I honestly don't see him as the 16th pick this year. Doesn't he need some more development time? or am I totally missing something?
Chad Ford Big Board NBA Draft update
I agree, and I hope you're right.
you're totalling missing that the NBA drafts based on potential first and production second.
Some NBA team will draft him in the first round based off that 360 minnesota dunk alone.
production matters much more than people seem to think.
Everyone said last year that Burke would never be more than a late first round pick because of his size.
Now he is a conensus lottery pick based on this years production
Well, in Burke's case, it is not just an increase in production that has caused the increase in his draft stock. He has clearly become an all-around better player. He showed the potential before, but now he seems like a safer pick.
more than potential. Last year he had potential, this year he achieved production.
You just won.
I don't think the two can be totally seperated...I think this would be the order that the NBA drafted guys
HIGH - potential AND production
Medium - potential but little production
low - production but little potential
Hello Europe - little production AND little potential
I would say last year Trey fell in between High and Medium, but this year has put himself firmly in the High group. GRIII is firmly in the Medium group right now, but would surely move himself up to the high group next year.
I think the key is that production vs. potential depends on the age and position:
- If you're a 5' 11ish point guard (a la Trey) or 7 foot center that isn't an athletic freak (a la Withey), you will likely have to produce.
- If you're a 7 foot athletic freak (a la Noel) or a 6'4" PG (a la MCW), you don't necessarily have to produce. Just be a freak with potential. Try not to get injured (although as Noel being #1 shows, may still not matter).
- If you're a 7 footer that can run and has a great freshman year but returns another year and doesn't DOMINATE capital D (a la Zeller), scouts start doubting.
Ideally, you draft Kevin Durant: A 6'9" guard that averaged 24 points, 10 rebounds and hits 41% from three his freshman year. Comparing Trey to guys of freakish size and athleticism when comparing how appealing they are to NBA teams in the draft is apples and oranges.
The NBA mainly cares about potential, not accomplishments. Consider that Daniel Orton from Kentucky was a 1st round pick even though he was a one-and-done backup at Kentucky and barely played in college. These are his stats from his only season, yet was a first round draft pick:
Just in case thats hard to read, thats 13 minutes a game with 3 points, 3 rebounds, half an assist, 1.4 blocks. IN COLLEGE. Those are attrocious numbers even if you extrapolate them to a starter's minutes.
GR3's famous father doesn't hurt either, gives GMs an excuse to take a flier on him given his frame.
Take a player like Arizona's Derrick Williams who played himself to the second pick, despite not having a clear position to play in the NBA. Many scouts were worried that his size was not an ideal fit for the NBA, but the TWolves gambled on him because he played so well for Arizona.
Super athletic, muscular 6'6" guy looks like an NBA player.
I think he could really benefit from at least another year here. His scoring this year is almost 100% setup by Trey. Basically Trey does all the work to draw the defenders and then he just gives it to GRIII for the easy slam. With Trey very presumably gone, GRIII could really develop his ability to create his own points next year
I haven't seen much out of GRIII when UM has played the top level big ten teams to make me think he's ready to make the jump to the pros. When you consistently disappear against the best teams on the schedule, it makes me think he'd be spending a lot of time on the bench in the nba.
If his dad managed his money right, the money factor shouldn't way to heavily in his decision making process.
Is playing out of position for Michigan though. He won't be playing against 4's in the NBA, and his athleticism should help him a lot more in the NBA than it does against big 4's right now. At the same time, NBA scouts should be worried about him against the bigger 3's in the league, but then again, who can really stop the KDs and LeBrons of the world?
thing though, nobody knows what he is. Is he a 3 that cannot create his own shot? There is no such thing in the NBA. I don't see good things in the NBA for him if he leaves this year. I don't think teams wait for players to develop that long if they don't have one thing to hang their hat on at the outset. I mean, if he goes, what he is going to do? What is his role on a team? Sharp shooter? No. Lock down defender? No. Off the dribble specialist? Nope. Slasher with mutiple ways to finish at the rim? Nope, not yet at least.
