Chances of Winning Games (Rivals)

we have a better chance against iowa as well. we turn the ball over 6 times at their place and still were a FG away from getting the win. this year's game is at home but there's only a 25% chance of beating them? i disagree with the PSU percentage as well. that night game atmosphere is overblown. the white outs work when PSU is good, i don't think they will be this season. new LBs, new OL, new (awful) QB.

Iowa is a bit perplexing considering Ameristanzi is getting a new offensive line, and he threw a lot of Stanziballs last year, but I just don't get all the Penn State love.  I suppose their defense might be good, but they are going to struggle scoring points this year.  I guess 40% could be worse though, and they have blown us out two years in a row.

Looks about right to me.  UCONN scares me.  I just hope that our defense plays inspired like the way they did against OSU last year.  

Ten percent chance against tUofOSU?

Bulletin board.

So according to Rivals, all things being equal (injuries and whatnot), we have about a 0.02 chance of going undefeated. So you're saying there's a chance!

I agree, though: Some of the games are too skewed. We have a much better than 25% chance of beating Iowa at home IME, but I don't think we have a 70% chance of winning at Purdue (a team we haven't been able to stop the past two years). And 10% against OSU seems a tad low -- if this year's teams played 10 times, I think we'd win more than once. Then again, our recent history doesn't necessarily back that up ...

I do think 35% against Wisconsin is about right. Even though it's at home, I think Wisky is a legitimate top-10 team this year that may very well win the Big Ten.

They are, last I recall, replacing a lot of good players and didn't show much promise in spring practice with the new guys. Why they are getting so much attention is completely beyond me.

I don't think they'll necessarily be bad next year, but I definitely don't think they will be sniffing the Big Ten title and we for sure have a better than 40% chance against them, even if it is in Happy Valley (Which lately hasn't done a whole lot for them. Iowa and OSU were both rather nasty losses at home for them last year).

though these are close, I would change a few...

UMass - 100% -   99% - nothing is a hundred percent.
Bowling Green - 99% - 95% - BG has been known to shock people 
Ilinois - 80% -- higher - 90%
Purdue - 70% -- I agree
Indiana - 65% -- 70% or 75%
UConn - 60% - I agree
ND - 50% --  I think we should be favored here. 55 or 60.
MSU - 50% - this is fair
Penn State - 40% - I think 50/50 here.
Wisconsin - 35% - Less here. 20% They scare me this year. 
Iowa - 25%-- I think 35% - it is homecoming 
OSU - 10% - I think at least 20%

I'm just glad to see teams like UMass at 100% And Bowling Green is a 99%.  2008 really puts things in perspective.

In terms of the percentages as a whole though, I think most should probably be moved a little closer to 50%.  Our high power offense should give a better chance in games we aren't favored in, but our potentially weak D should keep some teams in it and could lead to some upsets.

I'd give M a 75% chance of that win.

I also think they are overrating Wisconsin and Penn State.  PSU doesn't have a qb.  Wisconsin has all the looks of a 7-5 maybe 8-4 team, people are just high on them because they won their bowl game.

That's an okay analysis, but I feel like they're too optimistic about the llinois, Purdue, and ND games  (I'd take off 10% for each) and too pessimistic about the MSU, Wisconsin, Iowa and OSU games.  I don't see Iowa walking into Michigan Stadium with a 75% chance of winning.  And while OSU will be a decided favorite against us, a 90% chance of beating us?   Sparty won't be a tossup, either . . . it should be like 60-65% in our favor.

1. The article is written by Mike Spath, so it's his percentages, not Rivals.
2. I think Wisconsin will be much tougher than Iowa, but at least we get the Badgers at home.  I think Wisconsin might win the league over O-state.

MSU, Iowa, and OSU won't be that hard - I'd say 60%, 45%, and 30% respectively

Iowa was close to losing at least 4 more games last year, and they got a good match up with Georgia Tech in the bowl game (though played well).  Vegas is correct here

Though if they're giving us 7 points against ND, I may take their money there... Too many unknowns for the Irish to lay that line

of PAIN!

Not bad. But I'd switch Iowa and Wisconsin.

I think we have a >50% chance against MSU.  I might give us a 50% chance on a neutral site, but maybe not even.  We have them at home, and we're the team trying to break the streak.  I think we smoke 'em.

Also, Iowa is low.  They'll be a good team, but they couldn't stop us last year even when we handed them the ball.  That game should be a toss-up for us at home.

UMass - 100%: I'd say 99%.
Bowling Green - 99%: I agree, last year we made hash out of teams with grossly inferior talent and I don't see that changing.
Ilinois - 80%: sounds about right, Juice is gone.
Purdue - 70%: maybe 60%, that is a road game and they could be dangerous.
Indiana - 65%: I'd say 80%, I don't like their defense at all.
UConn - 60%: I'd say 55%.
ND - 50%: I agree.
MSU - 50%: maybe 55%, only because we are at home.
Penn State - 40%: seems a little high, as a running team they are a better matchup for us but I think we will struggle on the road against that defense. Maybe 30%.
Wisconsin - 35%: seems about right, another running team with what will probably be a good but not great defense.
Iowa - 25%: I agree. Bad matchup, a passing team with a really good defense.
OSU - 10%: I agree. Their defense is loaded, their offense is loaded by OSU standards, and they're at home.

Overall, the numbers look reasonable.

My percentages would look like this:

• UMass - 99%  (I never go above 99%)
• Bowling Green - 95%
• Illinois - 80%
• Indiana - 75%
• Purdue - 65%
• UConn - 65%
• MSU - 60%
• Iowa -50%
• PSU - 40%
• Notre Dame - 40%
• Wisconsin - 30%
• OSU - 5%

I think UM will go 7-5 or 8-4 in 2010. Probably end up in the Texas Bowl (7-5) or the Gator Bowl (8-4).

A lot of those percentages look pretty good.  A couple thoughts:

- As the season plays out, the percentages could look very different depending on our team's mental state.  For example, if we beat both UConn and ND, I'd expect the percentages for a game like MSU to go up, as we would gain confidence.  If we lose either or both of the first two, the pressure ramps up on our young team to salvage the season, and I'm not sure we have the mental toughness to rebound from such a start.  In that case, I'd expect the percentages to drop for teams like Indiana and MSU as we struggle to find confidence.

- Not only is there pressure on RR to win this season, but I'd guess that the staff is looking for a "statement game" -- one they can point to in recruiting saying essentially, "look, the program is headed way up".  Two games like that this season are ND and Penn State, both nationally televised road games, and perhaps a game like Iowa at home.  As of now, I'd raise those percentages by at least 10 points each because I think the staff will put in new offensive wrinkles for each of those games, and 2 of the 3 QBs should not be able to take huge advantage of our weaknesses on D (and Stanzi can be very inconsistent, even though he's generally good in the 4Q).

Maize-colored glasses, perhaps, but I think we beat UConn and ND and restore a bit of the swagger to this team.  I don't really want to contemplate anything else.

Excluding the non-conference games, Rivals expects us to win 3.75 of our B10 games.  4-4 here might not be too far off.