Breaking Down Michigan football 2013

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February 9th, 2013 at 8:02 PM
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ThadMattasagoblin
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Breaking Down Michigan football 2013

After today's disheartening loss, I thought I'd distract us from bball for the moment and look at the strengths and weaknesses of next year's football team and we are solid at almost every position with a few weaknesses mixed in.

OL:  Lewan and schofield will be one of the best tackle combos in the big ten.  The interior of the line will be young but talented.  I think Kalis will make a huge impact next year. 

RB: This was thought to be a weakness but after signing Smith and Green and the good reports on Fitz this could turn out to be a strength of the offense.

WR: We're a little thin on depth here.  Gallon really came on strong last year and I believe he was 4th in the big ten in receiving yards.  He'll be the go to receiver.  Dileo showed flashes of briliance but disappeared during some games last year.  The other WR spot will ikely go to either Darboh or Chesson.

TE:This should be one of the strengths of the team.  After Funchess' freshman year, he should dominate with a year in the weight room to improve his blocking.

QB:  Devin was really good in the NW and Iowa games and really played well against SC.  I think he'll be our most accurate QB since Henne. 

LB: This is definitely our best unit.  Jake Ryan, Desmond Morgan, Joe Bolden, and James Ross are all solid. 

CB: Hopefully Countess is healthy because he could be one of our key players on defense.  Raymon Taylor was good in some games and torched in others.

S: Thomas Gordon played ok in 2012.  I think either Jarrod Wilson or Dymonte will start at the other safety spot.

DL: This unit had some terrible games and some great games.  I think it will really improve in 2012 with an extra year of coaching and young players like Ojemudia, Pipkins getting time in the weight room.  I predict Quinton Washington will be a beast next year.

K: Gibbons has been money since his sophomore year.  Wile looked good in the few kicks he had.

P: Even if Hagerup doesn't come back, I think we'll be fine here.  Wile can boot the ball just as far.

CMU W

ND tossup/win (at home and at night we should pull it off)

Akron W

at Uconn W

Minnesota W

at PSU W

Indiana W

at MSU win (they don't have the offense without bell and Sims)

Nebraska W (they don't play well away from home and Mattison will force Martinez to throw)

at NW W (could be a trap game)

at Iowa W

Ohio tossup

 

903 wins most in college football

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February 9th, 2013 at 8:18 PM | What's with (Score:5 Normal)
DemetriusBrown
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MGoPoints: 681

The "tossup" games??? Michigan will not lose fergodsakes.

February 9th, 2013 at 8:23 PM | I'm a bit hesitant to call TE a source of strength (Score:1 Normal)
woomba
Joined: 10/19/2011
MGoPoints: 245

Funchess looked good against MAC level competition but he really seemed to struggle later in the season.  

February 9th, 2013 at 9:06 PM | Tight End (Score:5 Normal)
EGD
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We also have Jake Butt coming in as an early enrolee.  There are question marks with each guy (will Funchess bulk up and improve his blocking?  Will Williams improve?  Can Butt contribute as a freshman?) but overall I think the OP is correct to be optimistic about that position group.

"You will suffer humiliation when the team from my area defeats the team from your area." -- The Onion

February 9th, 2013 at 9:39 PM | I guess I don't really (Score:2 Normal)
tpilews
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I guess I don't really remember Funchess being targeted after the first few games. 

February 9th, 2013 at 8:25 PM | The only way we lose any game (Score:4 Normal)
NFG
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The only way we lose any game is if BIG TEN basketball refs are officiating our football games. They'd call us for passer interference on a goaline run play.

February 9th, 2013 at 8:30 PM | Right on (Score:3 Normal)
ryanlove12
Joined: 01/12/2013
MGoPoints: 244

I think we run the table. I think nw on the road will be tougher than Ohio at home. I really don't want to play them in Indy one week later though

February 9th, 2013 at 8:37 PM | Devin Funchess maybe? (Score:3 Normal)
exmtroj
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Devin Funchess maybe?

 

 

"All I've had today is, like, six gummy bears and some scotch"

February 9th, 2013 at 8:48 PM | It will be interesting to see (Score:5 Normal)
htm11
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It will be interesting to see how the interior OL does against ND (all of them making their 2nd career start). That will be the key to the game.

 

February 9th, 2013 at 8:53 PM | Beating the Buckeyes Twice in football in 2013.... (Score:2 Normal)
burtcomma
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As good as it gets, so get ready for it!

