Championship watch: Gophers getting 6 tonight

Submitted by ClearEyesFullHart on

     Sparty makes his way to the barn tonight at 8:30 Eastern for a matchup with Tubby Smith's golden gophers in a matchup that could put Michigan in the driver's seat for a big ten championship.

     The spartans enter as 6 point favorites, and they obviously know their way around a barn, but it is a road game in the big ten, and if the gophers can find a way to hold onto the ball and big ten officiating holds to form they just might win one for the good guys.

     The numbers are somewhat stacked against the gophers, but Julian Welch is on somewhat of a tear, going 7-12 overall and 5-10 from downtown against Northwestern.

     Sparty is going to have to slip up for Michigan to have a shot, and their games at Indiana and against Ohio loom large in Michigan's hopes for a B1G championship...But a win by the gophers would certainly be huge--both for their ncaa hopes as well as Michigan's.

     I guess what I am trying to say is...

 

Lionsfan

February 22nd, 2012 at 10:35 AM ^

If Minny pulls off the upset then I think we would have a real shot for a solo Big Ten championship. I don't think MSU will get out of Assembly Hall, and I think they're going to knock off OSU again.

Blazefire

February 22nd, 2012 at 10:37 AM ^

Earlier, I caught myself making a note to watch the MSU-OSU game and actually root for OSU. First we're saying "Gopher it", then we're rooting for OSU... being in the championship hunt in basketball is making me feel dirty.

I guess if MSU takes a key loss or two, I don't need to root for OSU OR MSU... there, I feel better.

YoungGeezy

February 22nd, 2012 at 10:54 AM ^

A three way tie with MSU and OSU would be almost as bad as having us blow one of our final games.

Hoefully we get some help and can win the B1G Championship solo-dolo.

a2bluefan

February 22nd, 2012 at 11:36 AM ^

As someone who lived through the 1992 football season when we went 9-0-3 (ties against both ND and OSU, as well as Illinois)... trust me, I hate a damned tie. But given that this year's hoops team was expected to finish like 5th in the Big Ten, I'll take a 3-way tie for the conference championship and be happy about it!

RoxyMtnHiM

February 22nd, 2012 at 11:27 AM ^

On #4, the only thing I can root for is the earth to open up and swallow the arena whole, and that's the problem with anything but worrying about our guys and our games and letting the rest play itself out.

That said, all four of those things, plus a couple other possiblities that get us a piece of the championship, are all very plausible.

Did we come out of the half last night and play like Beilein had told them, Your playing for your B1G championship right now in these next 20 minutes? I thought so.

jmblue

February 22nd, 2012 at 11:42 AM ^

No-win scenario?  It's absolutely in our interests for OSU to win at MSU.  I have no problem rooting for the Buckeyes when it benefits us.  The rivalry stuff should go out the door when Michigan needs help in the standings.

Side benefit: if MSU loses at home, we'll have the longest home winning streak in the conference.

ZooWolverine

February 22nd, 2012 at 5:12 PM ^

If MSU is still a game ahead, I have no problem cheering for the Buckeyes--self-interested cheering for evil is just fine by me.

One of the best parts of the MSU-OSU game is that it's the last game of the season, so you know with certainty what you want to happen. If the game was tonight, it would be theoretically possible that State drops 2 games later, and we actually wanted MSU to win the game in retrospect. But, with it being the last game, if MSU does drop those 2 games somehow, we know to happily cheer for the Spartans to break our tie with OSU. If State has won every game up to the end, it's not that we're in better shape if OSU wins, it's that they must win for us to get the co-championship, and I'll be cheering like crazy for the Buckeyes. Well, for a stadium collapse primarily, but for the Buckeyes to be ahead when it collapses.

saveferris

February 22nd, 2012 at 12:06 PM ^

Only a Spartan would put petty institutional hatred of a rival ahead of personal glory.  If we need OSU to beat MSU to assure us a piece of a Big 10 title, then brother, I am rooting for OSU and feeling zero guilt about it.

jtmc33

February 22nd, 2012 at 11:16 AM ^

There are two champions -- regular season (which can be co-champions) and the tournament champion.    Both get banners.  

The tournament champion gets the automatic bid (but in the history of the Big tournament no team has won it that otherwise would not have been invited to The Big Dance... Illinois as a #10 seed lost in the finals a few years back.  Otherwise, it's always been a "lock" that received the automatic bid).

We haven't won the Big 10 regular season championship since 1986.  According to history* we have never won the Big 10 tournament.

Meeze wants moarz maize banners

jmblue

February 22nd, 2012 at 11:24 AM ^

The tournament champion gets the automatic bid (but in the history of the Big tournament no team has won it that otherwise would not have been invited to The Big Dance... Illinois as a #10 seed lost in the finals a few years back. Otherwise, it's always been a "lock" that received the automatic bid).

There was one Cinderella (sort of) - Iowa won the BTT as a #6 seed in 2001. They may not have gotten in otherwise (they were 7-9 in league play that year).

jtmc33

February 22nd, 2012 at 11:10 AM ^

This game is in the same catagory as last nights.... the road favorite playing to keep its chance at a league title alive and the home dog needing the win for its bubble resume' "GW" and to avoid an 11th loss and to keep its hopes for a .500 league record.  

Sparty has won 5 in a row and can win the league outright by winning out versus the Gophers being 2 losses away from the NIT.   

Gophers in OT.

Needs

February 22nd, 2012 at 11:41 AM ^

And much like last night, this is a matchup of very similar teams where the road team has a slight but consistent advantage in most statistical categories. MSU's biggest advantages lie in their efficiency stats, where they're going 1.10/0.92 PPP/OPPP vs Minny's 1.01/1.04.

But when you dig into the other stats, you see teams that are pretty close. [All stats here have MSU first]

-Both teams get to the line in similar numbers (587/564 FTA)

-They shoot almost identical %s from the floor (.475/.470) and from 3 (.353/.352). Both teams also pound it inside, being 10th and 11th in 3's attempted. (We've taken 250 more 3s than MSU).

-They are also both in the top third in defensive FG %, with MSU leading the league at an ungodly .371, but Minny in 4th at .414.

-They're both negative in turnover margin (-.19/-.74) though Minny's averaging slightly more than half a turnover a game more.

-They're tied atop the league in assists per game at 15.7

-They lead the league in blocked shots (4.4/5.1) and offensive rebound percentage (.395/.363)

-The biggest gap lies in defensive rebounding. Where MSU's 2nd in the league in defensive rebound %, Minnesota is 11th, ahead of only Northwestern.

 

It seems like if Minny can keep MSU from killing them on the offensive boards, this will go down to the wire. The matchup is far closer than their relative place in the conference standings would lead you to believe. Throw in the weird aspects of playing in the Barn and a team playing for its tournament life, and Minny's got a definite shot at pulling the upset.