Caris could be 5th 1st rounder in 3 years.

Submitted by MichiganMan14 on
Caris has ranged from #15-22 in the latest mock drafts. His foot injury is 10-11 weeks from being healed and that puts him healthy right around pre-draft workout time. I hate to think of losing another early entree this season but it's become the reality of Michigan Basketball. We simply lose our kids early. If Caris goes #15 that will put him in line to make $1.6 million per year. That is a lot of money and hard to imagine him turning that down. There is an argument that he could return and become a sure top 10 pick but is it worth the risk of injury to return? I sure wish he would return but common sense tells me to prepare for another early exit. I'm not ready to call our situation of early entrees a "problem" but we simply don't recruit well enough to lose kids at the rate we do. Our attrition is bonkers and we do need to address this. I wish godspeed to Caris and hope he makes the best decision when the time comes.

pkatz

January 27th, 2015 at 1:19 PM ^

Probably an unpopular POV, but have our early entrees really hit the ball out of the park (not the most appropriate metaphor)? THJr seems to be serviceable on the God-awful Knicks, but who else? Trey seems to be losing time to Exum, Nik and GR3 get no time and Mitch is still hurt.

ijohnb

January 27th, 2015 at 1:53 PM ^

perplexed by Burke.  He was very close to literally unstoppable in 2013 and the tournament, specifically.  To me, he looked like an NBA ready point guard if I had ever saw one.  I thought he would be an all-star within 3 years when he left.

In reply to by ijohnb

VectorVictor05

January 27th, 2015 at 2:26 PM ^

Not that he was slow in college, but relative to ultra quick NBA competition he is slow for his position. Not so slow that he won't carve out a role, but too slow to be a top half of the league starting PG.

In reply to by ijohnb

Marley Nowell

January 27th, 2015 at 2:18 PM ^

Point Guard might be the deepest position in the NBA. Not sure if its his size or release or something else but his 3 point shooting just hasn't been there in the NBA. if he could hit 35% 3PA consistently he would defintely be a starter.

In reply to by ijohnb

althegreat23

January 27th, 2015 at 2:23 PM ^

This is also the golden age for point guards. Trey is a solid player but he is probably not a top 20 player at his position. In the West alone, he has to go against guys like CP3, Steph Curry, Russel Westbrook, Damian Lilliard, Mike Conley etc.

MGoChippewa

January 27th, 2015 at 1:30 PM ^

you're spot on.  Even THJ is down a bit this year; not even shooting 40% from the field.  Stauskas doesn't get minutes because he hasn't been very good and Burke is losing his time to Exum for the same reason.  It's certainly too early to say they're all busts, but it isn't looking good at the moment.  Rookies generally struggle to hit outside shots, so I think Nik has a decent chance of bouncing back down the road.  I think Mitch will be a decent to good NBA player if he ever stays healthy long enough to prove it.

Lucky Socks

January 27th, 2015 at 2:04 PM ^

Trey Burke and Nik Stauskas were overdrafted.  As lottery picks, one might expect them to be superstars.  They won't be.  But I'll bet on both becoming valuable members of NBA teams throughout their careers.  Jameer Nelson for Trey Burke, and JJ Redick for Nik Stauskas (I know, I know).  And those are both fine NBA careers.  

Meanwhile Hardaway was drafted mid-20s and seems like he's doing great when you compare to the other two.  He'll have a similar career to Burke and Nik, but get more credit because he doesn't have the "Lottery" pick tag.  

McGary is a wildcard.  If he's healthy I think the sky is the limit, Marc Gasol style.  But these injuries keep happening.  

GRIII knew the risk he was taking.  He made an NBA roster and earned a guaranteed contact.  I don't think he expected 20 mpg as a rookie.  But he is practicing with an NBA team and coaches, and working on his game every day.  It's way to early to judge whether he left "too soon," because I think his career is probably on par with any reasonable expectation so far.

Darius Morris is on an NBA roster for the 4th consecutive season.  He didn't leave "too early," because it's tough to argue that he would have developed more in school than he would have playing basketball 24/7 with NBA tutors.  I think he just is what he is, and NBA journeyman at best.  As a second round pick he would have been easy to just discard his contact.  But he's still around, and he's a millionaire.  

Manny Harris did leave too early.  Guy played in the NBA, and played decently.  But he can't seem to find a job in the league for whatever reason.  A successful senior season could have at least given him a chance with a different path.  

ijohnb

January 27th, 2015 at 2:20 PM ^

never saw JJ Redick just load up and dunk on somebody's head when he was in college though.  He was never the "token white guy" who could shoot but had no athleticism, but neither did he go baseline, dunk on some fool, kick the ball on his way down to draw a delay of game and then stare at the crowd when he finally landed.  That was the difference I saw between Stauskus and Redick, Nik has an explosiveness that Redick did not.  I don't think we have enough of a sample size to declare Stauskus "serviceable but not special" yet.  I think he probably has another gear that we will see in due course.  He is a really cerebral player that stays one step ahead of the defense and I believe he will make the adjustment with time.  I just think the NBA is a learning process to him just as his first year at Michigan was.

Gentleman Squirrels

January 27th, 2015 at 1:22 PM ^

I just saw Derrick Walton in the union and he was riding one of those scooters on which you rest your knee on when you're injured. I didn't see this posted before, but is he not going to be in the lineup for next week?

gwkrlghl

January 27th, 2015 at 1:25 PM ^

Look back at that title game team from just 2 years ago. Your top 6 are probably going to consist of five 1st rounders and a 2nd rounder. It's bonkers. Especially considering where Michigan basketball was for the decade before that

ijohnb

January 27th, 2015 at 1:50 PM ^

think he would be a sure Top 10 pick if he came back.  I think he should go, ASAP.  I don't think this year did a lot for his stock before the injury and I don't think he should risk re-injury.  I think it is time for Caris to make the move after this season.

Desmondo

January 27th, 2015 at 3:16 PM ^

Mock drafts tend to be a lagging indicator.  Expect to see his stock drop in the coming weeks.  Now, he may still get a 1st round grade (in which case he should jump), but I wouldn't make any conclusions based on what you're seeing now.

goblue16

January 27th, 2015 at 3:18 PM ^

I don't see anyway Caris is a legit 1st round pick even before he got injured he wasn't playing at a very high level. Come back next year and improve your game don't end up like Manny

Michigan4Life

January 27th, 2015 at 4:32 PM ^

he's 6'7" SG who can shoot, handle and pass. He's very good at iso, catch and shoot and has size advantage over most SG.  He's 20 and still has room to grow which means he still has untapped potential to be an even better player down the road.  He also has the athleticism to be an elite defensive stopper at SG.

Throw in the fact that SG is weak overall in the NBA and players like Caris don't grow on trees. That's why he's considered to be a 1st round pick.

CoachBP6

January 27th, 2015 at 7:47 PM ^

You would think with the number of first round selections, that coach B would be killing it with big time recruits. For whatever reason we tend to miss out. With the awesome player development here, I can't help but wonder how Nasty we would be with some big time recruits.