CC - Where do you stand?
The AD change has happened, and most everyone expects a coaching change to follow. I don't know about you, but my views have evolved quite a bit since the whole CC bit started in earnest after Minnesota. Most of that change has been the result of research into the candidates, but some has also been feelingsball.
I'm curious to see what everyone else thinks. Here's my current opinion, broken into tiers:
Tier 1 - Harbaugh
Jim or John, I'd be equally ecstatic with either. Jim is the proven college HC, John is the nicer guy with the SB ring.
Tier 2 - Yes, please
These are the guys that I believe are the best candidates not named Harbaugh.
- Dan Mullen - Offensive guru who has built a defensive juggernaut. Appears to be the total package and has the added bonus of echoing the Woody/Bo relationship vis-a-vis Meyer. My top choice in tier two.
- Todd Graham - All he is does is win, wherever he's coaching. Not sure he'd move to the midwest.
- Gary Patterson - Defensive coach that decided to evolve offensively this year and is knocking on the playoff door. Would overhaul the roster as much as anyone.
- Jim McElwain - Former 'Bama OC has turned Colorado State (3-9 for three straight seasons before McElwain) into a double-digit win team that has progressed steadily on both sides of the ball and will probably win the Mountain West.
Tier 3 - Ummm...okay
Guys that make sense, I guess, but I would not be pumped about.
- Mark Stoops - Has rapidly advanced a once-pathetic Kentucky team. Will the improvement continue?
- Greg Schiano - Demeanor aside, his HC record is good, but certainly not great. Is he a good coach?
- Tom Herman - My favorite coordinator candidate. He seems capable of adapting to his personnel and changing the plan mid-game. Also, I like the idea of taking Urban's top assistant. But can he run an entire program?
- Mike Gundy - Seems like a good coach and a great quote, but hasn't been amazing since 2011 and the Les Miles ties cocern me. Would he run a clean program?
- Kyle Whittingham - Having a pretty impressive season at Utah, and wasn't too stubborn to change his offense. Is he ready for a big-time job?
Tier 4 - DO NOT WANT
- Les Miles - Call me arrogant, naive, or whatever you want--I still don't want a douchebag running our program.
- Dave Doeren, Butch Jones, Craig Bohl, Matt Wells, Mark Hudspeth - Not proven yet.
- Scott Frost, Kirby Smart, Bud Foster - Would they stay?
If I didn't put a name on the list, I'm not currently interested. What does the board think?
November 5th, 2014 at 2:06 PM ^
Oh, I know. I'd bet a lot of those naysayers would do an about-face when the W's started rolling in.
November 5th, 2014 at 2:07 PM ^
to get every good HS player from Louisiana to come to Michigan, then maybe.
Otherwise, no thanks.
November 5th, 2014 at 5:25 PM ^
As someone who follows LSU closely (gf is an alum), I could not agree more. This year is a perfect example of the difference between him and Hoke. Les has a very young (but highly recruited) team this year. They looked pretty weak in their first two SEC games (lose to MSU and blown out by Auburn). After the Auburn loss, the team went into Florida, and squeaked out a win somehow. Say what you want about Florida, but to get a young team to win a close one in the swamp is impressive. Contrast that with Hoke's teams who always seem to wilt on the road even against teams they should beat. The next week, they come back home and destroy an up and coming Kentucky team, then beat out an ole miss team that would be in playoff contention if not for 2 turnovers within the 5 yard line last week. A few weeks ago people in BR were just hoping to make a bowl, now they've got Alabama at home and expect to win.
Its been so refreshing to watch a team loaded with young talent coached properly. They get better each week and show flashes of that greatness which gives you hope for the coming years. But hey, the guy had some allegations of improper benefits at Okie State like 12 years ago, so I don't his sleazy ass near this program!
November 5th, 2014 at 1:52 PM ^
don't see John leaving Baltimore. Jim is a total wild card. He will be in need of a job but will another NFL team take a chance with him? If he comes back to college I don't see him going anywhere but AA.
November 5th, 2014 at 2:12 PM ^
I'd say it's highly likely John doesn't leave, but after hearing about the friction that may have been caused by the Ravens ownership turning down his request to release Ray Rice the first time he tried, you'd have to at least imagine there's actually a chance he may leave.
November 5th, 2014 at 1:54 PM ^
Anything that rhymes with Slim Are Baw.
November 5th, 2014 at 1:55 PM ^
Based on your explanations for each of the coaches, it makes no sense why Les Miles would be on a "Do Not Want" list. The guy is a proven winner in the toughest conference and recruits well.
