This doesn't pertain to the topic, but I was wondering what your account picture is of. (ImSoBlue)
CFN analyizes UM Schedule
I believe that's Allen (ND RB) running out of bounds on a play that otherwise would have been a TD.
That's what I thought it was.
After reading the article, I'm wondering how the guy is employed as writer. Can't remember the last time a writer tried so hard, as this one did with the Mike Vanderjagt joke.
I think we will win the UConn game, but it'll be close. I think we will beat ND too. They lost a lot more than we did. I think the MSU game is a toss up. They'll be pretty good, but their Oline and secondary are very questionable. We will need to be able to throw the ball to win. These 3 games are all really toss ups, but I think we will win 2 out of those 3 (although not necessarily losing to MSU). If we lose the Uconn game, our morale will be low and we would probably lose the ND game too. The UConn and MSU games are the 2 most important games of the year.
I see what your point is, but I still view Ohio State as the most important game of the year. I understand that UConn/MSU has the ability to set the tone for the season, but i think Ohio State is more important than MSU (either would be a Big Ten win, but a victory over Ohio State would change so much more for the program.)
I think the ND game is so much more dependant on Kelly and what he does with what he has than us. We'll have a good indication based on how they do vs Purdue the first week. Particularly the defense.
As for UConn - I was wary last year versus Western Michigan. I think we have the potential to do better earlier in the season because Tate and Denard will have an expanded playbook. It's when we get a little banged up, and have shown pretty much what we have playbook-wise that the wheels will come off.
If our offense can stay healthy for the MSU game, it will be a shoot out. We win in a shoot out.
I like how he puts both of the key games as toss ups. Way to go out on a limb there, buddy.
2 pretty definite: Wisco and that other game
1 likely : PSU (partly just cause of night/away game)
Then I see a whole bunch of toss ups with a couple gimmes. Not predicting 3 losses, just don't think I see 5 probable ones.
You don't see Iowa as a definite loss?
Heck no, Iowa blows. Also, it's our homecoming game and we all know how psyched the players get for those.
Iowa will be very good and they weren't very psyched two years ago when they got obliterated by Illinois in their Homecoming Game.
Did we even have a team 2 years ago? I can't remember.
Yes, that game went about as poorly as I've ever seen at the Big House.
IIRC, it was cold and rainy. I stayed anyway. It was my first season as a Michigan student, I felt obliged.
Same here, it was my first game as a student. My parents came down for the game, and it was my mom's first game at the Big House (not my dad's). I remember a guy yelling with a blow horn at Elbel on the way to the game, saying "Who the hell is Iowa" or something to that effect. It got ugly.
Why the hell would anyone see Iowa as a definite loss? We had a good chance to win last year on the road even after all that went wrong with injuries/turnovers..
Iowa's defense brings back 10 starters from a top 15 (?) defense and doesn't have a first year starter at qb.
To me Wisky and Iowa are on the same level. If you call one a definite loss, the other has to be as well.
They lost A.J Edds, Pat Angerer, and Amari Spievey. Still not a ton but they're not returning 10 starters. Also, losing 2 linebackers and your best corner isn't any small potatoes; it's not like Iowa is a recruiting powerhouse.
Offensively, they lost a lot of their O-line including Bulaga. They also lost Moeaki. Stanzi needs to improve a lot, too.
In 2009, they scraped by Michigan, needed a Miracle against Northern Iowa, benefitted from Sparty being Sparty, were dead to rights against Indiana until the Hoosiers went all Yakety Sax on them, and were in a tight game with Arkansas St (Who? Exactly). They're definately beatable and no where near as good as Wisconsin.
Phil Steele states that when a team wins a net of several close games (such as Iowa), they usually regress back to the mean next year. I still fail to see why people don't give them any credit though, 11-2 and a BCS bowl win is impressive no matter how it's done.
I agree, they are beatable like they were last year, they aren't even close to Wisconsin, and IMO Wisconsin and OSU are our only definite losses.
Exact same reason I didn't think MSU was that good in 2008. Iowa could not put anyone away last year. I'm not taking anything away from what they did last year. They won those games; congratulations.
However, I'm not carrying over any of that into this year seeing as how they lost their top tackler (by a mile), another high quality LB, and their best CB. The defense will regress but will still be good. Their offense was pretty bad and the O-Line got blown up.
If they win 9 games next year I'll be surprised; I'm thinking more like 8.
Iowa is liked by pretty much everyone in 2011 because they won a big bowl game and they have a veteran quarterback. I was surprised to see them win so many games last year considering their qb, although experienced, oftens throws hilarious picks right to the defense. They got crazy lucky in like 5 wins last year. I think they come down to earth a little next year. They are beatable. We almost beat them last year.
Iowa won last year because they had a great defense and a solid offensive line, yet they lost their All Big-10 DB and two top-flight LBs, plus two offensive linemen and the TE who burned UM last year. And for all the talk about Ricky Stanzi being a veteran QB, he's also a veteran QB who threw 15 INTs vs. 17 TDs (by comparison, Tate had a 13:10 TD:INT ratio). I agree that Iowa is probably the better team right now, but not by much and we really don't know how either team will shake out by the time they meet. Wiscy and OSU are most likely losses, but Iowa is a great deal closer to MSU and PSU than either of those teams.
