College football win totals 2013 - Vegas
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/story.cfm/story/1420974
UM at 9.5, with Vegas favoring the over.
if so, gotta go with the over...
Or any other championship game
I would bet my honor that we win at least 10 games in the regular season, but certainly not any of my money.
Being that I'm mathmatically challeged and lazy...am I better off putting $100 on us winning 10 or winning the B1G?
The safer bet would be to bet that we win ten games but the fans bet would be to go B1G and say we win the B1G outright
Whats the payout each way?
to win 10 gets you a little over $71. To win the Big Ten, $100 wins $500, at least on this site, over a month ago:
$100 on UM to win the B1G it is!
I could see us (not saying we will, just that there is a fair possibility) losing to ND and Ohio, though I don't think we lose both. Penn State didn't beat any of the really good teams they played last year, and they should be objectively worse this year. When we had a healthy QB and played at home, we handled Nebraska easily, and I don't see them as having a talent upgrade that we haven't matched and then some. Nortwhestern and MSU always seem to be harder then they should be, but we pull out Ws pretty regularly against NW, and MSU looks to have serious problems on offense (though that game is in EL, which isn't great), and Iowa is just awful now, and isn't likely to improve soon. Something like a depth-issue could come up, but we can't foresee that and make predictions on it, and good teams have hard games every year and win them. Personnel-wise, this is the best team of the Hoke era, and I don't see 8-4 as any more likely than 10-2 given our personnel and schedule.
I was watching a bunch of videos on the '97 team and realized/remembered that Hutchinson and Backus were both freshmen on that team, coupled with a less heralded sophomore/freshman combo at Rt. guard in Ziemann and Brandt. We have our experience on the OL more spread out with THE best tackle in the conference in Lewan, and one of the best in Schofield. Miller has experience in the system at Center, which leaves the guards manned by inexperience obviously. What I'm getting at is that on paper this team is set up better on the line than that team was and they did ok. I think Kalis and Braden could be on the level of Hutch and Backus too. Obviously the line is an unknown entity, but I think they can be very, very good. Oh ps there was also a freshman tailback who had a coming out party and shared carries on that team by the name of Anthony Thomas. pps Gardner is better than Griese. ppps that was essentially a defense molded by Mattison.
Late night excite rant complete.
Largely well said. This is essentially the same schedule that got us to the Sugar Bowl, but with what seems to be a more talented team. To me, 8-4 would be a pretty substantial let down. I would imagine we split the ND and OSU games, and likely a split on the MSU and Northwestern road games. The possibility of a loss to one of Nebraska or Penn State is real enough as well. But generally, I think the firepower is there to win 9 or 10 games, barring unforseen exigency.
He has a right to an opinion, and actually has a valid concern. I definitely don't believe 8-4 is out of the picture. Hell, 8-4 isn't even really all that bad for a team that is still extremely young, but with a lot of potential.
I'd personally lean more towards 10 than 8 wins, but I think 9 is the closest realistic whole number win total for Michigan this year (which makes 9.5 understandable)
That is where I would put us too. 9-3 or 10-2 seem very likely. Notre Dame, @MSU, @Northwestern, Nebraska, @Penn State, and Ohio State are all potential losses. 3-3 or 4-2 in that span is probably where were going to end up. We should be 6-0 in the other 6 games.
Our losses most likely would be:
1) ND - I don't see our OL getting it together that early in the season
2) Split MSU/ NW - We'll likely lose one of these two games (NW I think) since MSU offense doesn't look great
3) Penn/ Neb/ Ohio State - We may lose one of these three games.
I think that if the OL plays bad for ND, it will be somewhat mitigated by DG and his scrambling ability. Also, not sure why everyone is scared of ND. They are not very good. Their only good win last year was at Oklahoma. Their backup punter is likely going to be their starting QB at the rate they are going, they needed a series of miracles to beat us last year in South Bend, we've had their number of late, and we will be playing UTL II.
I don't see how ND stands a chance.
I also don't get the love for MSU. Nebraska will be a bigger challenge. MSU won't advance past the 50 more than a few times all game.
Ohio State is good, but overrated. PSU is due to be down. I see potential losses against OSU, NW, and Nebraska. We either lose 1-2 of those games, I think. 11-1 is more likely than 8-4.
You don't see how ND stands a chance? Our defense is kind of a big deal, such that it won the game for us last year and an undefeated regular season.
What you should be most concerned about, and not so much anymore with Golson out, is Kelly getting his offense rolling.
We are not losing to NU (not NW) . Not gonna happen.
Remember, Nebraska beat Northwestern last year so Nebraska gets to be NU (instead of UNL) and Northwestern is relegated to NW
My bad.
