The Calm after the Storm. (MBB 2015/2016 Outlook)

Submitted by MichiganMan14 on

Truly torn as a fan tonight.  I'm hurting for selfish fan based reasons as are many of you, fellow comrades of maize and blue.   On the other hand I'm truly happy for both Nik and GR3 for all that they have accomplished and the awesome opportunities that await them.  We make MILLIONAIRES in Ann Arbor.  Nik Stauskas and GR3 meant a whole lot to Michigan and their departure will be felt extensively.  Both represented Michigan on and off the court with class and dignity. Both brought excitement and "Swag" to the program and there are countless highlights and Gifs to carry on their respective memories in the Michigan uniform. 

The pressing matter is where do we go from here.  We are a championship level program that happens to have suffered 4 early NBA departures in 2 years.  That is extreme.  We don't exactly rack up All-American talent every year in the recruiting ranks so once again, Beilein and his staff with have to work wonders.  Let's take a peek at what John the Wizard will likely be working with.   

D. Walton (so)   - S. Albreicht (jr)      

C. Levert (Jr.)   -    2014 late addition (will elaborate later)

Z. Irvin (so.)     -     K. Chatman (fr)

M. Donnal (fr)   -   M. Beifeldt  (Jr.)   / DJ.  Wilson (fr).....possible shirt.

M. McGary (jr)   -   R. Doyle   (Fr)  

 

The obvious caveat is big #4.....I'm expressing optimism here and leaning him as not only a member of the 2014/2015 Wolverines.....but as the Enforcer and heart and soul.  McGary will move mountains as a Wolverine next year.  I think he knows this.  

Caris will obviously be the primary scoring option and he will make a run at CPOY hands down.  I genuinely see a fiery leader in Zak Irvin and if the Ohio....Sparty and Nebrasketball road games are proper indicators from last year....D. Walton is going to be one hell of a leader and floor general.  (Spike isn't far behind)   

The intrigue of this prospective roster is M. Donnal.  I'm buying the hype.  I've seen videos of his developing athleticism and hear nothing but promise and certification of his ability to absolutely own the "Stretch 4" role.  If this all holds.....look out.  Donnal will be a bigger body and allow us to play big without sacrificing shooting.  Imagine two 6ft10's on the floor at the same time.....now get used to it and add the fact that both will be highly skilled with range.  Yes please.  

The BenchMob will be led by Spike, Kam and Max.  Spike will only add to his legend and possibly be the best backup point in the B1G.   Max will be an improved physical presence with knowledge of the system and the stones to get his hands dirty for Michigan.  You need guys like Max.  Now enter Kam Chatman.  This kid is a Top 30 talent being coached by a Top 5 coaching staff.  Kam will be Zak Irvin at minimum and likely a more rounded offensive player.  I fully expect 6-9ppg from Kam next season and he will etch out a significant role in year 1.  Ricky Doyle is rumored to be a legitimate 6ft10  and 235lbs.  He will have a summer overseas with Michigan to get a jump and Mitch McGary to learn from.  Doyle will play meaningful minutes and surprise some of you.  

DJ. Wilson is a complete wild card.  He is very thin.....around 200lbs at 6 ft 9.  If he can make some gains in his first 4 months in Ann Arbor he could be a 2013 Caris Levert on steroids.  Excellent skill level and uber athletic.  Might be the best athletic shot blocker in years to find his way to AA.  After analyzing this kid's film I really think he might have NBA lottery written all over him.  Kids like DJ Wilson are what makes John Beilein a top 5 coach.  He is going to be a diamond and he ain't all that rough.  The fact that Beilein was on this kid early and snatched him up is pure genius.  Just bear witness to what this kid becomes.  He will show flashes of this in 2014/2015 if given the opportunity.  

 

 

THE UNKNOWN........late 2014 additions.  Yes please!  

Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahkman 6 ft 4 Guard

Averaged 24 ppg this past season.  He is a decent shooter and solid defender. He has a loose handle but has above average bounce and athleticism.  He will be 20 in September as a freshman and will be physically ready to compete.  

 

Tavarius Shine  6 ft 6 185lbs

Not much to add here yet.  Ideal height and has scoring ability.  

 

Ryan Taylor  6 ft 6 Wing

Scored 20ppg last year.  Another player who relished the defensive end of the floor.  Limited offensive analysis on him as of yet but he is an Indiana kid that knows all of our Indiana kids.  Ohio is his biggest offer thus far and he has Michigan at the top of his list. If we offer....he will be a Wolverine.  

