CC: Newsflash, Rosenberg makes sense. (Stay away CC post bashers)

RR is clearly an insurance policy if whatever this other option Brandon is chasing can't be worked out by January. I know people don't like it said that way, but thats the only logical explanation.

I agree that this analysis is the most likely scenario.  If Brandon had decided to keep RR he probably would have announced it because (1) it would be better for recruiting than uncertainty, (2) it would show him to be a decisive CEO type (Brandon is clearly possessed of a non-zero vanity),  (3) it would keep the assistants focused on the task at hand instead of scrambling for their next jobs, (4) there is more than a non-zero chance RR can be successful, notwithstanding his disappointing (other words also come to mind) showing to date, and (5) it would give him and his talent scouts a full year to find another Tressel in the small schools (something Martin should have begun doing in 2005, despite LC's hope that one of his assistants would succeed him).  But DB knows a lot of alumni are very unhappy and he is a little concerned that one more year might do lasting damage to what he so felicitously calls "the brand," so if he can get a definite crowd pleaser like Harbaugh, he leaves it open.  Thus, RR's job is hanging by a thread, but the DB won't cut that thread without someone to replace him.  DB is Lincoln to RR's McClellan.

Some people think DB is actually using the time to reflect and to think.  I am not one of them.  He is likely either using the time to find out if he can get the sexy choice in January or he is unwilling not to fire RR if the Gator Bowl is another embarrassment.  As for the second, I don't buy that, because if Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State weren't embarrassment enough, a debacle at the Gator Bowl won't be either.

If DB hasn't yet decided on a course of action, even this waffling one, he's not the right man for the job.

There is no way Harbaugh turns the job down, extension or no extension.

If Rich asks to be released from his contract, he will forfeit his buyout of $4m (allegedly $2.5m after Jan. 1).  He might also have to actually pay money to the school for him being the party who broke the contract.  Dave Brandon isn't holding Rich hostage, but the financial reality sure prevents Rich from walking prematurely.

Addressing your other points:

1. Waiting until the team is healthy really only gives a data point relevant to early season games and bowl games.  Teams don't stay healthy all year.  On top of that, we all know that Rich can win early season games - the question comes if the team can win when its NOT healthy, tired, and worn down.  The answer so far has generally been "no," and the bowl game will not address that issue at all - the season is not played with one month in between games to get healthy and coached up.

2. If Brandon is waiting in order to make retention more palatable to fans, he's taking an awful risk in waiting until after the bowl.  A debacle is still a possibility.  IMO, if Brandon wanted to wait for fans to calm down but still keep RR, he'd announce retention some time between now and Christmas.  Too soon, and he still has anger over the recent OSU loss.  Too late, and he looks like an idiot for announcing support for a coach, then watching him go out and potentially immediately lose in embarassing fashion.

There is a reason that a coach getting fired after a bowl game is a rare occurrence.  It pretty much kills recruiting for a year and damages the program more than an earlier change.  I would even think that if JH wants the Michigan job, he would want to make the move now rather than wait.  It isn't like Stanford is playing for anything.  Waiting makes no sense for RR or JH so I can only assume that Brandon doesn't know what he is doing and that this will end badly.  My confidence in DB is fading fast.

To be sure, what he has written today is a "column," not an "article."  Rosenberg's not reporting anything, other than his opinion.  As I briefly read it in a print copy just a while ago, Rosenberg didn't interview anybody.  (Who, at Michigan, has talked to any Free Press reporter or columnist lately?  Other than standard press conferences?  Even in Drew Sharp's recent diatribes, I got the impression that Sharp was just standing around, with his customary dumass expression, listening as Brandon answered questions in the tunnel at Crisler for the Harvard game.)

Rosenberg didn't share one bit of new reportorial information.  This was, as he might be the first to admit, just his opinion as a columnist.  It was a content-free, information-free, column.

And where, we might ask, does Rosenberg stand on the issue of Rich Rodriguez, as a columnist?

