CC Harbaugh decision logic

Submitted by jmdblue on

So I'm still doubtful we wind up with Harbaugh, but I'm becoming more hopeful.  Brian's daily assessment of the situation appears to rely on 3 things: his own insider sources; public reports; and applying logic to whether any of it makes sense assuming JH is a rational actor.  With SF being out of the playoffs, I think we may have more to go on fairly shortly (as Brian said last week).  Couple items to think about:

If Harbaugh is truly interested in the job, it would benefit him to begin allowing some signaling  of that interest in order to "freeze" potential recruits for another couple weeks while he makes a decision.  

Also, on a less logical more speculative angle, the dude is now playing out a string after a very difficult year marred by both poor play and disintegrating professional relationships. Now he has an opportunity to lead a bunch of talented college kids, desperate for a fresh start..  He also has an opportunity to step into a select few living rooms with a story no one else can tell. Somehow coached Stanford to prominence.  Turned a tire fire in SF to a Super Bowl team.  Now back to revive his alma mater. Think maybe he'd be invited into Mikey Weber's house?  Sounds like a great way to wash away the stench of a shitty season and sooner may feel better than later.

Here's hoping. 

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'07LesMilesMafia

December 15th, 2014 at 12:15 PM ^

he's a professional and he's gna do his best to finish out the year.  i've got nothing but respect for that.  

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Jalm

December 15th, 2014 at 12:33 PM ^

If he was Michigan coach and we had 2 games left would you want him giving hints/saying he was interested in another job or preparing for another job publicly? not very professional. He should wait until his responsibilities are finished with SF. Sure there's probably some back channel discussions going on but they shouldn't be public.

Joined: 10/25/2013

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Muttley

December 15th, 2014 at 1:01 PM ^

Contracts and the draft bind players to a team.  There's nothing binding incoming college recruits until signing day and on-campus players can transfer if they are willing to sit out a year.  In the NFL, players are released the following year if they don't make the team.

In short, both player and coaching turnover makes the NFL much more of a year-to-year proposition. 

Not making the playoffs is a bigger blow to immediate morale than Harbaugh leaving.  The goal for this year is unreachable, and players will be mustering their enthusiasm from professional pride and from knowing that every game provides evaluation film on each player.

The confirmation that the 49ers will have a different coach next year--a common occupational hazard--is well down the list of motivational factors.

 

Joined: 07/07/2009

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sierragold

December 15th, 2014 at 1:09 PM ^

Michigan fan would want him to actually do anything like that, a little bit of sarcasm on mgoblog shouldn't be taken that serious.

Unless the 49ers management does something prior to the end of the season we are all in the dark. I do not picture upper brass being this stupid. Harbaugh has been doing exactly what anyone should do in his situation "Say Nothing" except to those closest to the situation and that is not the fans as much as we would like it to be.

Patiently waiting and blogging until the end of the month.

Go Blue!

Joined: 10/03/2009

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sierragold

December 15th, 2014 at 12:18 PM ^

I'm not doubtful about Harbaugh ending up in AA as the next coach, but it would  be nice this afternoon in his presser (3:00 p.m. eastern time) if he would throw on a Michigan hat so that all of the M fans aren't looking for hand signals and watching in great intesity for some kind of a signal that he is coming home to AA.

I think the Michigan hat would do it!

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Artichokes Anonymous

December 15th, 2014 at 12:20 PM ^

I think it's natural for JH to take the time he needs to make an informed decision. With recruiting dead period I don't think that speeds up his personal timeline. Also, whether he's hired today or the first week of January, I'd imagine he would feel confident in his ability to salvage a solid recruiting class.

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GoWings2008

December 15th, 2014 at 12:24 PM ^

that the playoff picture for him has been in his head for a while.  "what happens if THIS happens, or THAT happens."  I guarantee he has an idea of a timeline, and SF missing the playoffs yesterday played into that. 

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Hannibal.

December 15th, 2014 at 12:36 PM ^

Not if he leaves amicably from a team that is going to fire him anyways.

There's no logical reason for him to finish the season if San Fran wants him gone.  None.  It's in their best interest for him to walk out the door ASAP without paying him any money, and it's in his best interest to get into the Michigan job if he wants to come.  If he isn't in Ann Arbor by the end of this week, then that tells me that he either doesn't want the Michigan job, or San Fran doesn't really want to let him go.  Either reason would be bad. 

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Ray

December 15th, 2014 at 12:36 PM ^

Unless we've given him an ultimatim prior to the end of the month (and the rumor mill says that date is Dec 31), I see him finishing out the year with the Niners.  He has no incentive to do otherwise.

The timing works pretty well for a Plan A, B and C, as the others we keep hearing about (Stoops, Miles) would be in good post-season position if the deal with Harbaugh falls through.  And having it appear likely that we'll get Plan A should minimize the risk that the ADs at the other schools give Plan B and C contract extensions, as happened with Miles in 2007.  So far, I like how this is playing out.

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Ray

December 15th, 2014 at 1:08 PM ^

Binding the assistants makes it harder for Miles to leave and it's something they can do without extending his agreement. It also ensures some continuity in the staff if he does get out of Dodge. 

Of course, if he does leave, it makes it much harder for his replacement to bring his own guys in.  So it has some potential downside to them.  I guess it's a good strategy if they see Miles as a kind of medium flight risk. 

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double blue

December 15th, 2014 at 12:36 PM ^

He does not have to "freeze" out any of the competition.   There is no competition when it comes to him. If he wants it it is his. This is not board speculation any longer.  It may not give Michgian any leverage, but we passed that point when we dropped a game to Rutgers and solidified it with a loss to Maryland.   If Miles, Stoops, Mora and Mullen are truly next up then we don't have to worry about timing as I don't see them going anywhere else, but potentially to Ann Arbor (if there).   All the jobs are taken- we are last and best on the board.  Rodeo up, it's going to be fun.

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cigol

December 15th, 2014 at 12:38 PM ^

We can only be sure of 1 of 3 things:

1) Harbaugh is positively interested.  Given that he loves his alma mater and seems like a really solid, principled dude (see family trips to Africa to build homes), he would not be damagingly delaying Michigan's process by stringing them along, unless....

2) Harbaugh is a dick.  Given that he knows that every Michigan fan is yearning for him, making every single other coach an initially disappointing fallback option to the base, he'd be a real dick to not definitely communicate that he is not interested.  If he has and we are not aware of that, then....

3) Hackett is a train wreck.  Given that we all want Harbaugh as our coach more than Kate Upton as our wife, it would be a major disservice to the future coach if Hacket did not publicly communicate that we are not looking at Harbaugh. The longer we have to digest that before the new coach is brought in, the better that will be for everybody.

I presume that everyone is competent and principled, so #1 seems by far the most likely.

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michelin

December 15th, 2014 at 1:08 PM ^

Harbaugh's reputation now is excellent.  But that might not be the case if this year’s missed playoffs and ownership conflicts are followed by a few more bad years at a historically bad team under an even flakier owner. 

If Oakland offered Harbaugh both the GM and coach positions, he might think that would ensure a level of success comparable to Pete Carroll's in Seattle.  But mere control often offers no more than an illusion of future success.  Also, Carroll inherited a much different team at Seattle than Harbaugh would at Oakland.   This will be the 12th straight year the Raiders have missed the playoffs, during which time they averaged 4.5 wins per year.  By contrast, prior to Carroll at Seattle, the Seahawks had gone to the playoffs 5 out of 7 years.  Also, while Oakland still is owned by the long-failing Davis family, Seattle is owned by the bright co-founder of Microsoft.

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