CFB Week 2, Big 10 Games

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June 25th, 2012 at 9:28 AM
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jamiemac
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 7902
CFB Week 2, Big 10 Games

Hi all. I'll have a diary later in the week, but its a boring Monday morning and I want to talk College Football right bleeping now.

 I have a new post on the current bettting lines for Big 10 teams in Week 2 of the season. The post is light on Michigan as their game that week isnt on the betting board. Yet.

Over at the JCB, I am making my way chronologically through the Golden Nugget's Games Of The Year betting lines released earlier in the month. We're still looking at CFB Week 2.

The post focuses on the Iowa St-Iowa and Nebraska-UCLA games, which the Golden Nugget casino has already releases actuall betting lines on. The rest of the Big 10 will have to wait, but we do have possible spread projections. Lets talk all the action. Thoughts on these games, teams or anything related. Lets kill this Monday afternoon and get one day closer to kickoff together. We can do it

Iowa State +5 at Iowa (actual lines)

Nebraska -7.5 at UCLA (actual lines)

Those games are actual lines to bet on in Vegas. Who you got. The remaining Big 10 slate that day with projected lines. The Wolverines are kinda heavy chalk, yo!

Air Force +24 at Michigan

Wisconsin -14 at Oregon St

Vandy +1.5 at Northwestern

Penn St +2.5 at Virginia

Illinois pick 'em at Arizona St

IU -14 at Umass

New Hampshire +23 at Minny

UCF +16.5 at Ohio St

Mich St -23.5 at Central MICH

Purdue +11.5 at Notre Dame

If those projected lines are close to reality, I like UVA over Penn St--are we sure the Nits will even be in a bowl game this year? I am not. Losing this game will hurt.....and I'll take ASU, the home Pac-12 team in a coin flip against Illinois.

I like that Vandy/NW game a lot. Not to bet, but to watch. Vandy is really on the move. Loser probably wont be able to make a bowl game, however.

Lets talk

Help My Friend Allison Fight ALS 

MSU/IU at the JCB

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June 25th, 2012 at 9:31 AM | 24 point favorites? (Score:1)
rmic2
Joined: 07/18/2011
MGoPoints: 221

Really? That seems extremely high - I was thinking we would be a 14 point favorite max.

Born in Ohio to a Catholic family, but I went Blue

June 25th, 2012 at 9:40 AM | For sure (Score:3 Normal)
jamiemac
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 7902

For sure. To be clear, its just a projection put forth by the Beyond The Bets Website

Nobdoy is listing that as a betting line as of yet.

I have to think what happens in the Bama game will dictate this line. If Michigan gets worked over and Bama not just wins but covers the spread, the line will be lower. But, if Michigan springs an upset, they will be at least 2 touchdown chalk over the Pilots.

Right now, we're seeing Books on Michigan's actual betting lines err on the side of Michigan as a year ago, they all got worked over on the early Wolverine betting lines. This summer, they're making a higher bar to clear for any UM action to cover.

 

 

Help My Friend Allison Fight ALS 

MSU/IU at the JCB

June 25th, 2012 at 9:43 AM | agree (Score:1)
Ziff72
Joined: 07/07/2008
MGoPoints: 5147

I'm not up on my AF scouting report just yet, but they have a top notch coach, unique offense and obviously a bunch of guys that won't quit.   I love watching Air Force play and would take the 24 without blinking before knowing that Michigan will be coming off a monster game in Jerry World.   Unless I find that out that AF is returning 5 guys or that their QB is being deployed the week before the game I'm going heavy on the Falcons.

As an added bonus I have the feeling Hoke has a soft spot for the military and if the lead ever spikes to 30 he'll have massive subs.

Take.  It.  To.  Bank.

June 25th, 2012 at 9:51 AM | One thing I have read is that (Score:2)
jg2112
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One thing I have read is that Air Force's leading rusher or QB or something was kicked off the team.

June 25th, 2012 at 10:55 AM | I keep posting this (Score:3 Normal)
Bodogblog
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but Air Force loses everybody this year.  We should win easily. http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/2012/5/21/3028278/2012-air-force-football-preview

 

In all, Air Force must replace its top two quarterbacks, top running back, three top receivers, top two tight ends, four of its top six offensive linemen, four of its top six defensive linemen, three of its top five linebackers, its top two cornerbacks and its best safety. And for good measure, the Falcons must replace their top kickoff returner and punt returner too.

