CC - Would Todd Graham be a long term solution ?

Submitted by Magga Saraivah on

On paper, Todd Graham appears like a hell of a coaching candidate.  An overall career record of 74-39 and success at multiple levels (Rice, Tulsa, Arizona St). In addition he is still only 49.

He has been mentioned on many tier 2 or 3 coaching lists on this site.  For some reason I get a bad vibe about him.  Maybe its the way he bolted on Rice only days after a contract extension or Pitt after only 1 year. 

He seems that he would take the Michigan job if offered (because it is an upgrade) but might look to jump to the NFL the first chance he gets. Maybe that is ok becuase it would mean he had success here. 

Anyone out there think he would stay at Michigan longer than 4-5 yrs if he is successful ? I personally do not.

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now_a_hoo

November 5th, 2014 at 10:20 PM ^

But Graham fails even the most impossibly narrow definition- he has a contract to coach Arizona State next year. That's exactly what Bo told us was a no-no.

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alum96

November 5th, 2014 at 10:35 PM ^

I did a diary on Todd Graham a month ago.  If interested in a long read with stats/data feel free to go here.

http://mgoblog.com/diaries/coaching-candidate-todd-graham-similar-hc-re…

From a purely football perspective he reminds me very much of Brian Kelly.  He is IMO more of a sure thing that Dan Mullen.  Some things I like

  • He has won everywhere he has been except 1 spot (Pitt) - his 1 year stay that many are down on him about.  He has taken takes 2 situations just like UM where a team is stuck in mud and elevated them quickly - Tulsa and ASU.  ASU was mired with mediocre teams under Dennis Erickson and has only gone up since Graham showed up (8-5, 10-4, 7-1 currently)
  • He has a defensive background but hires great OCs - hired Guz Malzahn, hired Chad Morris (Clemson's OC), and his current guy is the next in line (Mike Norvell) who should be a HC at a mid major soon.
  • He hasn't had the benefit of Oregon, USC, UCLA type recruiting classes but is competing with those programs.
  • He developed a 2 star QB whose only other offer was from Nevada - until he was injured he was lighting things up.  Once he got hurt he threw in a no name backup who immediately threw for 1100 yards in 3 games.
  • His total offense figures at Tulsa matched Sumlin's, who took over for Art Briles system.
  • His defense was 2nd in the Pac 12 first year (Stanford #1) and 4th in is 2nd year (Stanford, Oregon, USC).  Again without the recruiting those guys are getting.
  • His defense lost 9 starters this year.  He started 3 true freshmen on defense - not Jabrill Peppers types but Brandon Watson, Chase Winovich types.  They were blown up a bit in the first part of the year.   They have improved week by week after the UCLA blowout and his FEI defensive rank is top 40 (ahead of UM which has a lot more experience).  Prior 2 years he had defensive FEI of 32 and 22 respectively.
  • Offensive FEI is #8 in the country, following last year's #6.  That is with his QB out 3 games and when Kelly came back 2 weeks ago he has not been as good as when he got hurt.  So you get Sumlin's offense with a coach who actually cares about defense.
  • His 2 deep has only 7 seniors total.  It's a very young team that he is not complaining about youth and "just wait until next year".  They are still 7-1 despite losing their starting QB for multiple games.  In the 2nd toughest division in the NCAA (USC, UCLA, Arizona, Utah, Arizona State).
  • Based on how the team recruits and their on field results he "coaches kids up".
  • In his 2nd year at ASU his only losses were twice to Stanford, by 3 to ND on a neutral field, and in a bowl game.
  • Other than Oregon he has beaten every player in the Pac 12 in his 3 years.

He has zero NFL connections so to go to the NFL someone would have to see Chip Kelly type of success to have him leave Michigan.  Or he'd go to Alabama - in either case it would mean he had great success here. Most guys like O'Brian had NFL experience before they went to the NFL - Harbaugh played in the league and had connections.  Graham has none.

