Class of 2014 to Play This Year - Thoughts
Who is going to play, who is going to redshirt? Feel free to throw spears at it and disagree... or not.
My general thoughts below, assuming no new boo boos. Put a random incredibly scientific % next to each name for potential to play. Surprisingly I only came up with 3 "for sures" and 5 "most likelies". Although I think it will be 6 with Ferns out on ST. Depth? Yes it's nice.
Hell, yes.
- Peppers (117%) - starter at nickel, potential displacement of a veteran at corner. The #Truth
- Canteen (100%) - don't think will match the hype machine currently generated but a decent freshman campaign with 15-17 catches. This would be a solid year - keep in mind Dileo had 16 catches and Chesson 15, and if Norfleet hype is true he is going to get some playing time.
- Cole (100%) - best case, LT starter. Worst case, first OT off the bench.
Hell, most likely.
- Mone (84%) - lots of camp hype. Has a lot of competition in his way but with coach speak and precedent seems like he will see the field.
- Watson (74%) - some talk of getting 1st team reps here and there. Incredible variability at S this year. Health of Hill, Clark moved from behind Wilson to aside him, any potential play out of Thomas. All of the above unproven. Probably the "5th" S right now right now which is one injury away from 2nd string. This position seems like the one of all on defense that someone could go from 3rd string to 1st in a few weeks.
Hell, maybe.
- Ferns (50%) - Approximately the 8th LB. Top candidate for "why did we spend a redshirt year on him playing special teams?"
- Ways (36%) - Scrimmage hype but against some 3rd string types from all indications. Currently behind Funchess, Darboh, Chesson and most likely Jones. Would he or Dukes be next man up?
Break in case of emergency.
- Bunting (33%) - currently 3rd TE until Butt gets back. Assuming Butt is back by game 4ish, we can survive with AJ Williams/Heitzman for 2 baby seals and ND. If OL is a major issue and 2 TE sets become norm early could shoot up probability.
- Harris (9%) - Hamstrung for 2014. Folks, I'll be here all week. Multiple WR injuries necessary to even think of it late in year as missed time in spring and fall.
- Speight (7%) - If there is an injury, would be 3rd string. A lot of very bad things would need to happen to see the field.
Hell, no.
- Bushell-Beatty (0%) - see you in 3 years when you try to get your chance after dominant 2015/2016 OL players graduate.
- Furbush (0%) - was supposed to be bulky oversized LB with potential to be DE in 2 years, instead was a scrawny S body who needs to bulk up to play LB. Call us in 2016.
- Marshall (6%) - only due to lack of depth at DE. Currently is "6th DE". If injuries mount could still push a Wormley out from DT to DE instead of Marshall. Have heard no camp hype.
- Pallante (0%) - see you in 3 years.
- Wangler (0%) - see you in 2 years.
- Winovich (0%) - literally have not heard one word about him in past 3 months.
August 24th, 2014 at 9:00 AM ^
August 24th, 2014 at 9:26 AM ^
My thought with him is (a) they can push Wormley out to an end if need be, and (b) like Winovich or Furbursh I have heard nary a peep about Marshall in camp. Which is more surprising to me about Marshall than the LBs - thought we'd get a few "he looks like a freshman - raw but with a lot of potential" etc etc. Mone gets talk, Watson has had some talk. Maybe I missed it but I have not heard Mattison say anything about him.
That said, he was the only guy in the hell no category I put above 0% so if any of those guys play, he would be the one.
August 24th, 2014 at 11:31 AM ^
They can, if there is an injury, but I don't know how you go from a 250 DE to a 300 pound DE without it affecting your play-calling or effectiveness.
Marshall hasn't gotten hype, but that may be because the starters are pretty much set and not many people are asking questions about how the backup DE situation is playing out. That's what happens when you have 4 veterans locked in and the freshman spotlight is shining brightly at several other spots.
I think Marshall's athleticism is legit and its an area we lack at DE.
He does have to earn it though, because they can go back to playkng LBs at DE in Nickel situation and there are a ton of LBs...
August 24th, 2014 at 9:59 AM ^
August 24th, 2014 at 11:39 AM ^
Playing against Miami's backups doesn't prepare you for MSU's D.
Morris can take 2nd team practice snaps all year to get ready. Playing in blowouts isn't significant when you've already started a bowl game. Morris isn't going to be intimidated by the spotlight at this point and most of his development will be in a red jersey at practice.
