Breaking Down Michigan football 2013
After today's disheartening loss, I thought I'd distract us from bball for the moment and look at the strengths and weaknesses of next year's football team and we are solid at almost every position with a few weaknesses mixed in.
OL: Lewan and schofield will be one of the best tackle combos in the big ten. The interior of the line will be young but talented. I think Kalis will make a huge impact next year.
RB: This was thought to be a weakness but after signing Smith and Green and the good reports on Fitz this could turn out to be a strength of the offense.
WR: We're a little thin on depth here. Gallon really came on strong last year and I believe he was 4th in the big ten in receiving yards. He'll be the go to receiver. Dileo showed flashes of briliance but disappeared during some games last year. The other WR spot will ikely go to either Darboh or Chesson.
TE:This should be one of the strengths of the team. After Funchess' freshman year, he should dominate with a year in the weight room to improve his blocking.
QB: Devin was really good in the NW and Iowa games and really played well against SC. I think he'll be our most accurate QB since Henne.
LB: This is definitely our best unit. Jake Ryan, Desmond Morgan, Joe Bolden, and James Ross are all solid.
CB: Hopefully Countess is healthy because he could be one of our key players on defense. Raymon Taylor was good in some games and torched in others.
S: Thomas Gordon played ok in 2012. I think either Jarrod Wilson or Dymonte will start at the other safety spot.
DL: This unit had some terrible games and some great games. I think it will really improve in 2012 with an extra year of coaching and young players like Ojemudia, Pipkins getting time in the weight room. I predict Quinton Washington will be a beast next year.
K: Gibbons has been money since his sophomore year. Wile looked good in the few kicks he had.
P: Even if Hagerup doesn't come back, I think we'll be fine here. Wile can boot the ball just as far.
CMU W
ND tossup/win (at home and at night we should pull it off)
Akron W
at Uconn W
Minnesota W
at PSU W
Indiana W
at MSU win (they don't have the offense without bell and Sims)
Nebraska W (they don't play well away from home and Mattison will force Martinez to throw)
at NW W (could be a trap game)
at Iowa W
Ohio tossup
February 9th, 2013 at 7:18 PM ^
February 9th, 2013 at 7:23 PM ^
Funchess looked good against MAC level competition but he really seemed to struggle later in the season.
February 9th, 2013 at 8:06 PM ^
We also have Jake Butt coming in as an early enrolee. There are question marks with each guy (will Funchess bulk up and improve his blocking? Will Williams improve? Can Butt contribute as a freshman?) but overall I think the OP is correct to be optimistic about that position group.
February 9th, 2013 at 8:39 PM ^
I guess I don't really remember Funchess being targeted after the first few games.
February 9th, 2013 at 7:25 PM ^
February 9th, 2013 at 7:30 PM ^
February 9th, 2013 at 7:35 PM ^
February 9th, 2013 at 7:34 PM ^
February 9th, 2013 at 7:37 PM ^
February 9th, 2013 at 7:48 PM ^
It will be interesting to see how the interior OL does against ND (all of them making their 2nd career start). That will be the key to the game.
February 9th, 2013 at 7:53 PM ^
As good as it gets, so get ready for it!
February 9th, 2013 at 8:18 PM ^
February 9th, 2013 at 8:33 PM ^
February 9th, 2013 at 8:57 PM ^
February 9th, 2013 at 8:25 PM ^
One of the best tackle combinations in the Big 10???? Considering we have the best tackle in the country and another top flight returning guy, I'd say we absolutely have the best tackles in the B1G and "one of the best" in the country.
February 9th, 2013 at 8:41 PM ^
I think you are a little optimistic about the TE's; they could be a strength this year but that is asking a lot. I think they will be a strength in the 2014 season, but we will still have some growing pains this year. I am also worried about the interior OL.
As for the schedule, I think you are underestimating how tough the games at PSU and NW will be. Even when laying NW at home this season, it took a hail mary pass to beat them. Also, Ohio and ND are going to be good teams again. I think the season could be a 4 loss season, but I think there is also a decent chance that we have only 1 loss or run the table. I think the difference will be how Gardner progresses because although he played well against SC, he missed a lot of open throws that were clearly on him. He was about 50% completion in that game. Given another off-season, I think he can make the steps to make him a good Big Ten QB, especially with his ability to scramble.
Sidenote, Martinez was the best passing QB in the Big Ten last season (granted, not saying much), so forcing him to throw it doesn't seem like it would guarantee the odds of winning, especially considering he had some good tosses against us last season.
