CFP: Musical Chairs
It's a slow day on the Board and thought this might be an interesting topic. So, which Power 5 conference gets stiffed in the College Football Playoffs this year?
Personally, I like the fact that there are 4 spots and 5 main conferences + other possible conferences that could sneak in. At least one P5 conference will miss out every year. The Big 12 was odd man out in 2015 and the Pac 12 took the hit this past year.
So, which P5 conference loses this year's game of CFP musical chairs? My bet is that it's the ACC, based on overall weakness of the conference. Predictions?
While they will have 3 or more losses, they will still bitch about being left out.
ACC has Clemson and FSU among others. Good chance that one of them gets in. In fact, with Michigan having a tough road schedule and OSU and MSU possibly taking a step back, the B1G could be on the outside looking in. Pac12 may be questionable also.
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Maybe not if a 1 loss Iowa team wins the championship.
Never seen a two-year Ferentz in these parts before.
yeah nd is always the wild card with a lot of drama attached. Nothing would force them to join a conference, or for the playoff to expand, than for nd to be left out with 0-1 loss, or to knock out a 0-1 loss conference winner. Last year it very nearly happened had they beaten stanford
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I think it's the PAC 12 again.
SEC is going to be in, that's just the way it is these days.
It's going to be impossible to win the Big Ten East with more than one loss, and whichever team wins our division should be plenty strong enough to roll over the west division winner. Two spots filled.
The strength (or lack thereof) of the ACC actually plays into the hands of FSU and Clemson. They can skate through their schedule and have their matchup become a de-facto national quarterfinal. Unless Miami or UNC steps up with a big upset, it shouldn't be too hard to get a highly ranked, possibly undefeated ACC champ that will be a playoff lock, regardless of their SOS.
Similar things can be said for the Big 12 as the ACC. Oklahoma, Baylor, and to a lesser extent TCU seem to be the clear cream of the crop in that conference. If TCU falls off and OU and Baylor are able to pretty easily get through their schedules, that winner gets in without even having to play a CCG.
In the PAC, you've got depth, historical wackiness, and a tough championship game. They're also playing late night games that get less exposure, which doesn't help them in the rankings. On top of that, there isn't a team that seems primed to roll through the schedule. Stanford loses Hogan and everyone else has their own issues.
It will be close and it will come right after their expansion plans fall through because Texas and OU can't agree on the network $$. Is it wrong to hope for that? I like the drama when iit doesn't involve us.
I find your arguments very persuasive. I don't like the idea of a conference missing out two years in a row while the rest make it, but the Pac 12 does not have an obvious dominant team. Meanwhile, the other three non-B1G conferences are all top-heavy and should produce a team with a quality win or two and an acceptable record.
To be honest, the B1G could be worrisome. If Michigan runs the table, of course, we're in--but lose two of our tough road games and all bets are off for the whole conference. OSU could easily lose to Oklahoma early, drop one more game in the conference, and have no shot at the playoff. MSU is likely to regress. Nobody from the west is going to get any respect at all.
It could be Michigan or bust.
...So let's make it Michigan.
As long as it is Michigan - and we get in - I don't care what happens.
I will have to admit, it works to our advantage that OSU won the NC and beat the SEC champ while doing it. It puts the Big Ten toward the top of the CFP musical chair foodchain.
In case people forget, before that the Big Ten was viewed as one of the weakest conferences and would be among the first to be outside looking in.
A 0 or 1 loss Big Ten champ Michigan gets in the playoff. A 2 loss Michigan Big Ten Champ gets in only of there is chaos everywhere else.
If Michigan State wins the B1G again (they won't), then the B1G gets left out. It's going to take them a while to live down that shellacking Alabama gave them.
lazy antipathy toward MSU.
Pac12 I'm confident there will be a Stanford or Oregon that will rise above the rest oft he conference. Would put my money on either the Big10 (Michigan, OSU, MSU) or the Big12 (TCU, Oklahoma, Baylor) beating each other up and no single team having the resume... hopefully the Big12 and not us.