I think he is a nice complimentary player right now and could develop into a very good player, but this simply cannot be ascertained yet. I think the team that drafts him is rolling the dice big time. Right now I would draft Hardaway over Robinson. You at least have some idea what you are drafting.
If GR3 had visions of being a 1-and-done, then he hurt himself by coming to Michigan, where I'd assume Beilein told him he'd be guarding the 4. For all we know, GR3 could be a very solid on-ball, perimeter defender. He just hasn't had the chance to demonstrate that part of his game because of where we ask him to play. And his shortcomings on the defensive end against bigger players only hurt his draft prospects.
If I am an NBA scout trying to justify using a first round pick on GR3, aside from his athleticism and high-ceiling that creates, the proven part of his game that I look to is his finishing at the rim. He is already an elite finisher, and that will translate to the NBA.
But yes, he should definitely stay another year and work on his shot. And as many people have already said, next year he will be a focal point of the offense, which will give him more of a chance to show what he can do to create his own shot.
right in the sense that he is a very stylish and capable finisher when the opportunity presents itself, but I disagree that he is an elite finisher right now. He has one gear right now and that is the "dunk on yo face" gear. He is very raw in terms of improving his position with the ball inside, pump faking, and finding multiple ways to score in traffic. i am actually very interested to see how Robinson performs against this beast from Kansas. That could tell pro scouts a great deal.
What's their rush? I know neither is definitely leaving, and I'd guess less than 50% chance for both, but why would they? Both of their families are clearly very well off (thank you daddies), and college has to be more fun than the NBA if you take the money out of the equation. These guys should stick around, have fun, get a degree and develop into lottery picks. The threat of a career-ending injury just isn't the same motivation as it is in football.
Just because they played in the NBA doesn't mean they are still rich. We don't know anything about their familiy finances. Consider the following article (you can find a ton more by googling, this isnt the only source):
Dam that was a low blow.
It's easy to say that, when you aren't the one with Millions on the way.
THJs dad is an NBA scout. I trust they'll be informed enough to make the right decision. It's their decision and their life. Beileins got this thing rolling now. We'll be fine.
Both of their families are clearly very well off (thank you daddies), and college has to be more fun than the NBA if you take the money out of the equation. These guys should stick around, have fun, get a degree and develop into lottery picks.
No offense to you but whenever I see something like this on MGoBlog, I shake my head.
These kids grow up dreaming of the NBA. It's what drives them, keeps them in the gyms on those lonely nights. It's what they dream about. it's the reason they play.
Getting paid to play basketball > attending classes and doing it for free (cost of education aside) GENERALLY speaking. A great university experience that Michigan, UNC, Kansas, and other such schools provide doesn't ultimately change that.
The money that you can make in the nba also >>> what you can make with a degree. And you don't develop into a lottery pick unless you truly blow up the scene (like Trey did). It's potential first and everything after.
The NBA Draft and NFL draft are totally different beasts. Making money in the NFL requires 3-4 years of hard work in college. the NBA is different. They'll develop you in the league for the most part.
Why should THJ stick around other than simply because he wants to?
What more does he have to prove? Is he going to get THAT much better?
He'd hurt his draft stock for sure as the older you get, the more you drop in the draft.
GRIII makes sense because he's still on the front side of his "draft peak," but THJ is AT that peak. Of course I want him to stay, but it has nothing to do with development (or a degree, which he'd still be close to earning if he left).
another year would hurt THJ. Yeah, the draft is gonna be more top-heavy next year, but THJ should still be able to guarantee a spot in the draft if he stays another year. And hey, he may even play himself up a little bit more.
Obviously, the NBA dream will be a huge factor in his decision. But I hope he finishes his degree and comes back another year. When he's on, there are few people who are more fun to watch in all of college bball.
He's going to get drafted whether he goes this year or next year. We all know that. That's not the point.
The point is, when is he going to get drafted the highest?
The answer, this year.
Last year he was a 2nd round pick, this year he's a 1st. If he stays, he likely goes back to the 2nd round.
Do I have a crystal ball? No. But what has THJ shown that says he hasn't just about maxed out his potential? He's had a GREAT year. He's an intrigual part of the offense, so where is there room for growth?
