Bill Connelly Previews Michigan
Bill Connelly over at SB Nation does a offseason preview series where he does a write-up on every single D1 team and today he reached Michigan.
He does a lot of stuff with stats, including work on creating FEI and S&P+ (which Brian references with some frequency), so the preview is focused a lot on Michigan's statistical profile and the range of outcomes that suggests for next year. Nothing groundbreaking here, but it's always an enjoyable offseason read.
Won't that gap be tightened considerably right after the opener against a respectable Utah team though? Win or lose, I'd think we could predict the season record +/-1 after that game.
Where Hoke's teams, with the exception of 2011, didn't seem to show a ton of improvement over the course of a season, I'm expecting the opposite with Harbaugh. I'm thinking the UM team we see on the field in November will be a much better team than the one we see on the field at the beginning of the year.
So if UM loses to Utah, I don't know if that will be an accurate picture of what we should expect from the team for the next 11 games.
I think we could lose to Utah, and maybe even one other non-conference game, but be good enough later to beat one or more of MSU, PSU, and OSU.
I expect the team that plays Ohio State in Novemeber will be vastly better than the team that plays Utah, whether or not we beat the Utes.
I trust Bill C more than just about any other previewer. That he is saying pretty much what we are expecting with the 8 win projection is comforting.
Unless we have dramatic injuries, truly terrible QB play, or can't win close games, I doubt the 6-6 happens. Aside from the injuries, I like our chances with this coaching staff and these players to take care of the last two.
Our kick return efficiency was 118th in the country last year. Can Baxter please find a good returner on the squad?
I predict at least 2 punt and/or kickoffs returned to the house this year plus 2 other 50+ yard returns. Boom, Peppered.
I never thought of Fleet as a world beater. Peppers, yes, I do.
I honestly think Peppers will be known as a greater return man than Breaston. Bold prediction? Yes. But otherwise, what's the point of predicting. :-)
Although most guys would probably get a decent return or two on like ten chances.
Or perhaps a virtual punt-returner.
Oooo ... "Cloud" kick returners! :-)
I like Billy Connolly...
...but I find his Scottish accent a bit hard to understand sometimes.
I knew that Hoke's offense was slow, but....wow. 1.8% percentile in adjusted pace? That's almost impressively sloggish.
It was a more controlled no-huddle, definitely not like the fastbreak offenses the RichRod prefers. It was unique in college football at the time and something I wish LC would have kept going. But man, we were too slow under Hoke.
The longer you sit in your formation and wait to snap the ball, the more time you give the D to read your offense. I'd rather get the offense set up, let your QB read the defense before they can make a ton of adjustments, and snap the ball. Put the pressure on their defense.
"The defense is loaded with experience and could be fantastic."
DId this statement become obsolete with the departures of of JMFR, Countess and F. Clark?
Fair enough, but without Clark who will provide pressure from the edge of our defense? Countess could have been plugged into some nickel situations without puking on himself. I think we'll be ok, but I'm not convinced our ceiling will be higher than a top-30 unit.
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I'm gonna go with...Frank Clark:
13.5 TFL - #2 behind.......JMFR
4.5 Sacks - #2 behind Beyer
42 Tackles - #4 behind JMFR et, al
Am I supposed to be impressed by 4.5 sacks? Or by the fact that he finished second to a kid who barely made an NFL camp, only because that team's old DC coached him in college and asked the Ravens to invite him.
Listen I'm not saying Frank didn't have his moments. He clearly has the athleticism and potential to be a good NFL pass rusher. He just didn't do it. Losing a guy who plays well for 1/6 of the season isn't a big loss at all when his old position group is the strength of our defense.
Can Frank be a good player? yes. Was he a dominant force? not at all.
Am I supposed to be impressed by 4.5 sacks? Or by the fact that he finished second to a kid who barely made an NFL camp, only because that team's old DC coached him in college and asked the Ravens to invite him.
Listen I'm not saying Frank didn't have his moments. He clearly has the athleticism and potential to be a good NFL pass rusher. He just didn't do it. Losing a guy who plays well for 1/6 of the season isn't a big loss at all when his old position group is the strength of our defense.
Can Frank be a good player? yes. Was he a dominant force? not at all.
You're supposed to tell me who is going to give us 4.5 sacks and 13 TFL. Remember, we have all of this experience coming back to a unit that you expect to be top 10.
the hell are you talking about?
Watch for Lawrence Marshall to break out. Don't forget Taco, either.
