Bowl Game Picks/Betting/Watchability by S&P+ Ratings
I frequently use S&P+ ratings from Football Outsiders for betting purposes against Vegas spreads (from Bovada). For the bowl games, an interested application of this data is a "Game Watchability" ranking (as requested by 707Oxford).
To that end, here are the bowl games ranked by Total S&P Margin, essentially showing where the best combination of teams are playing each other. Interestingly enough, Michigan-Florida State comes in just ahead of the OSU-Clemson playoff semifinal at 2nd overall.
| Date | Favorite | Underdog | Vegas Spread | Favorite S&P+ Margin |
Underdog S&P+ Margin |
Total S&P Value |
Total S&P Value Rank |
S&P Spread | S&P - Vegas Spread |
S&P - Vegas Spread (Abs. Val) |
Bet On | Bet Confidence Rank |
| 12/31/16 15:00 | Alabama | Washington | 17 | 31.5 | 21.8 | 53.3 | 1 | 9.7 | -7.3 | 7.3 | Underdog | 5 |
| 12/30/16 20:00 | Michigan | Florida State | 7 | 31.3 | 19.5 | 50.8 | 2 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | Favorite | 10 |
| 12/31/16 19:00 | Ohio State | Clemson | 3 | 27.6 | 22.7 | 50.3 | 3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | Favorite | 20 |
| 01/02/17 17:00 | USC | Penn State | 7 | 20.5 | 17 | 37.5 | 4 | 3.5 | -3.5 | 3.5 | Underdog | 17 |
| 01/02/17 13:00 | Wisconsin | Western Michigan | 7.5 | 15.8 | 7.9 | 23.7 | 5 | 7.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | Favorite | 31 |
| 12/20/16 19:00 | Western Kentucky | Memphis | 4.5 | 16 | 7.3 | 23.3 | 6 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 4.2 | Favorite | 12 |
| 12/29/16 21:00 | Colorado | Oklahoma State | 3 | 13.4 | 9.4 | 22.8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | Favorite | 26 |
| 12/30/16 14:00 | Stanford | North Carolina | 3.5 | 11.3 | 11.1 | 22.4 | 8 | 0.2 | -3.3 | 3.3 | Underdog | 18 |
| 12/28/16 17:30 | Miami-FL | West Virginia | 3 | 16.1 | 5.1 | 21.2 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 8 | Favorite | 3 |
| 01/02/17 13:00 | Florida | Iowa | 2.5 | 7.2 | 11.9 | 19.1 | 10 | -4.7 | -7.2 | 7.2 | Underdog | 6 |
| 12/17/16 15:30 | Houston | San Diego State | 3 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 16.6 | 11 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | Favorite | 29 |
| 12/17/16 17:30 | Toledo | Appalachian State | 1 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 16.5 | 12 | -0.3 | -1.3 | 1.3 | Underdog | 23 |
| 12/27/16 19:00 | Washington State | Minnesota | 7 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 16.1 | 13 | 0.5 | -6.5 | 6.5 | Underdog | 8 |
| 12/28/16 14:00 | Pittsburgh | Northwestern | 5 | 10.5 | 5.4 | 15.9 | 14 | 5.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | Favorite | 34 |
| 12/30/16 15:30 | Tennessee | Nebraska | 3 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 15.3 | 15 | -1.1 | -4.1 | 4.1 | Underdog | 14 |
| 12/27/16 22:15 | Boise State | Baylor | 7.5 | 16 | -1.4 | 14.6 | 16 | 17.4 | 9.9 | 9.9 | Favorite | 1 |
| 12/29/16 17:30 | Virginia Tech | Arkansas | 7 | 10.8 | 3.6 | 14.4 | 17 | 7.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | Favorite | 33 |
| 12/28/16 20:30 | Utah | Indiana | 8 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 12.7 | 18 | 1.9 | -6.1 | 6.1 | Underdog | 9 |
| 12/27/16 15:30 | Temple | Wake Forest | 13 | 12.9 | -1.2 | 11.7 | 19 | 14.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | Favorite | 25 |
| 12/26/16 17:00 | NC State | Vanderbilt | 4 | 9.7 | -1.9 | 7.8 | 20 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | Favorite | 4 |
| 12/21/16 21:00 | BYU | Wyoming | 8.5 | 8.4 | -0.8 | 7.6 | 21 | 9.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 | Favorite | 28 |
| 12/30/16 12:00 | Georgia | TCU | 1 | -0.6 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 22 | -7.7 | -8.7 | 8.7 | Underdog | 2 |
| 12/31/16 11:00 | Georgia Tech | Kentucky | 3.5 | 5.3 | 0.2 | 5.5 | 23 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 | Favorite | 22 |
| 12/22/16 19:00 | Colorado State | Idaho | 13.5 | 10.9 | -7.2 | 3.7 | 24 | 18.1 | 4.6 | 4.6 | Favorite | 11 |
