Bowl outlook for Michigan and B1G
With the way the season has gone, up to this point there hasn't been much discussion on what the actual bowl outlook will be. We've been focused on the CFP, which is still a real possibility, but I'd like to take a step back and examine what the possible scenarios are--not just for Michigan, but for the rest of the B1G too. The way I see it, there are 3 possible outcomes:
1) Michigan wins out, wins the BTCG. Obviously the ideal scenario for us fans. In this case, I'd expect OSU to go to the Rose over a 3-loss Wisconsin.
2) Michigan beats OSU, loses to Wisconsin. Wisconsin goes to the CFP, Michigan goes to the Rose Bowl
3) OSU beats Michigan. Here's where it gets interesting. Assuming PSU wins out, would an 11-1 OSU team make the CFP over a 12-2 Big Ten Champ PSU or Wisconsin? My gut says yes. OSU will be #2 going into The Game, no doubt about it. Therefore they would have to fall 3 spots during championship week. In the podcast, Brian seems to think this would happen, but I'm not so sure. PSU and Wisconsin have a pretty big hill to clime, and OSU has a long way to fall. That would put PSU/Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl--so where does that leave Michigan? Is there a limit to the number of NY6 bowls a conference can have? I.e. is there a conceivable scenario where OSU is in the CFP, PSU/Wisconsin is in the Rose, and Michigan faces .... *dramatic music* Western in the Cotton Bowl? Or would the more likely scenario be a rematch of last year's Citrus Bowl?
November 15th, 2016 at 12:19 AM ^
November 15th, 2016 at 12:21 AM ^
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November 15th, 2016 at 7:53 AM ^
Actually it's 13. Rutgers is not eligible and is specifically excluded from the rule.
November 15th, 2016 at 12:30 AM ^
on teams per conference.
One thing that will happen however, in the 2016 iteration of the NYD Bowls, is that there is a selection order as regards B1G teams:
(1) Playoff Bowls obviously go first.
(2) If the B1G champion goes to a playoff Bowl, The Rose gets the NEXT pick of a B1G team.
(3) The Orange then is guaranteed to get the highest ranked team among Notre Dame (ha ha ha), remaining B1G teams, and remaining SEC Bowls (after the Sugar gets precedence in picking a SEC team).
(4) Then the Cotton Bowl would have a possible shot at B1G teams for their own at-large spot.
November 15th, 2016 at 12:49 AM ^
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November 15th, 2016 at 10:47 AM ^
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November 15th, 2016 at 12:24 AM ^
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November 15th, 2016 at 12:24 AM ^
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November 15th, 2016 at 12:24 AM ^
In your last scenario 2 Big Ten teams would make the playoff. Michigan would go to the Rose Bowl.
November 15th, 2016 at 12:28 AM ^
If two teams from one conference are making the playoff, it's definitely Clemson and Louisville. I could forsee a scenario where it's:
#1 Alabama vs. #4 Louisville
#2 OSU vs. #3 Clemson
November 15th, 2016 at 12:47 AM ^
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November 15th, 2016 at 12:58 AM ^
November 15th, 2016 at 1:09 AM ^
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November 15th, 2016 at 9:03 AM ^
November 15th, 2016 at 12:29 PM ^
having the Heisman trophy winner on your team is playoff criteria. On what are you basing this?
A one-loss Louisville probably will and probably should make the playoff if OSU wins the B1G, but if OSU wins out and is left out of the B1G title game, the B1G is getting two teams before the ACC does. 100%. OSU and PSU/Wisky would be in over Louisville. So Louisville would only make it if Clemson loses the ACC title game (or before). There is also still a chance for Colorado. They'll finish with three ranked teams if they win out and it would/could be enough to propel them over Louisville.
November 15th, 2016 at 12:24 AM ^
OSU and PSU wins out, but then Wisconsin wins the B1G Championship. That would mean the CFP Committee would have to choose between a 12-2 B1G Champs Wisconsin or a 11-1 OSU with a H2H win over Wisconsin... In that scenario, I think the committee would choose to include OSU in the playoffs.
Another possibility is that Auburn miraculously beats Alabama, and OSU wins out... which bumps Ohio State up to #1 before the conference championships. Regardless of who wins which conference, would sitting out a week of games be enough to bump OSU from #1 to #5 or below?
November 15th, 2016 at 12:51 AM ^
I think this is right. Not only does OSU have only one loss instead of 2 for Wisconsin but they have a win over Michigan, @Oklahoma, and obliteration of Nebraska. Whereas Wisconsin has wins over Nebraska, LSU and Penn State (in B10CG) with all 3 likely being very tight as I doubt they make enough explosive plays to stomp on PSU. Even assuming Alabama, Clemson and maybe a WI/PSU winner, how do you put in Louisville before OSU? OSU has the better wins, better ranking etc.
