Bowl selection process question
So every bowl prediction I've seen has Michigan in the Sugar Bowl against Houston. Now I know this is a terrible thought -(Strictly hypothetical) but there is a chance we lose to Ohio St. Where would that put us in the bowl selection lineup?
I've been looking at them more closely lately whats odd is that some have MSU playing in the outback and teams like Nebraska in the Cap One bowl. http://collegefootball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1297268
but I'm wondering why Nebraska would jump MSU? I could see MSU dropping out of the BCS with a loss in the title game but why on earth would they drop two bowls down? As Brian pointed out on the UV for today the top two bowls (outback and cap one) have rules as to who they can and can't pick and I'm wondering why MSU, even though I hate MSU, would drop that low after being in the title game.
Furthermore would that mean Michigan would jump MSU in the bowls no matter what as long as MSU loses the big ten title game?
November 22nd, 2011 at 2:10 PM ^
Care about making money ie selling tickets, merch etc. the nebraska fan base is known to travel very well. Aka the red last week in the big house. MSU fans dont travel that well and it doesnt hurt Neb beat MSU 24-3
November 22nd, 2011 at 2:13 PM ^
I'm just wondering where that leaves us? Is it BCS bowl or Outback for us? Or would we slip into the cap one bowl? This is especially a good question if MSU does actually win and we're up against a Wisconsin or PSU who we have really no obvious tie-breakers with.
November 22nd, 2011 at 2:11 PM ^
Remember, the appeal of any given team to a bowl is a sum of all the following:
1. How good the team is.
2. How popular the team is - how many people will want to see the game in the stands and on TV.
3. How well the school's fans travel - how much money they'll spend on tickets, hotels, attractions, etc.
Schools like Michigan, Ohio State, and Nebraska always score well on #2 and #3 regardless of how good the team did on any given year. MSU fails hard on those criteria, so even if they have a pretty good team this year, they're less attractive than some of the other options.
November 22nd, 2011 at 2:11 PM ^
Care about making money ie selling tickets, merch etc. the nebraska fan base is known to travel very well. Aka the red last week in the big house. MSU fans dont travel that well and it doesnt hurt Neb beat MSU 24-3 and yes, we are a wayyyyy more attractive option for any bowl than sparty.
November 22nd, 2011 at 2:13 PM ^
Let's say that Michigan ends up 10-2, MSU ends up 10-3 (winning Saturday and losing the championship), Nebraska ends up 9-3, and Penn State ends up 9-3 (losing to Wisconsin).
If that's the case, the Sugar Bowl or another BCS bowl can pick any Big Ten team in the top 16. Michigan would certainly be in the top 16, and would be the only one with 2 losses, so the BCS bowl would certainly pick Michigan.
The Capital One Bowl would then be allowed to pick Michigan State, Nebraska or Penn State, since they are all within 1 win of each other and within 1 loss of each other. There is no way that the Capital One Bowl would pick Penn State, and they would certainly choose Nebraska over Michigan State since Nebraska travels better and has a bigger TV following.
That leaves the Outback to choose any Big Ten team with a winning record that it wants--MSU 10-3, PSU 9-3 or Iowa 7-5. I think MSU would get picked here.
There are constraints for the selections, but the bowls can pick any team within those constraints. Any bowl would be stupid to pick MSU if Nebraska is still available, even though MSU is 10-3 and Nebraska is 9-3.
November 22nd, 2011 at 2:23 PM ^
That should say "top 14," right?
November 22nd, 2011 at 2:25 PM ^
Yes, of course you're right. Top 14.
November 22nd, 2011 at 2:24 PM ^
Correct, top 14.
November 22nd, 2011 at 2:30 PM ^
I think you're right that MSU's likely to go to the Outback Bowl should they lose in the championship game and Nebraska beat Iowa. They were just in the Cap One last year, and Nebraska's never been down there. The furthest they can fall this year, FYI, is the Insight Bowl (whichever of the Insight/Gator picks first is obligated to pick the loser of the championship game should that team fall to them). The only way I see MSU falling that far is if they lose to Northwestern, and Iowa beats Nebraska or if we lose to OSU (no jinx). Then, conceiveably the Cap One would pick us, Outback pick's UNL, and MSU falls to the Insight, driving them crazy, but they would be on a two game losing streak.