This was Jon Chait's position, going back to September of 2009.  That Michael Rosenberg could play the role of investigative journalist under an editor's supervision.  Or he could be an opinion-writing columnist, which really is what he is, and was before Stretchgate.  He can't play both roles.  At least not within commonly understood journalism ethical guidelines.  Which the Free Press steamrollered more than a year ago.

The entire mechanism of the Free Press has now been exposed, as an organ that is consumed with defending its own disastrously flawed reporting from a year ago, and by extension, consumed with seeing to it that Rich Rodriguez, whom they despise, is fired, and replaced by Jim Harbaugh, with whom Rosenberg apparently enjoys special access.  (Witness the SI article from October.)  The same kind of "special access" that Mitch Albom enjoyed with Bo Schembechler, via co-authorship deals, and that Rosenberg himself enjoyed with Lloyd Carr.

To the extent that anyone thinks the Free Press has a "right" to publish whatever the fuck it wants, that of course is true.  To the extent that readers of the Free Press think that they are reading ethical journalists who are just covering a topic and not attempting to drive an outcome -- that is a joke.

If this was the case, Urban Meyer would have been at Notre Dame the last six years

Joe Schad was having diarrhea of the mouth the other day on CFL about the UF opening.

and think that they are somehow still part of that group. They have such an inflated opinion of themselves that they can't envision a world where they are not needed, where people won't rush to kiss their respective asses regardless of the tripe they spew. If they are squirming now, imagine how they would writhe with RR at the helm of a winning program.

Lynn Henning, for one, and his stupid comments. Sure, he didn't claim emphatically on the radio that RR would be fired the Monday after The Game (like that ass clown Tom Deinhart wrote), but he insinuated as much and has yet to admit he was wrong in the least bit. "Blah Blah I was just giving an opinion." That happened to be pandering to the audience in Lansing, Lynn, you're transparent.

I'm sick of all traditional Detroit media that covers Michigan except the Ann Arbor News and M Daily sports (when I was in school, I was def not a Daily fan). Say what you want about those two, they at least seem to find some interesting news besides broad-based speculation about something in which they have no knowledge (ahem, see today's Rosenberg CC thread)...

Brandon is not simply wanting to screw with the media in general.

I do think it is pretty clear that he has an overwhelming dislike and disresepct for the Free Press.  He's said so, publicly, on an ever-increasing number of occasions.

Brandon, and the Athletic Department, have been giving exclusive info and access to Freep competitors like Lynn Henning of the Detroit News (that didn't work out so well), Larry Lage of the AP, and a few assorted broadcast outlets.  Nothing to the Free Press.

But in the end, this whole controversy, and all of the supposed urgency, has been driven by the media in the first place.  The newspaper columnists, who have done nothing to earn anyone's respect, seem to be angry that Brandon hasn't answered the question they created in the first place.  The exposed position of the Free Press is apparently, Hey, we've created an issue of doubt pertaining to Rich Rodriguez's future!  Why haven't you dealt with that issue?

this whole "evaluation period" is a nice cover. This way, Brandon has a stock answer for the media and can operate behind the scenes without revealing anything to anybody. No more Herbstreit blowing up a potential Miles hiring (who knows if it would've happened anyway), and no pressure cooker/loyalty test for the next potential coach when he's linked to another program weeks before his bowl game. Brandon can make his move, or decide not to, without embarassing any of the involved parties. On the other hand, what if Brandon has some sort of handshake agreement with Harbaugh and Michigan steamrolls MSU in the bowl game? I think the evaluation period is nice stiff arm to the media in any case. Their involvement in the last CC was certainly no help and probably a hindrance.

If RR thinks his job might be in jeopardy, nothing is stopping him from inquiring to Pitt, Florida, Miami, etc....about their coaching vacancies.

although I don't believe DB would be an ass for doing so. Stupid, yes.

IMO, he should have stated that he was going to wait until the end of the regular season. Doing that would give just as much of a chance to fairly grade RR on the progress of the team without having the extra month or so of rumors flying, or the chance of getting an opponent UM would not match up well against and unfairly tilt the evaluation away from RR.

It would also give the university time to conduct a proper search, if letting RR go was warranted, and allowing RR himself to conduct his own job search, which, whether or not one likes him, is a fair thing to do.

