ijohnb

January 8th, 2013 at 3:55 PM ^

that is not exactly a sweetheart of an 8/9 matchup right there.  I would like our prospects if we won that second round game.  Remember one thing, it has served me well in several pools, Syracuse is always overrated. 

Joined: 09/21/2009

MGoPoints: 69986

Daniel

January 8th, 2013 at 4:18 PM ^

"transitive property does not apply" thing a bit too hard right now.

Sports is entirely based on two teams playing against each other at a specific point in time. The transitive property isn't conclusive, but neither is it meaningless.

Joined: 11/26/2011

MGoPoints: 958

Butterfield

January 8th, 2013 at 4:15 PM ^

If you are saying Baylor is better than Northwestern despite that one game, I would agree with you.  More times than not, Baylor beats Northwestern.  However - the fact that they lost at home to Northwestern even if it was a 1 in 10 type of situation illustrates how un-scary Baylor is as a potential Michigan opponent.  Good teams, teams that would be capable of beating Michigan, do not lose to a team by 11 points at home when Michigan stomps that same team by 28 on the road.  If NW beat Baylor by 1 and Michigan beat NW by 3 it's a whole different story. 

As to the OPs weariness about Baylor's size - NW has less size than Michigan and somehow won.  I have no idea how, but they did.  Would love this matchup. 

Joined: 01/15/2011

MGoPoints: 2398

EQ RC Blue

January 8th, 2013 at 4:20 PM ^

First, I'm looking to avoid a team like Kentucky as an 8 seed (they're currently a 7 seed).  Even teams like UCLA or UNC with lots of elite young talent who could put something together.  You have to play somebody in the second round, and I think we would shred Baylor's d. 

Second, we avoid Kansas as the 2 seed, and UNLV and NCState aren't particularly scary.  I'm not sure we could see this bracket because rematches generally are avoided until the Elite 8, unless I'm mistaken.   

Joined: 08/18/2011

MGoPoints: 422

justingoblue

January 8th, 2013 at 4:33 PM ^

I'm really sorry to threadjack, but this would be the kind of OP I'd take down after an hour or so and I'd feel hypocritical making a post like this myself, so I put this into the two MBB-ish threads on the board. I just have a few questions about buying basketball tickets for tomorrow (Nebraska):

  1. What's a fair price for two lower bowl tickets?
  2. What's a fair price to get two people into Crisler?
  3. Will scalpers generally get desprate for this kind of game and unload cheap outside the gate?

I see getting in costs about $25 on Craigslist and StubHub, with the cheapest lower bowl tickets going in the $60 range. Will that hold up until tipoff, or am I better off waiting to pull the trigger? Also, any advice on a good location in the upper bowl would be helpful (if I can get lower, I'm buying regardless of location), even if you don't know about the ticket market.

Joined: 11/16/2010

MGoPoints: 29741

MGoRossGrad

January 8th, 2013 at 4:52 PM ^

First off, this is the first Bracketology that has Michigan winning the B1G instead of Indiana.  I'm fine with that.

I echo some other posters:  I'd much rather take a solid, but not-very-intimidating Baylor (or, honestly, a scarier Marquette bunch), than some other 8/9ish teams out there:  UCLA, Kentucky, North Carolina, etc.  I know they're big name programs that are having off years, but they are all still much better than 8/9 seeds.

Granted it's not gonna shake out exactly like this, the Midwest bracket looks the toughest.  UNLV, NC State, VCU, Florida, Davidson, Virginia, Syracuse, Marquette

Joined: 11/18/2012

MGoPoints: 164

San Diego Mick

January 8th, 2013 at 5:14 PM ^

Possibly ohio v Duke and M v NCST, with regards to our bracket, FLA & Cuse would cancel each other out before possibly facing us, FLA is dangerous especially with the coach they have.

 

Gonzaga, ND, Creighton and Missou are all too highly seeded IMHO

and Kansas or Ind should be the other 1 seed, not a lucky AZ

Joined: 05/11/2011

MGoPoints: 50527

Butterfield

January 8th, 2013 at 5:44 PM ^

I was just thinking how I'd love to see this team get a shot at Blake Griffin and the Oklahoma squad that eliminated us in our return to the tourney 4 years ago.  Going into that game, there was an obvious sense amongst fans that Michigan was outgunned - not a team in the country that would give me that feeling right now. 

But as we all know basketball is a funny game and off nights lead to losses you wouldn't expect.  Just hoping we can be hot at the right time, in the tourney. 

Joined: 01/15/2011

MGoPoints: 2398

aiglick

January 8th, 2013 at 5:53 PM ^

Like the locations for Michigan in this bracket. Would probably rather them be in the Midwest and get a little home court advantage then have an easier bracket out West.

Joined: 11/27/2010

MGoPoints: 21418

LSAClassOf2000

January 8th, 2013 at 6:21 PM ^

Every now and again,  they simulate the season at TeamRankings and project the probabilities of various position for all Division I teams. By their figuring, here is how the Big Ten looks right now:

 

Team Any #1 Top 4 Sweet 16 Final 4 Champ%
Indiana 100% 56% 96% 80% 44% 19.70%
Michigan 99% 19% 78% 57% 17% 3.70%
Minnesota 99% 7% 59% 48% 12% 2.30%
Ohio State 90% 1% 18% 36% 10% 2.00%
Illinois 80% 0% 13% 16% 2% 0.20%
Michigan St 82% 0% 10% 21% 4% 0.50%
Wisconsin 75% 0% 7% 22% 5% 0.80%
Iowa 13% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0.00%
Northwestern 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.00%
Purdue 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.00%
Penn State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.00%
Nebraska 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.00%

"Any" is basically the projected  odds of making the tournament at all, and of course, "#1" and "Top 4" are basically the projected odds of being a 1-seed or in the top 4 based on their model. 

I think they do this weekly, so it will be interesting to  revisit these periodically. I am curious as to what their model takes into consideration, however, but I tend to agree with the teams that would have a better than 80% chance of making it right now. 

Joined: 01/07/2011

MGoPoints: 130561