With GRIII it's clear, he'll be more of a focal point in the offense, he will have a chance to refine his game, he'll have to be more aggressive, his numbers will all go up, he'll physically be bigger and stronger. All of those are clear.
With THJ, he's pretty maxed out. Staying would just be a luxury because he wanted to, and if he does, more power to him! I'd LOVE to have him another year.
But it's just like Taylor Lewan, he didn't come back because he's going to get THAT much better. He was already an All American and he would've likely been top 10 this year. He could actually get drafted LOWER next year because it'll be a better draft class.
And that's football, where staying doesn't really hurt you like it does in basketball. The majority of the NBA Draft is about potential. Which is why GRIII is so highly regarded.
Robinson will stay at least one more year. Burke will still weigh his options thuroughly. Don't give up so quickly on the idea that he stays another year.
Burke is gone man, as he should be. This is a good thing - we are starting to put guys into the top of the draft. Who was our last guy to go Top 10? Traylor?
I hear ya there, but we all thought Lewan was going too.
The NBA and NFL drafts are so different though. There are 2 rounds in the NBA draft and contracts are only guaranteed in the 1st round. You've got to strike while the iron is hot and Burkes stock is sky high right now - He's probably going to win the frickin Wooden award.
It's just a much riskier prospect for Burke to come back as it is for Lewan both stock-wise and injury-wise.
Still has room to improve his stock. Burke has done everything he can to impress NBA front offices. Especially in the NBA, where your draft value can cool rapidly, Burke would only have room to go down by staying another year
I didn't think he was and I think there were numerous people on this board alone that thought it was 50/50. In fact there were various people convinced he was staying...I didn't necessarily believe that either, but to say "we all thought Lewan was goin too" is inaccurate.
Taylor hadn't done or said anything to indicate he was leaning one way or the other.
Jamal Crawford? Wasn't he number 6 or 8 or so in 2000?
You speak so matter of fact. I'm just wondering how you know this?
I've seen or heard nothing that said Robinson will indeed stay...and there's nothing to indicate Burke will think twice. Hell up until the tourney, I'd say Burke was halfway out the door.
Burke is a perfect example of what can happen when you come back for a 2nd year. Went from borderline 1st rounder to Top 10 lock. I assume he'll give GR3 some advice
didn't help himself by staying one extra year. He went from a possible projected lottery pick to late 1st round. Trey Burke almost went because of it.
Sullinger was a extremely polished player who was athletically limited.
GR3 is the opposite - an extremely raw player who has incredible athleticism.
Sullinger had no room to improve in the college game, so he hurt himself by coming back. GR3 has plenty of room to show improvement which will make his stock skyrocket (if he works on his game of course).
Trey would tell him both side of the coins which is him and his best friend.
Exactly. Sullinger was the focus of OSUs team and would have been Top 5 if he came out after his Freshman year.
That is not the case with GR3. He will be a much larger part of the offense next year and his stock should keep rising as he becomes more productive
He could have improved a lot by coming back the extra year. If he would have developed a mid range jump shot, he probably would have gone higher.
They're completely different...GRIII's situation is strictly based off potential.
GRIII seems right at the point where it could go either way. If he's projected late first round or lower, seems like it makes sense to stay and move up. Anything solid in the lottery and it makes sense to bolt -- although staying can also be a good option, like it was for Zeller and Sullinger, who, despite being drafted perhaps lower, made a final four and seemed solid once he got to the pros.
Obviously it would be nice if THJr played another year, but I think we will be okay at 2-3 with Stauskas, Levert, and Irvin, as well as Spike being able to soak up some minutes there. I think we are less prepared at the 4. We could see some double post looks with Bielfeldt, McGary, or Morgan at the 4, and maybe Donnal will be ready.
I also think THJr is closer to reaching his potential physicall and mentally than GRIII, so staying an extra year would give GRIII more time to grow in a MIchigan uniform.
But one additional point I've heard discussed, and I don't know it's true - this year's draft is supposedly very weak. Next year's is projected to be much better. If true, eventually that's going to get into GRIII's thought process (I assume Burke is gone), as it should.
