Bye Week Implications, Division Standings

Submitted by justingoblue on

Currently the division standings are as follows:

  1. MSU (2-0)
  2. Michigan (2-1)
  3. Nebraska (1-1)
  4. Iowa (1-1)
  5. Northwestern (0-2)
  6. Minnesota (0-3)

This week, MSU plays Wisconsin, Iowa plays IU, PSU is at Northwestern in cross-divisional play. As always, we want teams from our division to lose to cross-divisional opponents. Nebraska also plays Minnesota in divisional play, and we could really benefit (in the short term at minimum) from a Minnesota upset.

Realistically, it looks like Wisconsin will take down MSU, Iowa holds serve and Nebraska cruises. This will result in a four-way tie for first place at 2-1 (but with MSU holding the only tiebreaker so far).

Predicted division after this week:

  1. MSU (2-1)
  2. Michigan (2-1)
  3. Nebraska (2-1)
  4. Iowa (2-1)
  5. Northwestern (0-3)
  6. Minnesota (0-4)

At this point, we need MSU to lose one more game (IU, Minnesota or Northwestern seem to be the most helpful for us, since it doesn't guarantee a win for Iowa or Nebraska) and Michigan needs to take care of business against our remaining schedule, especially Iowa and Nebraska [obligatory OSU is a must-win here].

Possibly helpful games (cross-divisional games and winless divisional teams):

MSU: Wisconsin 10/22, Minnesota 11/5, Indiana 11/19, Northwestern 11/26

Nebraska: Minnesota 10/22, Northwestern 11/5, PSU 11/12

Iowa: Indiana 10/22, Minnesota 10/29, Purdue 11/19

BTCG Berth Tiebreakers:

  1. Conference record
  2. Head to head
  3. Divisional record
  4. BCS ranking

Tater

October 18th, 2011 at 12:04 PM ^

SOS appeared after the game when the coach bragged about "sixty minutes of unnecessary roughness" and one of the players said Russell Wilson is "gonna get hurt."

Sparty forgot the number one rule of trash-talking: don't to it to someone who can kick your ass if you make them too angry.  I"m sure they think they can back up their talk.  I'm equally sure they are going to make Wisconsin look like Alabama this week.  If they are lucky, they will stay within 41 points this time.

MGoPietrowski

October 18th, 2011 at 11:53 AM ^

It's going to be a horse race between State, Nebraska and UM. After State drops one to Wisconsin this weekend, it's all about who takes care of their business. If State wins out, it's all theirs. However (Considering if we win all of our other games), if Nebraska defeats State on the 29th, and we handle the big N, somehow, on the 19th of November, our shot at Wisconsin is still alive. I hate losing to State, but if we take a loss this year, it's better it happened last week. Now we have two weeks to rest up, a practice game against the Boilers   and then four weeks to make something special happen. Go Blue.

joeyb

October 18th, 2011 at 11:55 AM ^

I was thinking about this last night. I think the easiest way for Michigan to win the division is for MSU to lose to Wisconsin and Nebraska. Nebraska loses to Michigan and no other games.

If Michigan wins out, they have the best conference record.

If MSU loses a 3rd game, Michigan wins the head-to-head against Nebraska.

If Michigan loses 1 cross-division game, it's a 3-way tie through the first 3 tiebreakers. I'd assume that Michigan would be ranked the highest as MSU would drop from the polls after losing 2 in a row and wouldn't have any big games left to climb back up. Nebraska would have lost to us late in the season, so we'd probably be ranked ahead of them. Michigan has to beat Iowa, though.

Basically, we really have to root for Nebraska to beat MSU because that's our only chance of getting past the 2nd tiebreaker if we lose another game.

justingoblue

October 18th, 2011 at 12:05 PM ^

I'm still thinking MSU has a shot at losing three conference games. They won't be favored this week against Wisconsin, and assuming they lose probably won't be favored against Nebraska. Somehow, I still think Northwestern has a shot at beating them. They might not, but at this point maybe they could.

That leaves Iowa and Nebraska. I think both us and Nebraska will beat Iowa, and we're right where we started this year thinking that Nebraska will be a showdown game. There's still a lot of football left to be played this season.

glewe

October 18th, 2011 at 1:24 PM ^

I feel as though the Nebraska-Michigan game is gonna be incredibly interesting. We have similar style quarterbacks and so our defenses will be prepared since that's the type of offense they've been practicing against all season. It should be a fascinating game.

