CBS Bracketology updated. Seeding outlook
Cbssports.com's Jerry Palm posted an updated bracketology this morning. Similar to what we've been seeing from other sites, such as espn earlier this week, Michigan is still a 3 seed.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
I think it's safe to say that Michigan's win this past Tuesday does put us at a firm 3 seed.
So now we have 3 regular season games left: vs Purdue, at Illi, and at Penn St. We should win all 3, but we will probably win at least 2 out of 3. That puts Michigan at 23-8. We get a bye in the conference tourney either way. We SHOULD win the first game (second round) which puts Michigan in the semi-finals. We do all that and finish 24-9. I say that puts Michigan at a 3 seed still, which would be great.
How to go to a 2 seed: go 3-0 to finish season (easily possible) and then go to the conference tourney finals. That would put us at 26-8 ….what do you think,..you think that would be enough to get to a 2 seed…or would we need to be co-conference regular season champs also (and also win the conference tourney)?
We obviously can still drop to a 4 or 5 seed by losing another regular season game and losing in the first game (second round) of the conference tourney (possible). And we could drop to a 6-7 seed by completely stumbling.
February 24th, 2012 at 11:42 AM ^
February 24th, 2012 at 11:51 AM ^
Michigan matches up better with Kansas and Duke compared to other #1 and #2 seeds like Kentucky, 'Cuse, and UNC. I still think UNC eventually gets the number 1 seed by winning the ACC tournament. But that would be great if UNC was put in the same region as MSU (imo).
February 24th, 2012 at 11:51 AM ^
I wonder if they're a team that Michigan could frustrate by forcing them to play a half-court game.
February 24th, 2012 at 12:48 PM ^
I don't know man. I feel like Anthony Davis would completely block out any attempted points in the paint and get Morgan in foul trouble quickly (something that happens often anyway). I also think their guards would just be too athletic and quick for us. Of course we never really know with this team. They almost always keep the game close, no matter who they play.
February 24th, 2012 at 12:56 PM ^
As I said, I've never really paid full attention to a UK game this year. One of my hopes would be that Michigan's perimeter-oriented offense would neutralize Davis to some extent, but could easily be wishful thinking and/or not enough to win the game.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:51 PM ^
The only way we beat UK is if we take 30 3's and hit at least half of them.
...and NEVER count on making shots when you're playing in a tournament.
Give me this bracket and I see us in the Sweet 16 easy with a chance, a legit chance to win the whole region.
I'll be honest, don't want to play UK, Syracuse or UNC (unless it was a Final 4). Everyone else, bring it.
Another thought...we may be better off with a 3-seed in the Midwest vs. a 2-seed in the West.
We're at a point now where it's all about matchups. We're pretty locked in to a #2-#6 seed...at this point is about who do we match up best with.
I don't want to play ANY team that presses, unless it's '11 Tennessee and they can't shoot for shit.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:31 PM ^
Teams with elite power forwards give us fits. JoMo can handle most fives, but neither Smot nor Novak can contain Thomas Robinson. And Kansas would play ball denial on the perimeter and stay on shooters helpside on ballscreens and just let Tyler Withey clean up around the basket. Outside of Kentucky, Kansas might be the worst matchup of anybody in the country for Michigan.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:51 PM ^
I would honestly rather play Kentucky than Duke.
It seems like the past few years we struggle against good teams that play within a system and are well coached. We tend to excel against good teams who are athletic but lacking in basketball IQ. I think we could frustrate a lot of Kentucky's young players into making mistakes. I think we'd have a much harder time doing that against Duke.
February 24th, 2012 at 11:44 AM ^
Looks highly probable, don't see Burke allowing any collapse, if THJ and Smot can step up a two is possible, would need some upset help along the way.
February 24th, 2012 at 11:51 AM ^
Don't think we can get a 2 seed without winning the Big Ten (or co-champs) and Big Ten Tourney. OSU and MSU will both be above us (at least in terms of potential seed- OSU may be baove us while technically lower in Big Ten standings)- and no way Big Ten gets 3 top 2-seeds- so we'd need to win Big-Ten and have OSU slip to a 3-seed in my estimation.
February 24th, 2012 at 2:18 PM ^
There might be a chance that we can leapfrog OSU. The committee rewards teams that finish strongly, and penalizes teams that falter down the stretch.
February 24th, 2012 at 11:56 AM ^
The Akron fighting bobcats. I like it.