June 25th, 2012 at 9:52 AM | Everyone knows the marquee (Score:3 Normal)
jg2112
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Everyone knows the marquee matchup of week 2 is Oklahoma State at Arizona. The key is whether Arizona will keep the Hokies under 70 points. Having just lost their starting MLB (the nation's leading returning tackler) due to "loss of love of the game," Casteel is in trouble.

June 25th, 2012 at 10:51 AM | lingering sugar bowl hangover? (Score:3 Normal)
oriental andrew
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MGoPoints: 4587

Oklahoma State are the (cow)Pokes, not the Hokies.  Yeehaw!

For my privacy, my new username is "non-Oriental non-Andrew"
 

June 25th, 2012 at 11:01 AM | But, but the 3-3-5 is (Score:3 Normal)
TSimpson77
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Joined: 05/13/2010
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But, but the 3-3-5 is designed to get the best athletes on the field. plus the defense only gave up 600 yards of offense to RRs great offense and forced 3 turnovers! bear down wilcats

/s

June 25th, 2012 at 10:01 AM | Unlike Dewey Oxberger, I'm (Score:2)
ReadYourGuard
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Joined: 08/21/2008
MGoPoints: 6222

Unlike Dewey Oxberger, I'm not a gambler by nature.  However....

Gimme Air Force +24.  As a coach, I never felt defending the option was all that complicated.   Give your men their assignment and make sure they know to follow that assingment no matter what.  Of course, I coach high school so it's infinitely less complicated than AF.  That said, coming off the Bama game creates a tough 6 day task.

I'll take Nebraska and give UCLA the points.  I realize the Bruins have a new coach and this game will be played in Pasadena, but the Huskers should be inspired to A) begin their second season as a B1G school, and B) it's the Rose Bowl.

Iowa v Iowa St.?  Why do I feel like ISU wins this game more than the Hawkeyes?  I could google it, but I'm wasting enough time posting in this thread while at work.

I'lll also take Central Michigan and the points.  Will Dantonio really run up the score on his boy Enos?  Besides, it's in Mt. Pleasant.  That's gotta count for something, right?  No?  Oh well.  I'm sticking with my pick.

"the Spirit of Michigan...is based on a deathless loyalty to Michigan and all her ways....and a conviction that nowhere is there a better university, in any way, than this Michigan of ours" - Fielding Yost
June 25th, 2012 at 10:06 AM | New Hampshire (Score:2 Normal)
MGoReader04
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Without knowing anything about New Hampshire, I don't think there is a team out there that I would pick the Gophers to beat by 23 points.

109,901 Seats, 351 Big Ten Championships, 116 Olympic Medalists, 44 National Championships, 26 Rhodes Scholars, 18 Puliltzer Prizes, 8 Astronauts, 3 Heisman Trophies, 1 US President, 1 Tradition of Excellence

June 25th, 2012 at 3:26 PM | The one thing you should know (Score:3 Normal)
jg2112
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The one thing you should know about New Hampshire's football program is that it spawned Chip Kelly.

June 25th, 2012 at 10:09 AM | CMU (Score:1)
Ziff72
Joined: 07/07/2008
MGoPoints: 5147

CMU at home could be interesting.   I'm sure the place will be nuts and CMU may be able to hang for a while.   MSU will be coming off a big game as well and if Maxwell struggles his confidence might not let him shred CMU in his 1st road game.

June 25th, 2012 at 3:10 PM | I would gladly trade a loss (Score:1)
thisisme08
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I would gladly trade a loss in this game if Dantonio agrees to take his F*cking idiot of a protege Dan Enos back to EL with him. 

 

Mt. Pleasant home of the most cocky, self rightous, and out of touch Athletic Department in the world. 

Blue is Faster

June 25th, 2012 at 10:10 AM | but.... (Score:2)
mikejc1997
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MGoPoints: 164

what if we block the guy assigned to the quarterback?  what if we option the end instead of the tackle?  just bustin your balls man...people always tell us (Lowell HS) that defending the option is easy.