 

February 9th, 2013 at 9:18 PM | Even if all the "if's" turn (Score:1 Flamebait)
evenyoubrutus
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Even if all the "if's" turn out bad I still am only concerned about two games on this schedule' and I think we have the edge in both. I have a feeling we will be seeing osu in back to back games to end the season.

Why did I think we were playing App State this year?

Not that I loved Rich Rod less, but that I loved Michigan more.

February 9th, 2013 at 9:33 PM | 2014. Definitely a brand (Score:2 Normal)
OmarDontScare
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2014. Definitely a brand strengthening game. /Brandon'd

I got the shotgun. You got the briefcase. It's all in the game though, right?

February 9th, 2013 at 9:57 PM | Alright! One more full year (Score:1 Flamebait)
evenyoubrutus
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Alright! One more full year of anticipation!!

Not that I loved Rich Rod less, but that I loved Michigan more.

February 9th, 2013 at 9:25 PM | OL.... (Score:4 Normal)
cigol
Joined: 11/21/2010
MGoPoints: 347

One of the best tackle combinations in the Big 10????  Considering we have the best tackle in the country and another top flight returning guy, I'd say we absolutely have the best tackles in the B1G and "one of the best" in the country.

February 9th, 2013 at 9:41 PM | I think you are a little (Score:2 Normal)
redhousewolverine
Joined: 08/17/2010
MGoPoints: 822

I think you are a little optimistic about the TE's; they could be a strength this year but that is asking a lot. I think they will be a strength in the 2014 season, but we will still have some growing pains this year. I am also worried about the interior OL.

As for the schedule, I think you are underestimating how tough the games at PSU and NW will be. Even when laying NW at home this season, it took a hail mary pass to beat them. Also, Ohio and ND are going to be good teams again. I think the season could be a 4 loss season, but I think there is also a decent chance that we have only 1 loss or run the table. I think the difference will be how Gardner progresses because although he played well against SC, he missed a lot of open throws that were clearly on him. He was about 50% completion in that game. Given another off-season, I think he can make the steps to make him a good Big Ten QB, especially with his ability to scramble.

Sidenote, Martinez was the best passing QB in the Big Ten last season (granted, not saying much), so forcing him to throw it doesn't seem like it would guarantee the odds of winning, especially considering he had some good tosses against us last season.

"The unexamined life is not worth living." Socrates.

February 9th, 2013 at 10:16 PM | Yes, plus too optimistic (Score:2 Normal)
YoOoBoMoLloRoHo
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MGoPoints: 1010

about the interior OL, WR, safeties and schedule.

1. Interior - none of the 3 new starters were clearly better than Mealer, Omameh, and Barnum in August. Hoke says the best play and Miller, Burzynski, Bryant (even before the injury), Braden or Kalis didn't start ahead of those 3.
2. WR - so we lose sr Roundtree and replace with 2nd yr Darboh or Chesson - who again couldn't beat out Roy - and we're better? Maybe just a wash.
3. Safeties - Gordon was marginal this year and Wilson replacing Kovacs isn't an upgrade in the short term.
4. Schedule - Road games at MSU, NU and PSU are all dicey given our slim victories at home in 2012. ND has been a pick 'em with 1 min left the last 4 years. OSU is better than us on paper.

We are moving upward but our overall talent level is not yet elite based on Mathlete's data. Net, 10-2 is very plausible but 8-4 is as likely as 11-1.

"Everybody wants to be a hero, so to speak.  But it takes everybody."  - Charles Woodson

February 9th, 2013 at 11:32 PM | So some freshmen didn't beat (Score:2 Normal)
UMgradMSUdad
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So some freshmen didn't beat out seniors to start.  That doesn't have me worried about the abilities of the returning players, since so many do make a huge leap from their first to second year of playing Div. 1 football.

February 10th, 2013 at 8:29 AM | I completely agree about the (Score:1)
Bluesnu
Joined: 01/06/2011
MGoPoints: 122

I completely agree about the schedule.  Even though last year was one of the most mediocre in recent memory, I really think the B1G is going to be competing with the SEC for toughest conference honors over the next five years.  Bill O'Brien should have won coach of the year last year, and the normal "bottom tier" schools like NWU and IU show promise.  Who knows what could come with Purdue and Wisconsin. 

Not saying we won't win those games--we will--but the tougher those teams get, the more they wear you down for the top-tier teams (i.e. OSU and Nebraska). 

February 10th, 2013 at 9:52 AM | Maybe misinterpreting "the best play" (Score:2 Normal)
TyrannousLex
Joined: 11/05/2011
MGoPoints: 276

Especially on the O line, there's a lot of complexity to grasp and implement at nearly the level of instinct. Those young guys might have a lot more talent but weren't overall better because they were still learning.