Were loaded at linebacker and D-line (at least depth-wise). Hard to replace a talent like Clark but I think Taco and Wormly will be much improved if not have mini-breakouts. Maybe even Poggi contributes. Henry and Mone should be beasts. Glasgow and Lawrence Marshall ... I honestly think our line will be better this year. Plus Peppers... I have goods feels for this D despite these losses.
It took Ryan all year last year to adjust to playing in the middle, and he still had his deficiencies.
Clark has always had potential but generally only shows up for 2 games a year (last year he chose Northwestern, which, k great).
I love this year's defense and expect them to be top 10 nationally.
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Peppers > Taylor or Countess
Lyons > Taylor or Countess (scheme-wise)
Marshall/Taco/Wormley > Clark (to be seen but Marshall looked good in spring)
LB cast without Ryan (a wash with little to no drop off)
Plus insert a possible Frosh stepping up in a Durkin'd role like the DE/LB from Fla - I believe Reuben Jones was told he'd fit that role; I'm excited about that kid.
How could we not improve on D? Also - Mattison, who led the D last year is still on staff and we add Durkin, who led Fla to a pretty stout performance on D as well.
It's hard to compare Peppers to Taylor or Countess because you're looking at two kids who sit on receivers to a DB who will have to excel in all phases of the game (zone, man, run support) but his man will come against slot guys. Obviouslly, if it were a draft you would take Peppers first.
But yeah I totally agree with your points. Our losses are far outweighed by our gains and expected progress from returners. if 2015D = 2014D - (Clark, Ryan, Beyer, Countess) + (Morgan, Peppers, Lyons) + progress(Taco, Henry, Mone, Hurst, Glasgow, Bolden, Marshall, Ross, Hill, Wilson, Lewis)...then 2015D > 2014D undoubtedly.
He'd be a bit undersized as a DL but I bet there isn't a position on the field he couldn't play and be competitive at. Peppers is far and away better than both Countess and Taylor in my opinion, and was as a freshman if he could have stayed healthy.
Taking that into account, along with the returning experience/depth, more favorable schedule, and still having Mattison, I don't think it's a reach to expect a top 10 D.
@DrTobaggonetc - You do realize that Ryan led the team in tackles while learning how to play the new position, right?
As he should have. Racking up tackles is not a sign of a great player.
Where/when did I say he was 'great' ??
This discussion feels similar to the MBB preseason talk last year when when many of us were convinced that Zak Irvin was going to be the new 44% 3pt shooter.
These things were all true (maybe not Countess?) when he wrote the preview, no?
I don't think the writer was factoring in the loss of our bigger impact players with experience. If obsolete wasn't the right word to use, I'm definitely open for suggestions. Its not uncommon for national writers to overlook things and it won't stop me from reading at least 2,234 of these previews before the season starts.
And I don't think Countess is the difference between okay and fantastic...Maybe fantastic and more fantastic.
The running theme seems to be "you can only improve so much in one year." I remember when we said that about our defense going from 2010 to 2011, coming off a season in which we were ranked 109th (FEI). Something like, "if Mattison is as good as we think he is he should get us into the top 50, maybe". We finished 16th in DFEI in 2011.
Oh but I guess that makes me a fanboi slappy.
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I don't think I'd want to run into a sloppy.
That was a hell of a turnaround I agree. Also Jerry Montgomery deserves a good bit of credit - that D line was also very experienced with 3 SRs and a JR and was a huge difference between 2010 and 2011 (granted there were only 3 of them in 2010!). Martin, Roh, VanBergen, and Heinager. The emergence of Jake Ryan and Desmond Morgan as freshman was a big help @ LB as the 2010 crew outside Mouton was not inspirational. Hopefully we get some surprises from young guys like that from a Brandon Watson type.
And to be fair we changed schemes completely from something very atypical (3-3-5) to something common from 2010 to 2011. But it was probably Mattison & team's best work.
I am kind of expecting a very similar unit to 2014's production - I see a lack of playmakers at the edges. Seems like a bunch of solid, workmanlike players but I'd like to see more explosiveness. Could be strong down the middle with the DTs and Ss and if Lewis is what I think he is, that's a top WR erased. Question will be the other CB, edge LBs and DEs. I am hoping Ross can find himself or someone like Gedeon just wrests the job away and plays fantastic.
Umm wouldn't you say that's exactly what happened with Hoke? Near-.500 and struggling against MAC teams?
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This guy deserved it. In 2008.