Does he have highly paid assistants? Sure....but so does Hoke. Why aren't we relevant? To say he is a Tier 1 candidate may be a stretch...but to me he is a Tier 2 candidate without a doubt.
November 5th, 2014 at 1:55 PM ^
1: Either of the Harbaughs
2: Dan Mullen
3: Todd Herman with a badass D-Coordinator
---------
4: Chip Kelly
November 5th, 2014 at 2:06 PM ^
Chip Kelly isn't budging. He's on record saying that college recruitng, especially right after the bowl game is too stressful. He said he prefers to be in the office dealing with the x's and o's. Still nice to dream though.
November 5th, 2014 at 3:25 PM ^
I know it is never going to happen but Chip is an awesome coach and it would be fun if he ran the show at Michigan.
November 5th, 2014 at 1:57 PM ^
November 5th, 2014 at 2:04 PM ^
I won't be heartbroken if neither Harbaugh takes the job. I would be happy with either Harbaugh, but don't see them as the only option. I like Mullen and Patterson right now and think either could be pried away from their current job if there was an honest, ethical AD in place.
November 5th, 2014 at 2:04 PM ^
November 5th, 2014 at 2:05 PM ^
and Marcus Ray suggested there was a possibility that the hiring of a new AD would not necessarily lead to a coaching change and that it might work in favor of Hoke getting another year depending on how the team plays in its remaining games.
Part of this thinking was based on whether Michigan could explore the optiion of getting Jim Harbaugh and if not, then retaining Hoke and thus giving the new AD more time to review his administration before firing him.
I am not of this mind but I do believe the AD hiring process dictates how a coaching decision will be determined.
Part of their reasoning for this is sensible because by keeping Hoke on board the likelihood of mass transfers abd attrition is reduced compromising what seems like a promising roster heading into next year.
I was a lukewarm supporter when Hoke was hired, leary of his resume, but glad that Michigan was getting a guy who knew the program well and would redefine its image. That of course is what has beoome part of his problem seeking to redefine the team in an image that niether fit his roster nor has developed in the way he claimed it would. The defense has been transformed, but not much else on a consistent basis. And that lack of identity and mission pursuit has prompted the lackluster record and inability to compete against Michigan's rivals.
If Schilssel has given Hackett hiring and firing authority, then I would rather have him make the hard choices and get Harbaugh to Ann Arbor, his price notwithstanding. I recognize that Hackett would be reluctant to fire a guy like Hoke who is almost universallly liked save for his coaching record. But somebody's got to do this and Harbaugh, in my view, is the quickest answer to a Michigan turnaround.
Until he isn't available, I'd be more in favor of program stability which would mean keeping Hoke as suggested, even though I realize this is unacceptable to most. But this view is based on the team winning out which I don't expect to happen.
November 5th, 2014 at 2:17 PM ^
I actually can see Hoke keeping his job even if we don't win out. I'm not in favor of it and I too want him gone, however, I can see him staying on for one more year for exactly the reasons you stated. We will likely win 2 of our last 3, be bowl eligible and that -- in conjunction with not being able to land someone that is a lot better -- could keep Hoke around.
November 5th, 2014 at 2:21 PM ^
November 5th, 2014 at 2:30 PM ^
A Hoke return would torpedo not one but 2 recruiting classes. Not to mention continue to hurt ticket sales. Not to mention cause celebrations in Columbus and East Lansing.
November 5th, 2014 at 2:46 PM ^
...(while also beating at least one other team). And that's almost certainly not going to happen. However, if we end up 6-6 with a close loss to OSU, there is a tenuous outside chance that Hoke might make it to the bowl game. Emphasis on tenuous and outside.
If, on the other hand, OSU destroys us, as they may, Hoke is done and it won't matter whether we beat NW and Maryland or not. And if we go 5-7 and miss a bowl game, there is no way he stays. That would endanger season ticket sales and cause another fan uprising.
November 5th, 2014 at 8:33 PM ^
Hoke has already been told he won't be back. It's not even a secret around Ann Arbor several people know. Brady will resign after the OSU game and if we do happen to make a bowl game he will be allowed to coach in it. The minute Brandon resigned people should start understanding that was Michigan's way to show they're serious in getting Harbaugh.
November 5th, 2014 at 3:13 PM ^
LESS stable as everyone knows he is a failure. Everyone knows that UM is a bad team.Aa result ticket sales would continue to plummett, recruiting would wither, and UM's image would continue to shrink. Retaining Hoke would be devastating for the program.