You may also be putting a little too much into those statement from the coaching staff. These are also the guys who call staph infections "boo boos" and pay a lot of lip service to the seniors. I don't doubt that they'd play a young guy ahead of an upperclassman if the former was signficantly better than the latter. I also wouldn't be surprised to find out that one of the major reasons for that statement being used so often was simply to foster competition in practice.

 

February 10th, 2013 at 1:21 PM | Interior OL (Score:1)
cigol
Joined: 11/21/2010
MGoPoints: 347

Their performance this year will be very telling as to whether Funk is a good coach or just a cool guy.  I was disappointed with the OL performance last year given how 4/5 were returning. But who knows, maybe chalk that up to lack of talent and losing Molk who made them look better than they actually were the year before.

Now, with two stud tackles and 2 mountain 4 starts at guard, if he can't get a good push out of the line this year, it's time that he packs his bags.  Im still not optimistic given that we couldnt even get good pushes on undersized teams like Northwestern, despite having 3 seniors on the interior and 2 good / great tackles.  

Nevertheless, since the coaches are in year 3 with bryant, miller, schofield, lewan, and year 2 with Kalis, the line better be getting it done.

February 9th, 2013 at 9:54 PM | The TEs were pretty good last (Score:1)
ThadMattasagoblin
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The TEs were pretty good last year.  I don't think it's a stretch that they will be a strength next year during the season with all of them being fresmen last year.

903 wins most in college football

February 9th, 2013 at 9:56 PM | Martinez was pretty bad in (Score:1)
ThadMattasagoblin
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Martinez was pretty bad in the big games.  He threw the ball right at Wisconsin seemingly every play in the CCG.  I don't get the pessism with having such an easy schedule and having the most talent we've had in a long time.

903 wins most in college football

February 9th, 2013 at 11:26 PM | It's not as easy a schedule (Score:2 Normal)
redhousewolverine
Joined: 08/17/2010
MGoPoints: 822

It's not as easy a schedule as it was in 2011. It't not pessimism to say that your prediction of what looks to be 12-0 or 11-1 seems as likely as 8-4. I think we are going to be good, but there are a lot of variables and too many unknowns to believe that we are going to go 12-0. I think 10-2 is the most likely. If Funchess and the interior line make significant steps and Fitz comes back to 2011 form off that terrible injury, then I think you will be right. Our defense is going to be pretty good I think especially if Countess comes back 100%. It's not impossible that we go 12-0 or 11-1, but I am not willing to say that I think it is going to happen.

"The unexamined life is not worth living." Socrates.

February 10th, 2013 at 7:57 AM | I think UM has more (Score:2 Normal)
Logan88
Joined: 01/05/2009
MGoPoints: 2990

I think UM has more variability in what the record might be for 2013 than it did in 2012. In the season just finished, UM had four very difficult games in which (in my opinion) they had little chance of winnng: Bama, @ND, @Nebraska, @OSU. The rest of their games were either on the road against bad teams (Minny, Purdue) or home games and I expected UM to win them (with only MSU being in the "tossup" category).

In 2013, UM has a lot of "tossup" games: ND, Nebraska, @PSU, @MSU, @NW, OSU. The unvarnished truth is that UM has not played well away from Ann Arbor in a long time and expecting them to beat PSU and MSU on the road is overly optimistic in my view. None of those games will be easy wins and I would not be shocked if UM lost any of those games.  UM could lose all of them and finish 6-6, although I think that is extremely unlikely. I think UM will finish somewhere between 8-4 and 10-2. I'll split the difference and predict 9-3.

We ARE Michigan....COME GET SOME!!!

February 9th, 2013 at 9:57 PM | I should be more concerned (Score:2 Normal)
russale2012
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I should be more concerned about ND than I am. I know they lose a lot, especially on offense, but Everett Golson does not scare me. And losing their leader in T'eo will hurt them a lot.



Northwestern has trap written all over it. That option will continue to give us issues, and I wish we have a bye before this game. I've said this several times before, but I think Pat Fitzgerald is on the verge of a major breakthrough with his program. And his recruiting has steadily gotten better every year. I think the division title will come down to us and Northwestern.



Don't want to make any OSU predictions until I see them in action next year. All I got to say is thank God we have them at home.

Brady Hoke: Kicking Ass And Signing Names On The Recruiting Trail

February 9th, 2013 at 10:08 PM | Penn st. (Score:2 Normal)
MgoRayO3313
Joined: 11/05/2011
MGoPoints: 146

Call me crazy but for some reason I see us struggling at penn st. I think we barely pull out a close one. Tough place to play.