The players at Kentucky, right now, are caught between a rock and a hard place. They want to stay and develop themselves. But they are going to inevitably jump for two reasons
1) Next year's draft is much deeper
2) Kentucky's incoming class is much, much more talented than them
If they're caught sitting on the bench, they're done. because of this, they gotta take the leap. it's much the same for players across the country
I'm continually amazed at how NBA scouts seem to be misjudging Timmy. He has all the physical tools (height, quickness, shot mechanics, a good and improving handle) and the smarts (he's shown an ability to work on and improve areas of weakness). He's first team all-conference in the best conference in the country. If they draft on potential, they're missing the boat bigtime on Timmy. He has better physical tools than Harris, Mclemore or OIadipo.
I don't think Hardaway will stay another year regardless of his projected draft status. He's already performing at a lottery pick level so he can't do much more to change perceptions and there is some bias against four year college players in the draft.
I think Burke is more than gone as well. I think GR III should stay another year to work on his game but with current projections, it's probably 50/50 at best whether he stays.
He has all the physical tools (height, quickness, shot mechanics, a good and improving handle) and the smarts (he's shown an ability to work on and improve areas of weakness).
Take the handle off his list of strengths. he's adequate or so-so at best, honestly.
If they draft on potential, they're missing the boat bigtime on Timmy. He has better physical tools than Harris, Mclemore or OIadipo.
He's already performing at a lottery pick level
Dude...come on. If we were on an NBA message board you'd be ripped for those statements.
If Tim hardaway JR.s name was Chuck jones from Detroit we'ld barely be talking about him. He's playing a little better offensively than he did last year but he is still a very streaky shooter and plays poorly on defense. Over all his game is pretty average, even if he stays another year unless he really puts some work in I don't see him getting drafted next year either.
I don't think there are many people who watch much NBA and think that Timmy has a promising future at the next level. He has the potential to score in bunches, and average NBA shooting guards suck these days...but Hardaway has been to streaky to be a reliable NBA scorer, his defense is average at best, and he is not super athletic. Regardless of when he leaves, his NBA career arc will probably resemble DMo's
because first team All-conference in the best conference in the country doesn't mean anything about his ability or potential.
Name one person who was on the All Big Ten first team in the past few years that is doing anything notable in the NBA.
for god's sake, look at Evan Turner. I thought he would be a stud. Guy's going backwards and might be out of the league at this pace.
it truly doesn't. I said my piece. He got where he is off of name recognition and average ability. It's my opinion and i'm not an nba scout
We wouldn't be talking about a guy who scores 15 points per game and shoots almost 40% from three? I don't care what his name is - Manny Harris, Darius Morris DeShawn Sims, Lavell Blanchard, Dion Harris, Lester Abram - Michigan fans would be talking about a guy with Hardaway's level of talent and athleticism. It just so happens that Michigan recently landed some talent that surpasses him.
In fact, I would venture a guess that over the last decade or so, Michigan fans would have talked about Hardaway, Jr. even MORE than they do now.
"If Tim hardaway JR.s name was Chuck jones from Detroit we'ld barely be talking about him."
What a COMPLETELY misguided statement. Hardaway is one of the better players in the B1G and he's CARRIED our team for long stretches this year.
He's a classic case of solid at everything, elite at nothing. But to say "we'd barely be talking about him" is trolling at its finest.
Evan Turner, Brandon Roy...very similar players to THJ. Just all-around type players. They both were better, but THJ is still very good in his own right.
I can't believe some of the comments about Hardaway in this thread. I'm actually shocked.
If this was last year? You guys are dead on. He barely played defense, he couldn't dribble, he was a poor leader and his shot selection was only a couple notches below DJ Byrd and that kid from Ole Miss.
This year? My God, it's like watching a new player. He does ALL the little things. He gets his teammates in place on offense, he sets the defense, he can bring the ball up the floor vs. VCU! His shot selection is a ton better. He guards the other teams best perimeter player often. He finishes at the rim better, he shoots better. What more do you all want?
