CFP Rankings Discussion Thread

Submitted by jonesie022 on

Set to be released tonight at 9:30pm.  What are your thoughts/predictions?  Same top four?  Big winners/losers?

alum96

November 17th, 2015 at 2:15 PM ^

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  1. Clemson   10-0 (1)
  2. Bama   9-1 (2)
  3. OSU  10-0 (3)
  4. ND   9-1 (4)
  5. Iowa   10-0 (5)
  6. Oklahoma   9-1 (12)
  7. Ok State   10-0 (8)
  8. Florida   9-1 (11)
  9. Baylor   8-1 (6)
  10. MSU   9-1 (13)
  11. UM   8-2 (14)
  12. FSU  8-2 (16)
  13. TCU  9-1 (15)
  14. North Carolina  9-1 (24)
  15. Houston 10-0 (23)

Some mix of Utah, Northwestern, Stanford, LSU, Navy,  in 16-20 slots.

Sauce Castillo

November 17th, 2015 at 2:17 PM ^

Baylor will plummet.  The first time they play a team with a winning record, and they got them at home, at night, and they lost.  There is nothing else on their resume thats says they are good.

Muttley

November 17th, 2015 at 4:31 PM ^

is MUCH lower than the marginal probability of us making the Playoffs given that we win the B1G.

FiveThirtyEight calculates a 14% likelihood of us winning the B1G and a 64% marginal probability of us making the playoffs should we win the B1G (9% / 14%).

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/booming-sooners-updated-college-foo…

Note that the only two loss teams with significant playoff chances are us and Stanford.  We are also the only two loss teams with significant chances of winning a conference title.  (At 8-2, it's still possible for Wisconsin to win the B1G, but that would require Iowa to lose its last two games, and so FiveThirtyEight gives Wiscy only a 1% chance of winning the B1G.)

 

MadMatt

November 17th, 2015 at 2:19 PM ^

Everybody (even Alabama has the SEC Championship Game) has a big game or three against key rival(s) they could lose.  "What if the season ended today?" is the stupidest question in sports.  It won't; check with me in 2 weeks.  AND, I'm not even sure we want to make the playoffs this season.  Yeah sure, OSU proved that any team can get hot for two games and shock the world, so any ticket to the sweepstakes is valuable because you never know.  That is one school of thought and there is game theory to back it up.  On the other hand, the most likely result is that this team's obvious weaknesses would get exploited in a non-competitive game in the first round.  Call me crazy, but if we run the table, I think I'd rather see the team play a winnable match-up in the Rose Bowl.

MGOTyrone

November 17th, 2015 at 2:43 PM ^

I've never understood this. Just because we don't make the playoffs doesn't mean we win the Rose Bowl. What happens if we go to the Rose and get blown out? I'll take whatever option gives us a chance at a national championship.

Ziff72

November 17th, 2015 at 3:30 PM ^

Don't want to make the playoff is mad, crazy, nuts, insane, ret(not pc anymore redacted), stupid, ridiculous, lunacy, absurd and not good.

Why are we on this blog 365?   To win the fucking NC.  

Before posting ask yourself this question.  What would Harbaugh think of your post?

Shame

Shame

Shame

Shame

Shame

Shame

Shame 

DGM06

November 17th, 2015 at 2:24 PM ^

Clemson and Alabama might switch places, but will still be the top 2, with Ohio St and Notre Dame rounding out the field. Oklahoma should make a huge jump, maybe as high as 5. Michigan will probably move up a little, but unlikely to jump all 4 top 10 teams that lost this past week. I'd say 12 for them. Baylor should drop a lot, as they've beaten exactly nobody.

SugarShane

November 17th, 2015 at 2:58 PM ^

Notre dames marquee win is navy. Maybe if they win at Stanford I'll see it, but right now there is no way they deserve to be top 4




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MichiganTeacher

November 17th, 2015 at 3:07 PM ^

I mean, they did play Clemson real close, at Clemson. Horrible weather, of course.

But I hear you. Especially because if that's what's putting ND in the top 4, then our game vs  MSU should give us a similar boost.