Penn State still has a pretty good team, all things considered. On defense, they have an experienced secondary, a very good DE in Barnes who is coming off a freshman DPOY in the B1G, an excellent LB in Hull, and a pretty decent set of guys ready to step in. Besides, when is the last time PSU had what one could call a "weak" front 7? As for the offense, their WRs and TEs, especially Robinson and Carter, are going to be tough to slow down, their QB shouldn't be too much of a downgrade as both Hackenberg and Ferguson are much more talented than McGloin but just lack the experience, Zwinak is serviceable and started much of last year at RB, and the OL returns 3/5.
I get that it took OT to beat them last year but c'mon.
To me the ND game will tell a lot. Win and we are looking at 10-11 win season, lose and it's likely 9-3,8-4.
SBNation (HERE) had a slightly expanded listing. Here are the Big Ten teams listed in their table:
| Northwestern | Indiana |
| Over 9.5 (-175) | Over 5.5 (-190) |
| Under 9.5 (+135) | Under 5.5 (+150) |
| Ohio State | Michigan |
| Over 11.5 (+160) | Over 9.5 (-155) |
| Under 11.5 (-210) | Under 9.5 (+115) |
| Minnesota | Penn State |
| Over 5.5 (-120) | Over 8.5 (+150) |
| Under 5.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (-190) |
| Nebraska | Wisconsin |
| Over 9.5 (+100) | Over 8.5 (-210) |
| Under 9.5 (-140) | Under 8.5 (+160) |
Vegas is definitely underestimating (or betters are) how easy and likely it is to lose only one game. One off game is all it takes. And even with a down B1G, that one off game could happen against a team as poor as Purdue (who took OSU to OT last year) and lead to your single loss. I wouldn't bet money on last years Alabama team in this years B1G to go undefeated (I wouldn't bet against them either, though), and OSU isn't last years Bama team. By far the safest bet on that board.
I'm taking that one.
My dad was at Ceasars Palace a couple weeks ago and I had him put 10 bucks down for me for Michigan to win it all at 35-1 odds. I am pretty happy with getting those odds.
will be in January.........the coin flip to LSU in the NC, that will be our only loss of the year!
to a certain point. Ohio also has a pretty clear path right up until the end of November.
I'm not sure why you got negged for this?
what's in your cup, just pass it over and let me have a sip of it.
It really is that simple. Devin is the best QB in the land (ok maybe Manziel or Bridgewater) but Devin is close. Derrik Green and Fitz will make us happy. Gallon is 1st team all big ten, and Darboh/Chessun will surprise. Our TEs are easily the best in the big ten. Now onto the Oline. Our tackles destroy anybody else's tackles. Our center is probably average. Now our guards...Kalis and Braden are 5* and 4* guys!! Give me redshirt 5* guys over 5th year senior 2* ANYDAY!...Besides, they are the interior of the line...In a pro-style offense, interior is not nearly as critical as exterior....The Dline should be manned by two 2nd or 3rd team interior guys and outside we will have 5 or 6 explosives guys rotating with Black being a 1st team all B1G. LB's should be excellent with Ross surprising and being a second teamer. I think our secondary will be extremely effective allowing us to fill in the box. Overall, the talent on D will be above average. The difference though my friends, is the coaching. Borges knows how to coach a pro-style offense, he has been there. Mattison? come on he is worth 2 wins BY HIMSELF...and FInally, Coach Hoke....nobody understands the job of a head coach better...calm the troops, never panic, trust your coaches and players...HAVE FAITH...the final two games will be OSU in Indy and then the bowl...now those 2 games will be toss-ups....buy you just never know!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!!?
Trolling?
Hoke can't depend on too many 8-4 seasons to keep his job secure although his recruiting prowess certainly helps. Consistently being "8-4" is pretty much how Lloyd Carr ended up on the hot seat and he had a National Championship under his belt.
I don't even understand people who aren't willing to accept that there is uncertainty in the outcome of *every* game. As such I don't think it's prudent to say something like "We'll split the OSU and ND games and probably lose one of the Neb., Northwestern, and MSU games, so that puts us at 10-2. Book it." Is there really *no* chance that M loses any other game? Isn't it best to account for that cumulative probability somehow?
So let's do something simple and just write down our estimates of the probability that M wins each of the games on their schedule. Here is how I figure it for each game. Where am I high or low? If you see 10 wins (or more) you've got to make some big changes from this.
Central Mich. 0.95
Notre Dame 0.45
Akron 0.99
at Connecticut 0.85
Minnesota 0.8
at Penn State 0.65
Indiana 0.9
at Mich. State 0.6
Nebraska 0.65
at Northwestern 0.6
at Iowa 0.8
Ohio State 0.4
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SUM 8.64