 

Aubrey Dawkins  6 ft 4 180 lbs

Dynamic and Explosive athlete.  I would venture to say that Aubrey is close to GR3 level athleticism.   He is the son of Johnny Dawkins.  You know what that means given our trend of NBA dads lol.   Aubrey is the most "sure thing" out of these prospects and he will be good for a few posters next year.  If he develops his shooting, he could be a major coup.    Aubrey is going to be a priority and he is visiting Michigan in a week or so.  He would be a HUGE commitment.  

 

Class of 2015

Both Jalen Brunson and Jalen Coleman are looking more and more like the cornerstones of the 2015 recruiting class.  Matt Mcquaid of Texas is trending also.  Michigan will need to grab a B1G in the 2015 class.   Here is a way to early depth chart....with Levert and McGary continuing the underclassmen trend of NBA departures.  

D. Walton (jr)  -  Spike (Sr.)/ J. Brunson (fr)

Z. Irvin (jr)     -    J. Brunson (fr)/ J. Coleman (fr) 

K. Chatman (so)  -     2014 Late addition (hopefully Dawkins) or Mcquaid

D. Wilson (Fr/so)  -   2015 Big

M. Donnal  (So)   -  R. Doyle (so)  

 

This team could be better than any we have seen thus far.  Irvin/Chatman would be a NIGHTMARE.  Walton will the B1G's best pg by then.  Wilson will be blossoming by now.  Donnal will be Frank Kaminsky 2.0 with more hops and we will have a BanGeR in Doyle to go with a solid 2015 front court recruit.  This team will feature highly touted guards in Jalen Brunson and Jalen Coleman which will be quite the bench luxury.  Spike if he is still here will be the best backup PG maybe inthe nation.  This is a monster team right here.  

 

Sorry for the lengthy post fellas.  Congratulations Nik and GR3!   You've both left this program better than you found it and in great hands.  Our future is bright as **** guys.  2015 will be another great year of Michigan Basketball and a B1G banner is totally in play!  

 

DingoBlue

April 16th, 2014 at 3:26 AM ^

then Michigan has all the pieces to make another run on paper.  I am actually very enticed with the PF spot.  Even if Mitch comes back, I still anticipate Donnal to be the primary backup at the 5 and play some 4 in spot time.  I think D.J. Wilson has all the tools to be Michigan's 4 man of the future if his body is ready in the fall.  That's a big if, but I think Wilson has the combination of size, shooting, and athleticism (albeit not as much as GRIII) to play the 4 very efficiently in Michigan's system.

I'll also say that while I agree Bielfeldt can play the four, we have thus far not seen enough from him to make me confident with playing him there over Chatman/Wilson/Irvin/Donnal.  The opportunity is there for him, I hope he seizes it and is able to make an impact.

Lucky Socks

April 16th, 2014 at 8:05 AM ^

Max is a nearly a clone of JMo. Opportunity creates players. JMo had tons of experience. Why can't Max be a JMo defensive quarterback, finisher, and box out champ? He's actually been solid on D and on the glass in limited chances. Just needs to stop chucking threes.

Lucky Socks

April 16th, 2014 at 9:37 AM ^

What I alluded to is that opportunity brings out the best in players. Horford cited that, and it's usually true. JMo was described as awful during his redshirt year. In three years you haven't seen anything from Max because you haven't seen much of Max. And I'll also challenge you by saying that he hasn't been that bad in his emergency minutes.



I ask why he can't produce with the opportunity. You say its because he hasn't produced without the opportunity. I'm not convinced. I'm also an optimist, so there's that.

Lucky Socks

April 16th, 2014 at 9:42 AM ^

Maybe not, but those are assumptions based on sample size.



Feel - 2-4 minute spurts with a group of players he rarely practices with might have something to do with that.



Foot Speed and lateral quickness - Maybe not, but was JMo ever above average here? Strength and anticipation were his strengths. He was a below the rim guy who understood leverage and defensive angles. Go back up to feel for my opinion on why we can't rule out Max improving there.

Lucky Socks

April 16th, 2014 at 10:32 AM ^

I agree. It's for the sake of making a point. But as a society we tend to rate everybody above average. That's statistically impossible. JMo was no Petway with the leap, and his athleticism improved dramatically with hard work in the weight room and by doing cardio. That's a fact. He didn't come to Michigan as the athlete he left as.



