UM at 9.5, with Vegas favoring the over.
UM at 9.5, with Vegas favoring the over.
if so, gotta go with the over...
Or any other championship game
Being that I'm mathmatically challeged and lazy...am I better off putting $100 on us winning 10 or winning the B1G?
The safer bet would be to bet that we win ten games but the fans bet would be to go B1G and say we win the B1G outright
Whats the payout each way?
to win 10 gets you a little over $71. To win the Big Ten, $100 wins $500, at least on this site, over a month ago:
$100 on UM to win the B1G it is!
Still see 8-4 again. I really really want to be wrong.
I could see us (not saying we will, just that there is a fair possibility) losing to ND and Ohio, though I don't think we lose both. Penn State didn't beat any of the really good teams they played last year, and they should be objectively worse this year. When we had a healthy QB and played at home, we handled Nebraska easily, and I don't see them as having a talent upgrade that we haven't matched and then some. Nortwhestern and MSU always seem to be harder then they should be, but we pull out Ws pretty regularly against NW, and MSU looks to have serious problems on offense (though that game is in EL, which isn't great), and Iowa is just awful now, and isn't likely to improve soon. Something like a depth-issue could come up, but we can't foresee that and make predictions on it, and good teams have hard games every year and win them. Personnel-wise, this is the best team of the Hoke era, and I don't see 8-4 as any more likely than 10-2 given our personnel and schedule.
It will depend on the interior of the O-line. If they gel and play well then I could see more than 8 wins.
I was watching a bunch of videos on the '97 team and realized/remembered that Hutchinson and Backus were both freshmen on that team, coupled with a less heralded sophomore/freshman combo at Rt. guard in Ziemann and Brandt. We have our experience on the OL more spread out with THE best tackle in the conference in Lewan, and one of the best in Schofield. Miller has experience in the system at Center, which leaves the guards manned by inexperience obviously. What I'm getting at is that on paper this team is set up better on the line than that team was and they did ok. I think Kalis and Braden could be on the level of Hutch and Backus too. Obviously the line is an unknown entity, but I think they can be very, very good. Oh ps there was also a freshman tailback who had a coming out party and shared carries on that team by the name of Anthony Thomas. pps Gardner is better than Griese. ppps that was essentially a defense molded by Mattison.
Late night excite rant complete.
A strong defense was what got it done for them, featuring Charles Woodson among others. If we have that kind of D this year, 10 wins would be completely possible, but it doesn't look like we do.
As far as the o-line, I think you have to look at last year to be realistic. The line wasn't all that impressive last year, and we've lost 3 fifth year seniors. This year, in those spots in the two deep we have Jack Miller, two walk-ons, and guys who have never played a down of college football. It's very hard to project us being better than last year based on that, at least to start the season.
Winning ten games is tough if you don't have strong play on both lines, and right now we're looking decent but not great in those areas. 9-3 regular season is probably more realistic for this team, maybe getting to 10 wins if everything goes our way and if we avoid critical injuries.
Largely well said. This is essentially the same schedule that got us to the Sugar Bowl, but with what seems to be a more talented team. To me, 8-4 would be a pretty substantial let down. I would imagine we split the ND and OSU games, and likely a split on the MSU and Northwestern road games. The possibility of a loss to one of Nebraska or Penn State is real enough as well. But generally, I think the firepower is there to win 9 or 10 games, barring unforseen exigency.
He has a right to an opinion, and actually has a valid concern. I definitely don't believe 8-4 is out of the picture. Hell, 8-4 isn't even really all that bad for a team that is still extremely young, but with a lot of potential.
I'd personally lean more towards 10 than 8 wins, but I think 9 is the closest realistic whole number win total for Michigan this year (which makes 9.5 understandable)
That is where I would put us too. 9-3 or 10-2 seem very likely. Notre Dame, @MSU, @Northwestern, Nebraska, @Penn State, and Ohio State are all potential losses. 3-3 or 4-2 in that span is probably where were going to end up. We should be 6-0 in the other 6 games.
Our losses most likely would be:
1) ND - I don't see our OL getting it together that early in the season
2) Split MSU/ NW - We'll likely lose one of these two games (NW I think) since MSU offense doesn't look great
3) Penn/ Neb/ Ohio State - We may lose one of these three games.
