Bill Connelly previews Michigan

Submitted by JimBobTressel on

http://www.sbnation.com/2013/7/24/4540806/michigan-wolverines-football-2013-preview-schedule-roster

 

Like Northwestern, Michigan has a rather favorable schedule as long as the Wolverines meet a certain baseline. Of the four teams projected 21st or better, three come to Ann Arbor, including Notre Dame early and Ohio State late. Only two road opponents are projected better than 40th. If Michigan can improve to around the top-15 level, the Wolverines could win a lot of games. Hell, they could win allof them.

But the projections are lukewarm for a reason. Only about half of last year's starters return. The offensive line is pretty green. The pass rush isn't guaranteed to improve, nor is the secondary. The best defensive player is going to play half the season at best. And perhaps most importantly from a numbers standpoint, Michigan has played at a top-15 level only once in the last six years.

That the Wolverines held steady at 20th overall last year is a positive sign, and I do think that there is some addition-by-subtraction going on in substituting a little explosiveness for a lot of efficiency on offense. They are still a few ifs away from a truly elite season, but I like their chances of getting to 10 wins overall, much more than the numbers do, anyway.

AdamVN1

July 24th, 2013 at 12:07 PM ^

And hopefully trending towards the former, since most of our toughest opponents have to come to Ann Arbor this year!

Mattison will have the defense ready to play, and if the young players on the O-Line can learn quickly I think there is a lot to be optimistic about for this year.

somewittyname

July 24th, 2013 at 12:52 PM ^

Maybe 4 losses isn't that unlikey. For the sake of argument, let's say we have 6 games of 50% win probability (nd, psu, msu, neb, nw, osu), which is quite conservative, but then let's balance that by saying we have 100% win probability in the remaining games. Based on this scenario, we have a 34% chance at 4 or more losses, assuming I can still put my undergrad probability course to good use.

Balrog_of_Morgoth

July 24th, 2013 at 2:18 PM ^

I'm just confirming your numbers. In this scenario, there is a 34.375% chance we lose four or more games. Here are some more probabilities (rounded to make it easier on the eyes):

12-0: 2%

11-1: 9%

10-2: 23%

9-3: 31%

8-4: 23%

7-5: 9%

6-6: 2%

According to Vegas, the six games you mentioned are roughly toss-ups (all of the spreads are within 3 points). However, the other games are obviously not 100% wins, so take these numbers with a grain of salt.

Lionsfan

July 24th, 2013 at 12:17 PM ^

Well A, it's a preview not an analysis of UM. And B, it's not *for* us Michigan fans. It's for fans of other teams to get a quick scope of Michigan, without having to search depth charts/read press conferences/watch spring tape/follow spring news

MichiganMan14

July 24th, 2013 at 12:01 PM ^

I like where Michigan is at right now. They have some seasoned defenders and a few big bodied recievers in their 2nd year that can make some things happen. Michigan has 2 tailbacks coming in that can bring it and if there is one position that kids excell at early...its tailback. Gardner is poised for a banner year and lets not forget about what we have at the TE position. Matchup nightmare for opposing D! Michigan is on track to be a BCS team again if they stay healthy and continue the magical home game run. Let them continue to sleep on Michigan....they will find out soon enough. Go Blue.

The Captain

July 24th, 2013 at 12:18 PM ^

"The pass rush isn't guaranteed to improve, nor is the secondary. "

I definitely think the secondary will be improved from last year.  Just bringing Countess back will be a huge lift, and Raymon will have another year of experience.  Losing Kovacs will be tough but I have confidence in Wilson and Gordon to hold down the safety spots, with Dymonte hopefully factoring in as well.

We're losing some experience and leadership but gaining some major athleticism and talent.

 

 

gwkrlghl

July 24th, 2013 at 5:08 PM ^

Yeah I agree. I think the secondary should be net-better even if Jarrod gives up a few huge plays. I'd think that another year of experience for Thomas & Raymon + Countess - Kovacs + Jarrod is still a net-gain.

However, we will miss Kovacs' uncany ability to be in the right place at all times like we missed David Molk's awesome scoop blocking.

ontarioblue

July 24th, 2013 at 12:20 PM ^

us the opportunity to run the table.  The 2 toughest games are at home (Nebraska and Ohio).  Sparty is down, Penn State is also down.  Northwestern is the only road game that worries me at all.  12-0 or 11-1.

Ty Butterfield

July 24th, 2013 at 3:28 PM ^

My impression is that Dantonio has the Michigan game as priority number 1. He seems to not mind losing other games as long as they beat Michigan. I also think most people are underestimating the loss of Leveon Bell. However, Sparty will be ready for this game and I think it will come right down to the end again. I don't see either team winning in a blow out.

PhillipFulmersPants

July 24th, 2013 at 7:50 PM ^

quality of back they had in Bell, true, but the OL should be much better given all of the injuries and shuffling they had to do last year. May be a wash in the running game--less talent in backfield but better blocking.