February 24th, 2012 at 12:25 PM ^
I apologize to the OP in advance for digressing here, but can someone explain to me which is the Big Ten Championship? The regular season, or the tourney? Because I read we need to win 3 and MSU lose 1, to win the Big Ten.. but if there is a tourney, then to me, that winner is the champion. I'm not being facetious here, and have been out of the loop for awhile with this. Thanks.
February 24th, 2012 at 12:39 PM ^
The winner(s) of the regular season is/are the Big Ten champion(s). The winner of the tournament is the Big Ten Tournament champion.
February 24th, 2012 at 12:41 PM ^
Both.
February 24th, 2012 at 12:45 PM ^
CAVEAT: I could be wrong, that is merely how I've always understood the two
February 24th, 2012 at 2:16 PM ^
The regular-season champ is the official champ. The only thing the BTT does is determine the automatic NCAA bid.
February 24th, 2012 at 4:24 PM ^
As far as the NCAA tournament is concerned, you win your conference tournament, then you are automatically in. As others have pointed out, there is some prestige to winning the regular season conference championship as well. (Or sharing it). However, there is one other important thing that goes along with winning the regular season conference championship. It means that you _will_ play in the post season. The NIT has guaranteed that all regular season conference champs not in the NCAA tournament will play in the NIT. Obviously this is a bigger deal to teams in one-bid leagues and not a huge factor in the B1G, but that reward is there also.
February 24th, 2012 at 12:25 PM ^
The real question is if we win out and win the B1G tourney do we get a 1 seed? I think it would be hard to not give the team that won the reg season and tournament championship of the best conference in the country a 1 seed. This is of course assuming state loses to ohio.
February 24th, 2012 at 12:33 PM ^
Michigan has no shot at a one seed and little to no shot at a 2 seed.
I think 6 teams are locks to be seeded higher than Michigan:
Kentucky
Syracuse
Missouri
Kansas
Duke
North Carolina
Then in the BIG, MSU and OSU both have better resumes than Michigan, better records and thought to be better teams by most analysts
February 24th, 2012 at 12:50 PM ^
If Iowa would have played better earlier in the season, they'd probably be in right now. I don't really see them having a chance getting in, despite their numerous key wins.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:06 PM ^
They definitely can't lose another regular season game, and they might have to make the BTT finals if they don't win it. They have four losses outside the RPI top 100, which really hurts. Figure that each one of those cancels out a top-30 win, and that basically wipes out any justification for putting them in. Winning out only means a win over a zombie Illinois, bad Nebraska, and bubble NW, which won't add much to the profile. They need to make a huge run, probably beating two of the top 3 B1G teams.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:18 PM ^
Iowa's several errible loses early in the season, pathetic RPI, and weak-ass SOS will preclude them from an at-large bid unless maybe they make it to the tournament final, but I highly doubt it. They won't have any home crowd advantage in Indy -- THAT is what has propelled them to their big wins (aside from Wisconsin at Kohl Center which I will admit is a really good win).
February 24th, 2012 at 1:27 PM ^
I say they make it. C'mon Iowa.
They do have some really bad losses but a couple of their non conference losses were to teams that will make the tourney; Iowa State and Creighton. A third loss was to Clemson which is a bubble team.
Northern Iowa and Campbell are a little tougher to rationalize, but both are over 500 for the year, so that's something...
February 24th, 2012 at 1:42 PM ^
...into the tournament. I think they'd probably have to knock off Michigan, OSU, or MSU in the Big Ten tournament to do it, though.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:47 PM ^
I admire your desire to root for Iowa, but I just don't see it. Clemson has an even worse RPI than Iowa and may indeed be a bubble team -- for the NIT that is. The Tigers are 14-13 (6-7) with an RPI of 147.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:44 PM ^
Iowa's RPI is 139 right now (not sure if that is updated with the Wisconsin win last night). They'd need to get that up to 70ish (I think 75 is the worst to ever make it) to have a real shot. Not sure if wins over ILL, Neb, and NW plus a couple BTT wins will do that.
Edit: Not updated for yesterday's win, but the worst RPI in the Big Ten as of yesterday behind Penn St and Nebraska.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:50 PM ^
Warren Nolan has Iowa with an RPI of 126. They need to jump about 50 some spots to even have a prayer.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:59 PM ^
On the flip side, when is the last time a team with a 500 record in the Big Ten didn't make the tournament. I will try to look it up, but it might be too difficult
February 24th, 2012 at 2:24 PM ^
PSU went 10-8 in 2009 and did not get in.
