CC: I Typed This Before Brian Posted His Update, So You Have No Choice But to Read It Even if It Is Irrelevant
I find it strange how I am compelled against my will to click any post with CC in the subject line. Clearly, the likelihood that Jim Harbaugh is disclosing anything at all related to this topic on the day of his bowl game against Virginia Tech is zero. And the likelihood that anyone has heard anything of substance (since Harbaugh is out of circulation) is zero. Yet, I must look. Not only must I look, but these bits of fanciful opinion enter into my psyche and alternately excite and depress me.
The truth is that Jim Harbaugh is coaching Stanford in a lead up to the most important bowl for that school in many a year. For him, there was football over the weekend, not negotiations. Do I know this for a fact? Of course not, but even the rudimentary common sense argues that there has been limited contact between Brandon and Harbaugh before the bowl game tonight, and that there will be expanded contact after the bowl game.
"Jim, Dave Brandon here."
"Dave, how are you?"
"Well, Jim, after a 30 point loss to that sniveling little twit in a sweater vest, I'm not good."
"I hear you. I am glad Bo is not alive to see this."
"Are you ready to come back to Ann Arbor and put things right?"
"It's the call I've been waiting for, Dave."
"Good luck in your bowl in January. We'll talk after your victory."
"Sounds like a plan."
Again, common sense would suggest that the substance of this exchange if not necessarily the detail is what has taken place to date. It would provide a sound basis for explaining Brandon's behavior in letting Rodriguez twist in the wind at the expense of effective recruiting. Perhaps this contact took place through intermediaries, but again everthing indicates that Brandon, a smart man, is not stumbling forward into the first week of January on a hope that Harbaugh might want to return to Ann Arbor. Smart men don't hope, they know. This, of course, does not rule out that Dave Brandon could've had such a conversation with another coaching candidate of his choosing. Either way, I would argue that he has confidence in what he wants to accomplish this week or else he would have behaved differently in the month following the Ohio State debacle.
Furthermore, we would be wise to not forget that Jim Harbaugh is a hot commodity for open coaching positions in the NFL, and that, last I checked, the NFL is hardly a museum for saints. ESPN and Bleacherreport "sources" might reasonably include those that would like to create another Les Miles firestorm to tip the scales in favor of an undecided Harbaugh choosing the right NFL franchise.
In the end, do you agree or disagree that we can be fairly confident of the following?
- Brandon's behavior at the end of the season indicated that Rich Rodriguez would be terminated,
- Brandon waiting at the end of the season indicated that he had to wait until after bowl games to fully engage his replacement,
- There exist countless back channels of communication between Brandon and Harbaugh,
- The precedent of the Les Miles situation counsels discretion,
- Jim Harbaugh, also aware of similar precedents, would be exceptionally motivated to avoiding loose talk, opinion, Kirk Herbstreit, and anything else that might distract from him coaching his Stanford Cardinals football team with decorum,
- If Jim Harbaugh had interest in the Michigan job, he could discretely communicate this to the right people in Ann Arbor,
- Further to the goal of being discreet, if any communication were to take place between Harbaugh and Brandon, it would be succinct and not require the involvement of potentially leaky entities such as lawyers and agents,
- There is one piece of evidence that Harbaugh will be leaving Stanford: his refusal to sign an extension which would have comforted his team and solidified recruiting,
- Harbaugh has a special place in his heart for Michigan that he does not have for San Francisco, Denver or Carolina of the NFL,
- If he passes on Michigan, he would likely be passing on ever coaching at Michigan, both because the next coach has a decent shot to be at Michigan at least as long as his NFL career and because it is a rarity for successful NFL coaches to reenter the college game later in their careers.
I'm quite sure that the comments will reflect a large number of posters disagreeing with some of these points. We come here for the debate, so that's fine; the larger point is that I don't think anything has substantively changed between Dave Brandon and Jim Harbaugh in the last week. It's just not the appropriate time for those changes to be in play.