So, I concede your points on waiting until the bowl game is over, except for calling DB an ass. Sometimes, it is possible to let ones honor get in the way of doing the smart thing.

Completely agree.

Hey, who wants to bet that Brandon's "timetable"(that is supposed to end at the end of Micigan's season) is all of a sudden extended past Jan. 3rd because that's when Stanford plays in the Orange Bowl?

it's not just always about now, but about future coaching decision also.  He said he would wait until after the season for the review, and will operate this way for all sports and coaches.  

What if he changed his process this time and a similar situation comes up in the future?  Brandon wouldn't be able to say he always waits because he would have shown this to be not true already.

The business would is all about processes, and Brandon is sticking to this.    There is a reason for this no matter if it a process seems to be wrong at the time for a particular task.    Regardless of whether RR is fired or not everyone will now know what timelines Brandon will use and that will keep some of the fire off of him if a similar situation occurs again. 

As for recruiting - I didn't realize that the signing date was prior to the beginning of January.  A recruit can wait until after it is announced to keep or not keep Rodriguez, or -gasp - even change their mind and decommit.

While I am an ardent supporter of RR, I find it laughable to make the argument that it is unfair to RR to keep him waiting for a full evaluation for the following reasons:

• Giving a full evaluation is the process DB set out and has maintained. He has given expectations and is following them.
• Given the fact that we don't know all the circumstances, we have incomplete data in which to judge the situation. DB and RR say they communicate often. Whether this is true or not, RR has his office, home and cell numbers if he wants to speak to DB. If RR has a question or issue, he knows where to go.
• RR signed a contract. Whether or not there is speculation about his job, he is compensated ($2.5+mm) for all facets of his job including public attention, media scrutiny, high pressure to succeed, potential for dismissal. He is not making $2.5 mil to just coach football, kind of like how fire fighters aren't getting paid to just put out a fire, much of their compensation stems from the danger to which they subject themselves.
• As another poster indicated, RR can go ahead and interview for the Miami, Florida, Oklahoma OC, Denver Broncos, Birmingham Seaholm jobs whenever he would like to do so if he feels he is on his way out or doesn't want to be here anymore.
• If you read the stories about what RR has been though from Glenville State, to Tulsa, to Clemson, to WV - he knew what he was getting into as a football coach - the lifestyle, the pressure, etc. He's a big boy.

I really want to see RR on the sideline in 2011, but RR is making more in the month of December and from his bowl incentives than I will make all year, so if that's unfair, I'll take unfair all year long.

Wow. This was the best break down of the coaching decision I have read.

Honest question: Would Rich Rod really be twisting in the wind any less if DB had come out and said on Monday following the OSU game that Rich Rod has his full confidence and will be the head coach next season?  There would still be plenty of people (cough, cough... Rosenberg) floating the rumor that Harbaugh wants to coach the season through Stanford's bowl game, and after that Rich Rod is fired and JH is brought in, at the same time saving UM $1M in buyout money.  Or people saying, just wait until UM gets smoked in a bowl game.  There would certainly be less talk about the potential chanbe, but I don't think the pressure and feeling like he's "twisting in the wind" would be any less.

The only way Rich Rod would be safe through the bowl season would have been for DB to offer an extension that significantly increased buyout.  Frankly, he doesn't deserve that, and would be an extremely poor decision on DB's part, since even Rich Rod supporters would admit he only has one more year to prove he can succeed at Michigan.

I don't know why you thought you'd be negged for this comment as I think a lot of us feel the same way.

Dave Brandon does what he feels is best for the university. Think about this for a little bit. Negative perception comes from the media and fanbase. DB is sticking to his plan. He doesn't pander to the fans, media, or coaches. If he comes out to appease you(the fan who disagrees with his plan) then what kind of AD is he? He has to do things his way, that is what leaders do. He has no need to reassure a "good man" like coach Rod. He is the boss, he has the right to make coaches think about their future(especially if the teams performance isn't up to standards). I don't necessarily agree with his method but I admire him for being a man who operates fairly towards all of his coaches. He doesn't give in because football gets extra media scrutiny. He will treat all the athletic coaches the same, except for basketball, because of their problems with facilties. I believe RR will come back (and I believe strongly he should come back) but to tell your coaches ahead of time that they are safe is breaking the plan that you have for running the athletics department. How does that make you look as a leader?