Perkis-Size Me

November 17th, 2015 at 3:52 PM ^

I'd say the top 4 remain unchanged, maybe Alabama and OSU switch places, but that's about it. Outside the top 4, I'd say Oklahoma could jump as high as 5-6. Iowa will continue to be on the outside looking in until they actually go and beat someone of note. Credit them for being 10-0, but they've beaten essentially no one.

Oklahoma may jump Notre Dame if it wins out. May. But if Ok State wins out, I'd expect them to jump Notre Dame. They'd be undefeated and their resume would be considerably more impressive.




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azian6er

November 17th, 2015 at 4:11 PM ^

Call me capt. Crazy, but I think we are all going to be shocked at the rankings tonight - in a GOOD way.

If committee sees MSU game as a tie, then we haven't really gotten beat since week one. Rudock is looking good and chesson is capital one impact performer of week. Committee knows that winning on the road isn't easy and that IU is probably the most underrated 4 win Team there is.

Everyone is fretting, but I think we slide into a cool #9

Just my opinion.

lilpenny1316

November 17th, 2015 at 5:02 PM ^

1. Clemson

2. Bama

3. OSU

4. Oklahoma

I just can't find the ND win that's better than Oklahoma's.

Also, I am officially glad the AP does not factor into the CFP rankings.  Jeff Seidel (FREEP writer) dropped us a few slots and kept Utah above us because they beat us 2 months ago.  I guess it doesn't matter who votes in that thing from the FREEP.  They stay under the bridge and troll all day.

Muttley

November 17th, 2015 at 8:19 PM ^

Oklahoma is the only B12 team that scheduled an OOC opponent w/ a pulse.  Should we win out, I think we would compare favorably to any other one-loss B12 team at 11-2.

 

Oklahoma Reg Season

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tbeindit

November 17th, 2015 at 5:06 PM ^

just for fun, I have been simulating the games the last few weeks to see what it would take for Michigan to make the playoff.

Last week, no matter what I did I kept ending up at #6 without picking a massive upset. However, with the three key losses above us last Saturdsy, what I'm looking at now is ending at #5 without a massive upset.

If another unexpected result or two happens this week, the playoff might really be in play. Obviously, the biggest boosts would be ND going down or the Big 12 continuing to eat itself.

uminks

November 17th, 2015 at 5:12 PM ^

1.)Clemson 10-0 (1)
2.)Bama 9-1 (2)
3.)OSU 10-0 (3)
4.)Iowa 10-0 (5)
5.)Ok St 10-0 (8)
6.)OU 9-1 (12)
7.)ND 9-1 (4)
8.)Florida 9-1 (11)
9.)Baylor 8-1 (6)
10.)MSU 9-1 (13)
11.)TCU 9-1 (15)
12.)NCU 9-1 (24)
13.)UM 8-2 (14)
14.)FSU 8-2 (16)
15.)Houston 10-0 (23)

MGoCombs

November 17th, 2015 at 6:13 PM ^

I know we don't like ND, but do you really think ND drops to 7 by winning? Not saying what deserves to happen, but clearly the committee thought they were worthy of being 4 last week, so what changed? I really don't see how OU jumps them with a bad Texas loss, especially considering the committee clearly isn't fooled by the Big 12s backloading technique.




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ehatch

November 17th, 2015 at 5:18 PM ^

The final four will come down to the Power 5 conferences:

ACC (Clemson/North Carolina)

SEC (Bama/Florida)

B1G (OSU/Iowa/MSU/UM)

Big XII (Oklahoma/OSU)

Pac-12 (Utah/Stanford)

Right now, it appears as though it will be the Pac-12 on the outside looking in.  My dream scenario is Notre Dame getting shut out with the committee basically saying, Maybe your arrogant ass should join a conference.  [Probably won't happen, so Go Cardinal!]

azian6er

November 17th, 2015 at 6:03 PM ^

If Clemson wins out and ND does as well - I feel as though the committee will take a 1 loss conf. Champ over ND just because the conf champ would have played and won a championship game. But pac 12 fucked that up soooooo.

Real Q is what happens if both pac-12 and big ten have 2 loss conf. Champions?.... Will both be snubbed?