Do I hope Jim Harbaugh is our next coach? Absolutely. Not only to imagine him delivering this statement to a top recruit --
"So, you want to play in the NFL, Alan? I can understand why. The 15 years I spent there as a player were a phenomenal time in my life. I've coached in the NFL. My brother's a head coach in the NFL. All my assistant coaches are handpicked from the NFL. My teams play hard-nosed, smash mouth NFL style football. Alan, look around the Big Ten and the rest of the country and you won't find any staff with more knowledge of the NFL who are better prepared to help the young men go on to the next level."
-- but because I know and you know that he understands our rivalries deep in his bones. I used to think this didn't matter. I now know that it does.
January 3rd, 2011 at 5:14 PM ^
who is alan?
January 3rd, 2011 at 5:58 PM ^
Branch, Jr. We need some d-line recruits!
January 3rd, 2011 at 5:15 PM ^
I hate that I cannot refrain from clicking a thread with "CC" in the title. And I hate even more that I clicked on your thread even though you personally offended me by calling me out in your title by recognizing that I cannot help myself.
January 3rd, 2011 at 5:16 PM ^
Alan Branch is coming back to graduate school.
January 3rd, 2011 at 6:42 PM ^
just for posting that picture.
January 3rd, 2011 at 5:16 PM ^
Everyone knows that, over the phone, Jim Harbaugh likes to be addressed as Ziggy Harbaugh.
January 3rd, 2011 at 5:18 PM ^
Alan's only a three star.....NEXT!
January 3rd, 2011 at 5:18 PM ^
but because I know and you know that he understands our rivalries deep in his bones. I used to think this didn't matter. I now know that it does.
One of the many things we've learned over the last 3 years. Another being how important selling the next level to recruits is in landing those recruits.
January 3rd, 2011 at 5:21 PM ^
I am glad you decided to post this.
January 3rd, 2011 at 5:23 PM ^
Thanks. I was afraid to post it as a Diary.
January 3rd, 2011 at 5:59 PM ^
or sleeping.
January 3rd, 2011 at 5:43 PM ^
January 3rd, 2011 at 5:24 PM ^
On one hand - I like your post because it reeks of rational thought. On the other hand - I don't like your post because I think you've gone a little mad. What's wrong with this (simplified) scenario?
- Brandon's behavior at the end of the season proved there was a non-zero chance RR would be fired
- Knowing how "Miles to Michigan" played out, DB has decided to stay away from sea-faring vessels and speak with potential replacements himself, without the use of lawyers or agents
- RR forgets to coach the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarters of the Gator Bowl, prompting "CC-apalooza" on MGoBlog
- ESPN picks up "Harbaugh to..." story, MGoBlog begins to implode.
If you wanted to go a little mad, you could infer those WVU rumors are true:
- DB came to RR sometime late in the season and said "hire a great DC who knows the 3-3-5 or you're done"
- RR goes after Casteel
- WVU protects Casteel by putting BS out to pasture
- Casteel tells RR "no thanks"
- RR cries to Groban song at banquet
Boom. There's your story.
January 3rd, 2011 at 5:26 PM ^
I don't like that version. I never liked William of Occam.
January 3rd, 2011 at 5:26 PM ^
January 3rd, 2011 at 5:33 PM ^
Can you please tell me what RR has done at Michigan (not at WVU in the Big East) that you so want him back?
Certainly, you would concede that he has mismanaged both the defensive recruiting and the defensive staffing?
Certainly, you would concede that he has done a disastrous job coaching the special teams?
Certainly, you would concede that our team has demonstrated poor fundamentals for THREE STRAIGHT SEASONS? (and, as you know from reading this blog, RR's WVU teams were amongst the worst in the country in this metric as well).
Certainly, you would concede that our "high powered offense" was completely shut down after the first drive or two against both OSU and MSU (Gator)? And that this same high powered offense stalled miserably against MSU (yes, that one), Iowa, Wisco and Penn State (!!)?
Certainly, you would concede that RR's B10 record is at least reasonable cause to believe that he is not suited to coach in the B10?
Do you disagree with any of these points? If so, which ones, as I would like to debate the points. And, if you do agree, how in hell could you want RR back?
January 3rd, 2011 at 5:38 PM ^
And another one that I think eliminates RR no matter how the CC plays out: he has lost the team. Unrest on defense, an offense that knows it can be stopped by big time defenses. He doesn't have them anymore, IMO.
