CC Harbaugh decision logic

Submitted by jmdblue on

So I'm still doubtful we wind up with Harbaugh, but I'm becoming more hopeful.  Brian's daily assessment of the situation appears to rely on 3 things: his own insider sources; public reports; and applying logic to whether any of it makes sense assuming JH is a rational actor.  With SF being out of the playoffs, I think we may have more to go on fairly shortly (as Brian said last week).  Couple items to think about:

If Harbaugh is truly interested in the job, it would benefit him to begin allowing some signaling  of that interest in order to "freeze" potential recruits for another couple weeks while he makes a decision.  

Also, on a less logical more speculative angle, the dude is now playing out a string after a very difficult year marred by both poor play and disintegrating professional relationships. Now he has an opportunity to lead a bunch of talented college kids, desperate for a fresh start..  He also has an opportunity to step into a select few living rooms with a story no one else can tell. Somehow coached Stanford to prominence.  Turned a tire fire in SF to a Super Bowl team.  Now back to revive his alma mater. Think maybe he'd be invited into Mikey Weber's house?  Sounds like a great way to wash away the stench of a shitty season and sooner may feel better than later.

Here's hoping. 

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MichiganExile

December 15th, 2014 at 2:05 PM ^

John Schneider is the GM. However, Pete Carroll hand picked him to be the GM after Carroll was hired in 2010. Pete has almost complete control over personnel decisions. John Schneider handles the salary cap and contract issues. Basically, if Pete wants to go after or keep a guy it is John's job to make it happen. They have a very successful partnership obviously. 

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michelin

December 15th, 2014 at 2:42 PM ^

If Carroll has almost complete control over personnel decisions, then he has taken on the GM's most important decision making functions.. It sounds like Carroll has powers comparable to Bill Belichick's on the Pats.  While a traditional GM has power to fire a coach, that is hardly the case in New England.  And when the Pats owner, Bob Kraft, looks for final decisions about who to draft and what personnel to keep, he looks to Bill, not the guy who is, technically, the GM. .

In any case, what you call a coach with such GM-like-powers is not really relevant to my main point. Harbaugh could view such GM-like powers as having control.  Indeed, it is widely assumed that if Harbaugh were hired with such powers, the Oakland owner would need to get rid of his current GM---who has recently controlled drafting decisions.

 

 

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MichiganExile

December 15th, 2014 at 2:51 PM ^

Oh definitely agree with you, I wasn't arguing against your description just kind of elucidating the finer points of Carroll's GM powers to other people that may not understand. He actually has a very good gig in Seattle. If Harbaugh could get a similar deal anywhere he'd almost be a fool not to take it. It's the equivalent of the total power a college coach has on the stage of the NFL. It's not even about job security it's about running the organization and the team using the players and system you want. Harbaugh already had to learn the hard way what dysfunctional leadership at the top does to the product you put on the field. Coincidentally the Michigan fanbase learned that the past 4 years as well. 

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michelin

December 15th, 2014 at 3:33 PM ^

Even if given full control like Carroll or Belichick, he would be coaching a Raiders team that has been horrible for more than a decade.

Merely having the capacity to make more managment choices may offer the illusion of a rosy future. But people often overestimate their capacities to control many outcomes that they do not significantly control. Will current Oakland players that went 0-10 to start the year turn into stars?  Even if Harbaugh makes draft choices that seem wise initially, who really knows how well they will turn out in several years?  And will the Davis family owners who kept their team out of the playoffs for 12 years suddenly become the embodiment of all earthly wisdom?

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MichiganExile

December 15th, 2014 at 5:04 PM ^

Jim Harbaugh took a 49ers team to the NFC chamionship game in his first year. A 49ers team that hadn't sniffed the playoffs since 2002. Prior to his arrival their recent history was not unlike the Raiders. Harbaugh's only downfall in SF has been the dysfunction in management and ownership. It is conceivable, that if Harbaugh was given a role as coach/GM it helps quell his concerns about dealing with management. The only roadblock then is the role the Davises decide to play in running the day-to-day. History would not be kind in that regard to Oakland. A coach/GM position in one of the 32 NFL franchises, a deal only a handful of guys have ever gotten in history, is a very attractive proposition. It is quite literally the absolute top of the football coaching profession. So yeah, as bad as Oakland has been recently, turning down the kind of deal Pete Carroll has could be argued as foolish. 