Iowa's offense doesn't scare me. It wasn't great last year and they have to replace most of their line. I don't like our offense against their defense, so I think they should be favored but it's hardly a definite loss.
I don't see any definite losses. With the potential of our high power offense, I think UM should be in every single game as long as the D improves over last year. UM isn't bringing in 1 and 2 star kids, but 3 and 4 star kids. While young, there is still experience on the roster, and after the last two years, the players are very hungry to be winners again. This is still Michigan, and no game should ever be looked at as a definite loss, regardless of the previous two years. Every game on our schedule is winable. Otherwise what is the point of playing the games. They were right in the Iowa game on the road, and showed signs of ability in others. They played terrible for 58 minutes against MSU and still almost won. While they might not win them all, none should be looked at as guarenteed losses.
You know there is always the chance that we will perform beyond expectations. Just saying avoiding the worst case scenario is not the best possible outcome.
The Angry Michigan Hating Gods have put a hold on chances. Only way out of this box is to kick ass so well that even the Gods can't hose it up.
PSU though is much more questionable than a definite loss. The last time Joe Pa had a questionable QB and a solid defense, it didn't go in thier favor.
Something special will happen this year. I can feel it in my plums.
You might want to get that checked out. It's easy to confuse premonitions with the big C.
When it comes to Iowa, you never know what you are going to get with them.
I dont want to use the word "luck"....But, I find it hard to believe that Iowa will get the same bounces they got a year ago. Not that they were a bad team but a lot balls bounced there way last year. That team was about 5 plays from being 6-6...
So, based on that I do not see Iowa as a definite loss.
Did you just start out your post with a Forrest Gump quote? I guess Iowa IS like a box of chocolates.....
not use analogies?
They were also two or three plays from running the table too, so yeah, they had a bit of bad luck in their losses. They did lose both games when their starting QB wasn't playing.
will be tough. Will our D be good enough to hold us into the game? We won't score too many points I believe because their D should be pretty good again. They also have Adrian Claiborn, whos projected to be a top 10 pick. As we've seen with BG, a supremely talented guy can make a big difference in games.
The only reason I don't like them to win the B10 is because they lose 3 starters on the OL. They return Stanzi, 3 legit B10 RBs, and DJK.
Their D should be good but spread schemes are good at neutralizing their particular strength, the D line. Being in the shotgun formation makes it tough on the big guys up from to make it home. Being inexperienced at linebacker should make them vulnerable to screens. Claiborne is a beast, no doubt, but I think our O line will be OK. We shredded those guys last year, I expect no different this year since we'll be much better on the O line and at QB and they'll be worse (even if only marginally).
Iowa had a +4 turnover margin on us and only beat us by two at home. Let's do this.
CFN Drools On Keyboard...Again
I don't see any "definite losses." I still believe that Michigan will be in Florida on NYD, but this is shaping up to be one of those years where they can beat anyone or lose to anyone.
UConn will be like WMU last year...a scary game, a lot at stake.
We will win this game, not easily, but with some cushion and it won't be close.
They are overrated and we are underrated.
The chip on our shoulder will be apparent....and UConn will be the unfortunate victim. I like their program and their coach.
Michigan is gonna be good. Don't let everyone bring us down. Let the haters hate.
I have to agree with Raback here, UM is going to come out swinging again this year, but to to a greater extent than last year. They have a lot to prove for themselves and for their coach, and they now have the tools to do it. Uconn will not be close, we will beat MSU in a tough game, and we will cruise by Iowa.
Cruise by Iowa? I think that is the one game that we could pull off the upset. But their D is going to be shutdown. I know their offense won't be great, but they don't need to be to win games.
how do you figure? we had a chance to beat them last year, on the road, with two freshman QBs, after having given up 5 turnovers. this year it'll be at michigan, with 2 more seasoned QBs, i kind of doubt that we'll have 5 turnovers again against a defense that really didn't stop us all that much.
But we don't have Minor to run down their throats. Don't they return almost everyone?
Denard's best series of the year was against Iowa. Lead the team down the field, making a few nices passes and ran the ball effectively for first down after first down. Hell, if UM had a couple more minutes on the clock, Denard doesn't have to force the ball downfield and that game could have ended differently.
Tate was injured that game. If he was in, things may have ended differently. Not taking anything away from Denard, but he wasn't much of a qb last season, and Tate already had 2 games where he worked some magic on last minute drives.
Brandon Minor is a poor man's Leroy Hoard. Someone needs to put a list of the "greatest" Michigan runners since the Bo era not to have 1000 yard season. Without doing any research Hoard has to rank first and Minor second. People will look back in 20 years and wonder what the attraction was with Minor, cause on a statistical basis, there is not much to see, plus the teams he played on his last 2 seasons were horrid. Really who the hell will even look back and study these past 2 years, out of sight out of mind for me.
Hoard and Bunch, loved those guys when they ran, they always hoarded up yards by they bunch. Dumb yes, but I always snickered when they made a good run.