January 3rd, 2011 at 6:12 PM ^
You have absolutely no basis for saying that. On the other hand....
January 3rd, 2011 at 6:21 PM ^
Dan, good post.
For anyone interested, one of the best summaries of RR's tenure at Michigan remains the November 29 2010 (re)post on Genuinely Sarcastic, http://genuinelysarcastic.blogspot.com/
It is detailed, fair, and cogent. It was prescient and remains absolutely on target.
J. Swift
January 3rd, 2011 at 5:45 PM ^
January 3rd, 2011 at 6:08 PM ^
I'll take a shot:
Can you please tell me what RR has done at Michigan (not at WVU in the Big East) that you so want him back?
The offense is nuclear. And young. If it was someone other than RR coaching the team, most people would chalk up the 14-point bowl game and 7-point OSU game to youth. Most of those guys, Denard especially, it was their first experience in a situation like that. With RR, for some that becomes evidence of his inability to coach. In less than three years he achieved a 100% revolution on offense and turned it into the ninja football we expected. Repeat: he did exactly what we expected him to do and did it in three years, a remarkable time span. The next step is consistency.
Certainly, you would concede that he has mismanaged both the defensive recruiting and the defensive staffing?
Yes and no. In hindsight, we should have kept Shafer and treated Gerg like toxic waste, but we were the ones who were onboard with the idea that Shafer was a disaster. I think Bruce Tall has proven worthwhile. And I don't find much fault with his defensive recruiting. Roh is excellent. JT Turner and Vlad Emilien were wanted by Tressel as much as Rodriguez, and Will Campbell was highly recruited too. Put Woolfolk and Warren on this team like they should have been and nobody would be talking about how bad the secondary is.
Certainly, you would concede that he has done a disastrous job coaching the special teams?
I would not. There is nothing wrong with our coverage teams. Our problems are field goal kicking and hanging onto punts. How can you predict the kicking struggles? Guys who can't kick, can't kick. How much coaching can you do to prevent butterfingers?
Certainly, you would concede that our team has demonstrated poor fundamentals for THREE STRAIGHT SEASONS?
This is purely a matter of opinion, and I don't think the UFRs support this to the extent you'd have us believe.
Certainly, you would concede that our "high powered offense" was completely shut down after the first drive or two against both OSU and MSU (Gator)? And that this same high powered offense stalled miserably against MSU (yes, that one), Iowa, Wisco and Penn State (!!)?
As I've said, any other coach and we'd be chalking it up to the team's extreme youth. And an offense that scores 28 and 31 points and tops 500 yards in the process of "stalling miserably" is every coach and fan's wet dream.
Certainly, you would concede that RR's B10 record is at least reasonable cause to believe that he is not suited to coach in the B10?
What does it mean to be "suited to coach in the Big Ten?" To me this is an invention of the anti-RR crowd. What does it require to be suited to coach in the Big Ten? What is different about the Big Ten? RR is 15-22 in his first three years. Jim Harbaugh was 17-20 in his first three at Stanford. Two games is that big of a difference?
January 3rd, 2011 at 5:29 PM ^
I am inclined to take Brandon at his word, though, when he said that he wanted to wait to see what happened in the bowl. For this reason, I very much doubt that negotiations could have "fallen apart" with Harbaugh this weekend. If you accept the premise that Brandon wanted to wait for the bowl outcome to make a decision and you accept the the "negotiations fell apart story," you have to believe that negotations started with Harbaugh after 4:30 on Saturday and then fell apart by the end of the weekend. That seems fast.
January 3rd, 2011 at 5:28 PM ^
From your mock dialogue with Alan. One of the things that I have not loved about the RR era is that RR's style of offense, as exciting as it is (when we play weak defenses - not so exciting when it is being shut down) is not as likely to produce a significant pipeline of NFL talent. Florida even recently recognized this and one of the main reasons that I have heard in Florida circles for the switch to a pro-style coach was a desire to produce more NFL talent on offense.
I would personally prefer to see whomever replaces RR be a pro-style coach who can recruit and turn out NFL prospects. The best part of watching the NFL is watching our successful alum - guys like Breaston, Avant, Braylon, Woodson, Henne, Woodley, Hall and a certain guy named Brady - continue their careers at the next level.
