Any chance THJ stays his final year? I think GRIII will stay at least 1 more year. Trey has been gone for awhile.
Peppers at 10, which seems low.
Any chance THJ stays his final year? I think GRIII will stay at least 1 more year. Trey has been gone for awhile.
Up to about a month or so ago I would've said no way in Hell any of them are coming back.
But after Lewan's announcement I'm not so sure anymore.
I mean it probably also depends how close we get to winning it all. If we win the national championship I imagine both Hardaway and Robinson go (I assume Burke is gone no matter what). Especially since we are not going to win the national championship if Hardaway and Robinson don't play extremely well.
If we wall just short I can see them coming back for one last run. If Derrick Walton is up to par and everyone minus Burke comes back, then we would most definitely have a top 5 team next year as well.
The way Robinson plays against tougher competition leads me to believe he is not going anywhere.. And if his dad has any say I am pretty sure he will stay in school.. Glenn Robinson benefited from staying in school all 4 years.. i would be shocked if GR3 bolts.. especially after watching the last 2 games and how these young kids struggle against top competition
not four. Not sure they're relationship, but I'd guess GRIII doesn't need to go for the money, which at least helps.
Big Dog stayed 3, played 2, as he was a partial qualifier/ Prop 48.
Big Dog was there watching last night so one would guess their relationship is pretty good.
I agree. GRIII has most of the tools but as a projected 3 in the NBA he needs to develop a better handle (can't really drive to the rim one on one) and needs to be better at creating his own shot off the dribble. In other words, he needs to show he can score when he is option 1 or 2 (he is probably option 4 right now).
That said, I commend him for taking a lower profile on this team and doing whatever it takes to help the team win. He played pretty solid D on Thomas last night.
Timmy Jr. is a harder case - he probably would not improve his stock much by staying but he looks to be enjoying this year very much and may not need the money as much so I think there is a chance (70/30 he goes?).
You would think Hardaway would stay if he's still slotted for the second round at the end of the year. His family presumably doesn't need money ASAP.
I think he grew up a bigger NBA fan than NCAA (naturally, considering his Pops) and really dreams about playing in the league. I don't think it has to do anything with money. If he has an opportunity to be drafted in the first round, I think he's 75% gonna go chase his dream. His stock might max out after a strong Junior season (see: Durrell Summers)
GRIII (and most players these days) feel the same way about the NBA dream. But with GRIII I think he still can raise his stock by sticking around and would place his odds at 45% leaving. These last few games against top competition probably haven't helped him and I think he might want to experience college for another year or two, whereas Tim has "been there" for three years and hypothetically only needs a few classes to get his degree eventually.
his dad was broke. Didn't bother Googling it or anything, though.
It appears he was, but if he can afford to go to nearly every game, I doubt it's an issue anymore.
Michigan can comp tix to player's family for every home/away games. They are allowed up to 4 per player.
I know this because I worked in college athletics.
doesn't make that much difference in the cost of travelling to games. I remember hearing he was a scout for the Heat, so they might foot the cost for at least some of the travel involved.
I've pretty much accepted the fact that there are two chances Burke comes back next year: slim and none. I hope I am wrong and he leads Michigan to more wins but at this point, he seems NBA ready the way he has been playing.
I do think GR3 has no business leaving this year. I think it's 60/40 that THJ stays for his senior year. He's played nearly 3/4 of his eligibility and can graduate next year.
With that said about Trey, is Derrick Walton the heir apparent if Trey does declare?
It's Walton all the way if and when Burke leaves, at least barring something unexpected.
I think something unexpected is fairly likely.
I thought about starting a thread on this but so far haven't
I think, hands down, the best point guard on Michigan next season is going to be Caris LeVert. He might not get the most minutes at point guard, but when push comes to shove, Beilein is going to want the ball in LeVert's hands. Walton is going to be a true freshman and 5'10'', Spike as a soph, continues his much appreciated back up role, and Caris is going to be the most experienced and most talented of the three.
I envision Beilein's vaunted long lineup playing frequently next season
PG Levert 6'5''
SG Irvin 6'5''
SF Stauskas 6'6''
PF GRIII 6'6''
C McGary/Morgan 6'9''
I've liked what I've seen of LeVert, but I just haven't thought of him as a PG.
While I could definitely see Caris getting some play at PG, I believe the spot will be Walton's to lose. I also think you are underestimating just how talented he is. He doesn't play against the best competition (unlike Irvin at Hamilton Southeastern), but he dominates every single night. I'm not expecting him to have a Trey Burke type impact as a freshman, but I could see him putting up similar numbers to Yogi Ferrell at IU. Also, Zak Irvin is a legit 6'7", not that it is relevant to this post.
