CC - YOUR choice
The board's choice for our new head coach is pretty clear: Jim Harbaugh. But who comes in second?
It turns out that's also pretty clear:
Les Miles won the board poll by a hefty margin, garnering an even 49% of the vote. The runner-up, Dan Mullen, mustered barely better than half that number (24.79%) and from there it's a steep drop to any kind of third place. Here are the results, followed by a few thoughts:
- Les Miles - 342 votes (49%)
- Dan Mullen - 173 votes (24.79%)
- Tom Herman - 64 votes (9.17%)
- Other - 64 votes (9.17%)
- Todd Graham - 23 votes (3.30%)
- Jim McElwain - 19 votes (2.72%)
- Greg Schiano - 8 votes (1.15%)
- Craig Bohl - 5 votes (0.72%)
I would attribute the lower number of votes to yesterday's news--before the confirmation of Hoke's meeting with Hackett, the votes were coming in much, much faster, but the board got understandably focused on other things by the afternoon. That said, the trends were clear: Miles stayed around 50% the entire time, and Mullen was always the clear runner-up in the 25% range. Tom Herman was a bit surprising as the #3 choice, even if he was dead even with "other."
The Problem
Jim Hackett's press conference was flawlessly executed. That said, he built an idealistic picture of a coach that's going to be awfully hard to find. It seemed he weighs on-field success and character about equally, and even Jim Harbaugh has plenty of detractors in the latter category. Don't get me wrong--if Harbaugh wants the job, he's got it. But Hackett's focus on integrity is going to give the media lots of excuses to try to dig up dirt and question his commitment to character.
For that reason, I strongly believe that Les Miles will NOT be considered a serious candidate for the job. If all you know about Miles is that he has been extremely successful in CFB's best division, you only know some of the story. Les has been the subject of many rumors of scandal and impropriety over the years, and, while I'm sure not all are true, there is plenty of ammunition for the media to throw in Hackett's face should he hire Les, creating another press-fueled shitstorm the university does not want.
Our #2 guy isn't without warts either. Dan Mullen's recent scholarship withdrawal from QB Chason Virgil--whom Mullen had asked to enroll early and is just a few days from graduation now--didn't please the recruit's coach:
Chason Virgil -35 tds/6int passing -8td rushing. One of the best young people I've ever coached -only flaw was trusting "coach" Mullen.
— Coach Jeff Neill (@neill_jeff) November 21, 2014
Tom Herman seems clean so far, but he hasn't run a program yet. Todd Graham switches jobs more than Taylor Swift switches crushes. McElwain also looks clean, but is a front-runner for the Florida job. Schiano has his detractors--though more in the Harbaugh vein of abrasive intensity--and most people don't even know who Craig Bohl is.
What I'm getting at here is that I believe it's likely that there is a candidate who has a good shot at winning the job that we are not currently considering. A good point was made by a poster last night that Bob Stitt might be a better fit for Hackett's criteria than many names we've on which we've fixated. Here's a good place to learn a bit about Stitt. He makes no secret about his desire to coach at the top level.
I have no idea who it might be, but it may be time for us to think outside of the names we've gotten used to in the past few months. Then again, it may just be Jim Harbaugh.
December 3rd, 2014 at 12:09 PM ^
He solves so many problems. He worked with Mattison in Baltimore, so maybe he gets Greg to stay another year or two. He's a defensive guru, so maybe he lets Nussmeier stay and further implement his system. Ferrigno stays so Clark comes back at TE. He's a DB coach, so maybe he coaches them up and we can improve on our DB stats (5 INTs, 27 BrUps total compared to 18/50 for our opponents.) Roy Manning can return to front seven coaching and leave the DBs to Austin, and Manning can stay on as the recruiting guru.
We were -16 in TO margin this year. If we can get more INTs and Nuss is allowed to coach up Morris/Speight/Malzone for another year, we're not that far from being relevant.
If we can get a Harbaugh, great. But if they are intent on staying in the NFL, why not hire a guy who mentored for three years under John and who has done amazing things with the Lions defense? They are #2 in fewest yards allowed behind only the Seahawks. Defense wins championships.
December 3rd, 2014 at 12:26 PM ^
Their respective units were not good. Nussmeier's in particular was awful. Mattison's defenses failed against good teams. Plus, he is done. He isn't coming back regardless of who is hired.
There are a thousand Ferrigno's out there. Why is it so important to keep him?
Austin is going to be NFL head coach if he keeps this up. One good year with a Lions that has quite a bit of talent does not yet qualify him for a head job at either level. He needs another year or two of fielding such defenses before he will be seriously considered.
December 3rd, 2014 at 1:01 PM ^
Everyone was overjoyed that we got Nussmeier from 'bama, but after one mediocre season you are ready to get rid of him?
It's not that important to keep Ferrigno to me, but it is to the #2 TE. He also coached up Butt and was able to recruit Bunting. We'll see how the offense fares with both of them on the field next year.