January 3rd, 2011 at 5:36 PM ^
At this point, I don't think anyone can argue that you can't win with the spread or any number of other offenses. Florida won two national titles with the spread. Alabama won with a mixed offense last year. The national champion this year is going to be a spread team. Georgia Tech made it to the Orange Bowl running the triple option. USC did all their winning with a pro style offense...My point is that a scheme may turn off this guy or that guy, but you can win with anything.
January 3rd, 2011 at 5:43 PM ^
Like you, I like watching our players join the NFL and do well (particularly if he happens to be wearing a Lions uniform). But, I don't think the system RR uses would preclude our kids from playing in the NFL. Most people seem to think Cam Gordon will do well in the NFL, and he is basically a bigger, stronger and perhaps not quite as fast version of Denard. So, if Denard can get his fundamentals down over the next two years and put on a little more muscle and weight, we may well be watching him on Sundays. The same is true of a number of other players, like Molk and Lewan. What we need are top flight recruits who play the spread as well as the folks currently playing what looks to me to be a pretty similar offense at Oregon and at Auburn.
January 3rd, 2011 at 6:13 PM ^
Wouldn't be surprised if cam gordon develops into a NFL prospect, but pretty sure you meant Newton.
January 3rd, 2011 at 6:26 PM ^
Cam Newton is indeed who I meant. The jury is still out on Cam Gordon but I have hopes for him, as well.
January 3rd, 2011 at 5:36 PM ^
This is JH agent getting more money and the media falling for it and generating non-issue tweets/source and propping them up to make them into stories for their companies. So its JH win and media win.
January 3rd, 2011 at 8:30 PM ^
I really don't care how much we play JH. At this point if he comes here, I would consider it a win for Michigan because I'd shudder to think of the alternatives.
January 3rd, 2011 at 5:37 PM ^
Dreaming of this, dreaming of this - my only nitpick is that I would hope he (JH) avoided Kirk Herbstreit *before* this as well...
January 3rd, 2011 at 5:37 PM ^
David Brandon is a smart guy, and possibly the best politician we have had at Michigan since Gerald Ford. It is my hope that Harbaugh has accepted the job, asking Brandon to keep this quiet until after the bowl game. There is a good deal of circumstantial evidence that suggest this may be the case, and absolutely no evidence to the contrary. If this silence is in response to Harbaugh's wishes, it has been executed flawlessly. In the meantime, it has been reassuring to see a jovial Brandon mingling from his highly visible seat at Crisler, most recently in a less than flattering maize sweatshirt that absolutely shouts his love for Michigan athletics. If Harbaugh is announced as head coach Wed. or Thurs, it will mark the end {or beginning if you will) of a calculated plan flawlessly executed.
January 3rd, 2011 at 5:41 PM ^
Brandon's behavior at the end of the season indicated that Rich Rodriguez would be terminated,
Brandon's stated something at the beginning of the season and stuck to his statement through our ups and our downs this season. While I'm sure he was analyzing the situation week to week, I don't think he made any indication that RR was as good as gone in his mind prematurely.
Brandon waiting at the end of the season indicated that he had to wait until after bowl games to fully engage his replacement,
Again, I think this was his plan from the get go, let the entire season play out then evaluate.
There exist countless back channels of communication between Brandon and Harbaugh,
I agree here, I'd be hard pressed to believe they hadn't communicated, but to what to degree is just sheer speculation once again.
The precedent of the Les Miles situation counsels discretion
Brandon is not Martin, if he is making any behind the scenes decisions, I have faith that the CEO of a company that made shitty pizza yet still made money can figure out how to properly handle things with discretion.
Jim Harbaugh, also aware of similar precedents, would be exceptionally motivated to avoiding loose talk, opinion, Kirk Herbstreit, and anything else that might distract from him coaching his Stanford Cardinals football team with decorum
To me, any coach that is about to play a major game and is pondering a major career change isn't going to allow negative emotions into his locker room. He is a football coach after all, and his priority is always going to be the next game he has to coach.
