missed TDs. It's apples to oranges to an extent, but if the run game had been as bad as the passing game, then we would have had three lost fumbles, at least one unforced, near 0 YAC, and Smith slipping in the backfield at least once when the OL opened a gaping hole three yards from a TD. 

Passing game is on pace for 36 INT! Won't hold up, level of competition and all that, but still. Worst of all, I don't think we can blame the coaches. Just may not have the personnel. My hope is that the light goes on and Rudock and company get on the same page.

charblue.

September 4th, 2015 at 10:58 AM ^

was vanilla and didn't see as much shifting as I expected. Both of these expectation I'm rationalizing were the result of playing on the road and the staff wanting to gameplan for execution results rather than seeking to confuse a non-conference opponent. 

Anyway, this is the second time in playing Utah that Michigan managed to outgain the Utes and still lose because of costly turnovers, one that cancelled an excellent drive that might have produced an early TD giving the team a major momentum lift. The other TO ended the game. 

My other criticism of the staff would be squandering timeouts and failing to take advantage of mismatches in pass coverage, specifically throwing to backs out of the backfield. Michigan used to be a great screen team and we never saw one last night, just quick bubble throws to Darboh and Chesson where Perry, out of the slot made some nice blocks to spring for extra yards. 

Michigan equaled Utah in TOP and first downs with 20 apiece. Defensively Michigan limited the Utes offensive numbers in rushing and passing to about 150 each, which is extremely good. Most of the Utes hidden yards came from quarterback runs, either designed zone reads or draws that produced both first downs and a score. Michigan was better than good on third down conversion stops limiting the Utes to 3 of 13 but I think they were not so good on second down plays. 

Michigan made Booker a non-factot and the Utes anticipating that the defense would key on him, used him mostly as a decoy early and a receiver hoping to get him yards that way. That strategy was somewhat effective. Utah also was effective when thrwoing to their slot guy, a freshman, who came up with several nice catches that extended drives or got the Utes into the red zone. 

hfhmilkman

September 4th, 2015 at 11:29 AM ^

I think the problem is that our starting RB is not good at pass catching.  The intel is that Isaac has better hands.  We saw Smith drop one sure completion late.  I would have liked to see Isaac get some screens.  But he looked pretty slow also.  In general screens and dumps to slow RB's do not work very well.

Tex_Ind_Blue

September 4th, 2015 at 11:02 AM ^

Great work! Thank you for the comparison. Could you put the comparison in a table as well please? Much easier to see the numbers, instead of reading through the text. This team felt different than the last year. We do have to remember, in spite of Rudock being a grad transfer he is still learning a new system along with the receivers and backs. So the chemistry is not there yet. It will come and it will look wonderful. AJ Williams looked rusty in catching the football. Remind me what exactly he does well? 

kingsyzd614

September 4th, 2015 at 11:02 AM ^

 to watch the game back yet, well because of life and work, but I saw a lot of ominous blocking that had me thinking regression.  I was screaming "Get a hat on somebody" at least for or 5 times when Fox would cut to a quick replay.  Mason Cole has an abysmal first quarter and Kalis struggled all game to identify someone to hit almost every time he pulled.  I remember a lot of that early last season too before we basically just started zone blocking because well these guys just aren't that well coached at this point.  The receiver showed themselves capable of making plays if we can get them the ball, so that was a good sign.  We still lack explosive runs.  Hoping that was more Utah than our O line regressing,  but again I saw some bad blocking at times just off of the quick replays.

The defense will be as advertised, top 10 with a chance at top 5 or better.  If Peppers plays the way he played the 2nd half, teams will stop throwing that dang bubble screen at some point or at least limit it.  Concerned a little about the LBs in coverage, but that has been the case for over a decade now so nothing new there.

Need a playmaker!!  Where are you at?  Step up and claim the throne!

Swazi

September 4th, 2015 at 1:28 PM ^

You think the line regressed? Really? That pass protection was better than any time the last two years. Probably three years, but Denard could help mitigate that. The run blocking is the same as the last couple years. Can be tough to break habits, and as they say, Rome wasnt built in a day.



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Dawkins

September 4th, 2015 at 11:49 AM ^

I wonder if the thinner air affected us on the deep ball. All 3 missed opportunities (two to Chesson, one to Darboh) were consistent in that Rudock threw them too long. They weren't thown short, they weren't off target horizontally. All three were consistently 1 or 2 steps ahead of the receiver. That was also the case on Rudock's 2nd interception where he overthrew Perry on what would have been a 17-yard completion had they connected (that pass was about 25 yards through the air based on where Rudock threw it from). 

SpaghettiPolicy

September 4th, 2015 at 11:56 AM ^

As someone who has watched Rudock for the entirety of his career I'm skeptical it was the air. Overthrowing deep passes with him at Iowa was almost as consistent as him throwing an out pattern on 3rd and medium/short. AKA- Very frequent.

 

I'm hopeful Harbaugh can coach this with him but this is basically what he's known for and a big reason Iowa fan's like/liked Beathard better. 

Swazi

September 4th, 2015 at 1:21 PM ^

Gained about 100 more yards on two fewer plays. Wouldve been fewer plays and more yards had Rudock hit Chesson on those two long passes. And more TDs.

The playcalling is certainly there, and the pass protection is certainly there as well. Just need to execute better.



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MileHighWolverine

September 4th, 2015 at 1:38 PM ^

As much as I complained about the constant runs up the gut for no gain, the offense looked MUCH more cohesive than last year and we did have great play action and deep ball opportunities because the O set them up purposefully. 

I'd love to see an accurate QB, though. Henne would seem to be a perfect fit for this offense.

NolaBleu

September 4th, 2015 at 1:58 PM ^

Was it just me or did anyone else feel like the team based on the eye test and feeling that the team felt very much improved? Yes we lost, but I'm not really that upset about it based on what I saw. Maybe I'm the loner in this, but something just feels like everything is so close to clicking that we are in stored for a good if not great season?