June 25th, 2012 at 10:19 AM | That's where scouting, film, (Score:2)
ReadYourGuard
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That's where scouting, film, and repping in practice comes in.  Clearly the option can be a deadly weapon.  But there are reasons the option is seldom used in college anymore (aside from not getting your QB killed).

"the Spirit of Michigan...is based on a deathless loyalty to Michigan and all her ways....and a conviction that nowhere is there a better university, in any way, than this Michigan of ours" - Fielding Yost
June 25th, 2012 at 10:49 AM | traditional triple option is seldom used (Score:2)
mikejc1997
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Many variations are used pretty extensively in college.  Urb...I hate to say this...is one of the best at utilizing the option game.

June 25th, 2012 at 10:55 AM | Good.  I hope Miller is as (Score:3 Normal)
ReadYourGuard
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Good.  I hope Miller is as accurate with his pitches as his is with his passes.  Particularly with his left hand.

"the Spirit of Michigan...is based on a deathless loyalty to Michigan and all her ways....and a conviction that nowhere is there a better university, in any way, than this Michigan of ours" - Fielding Yost
June 25th, 2012 at 10:59 AM | Pitchback... (Score:2)
mikejc1997
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MGoPoints: 164

another interesting topic.  We never use one...it is all two way veer, inverted veer or read option.  This is due to never having a kid who can run below a 4.8.

June 25th, 2012 at 11:08 AM | I run the same inside veer (Score:2)
ReadYourGuard
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I run the same inside veer and midline.  We kill teams with it.

"the Spirit of Michigan...is based on a deathless loyalty to Michigan and all her ways....and a conviction that nowhere is there a better university, in any way, than this Michigan of ours" - Fielding Yost
June 25th, 2012 at 10:16 AM | UMass please (Score:2)
jaggs
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Anybody getting 14 vs Indiana has to be a good play, right?

June 25th, 2012 at 10:39 AM | WTF? (Score:3 Normal)
jabberwock
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This thread has no WIAB/RDT commentary?!

Didn't you get the memo?

Love & Hate are horns on the same goat.

June 25th, 2012 at 10:44 AM | I have been waiting for MSU (Score:1)
Chippewa Blue
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I have been waiting for MSU to visit Mount Pleasant for the last two years. This place is going to be insane up here. Hopefully majority off us students actually make it to the game and not just the tailgate like is the new norm up here. But I can say that the Athletic Department, the team, and a good number of students have had this date circled for a long time. I'd say expect us to keep it closer then most would think.

Oh you know, just a typical Michigan fan that goes to Central

June 25th, 2012 at 3:16 PM | Judging from your context you (Score:1)
thisisme08
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Judging from your context you must still be in school, showing up for tailgating isnt the new norm, its the standard we just over achieved for a couple years until the AD killed the student atmosphere and the momentum the program had with Kelly/Jones as they felt they were hot shit. 

 

Signed,

Local and Class of '08 Alum. 

Blue is Faster

June 25th, 2012 at 10:46 AM | Nebraska (Score:1)
ijohnb
Joined: 09/21/2009
MGoPoints: 2854

is going to clobber UCLA.

Also, there is a good chance that 24 points would be a good over/under line for the Michigan/Air Force game, but as the spread?  That is going to be one boring ass ball control-posses the ball- the ball, the ball, the ball type game.  You will wake up from your nap and note the final score of something like Michigan a 23-13 winner.  A 24 point spread is absurd.

June 25th, 2012 at 10:53 AM | I think Michigan will cover (Score:1)
◔_◔
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I think Michigan will cover the spread, Air Force will try to beat Michigan on the edge which should be the strength of our D. Michigan's O will run all over them!

“I dream of a better tomorrow, where chickens can cross the road and not be questioned about their motives.”

June 25th, 2012 at 11:58 AM | bless you for talking 'ball jamiemac. (Score:2)
Bodogblog
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Preface this by once again stating I know little to nothing about anything, and most certainly college football.