If you want my opinion, I say our defense holds their offense to just a few points fewer than theirs holds ours. It will be an interesting game at the very least.

Logan88

October 18th, 2011 at 12:01 PM ^

Prediction: MSU beats Wisconsin this week.

Reasoning is three fold...

  1. Wisconsin has lost the last 3 times they have played MSU in EL.
  2. Wisconsin has not yet played a true road game this season.
  3. Wisconsin has not yet played anyone with a good defense (No, Nebraska's D is not good).

Obviously, I hope I am wrong.

joeyb

October 18th, 2011 at 12:10 PM ^

Wisconsin will hold MSU to 17 points (10 based on OSU and ND + 7 for homefield). Wisconsin has only scored fewer than 48 points once this season and that was 35. If they don't score at least 30, people will really be talking about MSU having the best defense in the country.

allintime23

October 18th, 2011 at 12:14 PM ^

No way. Coach Brett circled this very game at the start of the season. It was none other than old green teeth himself and his band of church going choir boys that handed the annoited badgers there only conference loss early last year. Not to mention, cousins blows.

victors2000

October 18th, 2011 at 12:19 PM ^

1. They gotta win there sometime

2. I don't think it's fair to equate road game with loss.

3. Said Defense should be without Gholston and that will be a big loss. Well, for a play or two anyways.

I think this is the best Wisconsin team ever. Let me emphasize that, EVAR. This might be the year they get snubbed out of the NC, they are that good, IMO. I think the road graters combined with Wilson's QB'ing and running will win the day; when I think of Wisconsin, I start up hearing "Convoy" in my head...

 

 

UofM Die Hard …

October 18th, 2011 at 12:45 PM ^

I disagree.  My opinion, Wisconsin has had no one close to as talented at Russel Wilson the past 3 times in EL. He completely changes their offense, with that huge OL, solid RBs they are tough to stop....too many weapons. 

 

Yes they have not played that great of competetion but they have done what they are supposed to do by demolishing their opponents.  In addition to crushing a solid Nebraska team.  I think Wissy gets it done comfortably this Saturday and they are cemented in that National Title talk.

 

** Michigan just needs to take care of business for the rest of the schedule (which is very possible) and let chips fall as they may.  Time to get healthy and prepare for the remainder of games.

 

The Team! The Team! The Team!

 

 

 

 

saveferris

October 18th, 2011 at 12:08 PM ^

I think your analysis is overly-complicated.  We need MSU to lose to Wisconsin and lose on the road to Nebraska and for us to win out.  Do that and we're good.  If the winner of the Legends division has 2 conference losses, then that winner is probably not going to be us.

M-Wolverine

October 18th, 2011 at 12:25 PM ^

Other than you're playing for a chance to be in the title game, rather than the title; you want the team who beat you to lose one more than you do, and then win out.

Now, if you wanted to see how all the 2 way tie things would breakdown, that might be interesting...but I'm not sure when you have 2 losses you should really be planning on playing for a championship. But we're still pretty likely to have at last 2 losses. But say, Nebraska beats MSU (they have 2, one in division), we beat the Cornhuskers (which I'm not sure there's a situation where we can lose to them and have a chance; they'd have 2 and one in the division); and say we lose to Illinois (or ugh, OSU; 2 loses, one in the division). Conference record all 2 losses, head to head round-robin, division all 1 loss, then BCS, which...? MSU would have one more overall loss than the other 2, so you'd think they'd be ranked lower.  But they would have lost the longest time in the past, whereas M and UNL would have lost in November. If they're ranking 2 loss teams over 3 loss teams, it might come down to if Michigan loses to Illinois, then beats Nebraska, or Michigan beats Nebraska, then loses to Ohio, and falls behind.

But it's all speculative, but fun speculation, and in a positive thought process. The only thing that's for sure is that we can't afford to lose to division opponents Iowa and Nebraska in all likelihood.