NBA Superstar? Hell no. But solid player? Yes indeed. There is no reason why THJ can't give a contribution in the league somewhere between Wayne Ellington and Daequan Cook. FYI - BOTH players were drafted at the end of the 1st round.
that Evan Turner is better than THJ, then you probably shouldn't predict THJ to be a solid NBA player.
He IS better than THJ...
And I was talking about guys who are good at a lot of things, but not really elite at anything. I don't think you read before you made your comment.
and Evan Turner would hardly qualify as a solid NBA player. So if you think Turner is better than THJ, then you shouldn't think that THJ will be a solid NBA player...
Straw-pickin heathen! He's referring to Evan Turner in college, who now has underwhelmed in the league to this point.
We're talking about where THJ is going to get drafted, not how he's going to do in the league.
And the Turner comment had nothing to do with either of those...that was about a player who was good at everything elite at nothing being able to get drafted.
Where did I ever compare Turner to THJ to say he was going to be a solid NBA player?
Please show me.
You can't, because I didn't.
"Evan Turner, Brandon Roy...very similar players to THJ. Just all-around type players. They both were better, but THJ is still very good in his own right."
That is ALL I said. Two players who are all-around players. I was comparing PLAYING STYLE.
We compare Trey Burke to Chris Paul every day, no one is saying Burke is better.
In fact, if you literally would've read my post. I said "There is no reason why THJ can't give a contribution in the league somewhere between Wayne Ellington and Daequan Cook. FYI - BOTH players were drafted at the end of the 1st round."
That was the ONLY thing I said about NBA contributions. Evan Turner is not mentioned.
are not good things, Dude. NBA scouts are notorious for huge misses on the upside and the downside when it comes to the draft. I think it's tunnel vision and groupthink.
So I don't care if the sheep on an NBA message board agree with me.
Try instead to think independently.
As for Hardaway's handle, his problems seem to be more mental than physical - he's shown both an ability to run the break extremely effectively and get to the rim consistently in the half court.
I don't know whether he'll succeed at the NBA level but he's clearly a much better prospect than scouts currently realize.
So I don't care if the sheep on an NBA message board agree with me. Try instead to think independently.
Is this your justification for ranking Hardaway above Harris (same production as THJ as a freshman) McLemore (jaw dropping potential) and Oladipo (radically improved, Big 10 DPOY)? All three?
I don't even have to debate this with you. You are literally the only one who feels this way. I love Hardaway but I see him firmly in the NBA "rotation player" category. And that aint an insult.
Scouts are notorious for misses and group think
Ah, the good old "the scouts whiffed on one guy means they whiff on lots of guys, especially my guy" argument.
Maybe you should get into the NBA scouting business. As for me, I'll keep being a sheep.
"You are literally the only one who feels this way."
So you just did a poll of every basketball fan/player/analyst/scout? Impressive.
By they way, scouts don't just occasionally whiff on guys, they routinely whiff and they whiff big time. So I question relying on their opinion as fool-proof.
As for the 3 players discussed above, I just don't think there's good evidence to project them as clearly better prospects than Hardaway. They may be but the evidence just isn't there.
NBAdraft.net projects Hardaway as the #19 pick, only 5 spots below the lottery. So somebody agrees with me on his NBA potential.
I don't agree with that take on Hardaway. He shoots 39%/50%/70%. He doesn't get to the line much. His handle is improving but is still not that good for an NBA prospect. He's OK as a defender but not much more than OK. He's not a particularly good passer and has more turnovers than assists. His freshman and junior years he put up ORtings of 108 and was worse his sophomore year. Seems like a good kid and has the intangibles in that he wants the shot and is a bit of a leader on the team. But overall he's basically a streaky shooting high usage above average college SG with NBA size. That's a skillset that generally winds up in being a 2nd round pick and being a backup in the NBA. That is pretty damn good overall as that is not a bad life to live but it doesn't make him worthy of a high draft pick. He needs to either improve his game all around by making another step forward next year to build on what he did this year. Or he needs to simply make more shoots and in particular become better at creating his own shot.