However, I did get to watch a good stretch of last year's games on BTN this weekend (I love the replays, and would watch little else if the wife permitted it).  Specifically on MSU, based on what Brian has been saying and another mgoblogger who posted on Gholston's performance during the spring game.

After watching, I have to say I agree with Brian.  Gholston does little besides stand up, hold his ground, and wait for the ball to come his way (or chase backside).  Maybe this is all a DE is supposed to do in their scheme.  But watching DE's from PSU, Illinois, and (gasp) Purdue, this doesn't seem to be the case universally.  TITS (that is to say),the DE's from those teams seemed much more active and athletic, tossing away tackles and bullrushing the ballcarrier or QB. 

Even moreso, I disagree with Brian on Marcus Rush: he doesn't look that good to me.  In fact, of the DE's I watched this weekend, he most resembled some guy from Northwestern (maybe that NW guy is really all B1G, again I don't know what I'm talking about).  Opposing teams often blocked Gholston/Rush 1-on-1, and often with a TE.

Denicos Allen is tough as hell and very quick, he'll run around you and make TFL plays.  But he's undersized and fairly easy to block straight up.  Bullock is good.  Norman disappears for very long stretches.  Their DBs, however, I think are very good.

The loss of Coupons, Cunningham, Martin, Nichol, their TE, and best blocker can't be overstated.  They made so many plays that kept them in or won them games.  I'm signficantly downgrading my fear level.  If Boise has anyone left who's decent, that coach will make it a scary game.

And Wisconsin's DL is atrocious.  I predict a big fall for the Badgers.

June 25th, 2012 at 12:54 PM | I second the opinion of (Score:1)
bronxblue
Joined: 11/22/2008
MGoPoints: 12617

I second the opinion of Gholston - he seems like a mediocre DE who benefitted from having Worthy cause havoc and being single-blocked.  MSU's LBs are probably the best in the conference, though, so that team should still be stout in the front 7.  I personally am down on their secondary outside of Adams, and wonder how they'll hold up if the line isn't getting much pressure (sounds like UM as well). And their offense is, well, going to be interesting. 

Wisconsin should still be able to grind through weaker teams offensively, but Russell covered up quite a few holes last year, and their recruiting defensively has not been that impressive considering how they've finished the past couple of years.

June 25th, 2012 at 3:40 PM | But (Score:1)
ijohnb
Joined: 09/21/2009
MGoPoints: 2854

Gholston does paint his face like Lattimer, so that needs to be taken into the equation.

June 25th, 2012 at 12:47 PM | I'm liking that Vandy game as (Score:1)
bronxblue
Joined: 11/22/2008
MGoPoints: 12617

I'm liking that Vandy game as well.  NW should be rolling out Coulter at QB, and his athleticism scares me.  Should be a fun game between two really good schools.

That MSU game looms as a major letdown, and CMU is no slouch at home, and if that defense improves even a bit they could be a dangerous out in the MAC.  They had a couple of close losses last year, and should be improved on offense with Radcliff coming back.

June 25th, 2012 at 5:36 PM | CMU (Score:1)
Hengesbach
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MGoPoints: 82

As much as it hurts having to say this (because I'm a current CMU student) there's not a snowball's chance in hell we keep this game within 21 points..Radcliffe has experience yes, but lacks actual talent, all my friends here in Mt P are just praying for a respectable game (and to have a good tailgate of course!)

#HTTV

June 25th, 2012 at 8:38 PM | I have only followed CMU (Score:2)
bronxblue
Joined: 11/22/2008
MGoPoints: 12617

I have only followed CMU tangentally, but I thought that there was some buzz about the offense getting back to those LeFevour-type offensive machines from a couple of years ago.

Regardless, MSU will be coming off a big game and might be down; crazier things have happened.

June 25th, 2012 at 3:44 PM | It's also difficult to (Score:1)
ThadMattasagoblin
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MGoPoints: 2773

It's also difficult to replace all of your starters when you don't offer scholarships.

903 wins most in college football

June 25th, 2012 at 8:50 PM | I'll let you guys in on a (Score:2 Normal)
michfan6060
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Joined: 01/22/2011
MGoPoints: 1247

I'll let you guys in on a little secret of mine always take ISU and the points against Iowa.

Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence.

- Vince Lombardi

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