Edit: sidenote, not worthy of it's own post- it'd be interesting if the last tiebreaker was what it was before..."been the longest since you've gone to"; it's no wonder they've changed that, because how would that work, with Nebraska? I wonder what would have happened if it had come down to that tiebreaker when PSU came into the League...say, with MSU.  Who hadn't gone to the Rose Bowl in a longer time? MSU, who hadn't been in X years...or PSU, who had NEVER been there?  And if you did that for a championship game, well, no one has been to one...but if it's since your last championship, how would that work for Nebraska? In a championship game world, you almot have to go to rankings (as long as they're not overriding head to head, like the B12 did a few years back). Funny add in- if there was no championship game, and it was just record that sent someone to the Rose Bowl, technically Nebraska has been to the Rose Bowl more recently than MSU, and they weren't even in the conference. (More recently than a lot of other teams too, but they probably don't have a real chance this year).

TruBluMich

October 18th, 2011 at 12:36 PM ^

Other night I was doing a football pool and had to pick the remainder of the Big Ten Games.  When I was done.  Michigan, MSU and NEB were all tied with two confrence losses.  MSU losses to both WISC and NEB, Michigan losses to MSU and ILL,  Nebraska losses to WISC and Michigan.



When I did the tie breaker to find out who I had to pick in the CCG, it gets all the way down to the stupid BCS stuff.  That's the wildcard because of the within 1 spot.  If there all ranked within one spot of each other then MSU gets eliminated due to overall record and Michgian goes to the CCG due to the two team tie breaker of head to head matchup.



I also did it a few other ways, what stood out is without MSU losing to NEB any ties are not going to be in our favor.

joeyb

October 18th, 2011 at 12:48 PM ^

That's not correct. If the top 2 are within 1 spot, regardless of the third one, the winner of the head-to-head between the top 2 goes. It only goes onto the next step if all of them are not ranked in the BCS, e.g. all of them are 5-3 or worse.

So, what you have to look at is who you think will be ranked the highest. It probably won't be MSU because they have the extra loss and they lose 2 games in a row, fall out of the rankings, and have no big teams to make significant strides in the poll with left on their schedule. That leaves Michigan or Nebraska. I would think that after Michigan beats Nebraska, they would be ranked higher, regardless of whether they win or lose to OSU. I think they certainly would be ahead of Nebraska if they lost to Illinois on the road then won their last 2 games. Plus, if they are within a spot of each other, Michigan would win the tiebreaker, so Nebraska would have to be 2 spots better than us, which I don't think would happen.

TruBluMich

October 18th, 2011 at 12:53 PM ^

Thanks for the explanation, wasnt real clear on that, was thinking that it meant if MIchigan was #21, NEB #22 and MSU #23 that puts them all within one spot.  But your saying that MSU would be eliminated from the tie breaker since they are 2 spots from one of the teams, in that scenario.  Makes since, glad I still got it right, would have sucked to lose half the points available for the CCG for not getting the CCG matchup right.

RagingBean

October 18th, 2011 at 12:27 PM ^

Here's another question to consider: do we want to go to the Big Ten Title Game or a BCS Bowl more? Say we go 4-1 down this stretch run (loss to Nebraska, for argument's sake). We finish 10-2, but will lose the Division race on tie-breakers, but are sitting around 10-12 in the rankings. Said Division champ (NU or MSU, whomever) then gets burb-stomped by a Wisconsin team trying to convince its way into the BCS Title Game, bumping them down to 10-3 and probably a bit further down the polls than us. Michigan would then be an enormously inviting presence for any BCS game looking for an at-large, especially if Wisconsin does go off to New Orleans and the Rose Bowl can pick a replacement team.

joeyb

October 18th, 2011 at 12:40 PM ^

This is a very, very good point. I know what Brady Hoke would say, but I'd have to say that a BCS bowl game would be better exposure for our team than a beatdown by Wisconsin. Another aspect to consider: Is a beatdown by Wisconsin and a Citrus Bowl win better or worse than a BCS Bowl loss?

justingoblue

October 18th, 2011 at 12:49 PM ^

What's the pick order for the BCS? Obviously this is impossible to know until we see the final number one and two, but I think an ACC or BE champion, BXII or Pac-12 at-large could be winnable games. That would be a team like GT, WVU, OSU (NTOSU) or the loser of Oregon-Stanford (okay that might not be too winnable this year).