You may not like Todd Graham for job hopping and how he left jobs but to dismiss his coaching prowess is short sighted.  I think ASU will be a top contender for the playoffs next year (they and Oregon) out of the Pac 12.  ASU should have been in a rebuild this year but they are in contention for a playoff spot - if they beat ND this week they could be top 7 in the CFB playoff rank. 

Downside he  has a southern drawl and talks about God in the locker room and his Midwest affiliations are low.  And he is a mercenary I guess.  But as a pure football coach he is in the top tier (i.e. top 15-20 in the country) IMO.

 

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Go Blue in MN

November 6th, 2014 at 10:32 AM ^

Just because there are certain coaches that certain of us do not want hired, it does not follow that we believe keeping Hoke is the best option.  Look over my previous posts -- I provided my top 5 wish list and Graham, obviously, was not on it.  If you don't like somebody on my list does that mean you are just making an excuse to keep Hoke?

By almost all accounts, Hoke has succeeded in all categories we want out of a Michigan coach except for the crucial W-L category.  That is enough to justify his firing.  But that doesn't mean we should lurch to the other extreme and take any mercenary coach that will get us a few more wins.  We're better than that!

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Realus

November 5th, 2014 at 11:31 PM ^

However, here is the record at Tulsa the two years before he got there:
 
2006  8  5
2005  9  4
 
So, Tulsa was pretty good in Conference USA before Graham got there.
 
Here is ASU's record, two years before Graham:
 
2011  6  7
2010  6  6
 
So, not a good team, but not horrible.
 
This year has been pretty impressive ...
 
But, his first two years as ASU he brought in a LOT of JC transfers (I think it might be 20+) and that is something he is NOT going to be able to do at U of M.
 
When you bring in JCs, it's more of a recruiting thing (with less competition) than it is coaching kids up.
 
Also, he has jumped ship TWICE (after one year at Rice and one year at Pitt).
 
I think people are missing what its like for a NCAA football coach to change jobs.  It's not the same as a normal job.  When NCAA coaches  recruit, they are basically committing to the kids that they will stay on as coach for four or five years.  So, leaving is a problem.  And leaving after one year means you probably lied in the interview you gave to be coach AND you screwed over their football program, at least for a couple of years.  And you were totally lying when you were recruiting.
 
It's possible that Graham is a great coach and will lead a team to a championship, but I think he is JUST slimy enough to not be the right coach at Michigan.  
 

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saveferris

November 6th, 2014 at 8:04 AM ^

But, his first two years as ASU he brought in a LOT of JC transfers (I think it might be 20+) and that is something he is NOT going to be able to do at U of M.
This is also true for Dan Mullen. Something to keep in mind when we get on board with finding the next hot coaching prospect and expecting him to turn things around in a year.

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Michigan Arrogance

November 6th, 2014 at 7:12 AM ^

this is certainly impressive, and I'm always surprized when job hopping "morality" comes into play. I'm not sure how coaches are supposed to accept jobs- they can't really publicly accept a position and continue to coach the "old" team (as in a standard, "give your notice" situation most of us are used to). when a new opportunity comes along, you take it. Imagine you;re in an industry where it's not possible to give 2weeks/months notice for whatever reasons. An attractive job opens that

  • likely pays more and
  • has a more regular work schedule.
  • is a chance to build something from the ground up
  • and has more upward mobility

so, you quitely interview (b/c why wouldn't you), and the turn around with an offer 3-4 days later that blows your socks off. 30% more money, 30% fewer hours, and a better work environment with more chances to move up. You know what you should do in the situation? SHUT UP AND TAKE THEIR MONEY. You're stupid not to. My wife just went thru this EXACT same thing (except she has a long 3 month notice timeframe).

Also, do you know how many jobs FH Yost had before Ann Arbor? WV, Neb, Stanford, and one more all in the course of like 5-6 years IIRC.