| 12/19/16 14:30 | Tulsa | Central Michigan | 11.5 | 5.8 | -3.9 | 1.9 | 25 | 9.7 | -1.8 | 1.8 | Underdog | 21 |
| 12/29/16 14:00 | South Florida | South Carolina | 10.5 | 7.5 | -6.9 | 0.6 | 26 | 14.4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | Favorite | 15 |
| 12/26/16 11:00 | Mississippi State | Miami-OH | 12.5 | 3 | -2.8 | 0.2 | 27 | 5.8 | -6.7 | 6.7 | Underdog | 7 |
| 12/23/16 20:00 | Troy | Ohio | 3.5 | -0.5 | -4.5 | -5 | 28 | 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | Favorite | 30 |
| 12/23/16 13:00 | Old Dominion | Eastern Michigan | 3.5 | -0.3 | -4.9 | -5.2 | 29 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | Favorite | 24 |
| 12/30/16 17:30 | Air Force | South Alabama | 12.5 | 1.6 | -7.1 | -5.5 | 30 | 8.7 | -3.8 | 3.8 | Underdog | 16 |
| 12/17/16 17:30 | Central Florida | Arkansas State | 6 | -0.8 | -5.9 | -6.7 | 31 | 5.1 | -0.9 | 0.9 | Underdog | 27 |
| 12/26/16 14:30 | Maryland | Boston College | 2 | -5.3 | -5.3 | -10.6 | 32 | 0 | -2 | 2 | Underdog | 19 |
| 12/17/16 14:00 | New Mexico | UTSA | 7 | -1.9 | -9.2 | -11.1 | 33 | 7.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | Favorite | 32 |
| 12/17/16 21:00 | Southern Miss | UL-Lafayette | 3.5 | -3.3 | -10.9 | -14.2 | 34 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 4.1 | Favorite | 13 |
An alternate view that I use for betting purposes (or pick em) compares the S&P Margin between favorite and underdog against the Vegas lines and look for higher discrepancies. The columns to the right will show these differences, and rank the games by confidence according to that margin. This is applicable for betting/picking against the spread of course.
| Date | Favorite | Underdog | Vegas Spread | Favorite S&P+ Margin |
Underdog S&P+ Margin |
Total S&P Value | Total S&P Value Rank | S&P Spread | S&P - Vegas Spread |
S&P - Vegas Spread (Abs. Val) |
Bet On |
Bet Confidence Rank |
| 12/27/16 22:15 | Boise State | Baylor | 7.5 | 16 | -1.4 | 14.6 | 16 | 17.4 | 9.9 | 9.9 | Favorite | 1 |
| 12/30/16 12:00 | Georgia | TCU | 1 | -0.6 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 22 | -7.7 | -8.7 | 8.7 | Underdog | 2 |
| 12/28/16 17:30 | Miami-FL | West Virginia | 3 | 16.1 | 5.1 | 21.2 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 8 | Favorite | 3 |
| 12/26/16 17:00 | NC State | Vanderbilt | 4 | 9.7 | -1.9 | 7.8 | 20 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | Favorite | 4 |
| 12/31/16 15:00 | Alabama | Washington | 17 | 31.5 | 21.8 | 53.3 | 1 | 9.7 | -7.3 | 7.3 | Underdog | 5 |
| 01/02/17 13:00 | Florida | Iowa | 2.5 | 7.2 | 11.9 | 19.1 | 10 | -4.7 | -7.2 | 7.2 | Underdog | 6 |
| 12/26/16 11:00 | Mississippi State | Miami-OH | 12.5 | 3 | -2.8 | 0.2 | 27 | 5.8 | -6.7 | 6.7 | Underdog | 7 |
| 12/27/16 19:00 | Washington State | Minnesota | 7 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 16.1 | 13 | 0.5 | -6.5 | 6.5 | Underdog | 8 |
| 12/28/16 20:30 | Utah | Indiana | 8 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 12.7 | 18 | 1.9 | -6.1 | 6.1 | Underdog | 9 |
| 12/30/16 20:00 | Michigan | Florida State | 7 | 31.3 | 19.5 | 50.8 | 2 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | Favorite | 10 |
| 12/22/16 19:00 | Colorado State | Idaho | 13.5 | 10.9 | -7.2 | 3.7 | 24 | 18.1 | 4.6 | 4.6 | Favorite | 11 |
| 12/20/16 19:00 | Western Kentucky | Memphis | 4.5 | 16 | 7.3 | 23.3 | 6 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 4.2 | Favorite | 12 |
| 12/17/16 21:00 | Southern Miss | UL-Lafayette | 3.5 | -3.3 | -10.9 | -14.2 | 34 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 4.1 | Favorite | 13 |
| 12/30/16 15:30 | Tennessee | Nebraska | 3 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 15.3 | 15 | -1.1 | -4.1 | 4.1 | Underdog | 14 |
| 12/29/16 14:00 | South Florida | South Carolina | 10.5 | 7.5 | -6.9 | 0.6 | 26 | 14.4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | Favorite | 15 |
| 12/30/16 17:30 | Air Force | South Alabama | 12.5 | 1.6 | -7.1 | -5.5 | 30 | 8.7 | -3.8 | 3.8 | Underdog | 16 |