February 24th, 2012 at 2:29 PM ^
What a rip. They ended up winning the NIT too, finishing 27-11. PSU also finished ahead of M and Minnesota in 2009, two teams invited to the NCAA Tournament, but PSU still was denied. Poor things.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%9309_Big_Ten_Conference_men%27s_basketball_season
February 24th, 2012 at 4:04 PM ^
But PSU played a very weak schedule that year (both in and outside of conference), as Iowa has. Iowa's gotten the easiest possible schedule: they play one game apiece against UM, MSU and OSU - and only one of those three was on the road.
February 24th, 2012 at 4:45 PM ^
I looked it up and PSU only played two non-conf games against RPI top-100 teams, Rhode Island and Temple. They lost both games. Nearly every other non-conf game was against a team north of 200.
Pretty weak resume. Iowa's, as you said, is weak as well.
February 24th, 2012 at 12:58 PM ^
Regardless of seed, I would like for UM to get high enough on the s-curve to get sent to Columbus.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:14 PM ^
They'd probably have to finish ahead of Marquette on the s-curve. Marquette is the highest 3 seed now, probably, and Columbus is the closest site to them. I'd be ok with Louisville or Pittsburgh too.
February 24th, 2012 at 3:03 PM ^
They'll never get Pittsburgh. I think OSU and Syracuse have a hold on that.
February 24th, 2012 at 4:33 PM ^
We're in Pittsburgh in Lunardi's latest bracket, with OSU going to Louisville.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:07 PM ^
It will be close but they(Iowa) have a good shot if they win 2 of 3. Michigan had a horrible streak in January of 2011, losing 6 in a row at one point, including 3 at Crisler. M ended making the tournament pretty easily considering they had 13 losses on Selection Sunday. Iowa gets to 18-15 and I think they are in. As of now they are 15-13
| 15 | at Wisconsin | January 5, 2011 | Kohl Center, Madison, Wis. | L-50-66 | 17,230 | |
| 16 | Kansas | January 9, 2011 | Crisler Arena, Ann Arbor, MI | L-60-67 | 12,476 | |
| 17 | Ohio State | January 12, 2011 | Crisler Arena, Ann Arbor, MI | L-64-68 | 11,994 | |
| 18 | at Indiana | January 15, 2011 | Assembly Hall - Bloomington, Ind. | L-61-80 | 17,168 | |
| 19 | at Northwestern | January 18, 2011 | Evanston, Ill. (Welsh-Ryan Arena) | L-60-74 | 5,192 | |
| 20 | Minnesota | January 22, 2011 | Crisler Arena, Ann Arbor, MI | L-64-69 | 12,378 |
February 24th, 2012 at 1:16 PM ^
Iowa's losses are terrible. Michigan I think only had one "bad" (outside the RPI top 100) loss last year, IIRC. Iowa had four. I think they'd be a dangerous team, but Northwestern is on the bubble now and I think they are much more deserving than Iowa.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:30 PM ^
I say the NCAA proclaims; whoever wins the Iowa vs Northwestern game to end the BIG season is in.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:56 PM ^
I know it's not the end-all, but it also means a lot when the team in question is in triple digits.
February 24th, 2012 at 5:13 PM ^
Iowa isn't getting into the tourney unless they win the Big Ten Tourney. They are playing well right now though and Fran McCaffery has done a great job at Iowa. Carver Hawkeye is such a tough place to play and it is a shame Iowa struggled terribly out of conference. They are going to be a tough out in the BTT and I really hope we don't play them or NW in our first game of the tourney.
February 24th, 2012 at 6:16 PM ^
Facts be damned, I'm sticking with Iowa getting in, and will laugh at all y'all when they do.
As far as M in the BTT, doesn't really matter much what they do, they've made a nice comfy bed for themselves. Hopefully Novak doesn't allow them to rest on their laurels. Get some fire Novak, keep these guys focused.
February 24th, 2012 at 8:48 PM ^
Iowa rode their home crowd and Matt Gatens' ridiculous (and unsustainable) shooting to wins over IU and Wisconsin at Carver-Hawkeye. I don't see them continuing that trend on a neutral site in Indy, where I doubt there will be many Hawkeye fans in attendance.
Gatens made heat-check after heat-check in that Wisconsin game. I wouldn't be surprised to see them exit on the first day.