No way he has better physical tools than Oladipo. Vitale's comparison of Oladipo to Jordan is over the top but Oladipo can still jump out of the gym and is way better off the bounce than Hardaway.
but having watched him play for 3 years I would disagree with some aspects. His overall shooting has been good but not spectacular but his shot mechanics seem superb. His passing has been superb and often spectacular.
I think the ingredients for success in the NBA are a combination of raw physical ability and intangibles (smarts, work ethic, drive). With his size and quickness, he passes the first test with flying colors. His improvement over 3 years from a 3 star prospect to all Big Ten first teamer with continued improvement on his weaknesses proves he passes the second test.
Who knows whether this will lead to great success at the next level? Nobody. But the data suggests that he is a far better NBA prospect than his current projected draft status. There are numerous players lacking in the above ingredients but rated above him in draft projections.
As for Oladipo, I just don't get it. He's a very good player but seems vastly overrated. He does some things better than Hardaway and some things worse. Plus, Timmy has a couple inches on him.
Oladipo is known for athleticism (see the missed dunk when we went to Indiana), defense (top level), and top level ball handling. he can also shoot it decently. It's no conindence that he's willed himself to become the #1 option on a team with Cody Zeller and Christian Watford.
Will say it again. I expect 2 out of 3 of Trey, Tim, and Glenn to declare this year. I further expect 1 of those two to be Trey. I'm not trying to be doom and gloom, and I know it's silly to speculate before they are even considering the decision, but I want to be realistic-ish and set my expectations at a point where I can be pleasantly surprised.
The biggest loss if one of those three declares will be Glenn. Yes, Trey is an All-America Point Guard, but we don't have anyone else on next year's roster (counting 2013 commits) that can play the 4 reliably in a Beilein system. Here's hoping GRIII sticks around one more year to improve his handle and overall game to complement his NBA ready athleticism.
I'm not surprised about Kentucky. Calipari has committed to building his team the opposite of how Michigan does. JB recruits a good mix of role players and elite recruits, while developing them and encouraging them to do what is best for their development. This usually builds a consistent program and fosters team play.
Calipari buys one and dones, tells them they are prepping for the NBA, and rolls the ball out onto the floor. This is a recipe for underachievement as a team. They will win a lot of games on sheer talent, but if it doesn't fit together or play together, they are due for a year like this one.
This UK team is typical of the talent level they expect, but there is no team component: UK is nothing more than the sum of their parts.
Burke said on The Dan Patrick show that if we win the Natty he is prob gone, otherwise all bets are off and he might come back. Heres hoping for both!
IMO Burke's gone (and should be), GRII is probably gone (and should be) and THJ is going to stay (and should as well).
The wildcard that nobody's talking about is McGary. If he continues to play at the level he's shown the last two games and Michigan wins one or two more don't be surprised if he rockets up this chart as well.
But I agree with Omar - Coach Beilein has thing rolling. If they go, they'll be replaced and this is the price you pay for being an elite program with elite players.
And I was surprised he wasn't being listed on big boards more consistently for 2013 or 2014. However, I think he has the potential to severely improve his stock if he sticks around. We've seen that he's working on his mid-range game, but it's not quite there yet. Combine that with a more toned 250 pounds, and his already high motor and he should definitely be a clear first round pick.
1) Can't shoot
2) Has not shown any real post offense
3) Post defense is raw. Relies on hustle and is undisciplined.
4) Not great athlete and not great size
These factors lead me to believe we'll have him for 3-4 years and that he will be one of the most dominating players in the Big Ten for a couple of years
Please understand that I definitely WANT McGary to come back (as I do GRII, THJ and Burke for that matter) but I do think his stock will rise significantly IF we win the next couple of games and IF he plays at the level he's shown in the first two tourny games.
I mean look at the projected #1 pick in the draft and tell me which of these other than your very last point wouldnt apply even more to Noel (and he has a shredded ACL to deal with):
1) Can't shoot
2) Has not shown any real post offense
3) Post defense is raw. Relies on hustle and is undisciplined.