Again, why not Max? And for the record in not trying to say Max will become as good as JMo. I'm not even trying to say he'll be the a clone in terms of style. But there have been players who have had success being below the rim guys, smart, stocky, and strong. JMo is just the most convenient comparison with that type of player.

Magnus

April 16th, 2014 at 10:26 AM ^

I think Morgan was more athletic than some of the 6'10" or 6'11" centers he got matched up against. That's why he was a tough cover on pick-and-rolls and why he was able to get position so well against them defensively. Bielfeldt might be a decent rebounder because he seems to have good strength, but I don't think he's going to shoot 70% (or whatever Morgan shot), he's not going to be as good of a defender, and he won't be a great finisher that defenders have to worry about consistently. I believe the term for Bielfeldt in modern internet speak is "JAG" - just a guy.

Lucky Socks

April 16th, 2014 at 11:37 AM ^

There's plenty of room in college hoops for "guys."  Maybe I came off a little too optimistic in my original post, but I want to say that I think Max has a shot at becoming a "guy," and I'd love that.  Consistently 5-15 minutes a game.  He doesn't have to be Jordan Morgan, but he might become a guy we can count on to give us solid minutes every game (as opposed to emergency Max).  

He's got the body to rebound, set good screens, an IQ that suggests he can master defensive positioning, and presumably a better shooter than Morgan (the coaches obviously told him he can shoot threes, even if he hasn't made many).  The sample size isn't enough for me to say he's a career scout teamer yet.  

So I don't really disagree with you.  He won't shoot 70%.  But maybe he can hit enough long 2s or 3s to stretch the defense a bit.  And he might not have the quickness or athleticism, but in college hoops you can become a pretty good defender with IQ and hustle (pre-charge rule?).  At the very least, could be become a Zack Novak at power forward?   

Not calling a LeVert-type improvement for him, but I'll "hold" my stock on Max for now.  I'd prefer to think he's worth something if Mitch makes the jump. 

 

michclub19

April 16th, 2014 at 12:29 PM ^

The reason everyone is opposing your point is most of us observers do not see a future J-mo when Max takes the court.  I think every player on the roster, albeit Donnal with his redshirt, was given the opportunity for PT once McGary couldn't go.  The fact is, after 3 years in the system Max still was behind Horford and Morgan in the rotation.  Watching games, Max doesn't seem to be as adept offensively as J-mo was.  I don't know if I've ever seen him slip a screen and throw down an easy dunk which J-mo was able to perfect, evidenced by his 70% shooting.  It just seems the offensive flow tapers when he's at the post.  It almost seems Max is unsure of himself with the ball.  I think a few minutes a game is possible, being a stragetic sub before TV timeouts to get a starter a longer break, but if Max gets above 5 minutes a game the whole offense might be losing its efficiency.

Lucky Socks

April 16th, 2014 at 12:58 PM ^

I totally understand why people are skeptical of Max.  And if you read my other responses, I'm not trying to say he'll emerge as an All-Big Ten player.  But as one final rebuttal because I've been procrastinating all day:

1)  Stuck behind Morgan and Horford:  Is that really a knock on him or his situation?  Morgan, who I've been trying to say is a better version of him with 2 years and much more game experience and Horford, who's also older, and more experience -- also taller, and bouncier which provides a different look than 2 "Morgan" types were.  Being third on the depth chart shouldn't be a predictor of success.  Cheap examples:  Brady was a benchwarmer for a while, Anibal Sanchez is the #3 starter, and Wisconsin bigs do it all the time.  

2)  Yeah, Max does get lost.  But how much of that is Max, and how much of that is Max being thrown into a game that's either A)  Already won and a glorified pick-up game, or B)  An emergency situation that calls him off the bench stone cold to play with first teamers he barely practices with.  I can't answer this question, neither can you.  I suppose only the coaches know at this point.

 

Lucky Socks

April 16th, 2014 at 11:45 AM ^

It's an appropriate beverage for summer (no football and basketball).  I'd rather look for reasons that Max can be a dark-horse contributor than spend all off-season looking at a McGary-less front court that includes almost exclusively freshmen (Donnal, Doyle, Wilson, Chatman) or guys with slim builds (welp; they're the same guys).