Where it gets really weird is if OSU beats us, but then PSU beats WI. What then for the B1G? PSU has 2 weaker losses with Pitt and while losing to us is a "good loss", the huge margin looks bad. But unlike Wisconsin, PSU can at least claim the head to head over OSU and the conference championship. Would that be enough to offset the extra loss? OSU wins the eyeball test for sure but I wouldnt be surprised if a committee stuck with a conference champion in that case. Which really...kind of shocking on several levels that PSU could be in contention.
November 15th, 2016 at 1:02 AM ^
1. Championships won
2. Strength of schedule
3. Head to head
4. Comparative outcomes of common opponents
There's no way the committee leaves out a Big Ten champ Penn State just because Ohio States passes the eye test. They dropped TCU from 3 to 6th in 2014 because of this scenario. Which ironically helped Ohio State.
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November 15th, 2016 at 1:27 AM ^
PSU would be ahead of OSU (amazingly) if they win the division over OSU, have the head-to-head, and win the conference.
Committee would have a lot more difficult decision with Wisconsin since they lost the head-to-head with OSU.
The thing is, I doubt the committee would have to leave one out. I think if PSU wins the division and OSU wins out, the B1G is getting two teams. Washington is likely to lose again, which could leave out the PAC12. Clemson could easily lose again as well. I'm betting on chaos!
November 15th, 2016 at 3:35 AM ^
November 15th, 2016 at 4:29 PM ^
The OSU - Wisconsin head to head went to overtime. There is no claer compelling eveidence that OSU is far superior. It's not like OSU beat them down by 30 points.
The head to head, a virtual tie, does not outweigh a Big Ten championship.
November 15th, 2016 at 3:25 AM ^
November 15th, 2016 at 8:05 AM ^
The only thing that 2014 TCU proved as a precedent was that head to head matters a lot. Past that, the TCU (1 loss) situation was different. The teams they were being compared to that passed them in the final poll- FSU, OSU and Baylor- all had 0 (FSU) or 1 loss. All were conference champions. The only head to head factor was Baylor-TCU which obviously played a major role there, in concert with Baylor improving their resume with a win at #9 Kansas State. So TCU falls behind an FSU team they were behind all year that had fewer losses. TCU falls behind an OSU team that won a CCG, improved SOS and destroyed Wisconsin (and yes the eyeball test does matter even if it isn't on your official critera). And they fall behind Baylor who tied them for the conference championship, regardless of how they frame the tiebreakers, had the same number of losses, comparable SOS but Baylor won head to head.
Those situations and comparisons are all much different than the ones in play here because of the extra loss PSU/WI have. And in particular for WI, because of the head to head loss to OSU for WI. Home loss too. I mean, I think there is a good chance PSU/WI would get in, perhaps even ahead of OSU, or perhaps both. But your precedent where a 1 loss team is ranked lower than an undefeated ACC champion, 1 loss B1G champ coming off a curb stomping and 1 loss Big 12 champ that had the head to head win over TCU doesn't fit this situation. TCU really had no compelling factors in its favor in those comparisons. OSU has 1 loss and PSU/WI have 2, OSU has the head to head on WI, and OSU probably has the best resume for wins/SOS.
November 15th, 2016 at 1:12 AM ^
"PSU can at least claim the head to head over OSU and the conference championship". I would actually call that a dominant claim that could not be denied or all is not right in the world.
November 15th, 2016 at 12:02 PM ^
Its the same reason Louisville isn't going to make the playoff. Clemson will be in the ACC Championship game and will likely be playing Virginia Tech. If they win, they are in and L'Ville is out because you're not going to put them in ahead of Ohio State or whoever wins the Pac-12. Because they would'nt have beaten anyone to justify that.
Now if they lose to Va. Tech...then it gets interesting. You might see the ACC left out altogether in that scenario. Their "best" team would be L'Ville who would have a terrible resume compared to other 1-loss teams and even 2-loss teams.
November 15th, 2016 at 9:11 AM ^
the committee puts in an OSU team that that didn't win its division over a PSU team that won the conference AND won the head to head.
1 loss conf champ Washington might get in over Louisville as well.
Oklahoma could get in over Louisville if they win the big 12 and chaos ensues.
The likelihood of another chaos weekend is slim. Probably chalk the rest of the way in the SEC and ACC. I still like Michigan to win the conference, so there's 3 spots.
November 15th, 2016 at 7:30 AM ^
November 15th, 2016 at 8:03 AM ^
I'm adamant about this and even outside of the current situation.
No non-division winner should ever be allowed in the CFP. The reason? They are essentially getting a BYE in the CCG week. Just because a team finished ahead of a non-division winner, they not only get the chance to win the conference, but also have to put their record on the line against a good opponent.
It's actually advantageous for OSU NOT to make the CCG in terms of its CFP chances. That's jacked up.