Wolfman

November 17th, 2015 at 6:25 PM ^

If UM were to win the BIG, given your scenario, they would be trumped by a one loss ND team. ND has as much cache as UM and Kelly has proven this year that he has the depth with his desired talent. He is loaded with athletes, as evidenced by multiple successful RBs, wideouts and QBs this year alone. Their appearance in the championship game a couple of years ago was obviously premature,. but now BK and his team has demonstrated resilency and quality depth needed to be in the conversation of the four very best teams. Had the snapper not made a low snap, exacerbated by O'Neil's subsequent reaction, it would be a completely different conversation today because w/o that fluke play, UM might be positioned in the top four today.

However, IU, PSU, OSU and IA will be as tough of a four week stretch heading into the playoffs as any team in the nation, yes greater than whomever emerges from the Big 12. Personally, I don't think we have the depth in the front seven, or actually the talent currently with the injuries to win out. The job that JH has done to date has been great as we can all attest to, especially given the limitations on both sides of the ball in very key areas.

As for this evening's release I can easily see OU overtaking the Irish, given the committee's history and the very real fact they have been playing as well as anyone in the nation since the TX loss, barring possibly Bama, but there too we are aware they are in a different class. So I see no real shakeup with the top three remaining just that and possibly a switch between ND and OU. OSU(Stillwater) did no one, including themselves any favors this past weekend, except keeping their record unblemished and that's not an easy thing to do in any league. They should finish at no. 6 this week if my math is correct.

 

MGoCombs

November 17th, 2015 at 6:09 PM ^

I think PAC 12 is pretty much out. B1G winner will have 2 losses at most. Stanford is the only PAC team with a real shot because they have a chance to beat ND and move up, but would they really jump a 2 loss Mich that just beat 2 top 5 teams or any one loss B1G? Doubtful. I think this is down to ACC, SEC, B1G, B12, and ND, with Houston or P12 dark horses if chaos ensues.




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AC1997

November 17th, 2015 at 6:15 PM ^

Besides name recognition, why does OSU deserve to be ahead of Iowa? Curious what the board thinks of that.

This only matters two weeks from now anyway. The SEC will get a spot. Clemson will get a spot. An undefeated B10 team gets a spot while a 1-loss team has to sweat it out. ND needs help. The OK schools have to win this week so that the winner of their game gets a spot.

The Pac12 is out and Michigan has to run the table and get help....

WinThyGame

November 17th, 2015 at 6:37 PM ^

1. Clemson (although I think bama is the most complete team right now)

2. Alabama 

3. Ohio State

4. Notre Dame

5. Iowa

6. Oklahoma

7. Florida

8. Michigan State

9. Oklahoma State (sorry, Iowa State is a baddd team)

10. Baylor

11. Florida State

12. Michigan

13. North Carolina

14. Utah

15. Navy

Copey1050

November 17th, 2015 at 9:25 PM ^

Michigan will NOT jump Baylor.  

This is how I had it Sunday and I am sticking with it, although I could see Oklahoma State jumping Notre Dame.   You may not take North Carolina seriously, but if they beat Clemson, they've got a pretty good chance of getting in.   As much as we need Ohio State to beat MSU, we need Stanford to beat Notre Dame.     Ohio State was #14 at this time last year.   A lot of movement to come.   

1. Clemson (-)

2. Alabama (-)

3. Ohio St. (-)

4. Notre Dame (-) 

5. Oklahoma State (+3) 

6. Iowa (-1)

7. Florida (+4)

8. Oklahoma (+4) 

9. Michigan State (+4) 

10. Baylor (-4)

11. Michigan (+3) 

12. TCU (+3)

13. Florida State (+3) 

14. Stanford (-7)

15. North Carolina (+8) 

16. Northwestern (+2)

17. Utah (-7)

18. Navy (+2)

19. LSU (-10)

20. Houston (+4)

Copey1050

November 17th, 2015 at 9:27 PM ^

Iowa could complain about dropping after a win, but let's be honest, at this point if you are undefeated in a Power 5 and you win your conference championship - you are in.