Brian Fremeau projections for B1G
Link ($) http://insider.espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/10851637/project…
Projects M to go 8-4 (5-3) and third in the East. Projects an 8% chance of winning the B1G and a 4% chance of finishing with 1 or fewer losses.*
Calculations are based on his drive-based FEI. He notes that last year we went 3-and-out on 38% of our possessions (92nd nationally) and had an explosive drive on only 12% of our possessions (73rd nationally).
He projects OSU to win the East with a 30% chance of winning the B1G and a 31% chance of finishing with one or fewer losses. MSU is 26/17%. Over in the West, he likes Wisconsin (17/15%) and Iowa (13/16%). But the West percentages show just how unbalanced the divisions are.
*Presented without comment as to what this record would mean for Hoke, etc. Plenty of threads on that.
April 28th, 2014 at 11:51 PM ^
Next year's schedule is a gauntlet, and to me the quality of the wins will matter much more than the number. A 9-3 with blowout losses to ND, OSU, and MSU is a lot worse than 8-4 with close losses to NW and PSU and wins over OSU and MSU. What I want to see is improvement on all sides of the ball.
Realistically, I think we'll go 8-4 with a win over ND and one of MSU/OSU and close losses to MD and PSU. The 2-1 record over our rivals and stellar improvement in our offense buys Hoke one final season to win a B1G championship.
April 29th, 2014 at 12:41 AM ^
Are we really melting down over this? Here's one of Fremeau's predictions from last year:
5. Auburn Tigers Projected finish: 6-6 Win total range: 4-8 to 8-4 Chance to win SEC: 0 percent
I like Fremeau, but I'm not going to pretend we should fire Hoke and we have no chance just because his computer says so. Let the football do the talking.
/s
well if hes right , will have a new coach after next year
April 29th, 2014 at 10:49 AM ^
I'm of the belief that Denard Robinson was the principal reason for the 11 win season in Hoke's first year. He had a special ability to put games on his shoulders and win.
What we've seen since the Nebraska game of two seasons ago when Denard went down is what we can most reasonably expect from a Hoke-coached team.
What was most telling about the coaching staff's problems was the bowl game. That BWW bowl was the single most lackluster performance I've ever seen from a Michigan team; they looked as if they were in a practice instead of a game. I put that on the coaches.
They ought to win 9 games this year. They won't. They don't play well enough on the road. That's on the coaches, too.