Projects M to go 8-4 (5-3) and third in the East. Projects an 8% chance of winning the B1G and a 4% chance of finishing with 1 or fewer losses.*
Calculations are based on his drive-based FEI. He notes that last year we went 3-and-out on 38% of our possessions (92nd nationally) and had an explosive drive on only 12% of our possessions (73rd nationally).
He projects OSU to win the East with a 30% chance of winning the B1G and a 31% chance of finishing with one or fewer losses. MSU is 26/17%. Over in the West, he likes Wisconsin (17/15%) and Iowa (13/16%). But the West percentages show just how unbalanced the divisions are.
*Presented without comment as to what this record would mean for Hoke, etc. Plenty of threads on that.