People are reading way more into this than they need to. Just because his timeline presents obstacles it doesn't change the fact that DB is a man of integrity. He has a plan and has a set way in which he does business. Will a few recruits bolt after this year? Maybe. In the future though he has set a precedent for how things work here. In the future recruits will remember not to listen to the media and negative fanbase when making decisions about our university. Instead they will see that DB does not bend in the face of controversy. If he comes out and tells the media that he had overwhelming support for RR all along after this process ends, that strengthens the program in my opinion. Why? Because he has put an example out there of how things will run under his leadership. He does not change plans under any circumstance and that is called consistency. It's one of the most important attributes a leader can have. Period. If you don't see this, then I don't know what else to tell you. It's not stupid at all what he is doing though, I promise you that.

is that if DB has already decided he's firing RR, why take the "non-zero" risk that UM might actually  (gasp!) play out of their fucking minds on Jan. 1 and litter the field with the southern pride and Bulldog testicles*?

A super-impressive display of Denarding plus a surprisingly competent display from the defense could translate into a smoking of said Bulldogs.  I don't expect this, but it's a "risk" if you're DB-- because how do you can him after they play their best game of the RR era?   Why risk him winning by four touchdowns on New Year's Day?

To me, the most likely result is that he's leaning heavily to one side (probably firing) but he's genuinely open to RR giving him a sufficient excuse to keep him.  He said he's looking for progress.   Bulldog testicles strewn across the Gator Bowl= progress*. 

*no animals will be harmed in the unlikely but hopeful realization of this scenario

I agree that his decision will not be based on the results of the bowl, but waiting until after that game has good odds of putting Brandon in the very awkward position of either 1) firing RR after a win, or 2) retaining him after a loss.  If either of those situations happen, then I think it was clear that the decision was made long before the game, and the delay in the announcement becomes even harder to fathom.

I will respectfully disagree with you (sorry, just my opinion). The bowl layover gives the young team essentially another round of spring ball equivalent. It's not unreasonable for DB to take this as another data point to see if the team has made more progression during this time. If they don't make any progress and get blown away in an embarrassing fashion, I do think the bowl game will have essentially decided our coaches fate. However, I don't expect that to happen. I expect the team to come out and play a fundamentally sound (or at least moreso than the second half of the season) football game. I don't think it matter if we win or lose, but rather if we look like a more complete and competent football team. Ya dig?

As I am about our program doing so. For a month. Unnecessarily if Rich is brought back.

if we get shredded like OSU and Wisconsin...Thats 3 bad games in a row...I dont see him surviving that, but what do I know.  I want RR to stay regardless.  Can you imagine how much better this Offensive will be? and with an improved, more experienced D? could be Magic

You have some valid points, but I can't support your last sentence.  Dee Hart was wanted by Florida and everyone else.  Dallas Crawford was wanted by Miami.  Denard was wanted by Florida as well.  Devin Gardner was wanted by OSU. I don't think you can make a blanket statement like that. 

... I'm not making assumptions.  I'm only saying that his column is no different than anybody else's in that it is, just as you say, his opinion.  Problem is, his opinion has been so discredited because of his terrible reporting that until he brings real analysis and hard data I'm not going to pay it any creed.  He is a fool with a pen who happened to be somewhat witty.  His wit got him by, but there is a very real case that he is either a) a  lazy reporter or b) a scorned ex-lover.   

Have a look at the Jim Harbaugh situation, and the 2012 schedule. Harbaugh won't be available, most likely, for 5 years after this offseason. Furthermore, the road 2012 schedule is death on wheels. Hiring a new coach before road trips to Dallas, Columbus, Lincoln, South Bend and (gasp) Minneapolis is just setting up a dead season.

So, based on a confluence of unique factors, the coaching change, if it is to happen, must happen this off-season.