Agree wholeheartedly on GRIII. He has disappeared in our biggest games this year (8pts at OSU, 2 pts at IU) and managed 10 pts against OSU at home last night. While he may be able make highlight reel dunks against our lesser competition, he needs to learn to be more consistent. If he stays one more year and possibly two he could become a top 5 pick.
agree on GR3 as well.. disappears in big games.. way to passive on the offensive side of the ball and watching him defend Thomas made me realize he has a lot of work to do
I agree GRIII has had a poor couple games, but I think he is playing a crazy amount of mintues after the morgan injury because we can go with 2 bigs as freely. Also, I think he actually did a pretty good job against thomas, all things considered.
Thomas was 6-15 for 17 points with 3 of those gifted by stauskas on the errant pass. I thought GRIII did a pretty good job with ball denial on the last few possesions, which prevented thomas from getting the ball easily.
That being said, I think he will be best served by coming back for another year and rounding out his offensive game a little more - but I think the criticism of him is a little harsh.
I think playing the 4 has probably hurt his ballhandling/guard skills a little bit because he has probably been spending more time with off the ball stuff, etc.
Burke is quite the testament to fortitude. He's not the most physically gifted point guard around but he damn sure might be the best point guard around. 9 seems a little high but I wouldn't put it past Burke to make some GM at 9 look very smart.
Speaking of Smart, early in the season I would have taken Marcus Smart over Trey, but now I'm not so sure. Smart definitely more gifted physically but long term.... I can't really say who I think would be better between Trey and Smart.
Oladipo is the guy who will continue to move up the draft IMO. As of now, from just a pure basketball standpoint, I would take Oladipo over Trey or Smart. Right now CBS has it
Trey Burke; Sophomore; 9
Marcus Smart; Freshman; 15
Victor Oladipo; Junior; 23
Burke's gone. I've resigned that Hardaway will be gone as well after the hot start he had this season. Robinson should stay, but man, I'm thinking he might not. Scouts are really going to love his range, but he's got a lot more game to develop. He gets most of his stats while almost never dribbling, and I don't think he's going to play a position in the NBA where he can do that. Not to mention that he's really wilted in the big games. Really could use another year of seasoning.
If GR3 goes he is a reincarnation of Marvin Williams.
Except that Williams came off the bench in college, was the #2 overall pick, and is 3 inches taller.
Other than all that, the comparison is spot on.
For GRIII's sake, I hope you're wrong.
Is it that bad to be Marvin Williams? He's averaged 11.5 ppg and 5 rpg over 7 season and has made about $50 million. He gets dissed because who he was picked right in front of (CP3 and Darren Williams) but that wouldn't be a terrible outcome.
Honestly, I had no idea he was that productive. I never liked him getting drafted so high, so perhaps I just put him out of my mind.
I'm not real worried. Spike and Walton at the PG, all the big guys and Irvin is going to be another stud for us.
THJ is an interesting one. I don't know whether he goes or not.
Burke leaves, everyone else stays + the recruiting class = winning basketball games.
the same thing with UNC this season, and although 16-6, they look terrible and will finish the season with 10 to 11 losses.
Even suggesting that there are any hopes for Burke to come back seems... preposterous. He almost left last year and he looks like a lottery pick this year; he would be insane to come back. And given what he has offered the team, I would feel bad if he did. Honestly.
GR3 is athletic but really raw; I'm not seeing the lottery pick hype at all, not yet. Next year he would be a focus of the offense and would have a chance to really improve his draft position. You can never tell with guys who want to play in the NBA, but he would be much better served coming back.
THJ is an interesting case, since he might not make the first round. Typically, the second round isn't worth coming out for, and he has good parental counsel and support that could help convince him to stay for a degree and/or development. But then, a hot NCAA tournament could land him in the back of the first round, and if that's the case he may be wise to go. It's not like he'll have trouble paying for the last year of classes later on. I'm kind of hopeful that he might stay, though, despite being convinced earlier in the year that he was surely gone.
What's nice is that even if GR and THJ leave, we still have a lot of talent coming back next season. But those two would make us legitimate title threats again.
THJ isn't higher. He's been their second best player behind Burke. He's made dramatic improvements as an all around player this year. And he has great height for a shooting guard and NBA athleticism. If he slips to the second round, whoever gets him is getting a steal. Given a chance, he'll be a good to great NBA player. I think he's gone after this year.
GR III is becoming a bit of a puzzle. He has NBA athleticism and has been an extremely efficient scorer but has been MIA the last couple games. If he becomes more aggressive and reverts to earlier form, he's gone after this year. If he stays passive, he may stay another year. I've assumed he's gone before the past couple games.
Burke's more than gone.
McGary will probably play one more year and then he's gone. But if continues to improve and Michigan makes as strong showing in March, there's an outside chance he's gone after this year.