1997. And I'm expecting that a signature play for the season will emerge, as it did in that game (run action left, boot right, hit the TE for 22 - 46 yards). I love the plays that we get to see succeed again and again, to the extent that as it unfolds we have already extended our arms to the heavens. Extra point pending.
That gets a +1 just for the picture. Tremendous.
It seems like this writer just wanted to bash U of M as much as possible in this article. What an idiot.
but I don't think the assumption that the record will be from 5-7 to 7-5 is provably off-base. There are too many unknowns for me to be strongly confident of much better.
• What will the defense be like without BG? Will Ezeh and Mouton be better? Will the young DLs be able to make up for the departure of Graham? Can Will Campbell become a true difference-maker as a sophomore? Can the secondary improve even minus DW? Will pure freshman like Jibreel Black and Dorsey (if he qualifies) see playing time right away, and will they be effective? What part of his resume is the real Greg Robinson?
• Will Denard be as effective during a real game as he was during spring drills? Will Tate improve? Are the suggestions by some that Tate isn't working hard enough in mental preparation accurate? Will TF get petulant and check out mentally if DR receives the starting nod? Will DR if the opposite occurs?
• Who the hell will be the starting RB?
• Will Molk be able to return to full strength? Will Lewan and/or Washington be good enough to claim a starting spot? Will Schilling play at an All-Conference level—or better?
• Will Hagerup be able to step right in as a pure freshman punter and not crap the bed? Who's going to kick field goals?
Lose to ND? Who is transitioning to the spread offense? Who has a QB that has hardly had any if none playing time. BULLSHIT. Michigan will massacre ND.
I dont like giving score predictions. Last year I did it and it became a debacle of a season.
At ND- W
At IU W
MSU- Toss Up (Leaning more toward us because its in A2)
At PSU L
At PU W
Some people (and you are one of them) give PSU way too much credit for this fall. Maybe it's because they've been strong the last couple years, but I don't know where this prediction is coming from. They will have a pretty average (if not bad) offense, and although their D usually comes together, they have to replace a lot of players.
I know it's in Happy Valley at night, but I like our chances against PSU. This should be, at worst, a toss-up.
What an ass.
Why is is so fucking difficult for college football writers to make sound, logical arguments? They write about a game that is full of statistics, and yet the best they can offer is this drivel. It's true of almost everyone in both the MSM and blogosphere, and it is absolutely ridiculous.
What did you expect? If it's on CFN, it will likely suck. Also, there are no definite losses ever; that's why cliches are made. The only likely losses I see this season are none and likely wins are all of them.
Especially at this point of the pre-season, there should be no projection worse than a toss-up. The run we had against the Cooper Buckeyes should adequately convince everybody that the team with the most players who are nationally known doesn't necessarily win. The team that had a better year the previous season doesn't necessarily win. Injuries/health and locker room morale are pretty powerful forces that will begin to assert themselves in mid-September and grow stronger through tthe course of the season. If we stay on the positive side of the injured/healthy continuum, I see no games on the schedule that I would feel comfortable conceding. Healthy and clicking, this team should have a puncher's chance against everybody.
I definitely don't see 5-7 or 6-6 this year. I don't know if this guy just doesn't like Michigan but we can definitely go 7-5 or 8-4 this fall.
I don't agree with the analysis, but it isn't unreasonable to say 5-5 with 2 toss ups. Hopefully UofM will prove it wrong.
At nd: toss-up
At indiana: W
at psu: toss-up
At purdue: toss-up
at o-state: L
So, I see us with 3 guaranteed Ws, 2 guaranteed Ls, and 7 toss-ups. In those I think we lose to Iowa and Penn State and take the other 5. That would make us 8-4 with wins over ND and MSU but losses the best 4 teams in the league. What will likely happen is we win one or two we shouldn't and lose one or two we shouldn't. So, my Memorial Day prediction is 8-4, 5th place in the B10 and a likely trip to the Gator Bowl on New Year's Day, 2011, to face an SEC squad.
If we count toss-ups as 50% win probability, then we win 4 of those and go 7-5. The question then becomes, assuming losses to Iowa and Penn State, who would you stomach losing to the most out of:
UCONN, at nd, MSU, ILLINOIS, and at purdue
I would have to say UCONN, to be honest. Even though it's apples and oranges, we can't lose to ND in Kelly's first season after Rod's first season went 3-9. We can't drop 3 straight to MSU, especially with this one being at home. I don't think losing 3 straight to the 2nd sorriest team in the league at home will be good, either. And I think I'd rather lose to UCONN than 3 straight to Purdue.
Man, after reading that last paragraph, it's painfully obvious that we owe a lot of folks some payback.
A lot of people seem to see something similar to last year -- good start, poor finish, with a few more bounces (both in games and re: injuries) going our way.
I don't know about the start (1-1 is most likely, I believe), but I do think that Michigan will improve more than the other teams in the Big Ten as the season progresses. That may not be enough to close the gap against some of the better teams, but I'd look for very competitive games against Wisconsin and OSU.
There will be ups and downs, but for the first time in the Rodriguez era, I find myself thinking this is going to be a team nobody wants to play -- a dangerous spoiler late in the season.