“A Michigan man will coach Michigan.” - Bo Schembechler
February 9th, 2013 at 10:32 PM | Really? (Score:3 Normal)
MaizeRage89
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They lost everyone this year... Downward spiral for the lions next year

February 9th, 2013 at 11:21 PM | I agree (Score:2 Normal)
MgoRayO3313
Joined: 11/05/2011
MGoPoints: 146

Everything tells me that our talent will win out, but for some reason I feel they will play us tough. Since they essentially play for pride every game I get the feeling that they will play their best against Michigan. It would be a low scoring affair, and things would have to go right for them, but I have a hunch.

“A Michigan man will coach Michigan.” - Bo Schembechler
February 10th, 2013 at 12:35 AM | A low scoring game? Maybe (Score:2)
WolvinLA2
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A low scoring game? Maybe for them. They lose their whole defense. We'll slaughter them.

February 9th, 2013 at 11:27 PM | Your greatest enemy (Score:1 Normal)
cozy200
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Is a man with nothing to lose. Don't sleep on PSU.

Its called a royale with cheese

February 9th, 2013 at 10:26 PM | Our talent doesn't need to be (Score:1)
ThadMattasagoblin
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Our talent doesn't need to be elite to win 10 games.  We saw this two years ago when we went 11-2.  I never said our WRs would be better.  I think you are overestimating MSU and PSU.  MSU would have won 2/3 games last year without Bell and PSU loses a lot this year.  Kalis will be an upgrade over Mealer.  Bryant was out with an injury last year and is supposedly our best run blocker.

903 wins most in college football

February 9th, 2013 at 11:07 PM | Nice post Thad, however (Score:1)
Clown Sauce
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Nice post Thad, however although I believe our TE position group will be very talented I need to see Borges utilize them more than he did last year to think it will really benefit us. There were a lot of redzone and goaline packages were Funchess wasn't even on the field

"What" ain't no country I ever heard of. They speak English in What?

February 9th, 2013 at 11:18 PM | Why do people keep doubting the O-line (Score:2)
HAIL-YEA
Joined: 07/15/2009
MGoPoints: 1026

will be better. It was pretty bad overall in 2012.. Kalis and Braden/Bryant will be better than  Barnum and Omameh were last year. It is obvious those two did not fit the scheme because they got worse each year since Hoke arrived. I dont have an answer for who will play center..I would like to think whoever will be better then Mealer, our options are Jack Miller and a true freshman so I don't know. 2 stud tackles return and one of the most important things..talented big backs with some speed behind them...

I am excited to see the return of a power run game. I am sick of teams blitzing the A gap anticipating a QB draw or something only to kill Vinny Smith up the middle.

How can you kill that which has no life

February 9th, 2013 at 11:27 PM | Not a Borges hater (Score:1 Normal)
MgoRayO3313
Joined: 11/05/2011
MGoPoints: 146

I am not a Borges hater in the least. I too am thrilled to see the return of the power run game. However, for some reason Borges loves the little guy up the middle. I just pray I see plenty of fitz and green up the middle. I don't want justice Hayes to become the new Vincent smith

“A Michigan man will coach Michigan.” - Bo Schembechler
February 10th, 2013 at 12:38 AM | I don't really think Borges (Score:2)
WolvinLA2
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I don't really think Borges likes running the little guy that much, or he wouldn't have recruited Green, Smith and Shallman.

February 10th, 2013 at 2:45 AM | hate to waste talent (Score:1)
MgoRayO3313
Joined: 11/05/2011
MGoPoints: 146

Its far to early to judge, but assuming your gonna look to these young guys and fitz to run the ball do you try to get a guy like justice hayes to possibly play the slot. I had the opportunity to watch him in hs and he had solid hands. He is a guy that I am curious to see where he goes from here.

“A Michigan man will coach Michigan.” - Bo Schembechler
February 10th, 2013 at 12:31 AM | optimistic assessment (Score:0 Trolling)
February 10th, 2013 at 12:46 AM | That's not reality. Freshmen (Score:2)
WolvinLA2
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MGoPoints: 18039

That's not reality. Freshmen will only contribute at TE and RB if they're good enough to (and we recruited studs at those spots), a freshmen will unlikely be the back up QB (as if that's really a huge deal) and we will certainly not need frosh at DB, again unless someone like Dymonte is just a monster. And why do you think Jack Miller is physically inadequate? He was 288 last fall, and should be close to 300 this fall, which is not a small center at all.