 

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michelin

December 15th, 2014 at 7:15 PM ^

Perhaps our apparent disagreement arises because you focus on how Harbaugh actually will choose, while I focus on how he should do so.

True, management powers would seem like a feather in his cap. They have been given to some very distinguished coaches.   But they also have been given to guys like Lovie Smith and others with a less than stellar win pct.  IMO, more management power, while sometimes awarded for past success, does not assure future success.

In fact, managment activities--especially in a perenially awful team like the Raiders-- may divert a coach from his day-to-day responsibilities.  Also, many good coaches may not be good managers.  While Harbaugh has taken bad teams and made them good, he has done do as a coach, not as a GM.

I believe that the reason why Belichick has done well with such dual roles is that he is not just smart--like Harbaugh--but also has a managerial economics background.  That enables him to make wise choices about the allocation of limited salary cap resources as well as identify opportunities to exploit other managers’ poor choices (eg when they trade high future draft picks for lower current ones). 

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charblue.

December 15th, 2014 at 2:19 PM ^

Harbaugh is in the driver's seat and the 49ers put him there by making so many veiled threats about dropping him as their coach if the team did not win the Super Bowl. Season over with two games left.

Harbaugh has all the leverage to decide his future and that is the only choice for him to really make, because the details once that choice is made and communicated will dictate how Michigan acts going forward I think the school will want an answer before Christmas.

There are no other deadlibes. This isn't about getting a coach to salvage recruiting. This is about getting the best coach to save the program. So, that is why the deliberation in the process of hiring Harbaugh. Clearly, I don't thnk he's made up his mind what he wants to do.

That is the hurdle, not whether any NFL team will give him more money or control than Michigan. It's not about that. And because it isn't, and because there are no insiders to talk except the decider himself who relies only on family for internal decision-making, you won't get any lead on his response until he conveys it to Michigan.

Michigan is first in and first out in this process. You will know whether its happening if the wait continues past Christmas.

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michelin

December 15th, 2014 at 2:57 PM ^

The only point made relevant to mine seems to suggest that Harbaugh cannot talk with other teams and so is faced with a simple yes or no answer for UM.  But clearly, he already has some idea about what his likely alternative choices might be. 

My only point is that he should be careful about taking an unrealistically rosy view of those alternatives.  That would especially be true given your point about his limited capacities now to talk to other teams.

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westwardwolverine

December 15th, 2014 at 1:16 PM ^

After years of turmoil, side-picking and infighting, is there a candidate that would unite MGoBlog more than Jim Harbaugh?

What would we even do with ourselves when we're all in agreement? 

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westwardwolverine

December 15th, 2014 at 1:35 PM ^

Yeah you're probably right. I think we've still got a few more years of "RRs OFFENSE DIDNT WORK AGAINST GOOD TEAMS" left in us. Not to mention a whole new round of everyone's favorite topic "HOKE IS THE SINGLE GREATEST HUMAN BEING ALIVE" to get into. 

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MGoMom

December 15th, 2014 at 1:38 PM ^

Don,
You've always been a skeptic about Jim Harbaugh's love for the University of Michigan and you site that quote about him reminiscing about Stanford's stadium. I wonder if you've you seen this more recent (October 30th, 2013) video of him talking on ESPN. Does this change your mind? You can fast forward to 2:39 for the relevant question and answer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-sg6ISYbL58

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mackbru

December 15th, 2014 at 1:42 PM ^

Michigan doesn't need to "freeze" its few remaining recruits. Hackett said the coach will be hired by the beginning of the year. Recruits won't be doing much in the meantime. And there's no need to make a hasty hire just to satisfy the whims of a few recruits. That would be incredibly short-sighted. Make the best hire, not the fastest. Think long-term.

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CFBXM

December 15th, 2014 at 9:28 PM ^

at his press conference a little while ago he asked to go "off the record" and stated that he has no interest in the Michigan job and has no interest in leaving LSU.

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