If Jim Harbaugh had interest in the Michigan job, he could discretely communicate this to the right people in Ann Arbor
Well, this is the question of the moment right now in the entire NFL and college coaching sphere right now... we'll know soon enough .. but the writing is on the wall... Harbaugh's comments about not signing an extension are more indicative of him moving on, but everyone is still guessing to where
Further to the goal of being discreet, if any communication were to take place between Harbaugh and Brandon, it would be succinct and not require the involvement of potentially leaky entities such as lawyers and agents,
Well... yeah I'd hope so. Please note how know one can get a direct link to what Jim Harbaugh or DB are thinking or have spoken to one another about.
There is one piece of evidence that Harbaugh will be leaving Stanford: his refusal to sign an extension which would have comforted his team and solidified recruiting
Agree.
Harbaugh has a special place in his heart for Michigan that he does not have for San Francisco, Denver or Carolina of the NFL,
I would hope so. I would also hope that he would rescind his negative statements that were directed at the program several years ago before he comes back and says how he always really loved michigan.
If he passes on Michigan, he would likely be passing on ever coaching at Michigan, both because the next coach has a decent shot to be at Michigan at least as long as his NFL career and because it is a rarity for successful NFL coaches to reenter the college game later in their careers.
Too many variables at play to really even try and assess this one. Then again that is probably true for this entire post, but this one is looking years down the line rather than the next month and the past few.
January 3rd, 2011 at 5:54 PM ^
Good comments. I really find it hard to believe, though, that Brandon was in doubt after OSU. My opinion. But if he was still thinking RR was viable, he could have, should have, would have bolstered him up for recruiting and continuity purposes. If Brandon really and truly had no idea what RR's fate was until 1/1/2011, then we are about to see a disaster unfold.
January 3rd, 2011 at 6:10 PM ^
If I had to make up some random DB-JH conversation in my head that occured post OSU... it'd probably have been more along the lines of "If Rich doesn't show me his team can produce when healthy, you're in Jim"
January 3rd, 2011 at 5:54 PM ^
Meeechigan Dan you knocked it out of the park. That was a walk-off home run if there there was one. (Enough, baseball cliche's).
I certainly hope you are right. In my heart of hearts I believe JH hasn't told anyone outside of DB what he is planning and DB hasn't told anyone except his target what he wants.
I will watch the game tonight with great anticipation as I see our future in the team playing Virgiinia Tech tonight.
From an emotional perspective, Harbaugh is the ONLY coach who can "heal the wounds in our lands". If he comes here, there will be a collective sigh of relief and Michigan Football can get back on track. I don't know how long it will take, but I believe it will be shorter than most suspect.
I think he will do for Michigan what Pete Carroll did for USC when he came. He updated an out of touch program and brought it to the forefront of college football. The only difference, Harbaugh won't cheat or allow a rule to be broken in doing so.
Rich Rodriguez, thank you for what you have done, but unfortunately, Michigan is going in a different direction. Godspeed, and I wish you great success where ever you go.
January 3rd, 2011 at 5:56 PM ^
I read your whole post using Bo's voice inside my head. The avatar requires this.
January 3rd, 2011 at 6:01 PM ^
That was great. The national media doesn't get that Michigan and Harbaugh have the level of rapport because of his connection here, that it really is that simple to establish the future together. It is damn near leak proof.
These NFL teams slobbering all over the place in Miami interrupting his special time don't get it. Michigan is way further along in the process without doing anything beyond what this excellent post suggests.
Jim Harbaugh will come to Michigan give us back our program.
January 3rd, 2011 at 7:22 PM ^
about that rapport thing!
January 3rd, 2011 at 8:20 PM ^
Very well put, Dan. I've always been a fan of your posts.
Two minor areas of contention:
This, of course, does not rule out that Dave Brandon could've had such a conversation with another coaching candidate of his choosing.Despite the insane amount of speculation in recent days, I've yet to hear the name of a coach other than Jim with a feasible shot of being a candidate for the HC position. Second, I think (and hope) that DB's plan in November would have been to hope Harbaugh accepts the offer (I doubt he would have guaranteed he would come back to UM) and replace the D staff, keeping RR, as a backup plan. Third, "Cardinal" is singular. I think it's a tree or something...
January 3rd, 2011 at 10:10 PM ^
I just realized the tree thing watching the game.