Penn State's radioactive, they're falling as far as possible, likely to the Car Bowl, though even it might pick Northwestern if they beat MSU and PSU loses to UW, as NU fans have turned out well for bowls (better than for home games at times). That would put Penn State in the Ticket City Bowl.
November 22nd, 2011 at 2:19 PM ^
If Michigan State wins the B1GCG and M wins Saturday, I expect the Citrus Bowl (screw the Capital One name, wtf) will still choose Nebraska over Wisconsin. They've probably never had Nebraska there.
Just beat Ohio. Just. Beat. Ohio.
November 22nd, 2011 at 2:24 PM ^
But that's exactly what I'm saying....what happens if the unthinkable happens and we lose to OSU? Where does that leave us in the bowl selection process? Seems odd that we either go to a BCS bowl or we go to the outback or lower. I'm wondering if there's a possibility we land in the cap one bowl?
November 22nd, 2011 at 2:36 PM ^
Here is all the rules for bowl selection per Adam Rittenburg at ESPN -
"GENERAL NOTES
- A Big Ten team ranked No. 1 or No. 2 in the final BCS standings will play in the BCS national championship game. Otherwise, the Big Ten champion will play in the Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO.
- A Big Ten team may be selected as a BCS at-large participant if it has won at least nine regular-season games and is ranked among the top 14 in the final BCS standings.
- The loser of the Big Ten championship game will be selected no later than the fourth pick after the BCS selection(s) -- no later than the Insight or Gator Bowl selections. This year, Insight picks ahead of Gator. If there's only one Big Ten team in the BCS bowls, the title game loser could fall no lower than Gator. If there are two Big Ten teams in BCS bowls, the title game loser could fall no lower than Insight."
Sorry I don't know how to block quote.
You can find the rest of guidelines here - http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/39509/reviewing-b1gs-bowl-selection-procedure
November 22nd, 2011 at 2:49 PM ^
PSA: To blockquote, switch to plain text, type <blockquote> and </blockquote> around what you want to quote, type in a little something after so that when you switch back, what you type doesn't stay in blockquote mode, and then proceed directly to the Profit section of the instructions.
November 22nd, 2011 at 2:56 PM ^
That's exactly what I'm looking for. So I wonder, still, what happens if Michigan loses this weekend where we end up
November 22nd, 2011 at 3:33 PM ^
If we lose this weekend, the B1G standings will look like this:
1. Big Ten Champ (to Rose Bowl)
2a. Big Ten Runner Up (could be Michigan State, Wisconsin, or Penn State, but in any case they'll be 10-3 unless State loses to Northwestern this week)
2b. Michigan (9-3)
2c. Loser of Wisconsin/Penn State (9-3)
2d. Nebraska (9-3, unless they lose to Iowa this week)
Looks like a crap shoot to me. The top non-BCS bowls will have up to 4 three-loss teams to chose from, and it becomes more of a popularity contest in that case. The championship game loser might have an advantage with its 10 wins, but that could be cancelled out if it's Michigan State (not a great travel/fan team) or Penn State (Sandusky Fallout).
November 22nd, 2011 at 3:39 PM ^
The Big 10 would probably not have a second team in the top 14 of the BCS, though it is possible Nebraska would sneak in there. So, BIG champ to Rose Bowl, Cap One would then choose between the following 3 loss teams - Mich, MSU/Wisc loser, Penn St and Nebraska (assuming Wisconsin beats PSU, if not then still same choices just MSU/PSU loser and Wisconsin). Among those 4, I would guess Cap One steers clear of PSU for obvious reasons. I am thinking they would go with Nebraska there, because they have never been, but Michigan and Wisconsin are possible. That leaves Mich or /MSU/Wisc loser for Outback, figure Michigan would get chosen among those two, but Wisconsin is certainl a possibility.
November 22nd, 2011 at 4:02 PM ^
I don't know why the assumption is that Penn State will get passed on because of the scandal. Wouldn't a ratings-minded bowl executive want the attention? Not only that, but there's a certain amount of rallying around the football team going on; certainly there are few, if any, PSU fans saying "I'll never root for the team again." People are trying to reinforce the Penn State ideal and support those who they think are unfairly caught up in this, which, the players certainly fall into that category. This'd be a good year to get them traveling. If I were a bowl exec I would absolutely think about arguing for Penn State over, say, MSU, or OSU (whose fans just want this year to end), or Iowa.