The chances of Denard winning the Heisman are slim...
...even if he manages to stay healthy and sustain UMass-level output. The reason is because we are not a BCS bowl caliber team. Since 1990, 16 of 20 Heisman winners have come from BCS bowl teams, the only exceptions being Tim Tebow (Florida) in '07, Ricky Williams (Texas) in '98, Eddie George (Ohio State) in '95, and Ty Detmer (BYU) in '90. Of the exceptions, Florida '07 won the national championship the previous year and Ohio State '95 was in the Rose Bowl conversation until very late in the season (HA!). And in the previous 10 years, only Tebow and Carson Palmer (USC) in '02 didn't play in the national championship game.
Don't get me wrong, I think Denard will be deserving of the Heisman if he keeps putting up ridiculous numbers. But the pattern seems to be that the Heisman Trophy is awarded not to the best college football player in the country, but to the most valuable player on an excellent team. And even by the most optimistic estimates, a BCS bowl is a super longshot for us this year.
September 21st, 2010 at 3:23 PM ^
Ugh. Butchered line.
"what was all that one in a million talk?"
September 21st, 2010 at 2:51 PM ^
If he stays healthy and maintains UMass production, we'll be a BCS team this year. I don't see him maintaining that production (which led to 42 points) but if did, I doubt many teams beat us this year, regardless of our defense.
September 21st, 2010 at 3:01 PM ^
finished 2nd with 28 points behind Mark Ingram. He did this despite the lack of publicity, media hype and his team being an above average team last season.
If Denard can keep up the torrid pace that he set in the first three games thus far, I don't see any reason why the Heisman hype would die down. He's basically on pace to throw 3,000 yards and run for over 1,000 yards which is quite ridiculous. Throw in with a 70% completion percentage and high number of TDs whether if it's passing or running plus low number of INTs. I don't see how Denard is going to lose it unless he's hurt, or he regressed big time.
September 21st, 2010 at 7:15 PM ^
I seem to recall Woody Danzler getting a lot of Heisman mention due to similar stas with Clemson. Although he never won it, i think that's because Clemson never went better than 6-6 when he was there (not counting 1997 when he was redshirting). if you can stay in the conversation, you always have a chance.
September 21st, 2010 at 3:20 PM ^
Vegas disagrees with you.
September 21st, 2010 at 3:36 PM ^
I'm surprised nobody mentioned the fact that Tebow won the trophy as a sophomore on an 8-4 Florida team. It's not unprecedented. If the media takes notice, and the voters being to follow him weekly, he has a good shot.
September 21st, 2010 at 5:12 PM ^
True, but Florida won the NC the previous season and Tebow was anointed the future star of that team from the moment he arrived on campus. Robinson didn't have nearly as much hype when he got here and we haven't even played in a bowl the previous two seasons.
But it's true that because the Michigan name still carries some weight, he has a better chance than if he were putting up crazy numbers playing for a less prestigious program that was coming off a couple of bad seasons.
September 21st, 2010 at 3:45 PM ^
If Denard continues to play the way he's been, do not rule out the possibility of us going to a very good bowl.
September 21st, 2010 at 4:07 PM ^
May I remind Mgoposters of the Denard interview after the Notre Dame game.
"I just decided it was time to put it away." (Paraphrase.)
At this point, no one has shown themselves to be able to prevent this. I know that sounds ridiculous. But whether it's RR's play calling or Denards ownage, we have gotten points when we needed them. The Defense will bite us in the ass a couple times. That said, if those timely points keep coming, a very solid bowl is a distinct possibility.
September 21st, 2010 at 4:45 PM ^
This statement is true. That is obviously why Pryor is at the top of a lot of lists. Put Pryor on a team like Baylor or Kansas and his stats would be atrocious. However since he's at TUOS his performances of 12-27 get un-noticed because the team is far better then Pryor is as an individual. Tebow in 07' put up absolutely disgusting numbers to where they had no choice but to give it to him. Denard is on that same pace, and if he continues to do so as long as we don't finish with more then 4 losses I really like his chances. If Pryor wins the heisman it would be the greatest injustice perhaps of all time.
September 21st, 2010 at 5:19 PM ^
Denard will get nominated for the heisman this year but won't win it because we went 7-5. Next year however we will finish top ten and Denard will win the heisman in a land slide and then we will win a BCS bowl game.
September 27th, 2010 at 8:51 PM ^
however, I think as long as we stay in the rankings, he will always be in the conversation. Not to mention, even though I agree with you that the Heisman is awarded to a great player on a great team, anyone will have a hard time over looking what he will have done if we win 9 or 10 games. GO BLUE!!