February 9th, 2013 at 9:16 PM ^
February 9th, 2013 at 10:32 PM ^
So some freshmen didn't beat out seniors to start. That doesn't have me worried about the abilities of the returning players, since so many do make a huge leap from their first to second year of playing Div. 1 football.
February 10th, 2013 at 7:29 AM ^
I completely agree about the schedule. Even though last year was one of the most mediocre in recent memory, I really think the B1G is going to be competing with the SEC for toughest conference honors over the next five years. Bill O'Brien should have won coach of the year last year, and the normal "bottom tier" schools like NWU and IU show promise. Who knows what could come with Purdue and Wisconsin.
Not saying we won't win those games--we will--but the tougher those teams get, the more they wear you down for the top-tier teams (i.e. OSU and Nebraska).
February 10th, 2013 at 8:52 AM ^
Especially on the O line, there's a lot of complexity to grasp and implement at nearly the level of instinct. Those young guys might have a lot more talent but weren't overall better because they were still learning.
You may also be putting a little too much into those statement from the coaching staff. These are also the guys who call staph infections "boo boos" and pay a lot of lip service to the seniors. I don't doubt that they'd play a young guy ahead of an upperclassman if the former was signficantly better than the latter. I also wouldn't be surprised to find out that one of the major reasons for that statement being used so often was simply to foster competition in practice.
February 10th, 2013 at 12:21 PM ^
Their performance this year will be very telling as to whether Funk is a good coach or just a cool guy. I was disappointed with the OL performance last year given how 4/5 were returning. But who knows, maybe chalk that up to lack of talent and losing Molk who made them look better than they actually were the year before.
Now, with two stud tackles and 2 mountain 4 starts at guard, if he can't get a good push out of the line this year, it's time that he packs his bags. Im still not optimistic given that we couldnt even get good pushes on undersized teams like Northwestern, despite having 3 seniors on the interior and 2 good / great tackles.
Nevertheless, since the coaches are in year 3 with bryant, miller, schofield, lewan, and year 2 with Kalis, the line better be getting it done.
February 9th, 2013 at 8:54 PM ^
The TEs were pretty good last year. I don't think it's a stretch that they will be a strength next year during the season with all of them being fresmen last year.
February 9th, 2013 at 8:56 PM ^
Martinez was pretty bad in the big games. He threw the ball right at Wisconsin seemingly every play in the CCG. I don't get the pessism with having such an easy schedule and having the most talent we've had in a long time.
February 9th, 2013 at 10:26 PM ^
It's not as easy a schedule as it was in 2011. It't not pessimism to say that your prediction of what looks to be 12-0 or 11-1 seems as likely as 8-4. I think we are going to be good, but there are a lot of variables and too many unknowns to believe that we are going to go 12-0. I think 10-2 is the most likely. If Funchess and the interior line make significant steps and Fitz comes back to 2011 form off that terrible injury, then I think you will be right. Our defense is going to be pretty good I think especially if Countess comes back 100%. It's not impossible that we go 12-0 or 11-1, but I am not willing to say that I think it is going to happen.
February 10th, 2013 at 6:57 AM ^
I think UM has more variability in what the record might be for 2013 than it did in 2012. In the season just finished, UM had four very difficult games in which (in my opinion) they had little chance of winnng: Bama, @ND, @Nebraska, @OSU. The rest of their games were either on the road against bad teams (Minny, Purdue) or home games and I expected UM to win them (with only MSU being in the "tossup" category).
In 2013, UM has a lot of "tossup" games: ND, Nebraska, @PSU, @MSU, @NW, OSU. The unvarnished truth is that UM has not played well away from Ann Arbor in a long time and expecting them to beat PSU and MSU on the road is overly optimistic in my view. None of those games will be easy wins and I would not be shocked if UM lost any of those games. UM could lose all of them and finish 6-6, although I think that is extremely unlikely. I think UM will finish somewhere between 8-4 and 10-2. I'll split the difference and predict 9-3.
February 9th, 2013 at 8:57 PM ^
Northwestern has trap written all over it. That option will continue to give us issues, and I wish we have a bye before this game. I've said this several times before, but I think Pat Fitzgerald is on the verge of a major breakthrough with his program. And his recruiting has steadily gotten better every year. I think the division title will come down to us and Northwestern.
Don't want to make any OSU predictions until I see them in action next year. All I got to say is thank God we have them at home.