4) Not great athlete and not great size
In terms of draft prospects, #4>>> #1+2+3. Noel is is a great athlete, so that ACL injury is potentially crippling (punny) for his draft status. Noel was also shaping into a monster post defender, and used his athleticism to block and alter drives. Post offense and shot are not that important for your draft prospects if you have size and athleticism. Bismack Byombo was a top ten pick, and that dude had only played bball for like 2 years.
Since McGary isn't an elite athlete, and his size isn't ideal for the 5, he needs to show out on his shooting ability, post ability, and/or post defense. His high motor will serve him well in the NBA, but it won't get him as much love as developing a consistent shot from the elbow would...
he likes college.
It would be a mistake for McGary to leave. He needs to work on his free throw shooting and his face-up game. He's decent around the basket, but right now he's pushing around underdeveloped guys in the Big Ten. He reminds me a little bit of Tyler Hansbrough - decently skilled and a beast (physically) in college, but not quite the same mismatch in the NBA.
I also think Glenn Robinson III needs to return. He only shoots 34% on threes and 67% on free throws, and I think he needs to work on creating for himself off the dribble in the half court offense. For a 6'6" guy who's too short/slight to do much in the post, he's a little small for a SF and probably not quite as athetic as a lot of shooting guards. I think he's probably a SF at the next level, but his shooting isn't up to par just yet. I could see him being a lottery pick in the next year or two, but #16 is pretty high for his production and what he's shown.
he doesn't have the temperment yet for the NBA (unlike Burke, who is mentally tough, aggressive and confident).
I can't imagine him going against pros next year. Stay in school another year and he's a top ten pick just like Burke.
Leaving early can be disasterous if you are not ready. In he NBA there are 82 games and if you get on a good team the potential for another 10-12. Throw in preseason games and that means you have about 100 days when you are not practicing. Thow in travel days and the number goes up even higher. If you know what you are doing and are a finished product this is not a big deal. Howevr, if you have to work on major components of your game its not going to get done sitting on the end of the bench watching 100 games.
You learn your game with practice and game situations. A raw talent like Robinson the III is being projected as a mid round pick. That means he is projected to be drafted by a playoff team. So a coach is going to commit to Robinson learning the ropes while watching his playoff hopes and his job get dashed. It is not going to happen. The way declaring early helps Robinson is if he knows deep down he does not have game and he just wants to get that first big contract.
If Robinson is half as good as everyone says he will play himself into a lottery pick next year. So he can declare early and get taken late in the 1st round and sit on the bench for the entire year and stagnating collecting a mediore contract or wait a year, be a lottery pick, get a big contract, and most likely be a starter on day one for the team that picks him.
The NFL and NBA are different in that because there are only 20 games(4 preseason) and 10 travel days, a player can be developed. There is a lot more practice time. The NBA and NHL are grinds. MLB has a minor league system to develop players. If your missing something, the coach is not going to have the time on a 4 games in 5 day west coast road trip to put you through basic training. A NFL staff can do that.
If this team beats Kansas and makes a run to the Final Four or Final game, there will be a much higher chance THJr and GRIII leave... If we should lose to Kansas, I am much less concerned about those two leaving.
I don't see Trey coming back, as much as I would love to have him return...
Have Michigan win it all and lose THJ GR3 and Trey or lose and all but Trey stay.
Where did he fall in that list?
Trey Burke - Mid/Late Lottery (THIS YEAR) [Kendall Marshall level buzz]
Tim Hardaway Jr. - Late 1st Round (THIS YEAR) [Wayne Ellington level buzz]
Glenn Robinson III - Mid Lottery (NEXT YEAR) [John Henson/Paul George level buzz]
Mitch McGary - Mid Lottery/Top 20 (2 YEARS FROM NOW) [Tyler Hanbrough level buzz]
Nik Stauskas - Mid/Late 2nd Round (3 YEARS FROM NOW) [Jon Diebler level buzz]
... we'll be blessed. Hansbrough won the Wooden award and was a four-year all-conference player. McGary making two all-B1G teams would be pretty sweet.
They might be stylistically similar, but Hansbrough dominated college ball. (The reason he didn't go higher in the NBA is the same reason that he's not that good there - he's not quick enough or a good enough shooter to play SF and is undersized for a post player at 6'9"/250.)