Austin was also DC at Florida under Meyer. From his bio, "Prior to joining the Ravens, Austin earned his first stint as defensive coordinator with the University of Florida in 2010. His Gators defense tallied 22 interceptions that season, ranking fourth in the NCAA and returning four of those picks for touchdowns. In SEC games, Florida led the conference in total defense by allowing only 310.8 yards per game."
December 3rd, 2014 at 1:23 PM ^
Nuss was going to be let go by bama so they could hire Kiffin. He came to UM because he needed a job. He was awful this year.
December 3rd, 2014 at 2:07 PM ^
So in your view the problem is "how do we keep virtually all of the current coaching staff"? I thought the current staff was our problem.
December 3rd, 2014 at 7:39 PM ^
I mentioned ~4 guys. Mattison and Manning are excellent recruiters. Let them keep doing that and have Austin co-ordinate the D and coach the DBs. Ferigno couldn't get Funchess to block. Neither could Hecklinski. Is Heck the guy who coached up Gallon into an all-world player, or the coach who couldn't get Funchess to care? At some point, it's on the players to perform.
Nussmeier was hailed as an excellent hire. I wasn't on that bandwagon, but I also realize Rome wasn't built in a day. He didn't forget everything that allowed him to be successful at Washington and Bama. He had a QB who couldn't throw a deep ball. Period. End of sentence.
The o-line was performing better as the year went on, so I'm not in the fire Funk group, but it may be time for Jackson to retire.
As bad as things were this year, we were -16 in TO margin. How much of that 5-7 record is attributable to rotten luck? Nuss didn't coach Gardner to throw balls off of Funchess and Dever's fingertips into the hands of waiting DBs. That's just bad luck. As head coach, Brady has to take the responsibility for the 5-7 record, and the time mis-management, but we're a lot closer to being relevant than some are willing to acknowledge (how's that for a wishy-washy answer.)
December 3rd, 2014 at 12:09 PM ^
He's not a cheater and he holds academics in high regard. Hasn't been any controversy over recruiting practices or major off-the field issues with his college players.
He's insanely competitive and pisses people off that get in his way. Not sure that's a terrible thing if you want to win.
December 3rd, 2014 at 12:12 PM ^
The "Miles is too old" crowd. Yes he is 61 and may only coach 5 or 6 years. If Jim Harbaugh comes there is no guarantee he won't leave for the NFL again in 4 or 5 years. If you want to throw out Miles for lack of longevity then you would have to throw out Jim Harbaugh too.
December 3rd, 2014 at 12:13 PM ^
FWIW, I've heard Sam Webb talk about Jim Mora a couple of times now.
December 3rd, 2014 at 3:26 PM ^
job at Texas.
December 3rd, 2014 at 12:14 PM ^
We have had a long losing stretch and I don't think the program is healthy enough to take a chance on a small school coach who may turn out worse than Hoke. A small school coach will also cause our recruiting in 2015 and beyond to crater. We really need a big name hire like Harbaugh or Miles, or may be Mullen. Otherwise, we may be a down football program for years to come. All I know is Hackett better get it right this time. But I fear Michigan is going on the cheap this time and will not fork over the money that a top name will require. I think we will end up with a small school coach that will cost the University under 4 M! But if he fails it will be a disaster not only for the football program but for all other sports in the AD!
December 3rd, 2014 at 12:18 PM ^
The program is in dire need of a Bo-style hire because it is in the doldrums right now.. OSU and MSU have both surpassed UM by a good length, the attendance is lagging, and UM is becoming irrelevant on the national scene(if it isn't already). Nothing about this situation in indicates that UM will be cheap.
Your fear is completely ill-founded.
December 3rd, 2014 at 12:33 PM ^
Hackett said character will matter as much as coaching ability. So, depending on character flaws, they may not offer Miles or Mullen. It would take a large amount of money to lure Harbaugh from the NFL or to steal an established coach like Bob Stoops. I doubt Michigan will ever go over 6 M for a HC. Harbaugh would have to be one of the top paid college coaches to give up on his NFL dreams. There will be plenty of new NFL jobs opening at the end of the season.
December 3rd, 2014 at 12:16 PM ^
Outbid Fla for him. Or its Miles.
December 3rd, 2014 at 12:17 PM ^
December 3rd, 2014 at 12:38 PM ^
with Gruden, then it would be quite successful IMO!
December 3rd, 2014 at 2:07 PM ^
December 3rd, 2014 at 3:05 PM ^
I never got the obsession people have with Gruden..I dont understand why so many people get so excited over a guy with a career .500 record that hasnt coached a game for 5 years. Its not just people here either its evenwhere.....
December 3rd, 2014 at 12:18 PM ^
December 3rd, 2014 at 12:18 PM ^
Half of the people here want Miles if there is no Harbaugh? God help us...
December 3rd, 2014 at 12:22 PM ^
December 3rd, 2014 at 12:27 PM ^
I can only imagine what he'd do with the cheerleaders...