Seems that Hardaway would leave if the buzz is first round. Robinson seems too raw, and scouts will pick him game apart a bit if he went to the camps this year. Burke has been gone since the beginning of the season, though.
On most of the major sites, there seems to be relative agreement now about the approximate placeements of Burke, Robinson and Hardaway in the draft should they all go (by relative agreement, I mean +/- about five places). In order of likelihood, it would have to be Burke, Hardaway, then Robinson, I would think (agreeing with others here, basically). I look at the mock drafts though and think about the story posted yesterday about how Burke's parents convinced him to come back not to delay his dream of going pro, but so that he would more or less ensure that he would by polishing his game and developing on-court and leadership skills. It has definitely shown through and he'll be a valuable addition to any team.
If nothing else, even if it is a mock draft, Wolverines make up one-third of the Big Ten picks in Goodman's projection, so I will also take the compliment.
This is the opposite of what I'd expect as it seems to me the past 3-4 games, Burke has been forcing a lot and didn't look quite like the POY candidate he did earlier in the season [not to be confused with him looking bad, which is not the case]
based on all the NBA scout type opinions that were on here last night doggin' Burke saying his stock is going down. (sarcasm) ((well.......not really))
I'm not sure that GR3 has a position in the NBA. I really doubt he can play 4, and he hasn't really shown he can create his own shot, which would seem to be pretty important at the 3. I think coming back next year and developing that aspect of his game will be essential. Maybe his talent is enough to yield a high draft pick from a team hoping to develop him, but he seems like a big risk to me at this point.
A 3/4 hybrid who can drive to the rim on occasion, but is miscast when asked to carry an offense. Green is a pretty good defender against 3's because of his quickness and size combo. GR3 has that same quickness, but is an inch or two shorter (although wingspan his more imporant, and I don't know what GR3's is.) Still, Green's a solid, if unspectacular player, capable of the occasional highlight reel dunk, who went #5 overall as a junior. Maybe not quite what you hoped a #5 pick would be, given that #2 was Durant that year, but far from an NBA flop.
Here's the thing: Green was terrific in college. And he has been good, not great, in the NBA. The NBA is a ridiculously talented league; there are only five starting spots available per team, which means roughly 150 starting slots total for all players. Flip on an average NBA game between, say, Utah and Phoenix, and watch the doldrums of the third quarter when starters are resting. You will see guys who were stars in college, in backup roles, driving to the hoop and making great shots; other players, also stars in college, will be playing lock-down defense.
And these are all backups.
In the NBA, you have to be able to at least one or two things really well just to get on a roster. There are a hundred guys who can, on occasion, create their own shot and make fantastic plays; the best (guys like Lebron) can do that all the time in a dozen different ways. But even average bench guys can beat people off the dribble, shoot threes in cold blood, or lock down an opponent. In extremely competent fashion.
GR3 has the potential to develop the ability to be that kind of player. A backup or a contributing starter on a team that is either average or has players a lot better than him. But he does none of those things now in a way that will translate to the NBA. He is not yet a lock-down defender, or an offensive creator. He is athletic, but so is every player in the NBA.
Even guys who have dominant skills in college go nowhere in the Association. But if you can't compete well in college, you're not going to do it in the NBA. At least, not right away.
I believe that Robinson has the potential to become a strong player next year. He can improve his defense, his offense, or both; he could explode into a POY-type and take Michigan on a deep tournament run. He has that kind of potential. But he's just not there yet. And, given that we believe him to be financially secure, I think there's a good chance he sticks around to improve those weaknesses in his game.
I'm just saying I think GR3 has an NBA future, and that his game will translate. He does need to improve defensively, but is he going to get the opportunity to do that in college playing the 4? He did all right on DeShaun Thomas last night, but often he's not matched up against a player who requires the same type of defense he'd need to play in the NBA.
Green was great in college, but GR3 has been quite productive for a freshman, especially given his role. Here's a comparison of their freshman stats. They're certainly comparable.
Will GR3 be a superstar? Probably not. Nor will he be an all-star. But he certainly could play 30 minutes a game on a contender. I'm a Celtics fan, and I'd be giddy if we got GR3, even after only one year of school. He's the type of player you can plug into your rotation and not have to worry about drawing up plays for. Would it be nice if you could give him the ball at the top of the key, have him drive and then pass it to someone for a better shot? Absolutely. But low-maintenance contributors are valuable too.
I don't want my comments on GR3's current NBA prospects to be misunderstood as a general knock on his ultimate pro potential; I just don't consider him to be NBA-ready right now. Not even close.
I think that if he stays he will blossom in several of these key areas next season. The practice time, the playing time, the makeup of the team--it all lines up for him to have a fantastic season. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he spent significant time at the 3 as well, especially if THJ is gone. That will translate to his natural NBA position and involve him heavily in the offense; I think, if he stays, he will be Michigan's best offensive option.