McGary is an inch taller and about the same weight. In order for him to have a good chance at the NBA, he'll have to show the ability to dominate college players the way Hansbrough did. He's not there yet, but he could be that guy if he keeps improving the way he has this year.
I said "buzz level" as in NBA draft stock. Hansbrough was a guy who was pretty much a lock to go 10-20th in the draft (he went 13th).
That was the only comparison I made. Just like I don't think THJ is Ellington, Ellington was an elite shooter and not much else. But his stock was "late 1st round" and that's where I think THJ would go this year.
Burke is NOTHING like Marshall and so on.
Personally, I think the McGary/Hansbrough comparison people always do is a little lazy. I certainly see it in spots (size somewhat, below the rim game, rebounding, hustle)...but he's definitely not Tyler 2.0 like some think.
that combine both "will he go" and "should he go":
I will take winning the tournament even if it means all three of them leave. Go blue!
When I see lists like this I can't figure out why the NBA isn't beating down the NCAA door begging to adopt with the NHL or MLB draft policy instead of this stupid 1-and-done rule.
Let's see, the first pick is a guy who can block shots and dunk and......and.....uh....is coming off major knee surgery.
And the 16th pick is a guy who disappeared for over a month during the middle of the conference season, going weeks without hitting a jump shot, looked lost on defense, and struggled to defend moderately athletic PF's in the Big Ten?
I love GR3 and I think he'll end up being a solid pro some day, but the fact that NBA teams are so interested in what they THINK a guy can be that they would hurry to draft them this high is mind boggling.
Now imagine a scenario where GR3 had already been drafted by a team but was free to stay in college another year or two while he honed his game until his NBA team had a place for them on their bench.
For the record, I think Burke and Hardaway are leaving but McGary (obviously) and GR3 are staying. GR3 probably leaves next year and then both Stauskas and McGary the year after. I also love that our rotation includes a bunch of guys who will be here for their entire careers like LeVert, Spike, Morgan, Horford, Bielfeldt, etc.
or anybody with an ESPN subscription, who does Chad Ford have at #4 & #5? If my calculations are correct, the Pistons have the fourth worst record (4th fewest wins) in the NBA as it currently stands. I know it goes by ping pong balls but still...
I've taken a liking to Marcus Smart from Ok St, big pg and with Brandon Knight moving over to 2 guard they can cross match-up on defense. Knight is too small to d up on NBA 2's so this will really help. Who knows what they will do with Calderon.
However, I feel a bigger need is at small forward, we literally have NOBODY at that position. I liked Otto Porter before he disappeared (along with the rest of the Hoyas) in the tourney and Victor O seems like a safe pick at 2 guard if Joe D wants to move Knight back to pg and go in that direction.
to get Porter. His defense would be a great addition to the team. His shot has also improved dramatically (look at his shooting stats from last year to last year--22% to 42% from three--and then drool over GR3 doing the same)
I think what's great is Trey can serve as a personal example of what can happen if you stay another year and build on your potential. I have no idea what Trey would tell GRIII to do, if they will even have that discussion (can't imagine they won't at some point), but I would imagine Trey considers it a good decision that he came back for a year. GRIII can look at Trey as a first-hand example as to why he should stick around for another year. Most players hear about it, but GRIII got to actually see it from someone he has a personal relationship with.
I love Trey Burke, but in his two years at M, his NCAA Tournament performances have been below par, when compared to his regular season performances. Ohio Bobcats last season, and South Dakota State and VCU this season, were not vintage Trey Burke outings.
I'd say the VCU game was a vintage Burke game. Sure he had 7 turnovers, but that's a result of the high pressure defense VCU runs every possession. He had about 3-4 turnovers in half court offense, which is about on par. He just had those extra 3-4 TOs due to the press.
Going into the VCU game, Trey had 69 turnovers in 34 games, or about 2 a game. Against VCU he had 7. I would not label that as vintage
Where is TH Jr?
But all the more reason to win as many games in THIS season as we can. There's no guarantee we'll be better next year, and odds are we'll be worse.
Hopefully four more games to play.