August 24th, 2014 at 3:24 PM ^
August 24th, 2014 at 6:30 PM ^
I don't think Shane is going to red-shirt, because the chances of Devin making it through the entire season without getting dinged are slim. However, if Devin does stay healthy, I I think 95% of Shane's preparation and development are going to happen in practice. The in game stuff, yeah it helps, but it's marginal. Mostly it's about getting comfortable when the lights are on. Shane's already been through that.
Michigan's 2nd string D is a helluva lot better than App State, Miami and Rugers'. That's what we're talkking about here. I don't buy that Shane is going to learn a lot from facing dejected defenders who just want to get off the field. And mostly he'll be handing it off to try to kill the clock anyway.
August 24th, 2014 at 7:42 PM ^
Studying != taking a final. Practice is, well, practice.
In practice, if you make a mistake, the whistle blows and you get corrected, then run through it again. Or you get stopped before you even make the mistake because the coaches can tell it's about to happen. Or someone else needs to get coached up. It's also not the time where you're going to see all the coverages or blitzes - or if you do, you'll know ahead of time because it's that drill or the coaches just told the LB to disguise his drop. You also won't get your D taking full-on shots at your ribs as you throw. There are a million little details that distinguish the real thing from preparing for the real thing, and it's those details that you can only get when it's for-real.
Practice is required and important to get good, yes. But so is live, in-game action; that's where you both codify what you've learned and get new lessons you can only get from the game.
Obligatory Practice Commentary:
August 24th, 2014 at 8:43 PM ^
is not going to happen. If Gardner is healthy he'll be on the field for every meaningful snap. This staff isn't playing the 2014 schedule to prepare for 2015, they're playing 2014 for 2014. As much as you want to look down the road, the coaching staff and players want to win this year and let next year take care of itself.
August 24th, 2014 at 10:32 AM ^
I think we see Bunting this year. Nuss likes double TE's and Jake Butt will be eased back into playing time slowly.
Watson - no true freshamn at S, please no true freshman at S unless its Peppers. Note - this is not a knock on Watson, but 99% of freshman should not see the field at S unless their name is Peppers.
The hell yeahs and hell maybe's - see ya next year. The team is deeper this year.
OL - If Cole wasn't going to start we would have heard by now. Cole at left tackle. I'm not sure if we should be excited or worried. Since I'm a fan I'm going with excited.
August 24th, 2014 at 12:19 PM ^
August 24th, 2014 at 2:41 PM ^
that I am. My mind cannot escape the negative connotations associated with a true frosh bypassing upper class OL (who have been in the program and working w/Funk for 1-3 years) so readily...and, yet, my heart keeps hoping it's because he really is "that good". The one redeeming factor is that his work throughout Fall camp has been consistently praised and, in no small part, because of his CONSISTENCY and not because of uber athleticism or speed or scheme awareness. I may be splitting hairs, but the staff does not seem infatuated with his talent or giftedness, but pleasantly suprised by his mental maturity and toughness (i.e. won't back down from anybody is a Hoke comment i recall). That's something likely to hold up even when facing bigger/stronger/faster opponents. Or i may be totally pissing in the wind just so my brain doesn't force a pre-season meltdown!
August 24th, 2014 at 6:26 PM ^
August 27th, 2014 at 11:57 PM ^
My comment was that the coaches didnt seem infatuated by his physical talent...i'm sure he is talented and they "love" that, as well. Maybe Coach Nuss explained it best in a recent presser as posted on the Big House Blog:
I think mental makeup is the biggest thing that separates Mason. Right now, he’s so mature beyond his years. He’s steady as a rock and what he’s achieved really I don’t think is a surprise to anybody within our building.
He mentions mental makeup and maturity as the traitx that really separated Mason...and that is what i'm pumped about.
August 24th, 2014 at 11:28 AM ^
I like this thread.
On the topic of retroactive redshirts, I do think that Brian and Ace were on to something in the podcast about both K. Bosch and D. Thomas. Do you all think that the coaches would like to get them redshirts in their sophomore seasons? Do you think they WILL be able to?
For Thomas, I hope that the coaches appreciate the necessity of getting a redshirt year on him. He was, by most measures, the consensus blue chip in his very good recruiting class, and he's not even on a meaningful three-deep at any position. The limitation simply must be mental; getting that guy an extra year seems both desirable and key. As to whether they WILL be able to, I think that's obvious - yes. You haven't heard boo about him. If the coaches want an extra year they can get it.
For Bosch I think it's tougher because I think the answers are inverted. It's very suspicious to me that Bosch isn't rumored to be in the mix for a starting job considering he was first man up last year. I think the coaches want to rotate a redshirt on to him. But can they? Actual evidence suggests that he's probably the seventh or eighth lineman in terms of quality on the coaches' list... but do you want to hold him out?