| 01/02/17 17:00 | USC | Penn State | 7 | 20.5 | 17 | 37.5 | 4 | 3.5 | -3.5 | 3.5 | Underdog | 17 |
| 12/30/16 14:00 | Stanford | North Carolina | 3.5 | 11.3 | 11.1 | 22.4 | 8 | 0.2 | -3.3 | 3.3 | Underdog | 18 |
| 12/26/16 14:30 | Maryland | Boston College | 2 | -5.3 | -5.3 | -10.6 | 32 | 0 | -2 | 2 | Underdog | 19 |
| 12/31/16 19:00 | Ohio State | Clemson | 3 | 27.6 | 22.7 | 50.3 | 3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | Favorite | 20 |
| 12/19/16 14:30 | Tulsa | Central Michigan | 11.5 | 5.8 | -3.9 | 1.9 | 25 | 9.7 | -1.8 | 1.8 | Underdog | 21 |
| 12/31/16 11:00 | Georgia Tech | Kentucky | 3.5 | 5.3 | 0.2 | 5.5 | 23 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 | Favorite | 22 |
| 12/17/16 17:30 | Toledo | Appalachian State | 1 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 16.5 | 12 | -0.3 | -1.3 | 1.3 | Underdog | 23 |
| 12/23/16 13:00 | Old Dominion | Eastern Michigan | 3.5 | -0.3 | -4.9 | -5.2 | 29 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | Favorite | 24 |
| 12/27/16 15:30 | Temple | Wake Forest | 13 | 12.9 | -1.2 | 11.7 | 19 | 14.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | Favorite | 25 |
| 12/29/16 21:00 | Colorado | Oklahoma State | 3 | 13.4 | 9.4 | 22.8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | Favorite | 26 |
| 12/17/16 17:30 | Central Florida | Arkansas State | 6 | -0.8 | -5.9 | -6.7 | 31 | 5.1 | -0.9 | 0.9 | Underdog | 27 |
| 12/21/16 21:00 | BYU | Wyoming | 8.5 | 8.4 | -0.8 | 7.6 | 21 | 9.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 | Favorite | 28 |
| 12/17/16 15:30 | Houston | San Diego State | 3 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 16.6 | 11 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | Favorite | 29 |
| 12/23/16 20:00 | Troy | Ohio | 3.5 | -0.5 | -4.5 | -5 | 28 | 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | Favorite | 30 |
| 01/02/17 13:00 | Wisconsin | Western Michigan | 7.5 | 15.8 | 7.9 | 23.7 | 5 | 7.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | Favorite | 31 |
| 12/17/16 14:00 | New Mexico | UTSA | 7 | -1.9 | -9.2 | -11.1 | 33 | 7.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | Favorite | 32 |
| 12/29/16 17:30 | Virginia Tech | Arkansas | 7 | 10.8 | 3.6 | 14.4 | 17 | 7.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | Favorite | 33 |
| 12/28/16 14:00 | Pittsburgh | Northwestern | 5 | 10.5 | 5.4 | 15.9 | 14 | 5.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | Favorite | 34 |
December 8th, 2016 at 12:51 PM ^
Well the formatting is not ideal...any suggestions? Also, is it possible for me to make it sortable so as not to post the table twice?
December 8th, 2016 at 2:28 PM ^
I've learned that you have to just try to fit it in within the white margins, otherwise it will bleed off into the side. I don't know a better way to do this, though, other than 100% manual.
December 9th, 2016 at 12:36 PM ^
The second table is very user friendly for the confidence style bowl pool I'm in - but tell me, am I crazy or blind or is the Sugar OK vs Aub not in there (in fact are any listed by Bowl name? That would help)
December 8th, 2016 at 1:44 PM ^
December 8th, 2016 at 2:37 PM ^
Fantastic! Awesome job and quick too!
There is no prize in my family pool. I'll share it with you if I win.
December 8th, 2016 at 2:38 PM ^
Out of curiosity, what has your success rate been using this strategy in your bets?
December 8th, 2016 at 2:56 PM ^
60% of bets won, with around 20% rate of return. Championship week was really rough and brought those numbers down.
December 8th, 2016 at 3:00 PM ^
Championship week was a lowly 3/9 correct. On the flip side, week 11 was 74% correct with nearly a 50% rate of return.
December 9th, 2016 at 1:17 PM ^
Interesting stuff. Will definitely be coming back to this next weekend when the games get started.
Maybe you could put it on a google excel doc and post the link? Just make it so that nobody else has permission to edit besides yourself.