February 10th, 2013 at 1:34 AM | so... (Score: -1 Flamebait) (Score:-1 Flamebait)
February 10th, 2013 at 8:07 AM | I agree with everything (Score:1)
Logan88
Joined: 01/05/2009
MGoPoints: 2990

I agree with everything except Iowa. Yes, I know Iowa City has been a difficult place fo all teams (and UM in particular) for some time, but it looks like the Hawkeyes are going to be pretty bad again next season and likely will be as long as Greg Davis is the OC. UM should beat Iowa next season regardless of the location.

 

EDIT: I should clarify my "agreement" with his post as agreeing that UM could lose those games on the road. I am not quite as confident that they will lose as the poster above, but those games are definitely no better than "tossups" in my opinion.

We ARE Michigan....COME GET SOME!!!

February 10th, 2013 at 2:50 AM | Does anyone know what the (Score:2)
WilmotCt
Joined: 10/18/2012
MGoPoints: 30

Does anyone know what the plans are for Justice Hayes? Obviously, it doesn't look like RB is in his future, but what about slot reciever, punt/kick returner, or defensive back?

February 10th, 2013 at 5:56 AM | Third Down Back (Score:3 Normal)
jbibiza
Joined: 10/08/2009
MGoPoints: 1950

I think he is still seen as the best speed option in the backfield, so if he has learned how to pick up the blitz he will be the heir apparent to V. Smith as third down back.  The other option is Drake Johnson who is just as fast but bigger... and had practice buzz at the end of the season.  Don't sleep on Johnson as a possibility at regular tailback as well.  Norfleet  will move back to offense but is too small for the third down blocking so perhaps will be used in the slot and/or jet sweeps.

jbibiza

February 10th, 2013 at 3:50 AM | I won't be optimistic about the O-Line until I see them (Score:2 Normal)
ca_prophet
Joined: 09/07/2010
MGoPoints: 212

... opening holes for Fitz/Green against ND.  If they can block a "real" D-line, that will set expectations for a big year.  If they can't ...

February 10th, 2013 at 7:38 AM | I hope the safety position is (Score:1)
graybeaver
Joined: 03/30/2012
MGoPoints: 279

I hope the safety position is better all around especially against the pass. Kovacs was great against the run, but he seemed to be out of position when defending against the pass. He didn't have very good recovery speed either. South Carolina did a good job recognizing that weakness. The Ol' ball coach is still pretty good at what he does.

February 10th, 2013 at 8:53 AM | @MSU, @PSU, ND, OSU.   not to (Score:1)
Michigan Arrogance
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@MSU, @PSU, ND, OSU.

 

not to mention @Iowa & @ NW. one loss out of these 2 is very possible.

 

the schedule is lighter than last year, but we will be a VERY youg team with 3 new FR OLs, an average WR corps and questions at RB.

Defensively, I think we'll miss Kovaks more than most people realize. We still won't have much pass rush w/o blitzing.

8-4 or 9-3

Harvard: The MICHIGAN of the East

We're not arrogant, we're just better.

February 10th, 2013 at 10:21 AM | Agreed (Score:1)
Ty Butterfield
Joined: 09/07/2009
MGoPoints: 930

I think another 8-4 season is very likely.

"But in the tire fire that was last year's secondary he showed a little spark." - Brian Cook

February 10th, 2013 at 11:41 AM | It's year three for Hoke. (Score:-1 Trolling)
February 10th, 2013 at 12:11 PM | or they are really young in (Score:2 Normal)
Michigan Arrogance
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MGoPoints: 4344

or they are really young in key positions, but w/e UNACCEPTABLE

Harvard: The MICHIGAN of the East

We're not arrogant, we're just better.

February 10th, 2013 at 12:06 PM | To me if its not a double (Score:-1 Normal)
February 10th, 2013 at 12:21 PM | If you can Hoke now you can (Score:3 Normal)
phork
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Joined: 11/01/2009
MGoPoints: 1162

If you can Hoke now you can be sure that you'll be in a rut like ND was after Willingham.  Not quite so bad because Hoke has refilled the pantry the last few years.  It is hard to get out of that rut.

Meyer won with an already stacked roster, which means only DOOM once he gets the kids he wants in.  Harbaugh did an amazing job at Stanford, I agree.

All I am saying is, becareful what you wish for.  A coach, especially in any non-SEC setting, should get 5 years to implement his system.  By the point the players have either bought in 100% or not so much.  Take Kiffin for example.

February 10th, 2013 at 2:14 PM | Its all about coaching and (Score:-1 Flamebait)
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