Ultimately we're built for guard play and we'll be fine regardless.  But it's nice to have options up front.  I like the potential of the guys we have.  But there's going to come a time where we get outmuscled, and Max is the only player we have who has girth and muscle. Doyle will, but I've learned not to count on a true freshman big as a sure thing -- especially one without that "Can't Miss" tag.  

umchicago

April 16th, 2014 at 9:39 AM ^

disagree.  that's exactly what he needs to do.  all summer.  at least 100 per day.  he needs to become a guy that hits at least 30% from out there to allow the offense to spread out properly.  if his shot doesn't improve, he will get very few minutes.

Mr. Yost

April 16th, 2014 at 8:34 AM ^

...and I agree 100%

But I still don't breathe a "sigh of relief" ONLY because I would've loved to redshirted 2 of the freshman.

Having J-Mo and even Horford had he stayed, would've be invaluable.

Max B is the wild card, if he can get good enough to truly earn significant minutes (not A LOT...I said significany, as in playing when it matters)...then this allows us to chose the better of Wilson and Doyle and the other can redshirt.

I don't think that is out of the relm of possibility, Max is certainly capable of that role.

ericcarbs

April 16th, 2014 at 8:46 AM ^

McGary hasn't announced if he is coming back or not so this post is premature

 

As for 2015 outlook, who knows who could leave and not.

McGary and LeVert are safe bets but Walton could be like Burke and improve 100fold.

Irvin could be like Nik and be Big 10 POY after a mediocre freshman year.

 

 

Raoul

April 16th, 2014 at 10:10 AM ^

Hasn't Sam Webb said Michigan has a much better chance with one than the other? I can't remember which.

Also, regardless of his age, Abdur-Rahkman won't necessarily be "physically ready to compete" this fall. Sam has compared him to pre–freshman year LeVert in terms of strength and says he would need to spend some serious time at Camp Sanderson if he ends up a Wolverine.

Evil Empire

April 16th, 2014 at 8:59 AM ^

A starting five of Walton-Irvin-LeVert-Donnal-McGary with Chatman and Spike as the first two off the bench should be very good indeed.   Walton can distribute to four reliable scorers.  Anything we get out of Wilson or Doyle will be a bonus, but I believe they'll have to play to round out the roster and as preparation for the next year.  If we can pick up Dawkins or Abdur-Rahkman, or both, that would provide some terrific scoring and athleticism off the bench.

It seems like the ideal 13-man roster composition is:

2 point guards

7 wings

4 big men (some combo of stretch-4s and post-up)

 

 

We could be very close to that next season:

 

PG: Walton, Albrecht

Wings: LeVert, Irvin, Chatman, 1-2 late adds?

Bigs: McGary, Donnal, Wilson, Doyle, Bielfeldt

 

 

 

And while anything could happen, for the first time in a while it does not appear we'll be counting on a true freshman to start.  For that to happen despite our recent attrition is remarkable.

TheThief

April 16th, 2014 at 9:02 AM ^

I trust our coaching staff as much as anyone. However, maybe we should stop referring to every unheralded  or too skinny recruit as the next Caris. Caris is his own guy. The team caught a lucky break, even they didn't think he would play his freshman year. So maybe we should stop declaring all these guys the next Levert and let them be them. They have enough on their plate.

alum96

April 16th, 2014 at 11:14 AM ^

Agree 100%.  Expectations by the fanbase are getting out of line with the 3 stars - we just sent THJ to the league, had a NPOY and had "Caris" with the last three guys who are obvious.  That said Burke was a 4 in some circles, not a 3....THJ had some nice genes, and Caris was lightning in a bottle.   Expectations that anybody we now pick up who is not top 100 is going to be a front line starter and/or NBA guy are getting a bit out of touch.  The staff is eventually going to misread someone and/or someone just won't develop.  Or some guys just hit ceilings that will have nothing to do with the staff.  

These late additions are usually there for a reason - other than Myles Turner.  Dawkins dad for exampls coaches at Stanford - where is the offer by his dad?  Stanford is a BCS program which went a few rounds in the tourney.  Where is the offer from the man who knows Dawkins better than anyone on the planet?  Same for any of these late additions.

I did a similar post to this a few days ago with only 2014 and without Mitch since it was "worst case" but not sure how the heck anyone can project 2015-2016.  We are not in front for both of those Jalens, in fact we might not be for either.   A year ago no one thought Nik was going to the league - he was a 3 year player in our minds.   A year from now who knows if Zak Irvin will be in the same boat - I think he might.  It is hard enough to project 1 year our versus 2 esp with a team full of underclassmen.