February 9th, 2013 at 9:08 PM ^
February 9th, 2013 at 9:32 PM ^
February 9th, 2013 at 10:21 PM ^
February 9th, 2013 at 11:35 PM ^
February 9th, 2013 at 10:27 PM ^
February 9th, 2013 at 9:26 PM ^
Our talent doesn't need to be elite to win 10 games. We saw this two years ago when we went 11-2. I never said our WRs would be better. I think you are overestimating MSU and PSU. MSU would have won 2/3 games last year without Bell and PSU loses a lot this year. Kalis will be an upgrade over Mealer. Bryant was out with an injury last year and is supposedly our best run blocker.
February 9th, 2013 at 10:07 PM ^
Nice post Thad, however although I believe our TE position group will be very talented I need to see Borges utilize them more than he did last year to think it will really benefit us. There were a lot of redzone and goaline packages were Funchess wasn't even on the field
February 9th, 2013 at 10:18 PM ^
will be better. It was pretty bad overall in 2012.. Kalis and Braden/Bryant will be better than Barnum and Omameh were last year. It is obvious those two did not fit the scheme because they got worse each year since Hoke arrived. I dont have an answer for who will play center..I would like to think whoever will be better then Mealer, our options are Jack Miller and a true freshman so I don't know. 2 stud tackles return and one of the most important things..talented big backs with some speed behind them...
I am excited to see the return of a power run game. I am sick of teams blitzing the A gap anticipating a QB draw or something only to kill Vinny Smith up the middle.
February 9th, 2013 at 10:27 PM ^
February 9th, 2013 at 11:38 PM ^
February 10th, 2013 at 1:45 AM ^
February 9th, 2013 at 11:31 PM ^
reality:
freshmen will have to contribute at several positions: TE, RB, backup QB, DB.
center postion- no experience, heir apparent seems physically inadequate.
coaching staff will have to regain their luster from 2011.
February 9th, 2013 at 11:46 PM ^
February 10th, 2013 at 12:34 AM ^
dont worry mod...i did the scoring myself. :)
So...based on what i have seen in the last few years...
its very tough to beat even mediocre teams on the road..so in 2013
we get :
@UConn: Win
@PSU: Loss
@MSU: Loss (unless MSU implodes before this game)
@NW: this is the trap game
@Iowa: Loss (its unbelievably tough to go there and win)
Ohio is also a tossup
I think the biggest thing I wanna see from Hoke and his team is mental toughness on the road which is really a big task. Go Blue!
February 10th, 2013 at 7:07 AM ^
I agree with everything except Iowa. Yes, I know Iowa City has been a difficult place fo all teams (and UM in particular) for some time, but it looks like the Hawkeyes are going to be pretty bad again next season and likely will be as long as Greg Davis is the OC. UM should beat Iowa next season regardless of the location.
EDIT: I should clarify my "agreement" with his post as agreeing that UM could lose those games on the road. I am not quite as confident that they will lose as the poster above, but those games are definitely no better than "tossups" in my opinion.
February 10th, 2013 at 9:31 AM ^
February 10th, 2013 at 1:50 AM ^
Does anyone know what the plans are for Justice Hayes? Obviously, it doesn't look like RB is in his future, but what about slot reciever, punt/kick returner, or defensive back?
February 10th, 2013 at 4:56 AM ^
I think he is still seen as the best speed option in the backfield, so if he has learned how to pick up the blitz he will be the heir apparent to V. Smith as third down back. The other option is Drake Johnson who is just as fast but bigger... and had practice buzz at the end of the season. Don't sleep on Johnson as a possibility at regular tailback as well. Norfleet will move back to offense but is too small for the third down blocking so perhaps will be used in the slot and/or jet sweeps.
February 10th, 2013 at 2:50 AM ^
... opening holes for Fitz/Green against ND. If they can block a "real" D-line, that will set expectations for a big year. If they can't ...
February 10th, 2013 at 6:38 AM ^
February 10th, 2013 at 7:53 AM ^
@MSU, @PSU, ND, OSU.
not to mention @Iowa & @ NW. one loss out of these 2 is very possible.
the schedule is lighter than last year, but we will be a VERY youg team with 3 new FR OLs, an average WR corps and questions at RB.
Defensively, I think we'll miss Kovaks more than most people realize. We still won't have much pass rush w/o blitzing.
8-4 or 9-3
February 10th, 2013 at 9:21 AM ^
February 10th, 2013 at 10:41 AM ^
February 10th, 2013 at 11:11 AM ^
or they are really young in key positions, but w/e UNACCEPTABLE