M-Wolverine

October 18th, 2011 at 1:28 PM ^

Certainly seems as easy or easier than an SEC #3. But then, you're also risking getting the Alabama/LSU loser, or Oklahoma if Stanford ends up ahead of them (or if Wisconsin somehow ends up in the National Championship game, and the Rose takes us...which might be the mostly like BCS grab of a 2nd B10 team). Or Boise, which probably isn't a good match-up for us.

justingoblue

October 18th, 2011 at 1:46 PM ^

To the guys (or girls but I'll make the wild guess) it goes Sugar, Fiesta, Orange, but if one of their teams gets taken for the BCS title, they get first pick of the at-larges. Assuming the SEC gets a team in, that's at least the Sugar going first again, and possibly the Fiesta if Oklahoma is included.

M-Wolverine, I don't think any BCS matchup would actually be favorable. We'd just have a more winnable game than matching us up with Oklahoma or Boise. I think it's about a 50-50 shot we draw someone who will murder us if we're in the BCS this year, with the other 50 coming as a team that isn't favored, but probably won't lose in a bad way.

M-Wolverine

October 18th, 2011 at 2:44 PM ^

And I'm not sure how far you'd have to go down the bowl pecking order for us to be "favored". I just think that West Virginia or whoever is winning the Big East, and maybe the winner of the ACC would be easier than the grouping of South Carolina/Arkansas/Auburn in the Cap 1.

And God forbid the loser of the LSU/Alabama game doesn't make a BCS game (or that we get them in a BCS game).  I mean, we got waxed in the Gator Bowl last year.  There are no gimmes for us.

funkywolve

October 18th, 2011 at 4:17 PM ^

BCS bowl sounds great but man, UM could have a really bad match-up in the BCS bowl.  While this defense is better, I'd rather not see them have to go up against Oregon or Oklahoma/Oklahoma St and probably wouldn't want to see Andrew Luck either.  God help us if our oline and dline had to go up against LSU or Alabama.

BlueinLansing

October 18th, 2011 at 1:02 PM ^

getting a little delusional about our chances at winning the division.

 

We are clearly underdogs vs Nebraska, Ohio State and truthfully Illinois will be a very, very difficult game for this team to win on the road.

 

Iowa and Illinois have both  physically dominated us up front the last 3 years and I've seen nothing from this team to suggest that will change.  Those are swing games, we could win both or lose both.

 

We played our second good football team of the year this past weekend and if it hadn't been for some Denard heroics and down right lucky and terrible play by ND we'd by 5-2 and both our losses would have been pretty convincing losses.

 

We are not going to the BCS, end of story.

joeyb

October 18th, 2011 at 1:39 PM ^

If Nebraska doesn't beat MSU, then it wouldn't matter anyway. MSU would have 2 losses and head-to-head advantage over Michigan and Nebraska. We'd have to winout anyway.

If Nebraska does beat MSU, then Michigan has to be the favorite in a 3-way tie. The only thing  a loss to OSU would do is remove what little doubt there is that Michigan would win the division. Now, if they beat Wisconsin and lose to Nebraska and either NW or Iowa, then Michigan wins the division again.

funkywolve

October 18th, 2011 at 4:12 PM ^

If Nebraska, UM and MSU all go 6-2, UM wouldn't necessarily be the favorite.  As mentioned in the OP, the tiebreakers are head to head (I'm assuming all 3 teams would be 1-1), and then divisional record.  For UM to have a chance in that regard, they would need to beat all their division opponents and have one of the other losses be to Illinois or OSU.  That would mean UM's divisional record is 5-0 while Nebraska and MSU are 4-1.

Moonlight Graham

October 18th, 2011 at 1:41 PM ^

Way too early but also far-fetched. Illinois and Iowa will be TOUGH on the road. The most optimistic pie-in-the-sky scenario that remains based in reason and reality is that M splits Iowa and Illinois and splits the final two games to go 9-3, and that won't win the division so why are we even talking about it? The final four games are going to be absolutely brutal. And sorry to go OT but God please no more uniform shenanigans. Watching M do a "me too!" uniform switch thereby validating the home rival's stunt was embarrassing.