Only way i see this happening is michigan and iowa lose twice in conference play, ohio loses to oklahoma and in conference, and msu loses to notre dame and in conference. Between the 4 of them surely one will have 0-1 losses
Because this is our year of revenge. We will destroy our rival (and MSU) in their own house and hear the lamentations of their cheerleaders and truck drivers.
If I had to guess on who gets left out I'd say the Big 12. I think the SEC and Big 10 get in every year unless their champ has 2+ losses.
that keeps the Big 12 from losing out again so soon. To me, every conference other than the ACC can get a team in with 1 loss, which is why I picked the ACC to miss out.
I don't see Clemson making it again, and there isn't much depth in the ACC (save for FSU).
Like last season. I think the most likely times for politics to be a factor will be when one of the teams on the bubble is ND or from the SEC or when it would be the second team in from a conference.
Big 12 is getting left out this year. Last year they benefited by having a defacto play-in situation the way the schedules setup with their top teams playing each other in the last couple weeks of the season. However this year not so much. Im assuming we'll see the same two/three teams in OU, Baylor, and TCU, but they matchup earlier rather than later this time around.
A 1 loss Oklahoma that has beaten OSU will not be left out.
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It seems like the Big 12 has the largest inherent structural disadvantage as a conference, but as someone mentioned, last year they had what amounted to a play-in within the conference and managed to get themselves a spot in the top four. That being said, I'll go with the Big 12 by default for that and for the fact that - like the SEC - they don't usually load their OOC schedule with substance, although there are noted exceptions.
Will go a long ways towards determining whether or not the Big 12 gets in. If the Buckeyes win on the road in Norman, that may be all it takes for the Big 12 to be on the outside looking in.
I live for the day when the answer to OP's question is "SEC."
well when they started dropping like flies against mid majors and losing at home to teams that lost to mid majors, there was serious discussion of excluding them last year. If not for alabama turning things around, that would've happened
Unless the PAC 12 rep would be USC or UCLA, it'll be left out. Any other team out there will have to go undefeated, and I don't see that happening. The exception might be a one loss Stanford or Oregon - IF the B1G rep has 2 losses or comes from the West via a CCG upset.
they won't have to go undefeated when you look at baylor's schedule...any team other than oklahoma (and texas, but they suck) will be given a 1 loss disadvantage minimum against the other 4 conferences. We saw that plainly 2 years ago and last year up until baylor/tcu lost to make them indisputably out of the running
it'll be the texas conference again, unless a conference winner has 3-4 losses like pac-12 last year. The possible exception is oklahoma again, because they face ohio state, so they'll be given some leeway if they can win
having said that, i believe only usc or ucla has the potential to finish 11-1 or 10-2 to get the pac-12 in, and of course, usc faces alabama. I certainly hope one of those 3 will suceed to prevent a baylor type with god awful schedule getting in
One loss conference championship game winners are a lock to the CFP. The only scenario I see a team that meets that criteria getting left out is if the Big 12 has an undefeated champion.
The reason the Pac 12 was left out last season was because their champion, Stanford, had two losses. The reason the Big 12 was left out in 2014 was because both Baylor and TCU had one loss and the other four conference championship game winners had 0 or 1 loss.
a non-conf slate like Oklahoma's? They made it easy to leave them out with their joke of a schedule.
Okla, Ala, Mich, & FSU in final 4.
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Pac-12 rep mistakenly nominates UCLA, despite a 6-6 record, to represent the conference. Nomination results in giggles from playoff committee. Therefore, Pac-12 excluded.
It's science!
Both are possible since they're both dynamic players, but I doubt it.
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My concern is that politics plays into it and they don't want to leave the Pac 12 / Big 12 / ND out multiple times in only 3 years. It's stupid, but it could happen.
And if it does, you know it won't be the SEC they leave out. If it's Michigan as the champion of a Big Ten that is perceived as down, we will make a tempting target to all the people that want to see Harbaugh knocked down a peg. And you know there are many.
That's why it is not in our interest to root against OSU when they play OU and MSU when they play ND. It will be hard to avoid our default tendency, but we have to do it. Discipline people.