Hoke was a Brandon hire. He has proven himself to be in over his head.Retaining Hoke is akin to Lincoln re-appointing McClellan to head the Army of Potomac because he had no one better. Not surprisingly, the results were no better the second time than it was the first. McClellan was still the dithering incompetent that Lee whipped so soundly. Sure, Hooker and Burnside failed, but eventually he did find Grant.
The moral of the story is you don't hold on to known failures out of fear of failing in the future.
November 5th, 2014 at 8:00 PM ^
And don't forget about Mead. He had one good game (Gettysburg) but failed to follow it up and press his advantage, thereby prolonging the war for two more years and getting replaced. I think Sumlin and Mullen are Mead here. I'd like to see how they do in successive campaigns before anointing him our general.
November 5th, 2014 at 9:04 PM ^
Grant was made commander of all Union Armies and came East. Meade remained the head of the Army of the Potomac, however Grant remained East and controlled things.
It would be like keeping Hoke but making Harbaugh the head of all football operations - except, Meade could actually coach, err, uh, lead an army.
Now, a Miles hire would seem to me like hiring Longstreet. Top notch general, maybe even under-rated, not always fondly thought of by those he campaigned with.
November 5th, 2014 at 3:56 PM ^
Sam and Marcus are fear mongering because they want Hoke to stay. Sam is close to Chris Singletary and bringing in Harbaugh might take away his inside source. At this point, I wouldn't trust anything being said on WTKA.
November 5th, 2014 at 4:51 PM ^
He will know before taking the job that his first priority will be turning around the football program.It's painfully obvious that it's headed in the wrong direction. He will certainly be aware of the timeframe for hiring a new coach. I don't buy the notion that he'll need time to assess the job Hoke is doing. We're going to be hiring someone who is already a Div-1 AD, not someone who has to be brought up to speed on how to run a football program.
November 5th, 2014 at 2:06 PM ^
1. Jim Harbaugh
2. John Harbaugh
3. Les Miles
November 5th, 2014 at 2:07 PM ^
I want Jim Harbaugh, but in my opinion, which is probably the vast minority, I don't think he comes. Putting aside the notion that anyone that has ever attended, visited, been employed by or taken a poop at UM will put all reasonable considerations aside and take any opening offered them, why would Harbaugh come? He sniffed a Lombardi trophy and his brother won one. He will have his pick of high paying NFL openings at the end of the season. I just think he is too competitive to walk away from the NFL when he has proven he can win big there.
Within the realm of people UM could actually get, I'd have to say #1 Mullen, #2 Miles and #3 Graham even though he'd be gone to the NFL after 2 good seasons.
November 5th, 2014 at 2:14 PM ^
In addition, it would be a tough sell to get Jim to move from the Bay area to Ann Arbor. I could see him going for the Bears job whenever it opens up, however, that job won't be available for at least a couple of years.
November 5th, 2014 at 5:13 PM ^
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November 5th, 2014 at 2:08 PM ^
Gary Patterson and then Dan Mullen in Tier 2. Tier 3 is Tom Herman and Les Miles, anything after that is a muchroom cloud and 25k empty seats.....No settling for for third or fourth best - that's how we got here.
November 5th, 2014 at 2:11 PM ^
do want. sign me up for whatever kool aid he is serving because this guy is the real deal. all of my friends from the south (ole miss and bama slappys) are praying dan mullen stays at miss st because they know that if mullen leaves hudspeth is most likely the leading candidate for the miss st job and they are scared about what he would be able to do at a school with more resources than he currently has.
1. jim/john harbaugh
2. hudspeth
3. dan mullen
do not want: schiano, miles, butch jones, dantuzzi
November 5th, 2014 at 2:11 PM ^
I really think we will end up landing Graham. Too much has to fall into place to get Jim or John. Graham would be a nice upgrade over what we have now and we could be what we were in early Carr years. His name strikes me as the most realistic. Good list.
November 5th, 2014 at 2:28 PM ^
November 5th, 2014 at 2:33 PM ^
Like the games themselves, I have no influence on the outcome of who ultimately becomes AD or coach at Michigan. All I know is that there will be a lot of upset fans if a Harbaugh doesn't come here and it could make things tough on whoever the new coach is.
I find it very interesting to read the CC threads of the past month. The coaches that didn't keep winning like they were early in the season aren't discussed as much anymore (David Shaw, Bronco Mendenhall, Kevin Sumlin, etc.) and it is hard to say if they were realistic options in the first place. For that reason, I have more confidence in an AD who is familiar with many coaches, how to evaluate them, and is accountable for the hire than the comments section of a sports blog.