Normally, I'd make this a blanket statement about non-conference winners too but I can see a situation where a 0-loss team gets its first loss in the CCG and still remains one of the top 4 teams in the nation.
However, a team that doesn't win its own division AND doesn't have the division winner already in the top 4 does not deserve to go simply because it misses an opportunity to either further its case with a win or have to put its spot in the final 4 on the line by playing a quality opponent.
November 15th, 2016 at 9:14 AM ^
It's absurd. "best team" is so subjective. It should start with undefeated P5 conference champs, then all other P5 champs, then 1 loss ccg runner ups. That should be more than enough. 2 losses in most years should eliminate teams from the playoffs, barring a wild conf champ.
November 15th, 2016 at 12:30 AM ^
November 15th, 2016 at 12:34 AM ^
If we lose to OSU, particularly if we lose to OSU handily, we won't end up making a NY6 bowl. I'm just keeping my logic simple so my brain won't explode thinking about 40 different scenarios.
November 15th, 2016 at 12:55 AM ^
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November 15th, 2016 at 10:19 AM ^
Like you said there a ton of scenarios but by the end of the season the amount of teams with two losses or less isn't going to be very big.
PSU/Wisky - one or both of these end up with at least 3 losses.
Bama is the only SEC team that could possibly end the season with 2 losses or less (however, the Sugar is Big 12 vs SEC so SEC will probably have a team in the Sugar Bowl)
The are 4 teams in the Pac-12 right now with 2 losses or less: CU, Utah, Washington and WSU. CU still plays both Utah and WSU, and WSU plays Washington. Two of those 4 teams will probably play in the title game.
Big 12: only has 3 teams with 2 losses or less (WVU, OU and OSU). OU still plays both of those teams.
By the time the dust settles after the games on the first Saturday in December, the pool of teams with 2 losses or less isn't going to be very big.
November 15th, 2016 at 12:42 AM ^
Western still has to win out. Having endured Idiot Lose a Lot (Uzelac) and then Jack "New coaches, new approaches [same result]" Harbaugh as an undergrad, I will believe 13-0 and NY6 only after it actually occurs.
Too many disappointments; too much schnapps smuggled into the game to quash the inevitable disappointment to believe in yet-to-be realized potential.
November 15th, 2016 at 8:04 AM ^
Yes, he struggled at WMU but that's a bit harsh for a guy who has done a ton for my community over the last decade plus.
November 15th, 2016 at 4:34 PM ^
Is he calling out Jack Harbaugh?
Who's-git-it-better-then-us, EUTM Jack Harbaugh?
That could get a man killed around these parts.
November 15th, 2016 at 12:43 AM ^
Of course OSU is the better team, but the circumstances are all in PSU's favor.
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November 15th, 2016 at 12:52 AM ^
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November 15th, 2016 at 1:01 AM ^
on who wins the Pac12
For instance if WSU wins, WSU vs OSU has more cache than say WSU vs PSU, but the Rose might tolerate a USC v PSU game.
Colorado vs Wis, OSU or PSU is six one half dozen of the other, but would the Rose want a Michigan/Colorado rematch?
November 15th, 2016 at 1:04 AM ^
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November 15th, 2016 at 9:16 AM ^
OSU has been better recently but Penn State still has a huge following, travels just as well, and gets plenty of eyeballs.
November 15th, 2016 at 12:45 AM ^
If OSU beats Michigan and Penn State wins out, the Buckeyes only CFP hope is to make it as a second Big Ten team and leave the Pac-12 and Big 12 out. Which again...championships won > not even winning your division. This is a big reason TCU dropped from 3rd to 6th in the final rankings in 2014.
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November 15th, 2016 at 3:21 AM ^
November 15th, 2016 at 10:02 AM ^
B12 needs OSU to lose to get a team in. Pac-12 is looking shaky at best and I bet Washington drops a ton this week.
Case is there to get 2 B10 teams in. I don't see how they could leave OSU out if they beat Michigan, as that would give them like 4 wins over top 15 teams.
November 15th, 2016 at 1:39 AM ^
November 15th, 2016 at 1:16 PM ^
On Sunday I recovered quicker after this loss than any I can remember in recent memory.
I also saw a lot of similarity like you did with the MSU loss to Nebraska last year.
Only time will tell with O'Korn.
I was one of the fans who was not very impressed with Speight for most of the season until his performances against MSU & Maryland
I haven't been on MGoBoard since the loss, so I'm sure others have said it already, but I put the Iowa loss on Speight more than any other player. I think the coaches had their worst game of the year in regards to schemes, play calling, and adjustments, but Speight lost that game with his inaccuracy.
Speight going down may be a blessing in disguise, but that is obviously being extremely optimistic.
November 15th, 2016 at 2:08 AM ^
November 15th, 2016 at 5:28 AM ^
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November 15th, 2016 at 4:37 PM ^
They beat Ohio State.
We'll know in two weeks if that's a difficult feat or not.