I think that if the OL plays bad for ND, it will be somewhat mitigated by DG and his scrambling ability. Also, not sure why everyone is scared of ND. They are not very good. Their only good win last year was at Oklahoma. Their backup punter is likely going to be their starting QB at the rate they are going, they needed a series of miracles to beat us last year in South Bend, we've had their number of late, and we will be playing UTL II.
I don't see how ND stands a chance.
I also don't get the love for MSU. Nebraska will be a bigger challenge. MSU won't advance past the 50 more than a few times all game.
Ohio State is good, but overrated. PSU is due to be down. I see potential losses against OSU, NW, and Nebraska. We either lose 1-2 of those games, I think. 11-1 is more likely than 8-4.
You don't see how ND stands a chance? Our defense is kind of a big deal, such that it won the game for us last year and an undefeated regular season.
What you should be most concerned about, and not so much anymore with Golson out, is Kelly getting his offense rolling.
I'm gonna go with 10-2 for the season. Losses probably to ND and NW.
We are not losing to NU (not NW) . Not gonna happen.
Fer cryin out loud! Never bet with your heart, only your mind. $300 on 11 wins it is!
Penn State still has a pretty good team, all things considered. On defense, they have an experienced secondary, a very good DE in Barnes who is coming off a freshman DPOY in the B1G, an excellent LB in Hull, and a pretty decent set of guys ready to step in. Besides, when is the last time PSU had what one could call a "weak" front 7? As for the offense, their WRs and TEs, especially Robinson and Carter, are going to be tough to slow down, their QB shouldn't be too much of a downgrade as both Hackenberg and Ferguson are much more talented than McGloin but just lack the experience, Zwinak is serviceable and started much of last year at RB, and the OL returns 3/5.
I can't believe how many of you are counting NW as a potential loss.
I get that it took OT to beat them last year but c'mon.
To me the ND game will tell a lot. Win and we are looking at 10-11 win season, lose and it's likely 9-3,8-4.
Well, to be fair, they're coming off a 10-win season and are returning almost everyone. Granted, they might crumble under the pressure, but we could legitimately lose to them next year, especially if their defense has even remotely improved. Right now, before either team has played a single down, I say it's a tossup.
SBNation (HERE) had a slightly expanded listing. Here are the Big Ten teams listed in their table:
|Over 9.5 (-175)||Over 5.5 (-190)|
|Under 9.5 (+135)||Under 5.5 (+150)|
|Over 11.5 (+160)||Over 9.5 (-155)|
|Under 11.5 (-210)||Under 9.5 (+115)|
|Over 5.5 (-120)||Over 8.5 (+150)|
|Under 5.5 (-120)||Under 8.5 (-190)|
|Over 9.5 (+100)||Over 8.5 (-210)|
|Under 9.5 (-140)||Under 8.5 (+160)|
The best bet of all those is to take the under on Ohio. I am assuming this is regular season only and I'm not sure about that, but if so the largest payout you can get is on them losing a single game. That is a bet I'd take 100% of the time.
Vegas is definitely underestimating (or betters are) how easy and likely it is to lose only one game. One off game is all it takes. And even with a down B1G, that one off game could happen against a team as poor as Purdue (who took OSU to OT last year) and lead to your single loss. I wouldn't bet money on last years Alabama team in this years B1G to go undefeated (I wouldn't bet against them either, though), and OSU isn't last years Bama team. By far the safest bet on that board.
I'm taking that one.
My dad was at Ceasars Palace a couple weeks ago and I had him put 10 bucks down for me for Michigan to win it all at 35-1 odds. I am pretty happy with getting those odds.
will be in January.........the coin flip to LSU in the NC, that will be our only loss of the year!
We have a better shot at winning the nc than anybody. That's not saying we're better than any sec team, but we are better than anybody we play on the road, and equal to or better than every team we play at home. You have to get to the title game to win it, and I think we have the best road there.
to a certain point. Ohio also has a pretty clear path right up until the end of November.
I'm not sure why you got negged for this?
what's in your cup, just pass it over and let me have a sip of it.
Our schedule isn't a gauntlet but it almost looks that way compared to OSU's. They definitely have the easiest road off the top of my head.
I agree with Vegas. I got us at 10-2 with a split between ND, sparty, NU and ohio.( I'm not worried about Neb.)
Our season hinges, in my humble opinion, on the ND game. Bat them, and we could potentially be looking at a 10-2, maybe 11-1 regular season. We'll trip up somewhere, maybe PSU (night games in Happy Valley are always tough), but we'll cap off the regular season by ruining OSU's chances of making the title game. They might beat us the following week for the right to go to the Rose Bowl, but we'll still have ruined their season, and that's a perfect enough substitute for a Big Ten title for me.