And he will look really good to NBA scouts. Next year.
Burke and THJ are gone after this year...
GRIII after next year...
McGary after that year...
Stauskas and potentially a LeVert after their senior years.
For the record, GRIII can play SF in the league. He hasn't had to show the ability to attack the basket often, but he's done it and he's clearly athletic enough. He can knock down shots, his biggest room for improvement to play SF in the NBA will be foot speed on defense.
If GR3 had NBA-class attack the basket skills right now, he'd be doing it a lot more often. As it is, he does it less frequently than not only Burke but also Hardaway and Stauskas.
Burke and THJ are gone after this year...
Burke, OK. But you don't know what THJ will do. He probably doesn't know yet.
Think Lewan needs to talk to Burke about starting a new tradition at Michigan.
The thing people are overlooking when wondering if players should stay or go is the strength of draft classes. General consenus in the NBA prospect community is that this draft class is between mediocre and very poor, while next year's is viewed as between very good to historically good. Accordingly, someone could stay in school this year, make big strides in his game, and still be drafted lower next year than this year. From a pure "want-to-get-drafted" goal, it may make sense for any of the three to leave this year.
Burke should get a big insurance policy, and stay yet another year, to get into the top 5 of the lottery. It is not unreasonable, as his game has improved year to year.
I think people are overestimating the possibilities after this season with Trey Burke. These kids have grown tight, and everyone is eligible to come back. Not being as desperate and more sure than ever that his dream is actually in his grasp, if they don't win it he may very well come back because of the opportunity.
This isn't something just any player who is lottery/draft eligible has a chance to be a part of. If they all returned there is no doubt in my mind we are number 1 in the country next year and could possibly gash through the entire season.
Burke also has to know how huge of a jump his game has made since last season and that guys like Stauskus, GR3 and especially McGary will be 10 fold better next year. Not to mention that the system he is in will be that much more polished.
It has to be tempting. In the NBA he is just another face. In college basketball, especially on Michigan campus he is a little hero right now and its got to be a total blast.
I get it (sort of...). But the NBA draft is very fickle, and not at all to be compared with the NFL draft. If you're a first-round pick, that is a two-year guaranteed contract at the very minimum, worth between approximately $1-5 mil a year for those first years, depending where you're picked. If you're in the second round, you're likely looking at a non-guaranteed contract for the NBA minimum, with playing in Europe as your only leverage in negotations. Staying in school when you're a first-round lock, as Burke currently is, is risking financial security and a couple guaranteed years in the NBA on an injury, performance not living up to expectations, or just the whims of NBA talent evaluators. I frankly think it would be foolish for any player who has played himself from a borderline first-round talent to first-round lock to stick around an extra year in college, at least from a financial perspective and NBA career perspective. Certainly a few have done it, the UNC kids being the most notable a few years ago, but just because it sounds nice to those of us not weighing the option of living out our dream of playing in the NBA and making millions for another year of college doesn't mean it's at all a sensible idea. I don't think staying in college will be remotely tempting for him.
Efficiency wise he's good, but not dominant. He's an ok rebounder but not great. Defensively he doesn't do a ton to stand out. He profiles as the exact type of guy you love to have on a college team but probably doesn't do anything well enough to be a huge asset on the next level. Very few players get to be go to scorers in the NBA...
A bit confused as to how Burke would jump in projections after the last week or few weeks even. If anything I feel like he's been a bit exposed against some elite defenses.
Don't get me wrong, I absolutely love the guy, I think he'll make a damned good NBA player, but watching him settle for contested 3s and struggle to get into the lane these past few games wouldn't make me feel any better about his chances to be an elite NBA guard. From a scouting stand point I'd have the same, if not more, concerns as I would have had a month ago.
Firstly, Burke's been in the 15-20 range for most NBA draft boards, so #27 was a bit low. Even just moving him near where he is in everyone else's rankings would be a significant jump, so that's a large contributor.
Secondly, a few of the players in the low-teens of this board have been seeing their stock fall of late, especially the Kentucky players not named Noel, so part of the rise is also due to the regression of others around him.
Thirdly, he's looked decent against very good competition -- not dominant, but with the exception of the first Ohio game, he's been solid. If an analyst was discounting his performance to date due to having excelled against lesser teams, they may believe his performance is less of a mirage now.
That said, while I love Burke, there's no way he's getting drafted before Michael Carter Williams, unless the latter has an injury or off-court issue that raises real red flags, so I think #9 is a little high.
I'm just happy that we can have a conversation like this again.
Lets hope Arron craft doesn't sign with a team in his conference or he won't score a single point. -Dick Vitale