November 5th, 2014 at 2:49 PM ^
You are correct - there is a lot of recency bias in what fans want. That is natural.
12 months ago, Dan Mullen was sitting at 4-6 with those wins over Alcorn State, Troy, Bowling Green (by 1 pt) and a 2-10 Kentucky. Fast forward a year and he is the best thing since sliced bread.
As for the guys you mentioned when a guy inherits a hot shot QB I like to see how he does without him - that is the situation with Sumlin. He also doesnt give a damn about defense so I was never as high on him as others. (Same situation with Mike Gundy, they dont play defense at OK State...but more than Sumlin does).
David Shaw is a solid coach but many will claim his success is all Harbaugh, I disagree but I think his conservatism would drive many here nuts - myself included.
Bronco is a Mormon in Utah coaching at his alma mater. Difficult to get and I think other guys have better resumes.
November 5th, 2014 at 3:22 PM ^
November 5th, 2014 at 2:35 PM ^
winningest coach in the toughest/best conferecne in football?? Yes Les Miles needs to be in the discussion and the best part is he won't say no. for 4-5 years he would be fine.
November 5th, 2014 at 3:15 PM ^
Putting aside Miles' heavy baggage, what makes you think he wouldn't say no?
At LSU, he can recruit a top 5 class without crossing the Mason-Dixon line. He has his team in the national championship conversation once every five years or so. And he's paid $4.3 million a year by an AD who has been willing to pony up to keep his coach happy. I know he's made no secret about his sentimental attachment to Michigan, but why would he leave such a comfortable situation to take over a rebuilding program in a fading conference with expectations that are just as demanding as the ones he faces at LSU?
November 5th, 2014 at 3:33 PM ^
Miles knows how competitive the SEC has become and his chances of getting into the the playoffs are not that great even though his teams could whip most teams outside of the conference! I think Miles would be licking his chops coaching Michigan in an easy push over B1G conference! Miles would be my second choice after Jim Harbaugh!
November 5th, 2014 at 2:35 PM ^
Interested in them. Ha
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November 5th, 2014 at 2:42 PM ^
To the OP, I'd put Miles in tier 2; he can be a "holdover candidate" for 5-7 years but he'd need to bring his DC from LSU. And I'd put Whittingham at the bottom of tier 2. He is a poor man's Patterson IMO but more of a sure thing than a lot of tier 3 guys. And like others have said I'd not have the CSU guy up in tier 2.
That said I dont think there is any chance Patterson (has a great situation at a school he has been at 15 years) or Whittingham (Mormon in Utah who rebuffed TN) move. But if we are just talking about levels of yearning that's how I'd break it out.
November 5th, 2014 at 2:59 PM ^
Pipe Dreams (i.e., would love to have, but zero chance)
1) John Harbaugh
2) Jon Gruden
Tier 1
1) Jim Harbaugh (borderline pipe dream)
2) Dan Mullen
Tier 2
1) Gary Patterson
2) David Shaw
3) Kevin Sumlin
4) Kyle Whittingham
5) Pat Narduzzi
Tier 3
1) Jim McElwain
2) Gary Pinkel
3) Mike Gundy
4) Butch Jones
Do not want
-Les Miles
-Todd Graham
November 5th, 2014 at 3:02 PM ^
You forgot Brady Hoke in Tier 4
November 5th, 2014 at 3:20 PM ^
November 5th, 2014 at 3:23 PM ^
Harbaugh or Mullen. That's the list.
November 5th, 2014 at 3:24 PM ^
to get either of the Harbaughs if the money is right. However, I'm fearful that they will be too conservative in any contract offering.
The only other big name coaches who we could lure here are Mullen and Miles.
Otherwise, I'm willing to take a chance on Mark Stoops! I think he will turn into a great coach somewhere.
November 5th, 2014 at 3:25 PM ^
I'm fine with whoever they choose. Seriously. Just effin' win.
November 5th, 2014 at 3:27 PM ^
November 5th, 2014 at 3:37 PM ^
If we would have offered Miles he would have taken the job. Carr and the Michigan Men did not want Miles as head coach. If Miles would have been offered the job we would've already won a couple B1G championships and we would probably be playing for one of the playoffs spots this season!
November 5th, 2014 at 4:19 PM ^
Most people have two essential criteria for the new coach: 1) a strong track record of success, and 2) not being a scumbag. Miles meets the first criterion. What people are unsure about is the second criterion.