December 3rd, 2014 at 12:22 PM ^
How could these guys not be on this list? I'd take both in a heartbeat. Reicht was going to PSU but has a daughter with special medical needs, who better that Mott!
December 3rd, 2014 at 12:28 PM ^
You're grasping at straws with Stitt. I can't imagine Hackett even considering him. Wonky fans are fascinated by what he does. Some might think it's worth a huge gamble to see if his theories would work here. No Michigan AD is going to be that focused on Xs and Os in making this kind of hire. Relevant experience is going to trump creativity.
December 3rd, 2014 at 1:17 PM ^
To be clear, I don't think Stitt has a chance of being hired. I do think he is the type of coach Hackett is looking for. I brought him up more as a perspective shift than a likely possibility.
I would not bet on Stitt getting hired.
December 3rd, 2014 at 12:30 PM ^
I voted Mullen, but if it is someone other than Harbaugh, Mullen or Miles I'm going to be disappointed unless it is some super surprise like Chip Kelly or something equally crazy.
December 3rd, 2014 at 12:40 PM ^
1. Harbaugh - Because.... obviously
2. Les Miles - Proven winner in the toughest division in college football. Somewhat concerned about his effectiveness as a recruiter outside of the south.
4. Gary Patterson - Rumors that he turned the job down already, but the man can coach with the best of em. Made TCU a perennial contender.
4. Tom Herman - Offensive genius (literally). Plus, it would be nice to steal such a valuable asset from our rivals.
5. Pat Narduzzi - Defensive guru. Develops talent. Michigan recruiting ties. Not sure how realistic this one is?
5237. Schiano - Do not want. I understand he somewhat turned around a bad Rutgers program, but we need a winner.
December 3rd, 2014 at 12:45 PM ^
2. Bret Bielema-I love the way his team plays. Run the ball down people's throats.
3. Dan Mullen-He's topped out in Starkville. He'll at least listen.
4. Butch Jones-He's from Michigan, but I'm not sure he would leave Tennessee
5. Les Miles-If you hire him, you hire a Head Coach-in-Waiting. Maybe keep Nussmeier as OC and groom him as successor. He's learned a lot from Saban and is going to be a great HC one day
December 3rd, 2014 at 12:55 PM ^
I want a guy who can develop a QB into a field general, but stresses iron-clad defense foremost. Who knows that special teams requires strategy, innovation, and stresses execution. Who has a Ph.D. in all facets of the game, and on every play can weigh statistical advantage versus the gut-check of experience. Who has two settings, competitive and asleep. Who leads like General Washington at the front of the charge, inspiring confidence in his men to follow. I don't care if he's a big name. This guy is out there. Jim Hackett just has to find him.
December 3rd, 2014 at 1:23 PM ^
and most everyone else wants Jim Harbaugh! He meets all your criteria!
December 3rd, 2014 at 12:47 PM ^
December 3rd, 2014 at 12:52 PM ^
Kyle Whittingham of Utah He would meet the character requirement and the on the field performance that's required. He has had success at Utah beating some of the major powers. HIs career record is 84-43 and he is 7-1 in bowls. However, he is a Mormon and supposedly he and his family love living in Utah. But who knows...
December 3rd, 2014 at 1:11 PM ^
Tier 1: Harbaugh, Saban
Tier 2: Stoops, Miles, Mullen
Tier 3: Pelini, Moglia, Fleck, Fuente, and Sean McDonnell
December 3rd, 2014 at 1:18 PM ^
That Harbaugh was offered a 10 year contract to coach Michigan for an estimated $80 M. If true, I have faith now that money may not be a concern. I hope Harbaugh accepts this offer instead of going with another NFL team. If true this would be great news!
December 3rd, 2014 at 1:28 PM ^
Harbaugh? Hard to see M paying anyone $8 million per year right off the bat, or offering that long of a contract.
Beat Saban's ass in a couple NC games first, then we can talk about $8 million per year.
December 3rd, 2014 at 3:33 PM ^
Unfortunately, I don;t think it works that way. Hell, it doesn't work that way with the unproven ones (I am looking at you Charlie Weis).
December 3rd, 2014 at 1:40 PM ^
I still think Harbaugh is a pipe dream..I see no reason he comes back to college. If he leaves SF a multitude of pro teams will be doing whatever they can to get him..its not everyday a guy with 3 conference championship appearances and a super bowl appearance in his first 3 years as a coach comes available....
Why is no one talking about Pat Fitzgerald? He is young, he is a college guy, hes big 10 guy so he knows the conference, he has done a fair bit with what little he has ben given at NW. only thing is he’s a NW guy and I believe has self proclaimed it his dream job..may be tough to pull him away from that.....but if anyone can do it I think Michigan can.
December 3rd, 2014 at 2:27 PM ^
- Malzahn
- Whittingham
Then again, I wanted Rich Rod back in '08 and thought there was no way that he would every come up here, especially after turning down Alabama the year before.