August 24th, 2014 at 11:37 AM ^
Thomas - would be a great idea, but they probably will want him as an asset on special teams. The way recruiting has gone and the way he has been slow to transition to safety, the coaches may not see the upside is worth it to lose a year of production to save Thomas for 2017.
Bosch is like a freshman. If he isn't going to start, he should red-shirt. That said, he is probably the first guy in if/when an injury occurs. I think he's 6th, ahead of Miller and Burzynski. But if those guys are ahead or equivalent, this could be a thing.
August 24th, 2014 at 12:07 PM ^
Everyone's speculation here is Thomas is having trouble converting to S since he was a HS LB. I don't know how much more that is going to change in 12 months if it hasnt happened already in 12 months+9 months. It is not about strength or understanding plays - it is about ability to play in space against fleet of foot guys. Guys either have that or don't.
Looking at the secondary players coming in, it might make sense to convert Thomas to a situational LB with an additional 15 lbs on him to cover TEs and come in on passing downs. After a redshirt year. I don't know - I just don't think a guy "picks up" being a safety. It seems easier to move closer to the LOS than move farther away from it - think Urlacher who went from S to LB. I think Gant is trying to do that as well.
If he is a talented athlete (which everyone raved that he was) we should find a way to get him on the field in 2015 that best expresses his skills. Instead of trying to put a round peg in a square hole. This is year 2 of the Dymonte Thomas experiment and yes the year is not over but getting passed over by multiple guys when he was a top 100 prospect makes me think he is just not a fit for the position and taking away reps from players who are natural at that position just so he could "maybe" get it someday seems like a penality to those other players. Maybe a 215-220 lb LB in 12 months is more his natural spot.
August 24th, 2014 at 12:17 PM ^
We are already overflowing with qualiity LBs. Won't really change next year even with Ryan and Morgan gone because our freshman class of 4 will be breaking in and guys liike McCray, Gedeon, RJS should be ready to emerge beside Bolden and Ross.
Thomas' best bet to start is waiting for Wilson to graduate. Not every guy is going to be a 3 or 4 year starter, especially as the depth and talent solidify. I don't think the problem here is Thomas or Thomas' position. I think he needed a red-shirt year that the coaches couldn't give him. Some guys have to wait till their senior year to start - it's just how it is at an elite program when everything is running smoothly. Doesn't mean he's a bad player.
"find a way to get him on the field in 2015 that best expresses his skills"
special teams it is. that's OK
August 24th, 2014 at 8:15 PM ^
August 24th, 2014 at 12:43 PM ^
I bet Bunting sees the field as well. We don't have a lot of depth at TE now that Funchess has moved to WR, Butt is out until conference play, and Williams is much more of a blocking TE than a passing one. Hopefully Bunting can avoid the injury bug, but I bet he's playing this year.
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August 24th, 2014 at 3:50 PM ^
help you win now and that means you think they are good enough. Because we don't know except what we know about their rankings and high school evaluations and preseason discussion or lack of it, any decision made to play or not play them that results in them gaining or losing a redshirt year is always point of conjecture.
We knew Peppers was going to play. We wanted him to play and we wanted to be told what we are being told about him. All the rest, are coaching decisions. You either accept them or you don't. like Canteen and Ways. And I think Ways on film is as good as lot of guys Michigan has ever had without seeing him live and against real competition. But that's the thing, isn't it?
And why play him if you can save him and let him develop his full potential with complete eligibility. That goes for any of the freshmen who are behind others on the depth chart. Here's what you can't do: you don't redshirt guys who are backups as underclassmen even if you want to, because if you make that choice, then you are telling the player you won't count on him until you have to, which is the wrong signal about playing time.
August 24th, 2014 at 5:47 PM ^
I don't see anything wrong with Bunting getting some action this year. If Clark turns out to be as good as he is rated, Michigan would have a strong threesome of Butt, Bunting and Clark in 3 different classes. This would give good competition, depth, and hopefully prevent having to replace 2 quality TE's in a future recruiting year.
August 24th, 2014 at 6:21 PM ^
August 25th, 2014 at 7:46 AM ^
For perspective, mlive has a story today saying 11 freshman played against CMU in the opener and 12 versus Alabama. I know those were larger classes but it speaks to finally having some depth and not having to rush people out there. Of course if Brady throws out 10 of these guys out there Saturday we'll have egg on our face in that regard.