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Perkis-Size Me

November 5th, 2014 at 11:13 PM ^

He'd be 4th, maybe 3rd on my list behind Harbaugh, Mullen, and maybe Miles. Definitely has done some good things at ASU, and it looks like he can develop talent, but he's not the home run hire we need. I also have my doubts over whether or not he'd ever be able to beat Meyer or Dantonio. But he'd be a good get if your other options don't work out,


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DeBored

November 6th, 2014 at 12:34 AM ^

Some of his coordinator hires are really agressive (and worked out) which I love.  On paper he looks excellent, but obviously the way he left Pitt was not ideal and his Bob Barker headset is ridiculous (although less ridiculous than Hoke's non-headset headset).  If we ended up with him I would be still mildly stoked as he actually has a TRACK RECORD and is a clear upgrade over Hoke.

My stoke-o-meter would read as follows for each of  the Big 5 candidates if they are hired:

1)  Harbaugh:  Asplode

2) Patterson:  Near asplosion (I am only a tick less high on him than Unicorn Harbaugh)

3) Mullen:  A very high reading but not really an asplode risk

4)  Graham:  Moderate reading, see above

5) Miles:  Moderate reading, largely because his press conference chops and ridiculous quotes

Any other hire would barely move the needle except for if nothing worked out and we ended up with Craig Bohl there would be a slight uptick.

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Cromulent

November 6th, 2014 at 8:34 AM ^

Yes Graham hired Malzahn and later Morris. Those moves in and of themselves weren't a big deal. The big deal was that he let them run their offenses without interference.

People forget what a big deal this was when Graham took over Tulsa. Malzahn had a very rought time of it at Arkansas because McNutt wouldn't leave the offense alone and he eventually sidelined Gus completely.

Graham trusted Gus and told him he was being hired for his offensive expertise and would be left alone to show it.

At Auburn after Newton "graduated" the cupboard was bare. I think 4 of 5 OL graduated as well. So the points dipped a bit and Chizik started meddling with it. Gus leaves and a year later everyone at Auburn realizes the wrong guy was head coach.

Graham can credibly lure a guy like Bob Stitt to Ann Arbor. When he tells a coach he'll be allowed to do his thing you can take that to the bank.

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CharlieTweeder

November 6th, 2014 at 9:21 AM ^

Does anyone have an overview of the type of offense (IE personal groups and style) and defensive system that ASU uses?  I know Tulsa/Rice were more Air Raid/Spread but has Graham shown fexibility to be multiple on offense based upon personal?

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ADogNamedBo

November 6th, 2014 at 9:27 AM ^

Some of you are amazing...and I don't mean in a good way.

Hoke doesn't wear a headset, he is an idiot. Graham wears a funny earpiece, he wouldn't be a good hire. Graham has a funny accent, he wouldn't be a good hire.

 

Win the game!

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funkifyfl

November 6th, 2014 at 11:19 AM ^

For those worried about Graham leaving for a better job - 1) there are few better jobs in NCAA than UM and 2) he would be successful at UM to be eligible for those jobs. Even if he's only here for 2-3 years, it means the ship is going in the right direction. So, that concern does not hold water for me.

Regarding him leaving in poor fashion, both RR and Hoke left their previous schools on poor terms (RR on worse terms as IIRC Hoke made it clear to SDSU that he would leave if UM called, to which SDSU probably had a good belly laugh at, and then...). You don't have to squint to see this happen all the time. I'm inclined to say that it really is just the nature of the sport and the position - i.e. what Michigan Arrogance said upthread. Graham would be somewhat bonkers not to take the UM job if the salary is a significant bump.

UM needs a football coach, not a spiritual guide. I think some here are getting too worked up over the personality aspects of potential coaches and losing sight of the coaching side of things. I don't want UM to hire a morally reprehensive jerk, but I'm willing to give more leeway to get a good football coach who may not be the white knight some people around here seem to want.

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