It really is that simple. Devin is the best QB in the land (ok maybe Manziel or Bridgewater) but Devin is close. Derrik Green and Fitz will make us happy. Gallon is 1st team all big ten, and Darboh/Chessun will surprise. Our TEs are easily the best in the big ten. Now onto the Oline. Our tackles destroy anybody else's tackles. Our center is probably average. Now our guards...Kalis and Braden are 5* and 4* guys!! Give me redshirt 5* guys over 5th year senior 2* ANYDAY!...Besides, they are the interior of the line...In a pro-style offense, interior is not nearly as critical as exterior....The Dline should be manned by two 2nd or 3rd team interior guys and outside we will have 5 or 6 explosives guys rotating with Black being a 1st team all B1G. LB's should be excellent with Ross surprising and being a second teamer. I think our secondary will be extremely effective allowing us to fill in the box. Overall, the talent on D will be above average. The difference though my friends, is the coaching. Borges knows how to coach a pro-style offense, he has been there. Mattison? come on he is worth 2 wins BY HIMSELF...and FInally, Coach Hoke....nobody understands the job of a head coach better...calm the troops, never panic, trust your coaches and players...HAVE FAITH...the final two games will be OSU in Indy and then the bowl...now those 2 games will be toss-ups....buy you just never know!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!!?
Hoke can't depend on too many 8-4 seasons to keep his job secure although his recruiting prowess certainly helps. Consistently being "8-4" is pretty much how Lloyd Carr ended up on the hot seat and he had a National Championship under his belt.
I don't even understand people who aren't willing to accept that there is uncertainty in the outcome of *every* game. As such I don't think it's prudent to say something like "We'll split the OSU and ND games and probably lose one of the Neb., Northwestern, and MSU games, so that puts us at 10-2. Book it." Is there really *no* chance that M loses any other game? Isn't it best to account for that cumulative probability somehow?
So let's do something simple and just write down our estimates of the probability that M wins each of the games on their schedule. Here is how I figure it for each game. Where am I high or low? If you see 10 wins (or more) you've got to make some big changes from this.
Central Mich. 0.95 Notre Dame 0.45 Akron 0.99 at Connecticut 0.85 Minnesota 0.8 at Penn State 0.65 Indiana 0.9 at Mich. State 0.6 Nebraska 0.65 at Northwestern 0.6 at Iowa 0.8 Ohio State 0.4 -------------------- SUM 8.64
this type of analysis would be great if your sample size was 1000 games, but its not....10 flips of a coin should end up 5 heads and 5 tails...but generally, it doesn't!! (actually, the probability it does is small)...Like I said 12-0
There is a 0% chance that the team wins exactly 8.6 games. And given that we have only one outcome of the season, we don't know which way it will turn out. But two things:
1. If we flip a coin 10 times we are much more likely to get 5 heads than we are to get 10 (and we're more likely to get 5 heads than we are any other number of them)
2. If we flip a coin 10 times, we are just as likely to have more than 5 heads as we are to have fewer, so the expected value is 5. It probably *won't* be 5, but there isn't any better guess.
So, sure, there is a chance of a 12-0 season. But it's a small chance, and if you want to say we're 12-0 is likey (> 50% chance), then that means that you are implicitly saying there's a 95% chance of winning each game. That's a tough sell to me.
but, you forget we are dealing with Humans not coins....once you get on a roll, its not like a coin!
I'm pretty sure it's 8.64.
The problem is defining the decimal probabilities given the amount of uncertainty present. From your decimal table, I'd add an extra tenth to Michigan State, Minnesota, and Iowa. That makes 9 wins. However, I'd put at least an extra tenth of uncertainty on the entire schedule (more if you include potential injuries to Michigan and other teams during the season). Then you have predictions that vary between 6-6 and 12-0 and are all valid.
Given the nature of "take your random-ass guess" threads, it's probably best to let people stick with anecdotes as reason for their predictions.
Yeah there is a lot of uncertainty, but specifying the outcomes using this formulation allows you to look at that too. Here is the probability of winning 0, 1, ..., 12 games assuming the win percentages I gave above:
Who the fuck wants to read shit when they can't get minor details like that-very important in any type of writing-correct?
Over. Easy money.