Passing game will be considerably better, I expect, becasue they can't possibly drop that many balls again this year, can they?

The D looks like it will be as good as last year, maybe better statistically given the schedule.

Will be interesting to see how well they move the ball against ND in South Bend. If they win that game, they should be 8-0 when Michigan goes to EL.  Michigan possibly undefeated too? Would be cool.

 

 

JimBobTressel

July 24th, 2013 at 12:44 PM ^

9-3 to 10-2 is my guess, being that the Big 10 should be weak yet again this year. Perfect opportunity to get the young kids everywhere some game expereince.

BeatOSU52

July 24th, 2013 at 1:10 PM ^

Sounds about right.  Michigan will be young but incredibly talented.  Many people from the outside view of course will say that great recruiting doesn't always equal great success on the field.  We are biased (at least I am), but those of us following the program closely through either here or other good insider/information sites can see the momentum the coaching staff is building, and are more confident than ever that the elite level of recruiting recently is going to translate to an elite level on the field in no time.  As much as that goof, Sean Baligian from 96.1, likes to say I am, I do not think it's crazy to think Michigan has a chance at going undefeated.  I personally predict 10-2, though.

BraveWolverine730

July 24th, 2013 at 1:15 PM ^

I think that's a really fair assessment and captures the differences between the expecations here and elsewhere. Here I think the expectation is that we can perform at a top 15, maybe even borderline top 10 level so Nebraska/Ohio/ND coming to Ann Arbor looks like an opportunity. Neutral parties are understandably very skeptical about that and see the above trifecta in addition to tough road trips to MSU and NW as being a lot of possible losses. I'll throw my prediction in at 10-2 with a division title. 

Perkis-Size Me

July 24th, 2013 at 1:15 PM ^

Pretty fair assessment. This is going to be a young team, but there will be loads of talent all over the field. Plenty of opportunities for studs like Taco, Green and Dymonte to get some experience under their belts.



9-3 to 10-2, maybe 11-1 if we get a break or 2.

LSAClassOf2000

July 24th, 2013 at 1:31 PM ^

"Where there was once explosiveness in the past, there should now be efficiency. And there is a decent chance that there is a little bit of addition by subtraction, as well." - Connelly, on the offense

At least from the standpoint of how the offense probably will look now, this is a pretty good way to put what I think we're expecting to happen. Devin Gardner was still able to compile decent passing stats against good teams in limited action (i.e., the last five games of the season), and for the transition to Borges' system in its unfettered state, that's an excellent sign, I think. 

In addition, it's interesting too that he brings up something which probably got overlooked some - we had quite a bit of success in the air despite low catch rates. Trading the big plays that Roundtree and Gardner were making at WR for Gardner's arm and the sorts of things Gallon and Dileo are better at doing will help quite a bit for this offense as it is now. 

The entire piece is pretty fair, I think. I would also throw my hat in the 9-3 ring - there are probably six games that I would say we could win with relative ease based on numbers, and on the other side, Massey has us at less than 50% probability against ND (42%) and Northwestern (48% there). Massey also has Penn State and Michigan State as toss-ups essentially, and Michigan very slightly favored against Ohio State (55%) and Nebraska (59%).

Mr. Yost

July 24th, 2013 at 1:50 PM ^

...personally, and understandably...people are underestimating this team.

I think they have two "ifs," @Northwestern and home vs. Ohio.

I also see a Michigan/Ohio rematch. Praying that we win both!

Bocheezu

July 24th, 2013 at 2:07 PM ^

Huh?  Northwestern has to play OSU and Wisconsin, we have to play OSU, and MSU/Nebraska don't have to play either of them.  MSU gets the easiest cross-division schedule possible with the trifecta of Indiana, Purdue, and Illinois.

Doc Brown

July 24th, 2013 at 4:12 PM ^

eff that. We are going 14-0. I am already reserving a Michigan BCS Champs t shirt and a heisman replica for Devin's upcoming Heisman award. 

EGD

July 24th, 2013 at 7:10 PM ^

I'm frankly not entirely sure how good a season 10-2 would really be.  There is only one non-conference opponent that should really have a chance of beating Michigan, so if M defeats ND and still loses two other games, that means we go 6-2 in the league and probably don't make the BTCG.  Even if one of the two losses is to ND, we might not get in at 7-1 depending on who the other loss is against and how the tiebreakers work out.  Seeing as M definitely has the most talent in the Legends Division this season, I think a repeat of 2011 (a 10-2 record but missing the BTCG) would be much less satisfying this time around.

MGoBlue96

July 24th, 2013 at 10:54 PM ^

the secondary. I think a couple games somewhat skewed those numbers, and the lack of consistent pass rush (which he noted) was more of the issue. In most games, the secondary was a solid yet unspectular unit, though I will admit they were aided by not playing very good passing teams for the most part. Losing Kovacs hurts from a leadership standpoint, but if we are being honest his strength was playing the run, he was not a great pass defender. Also getting  Countess back is a huge plus as given what he showed as a freshmen, he was on track to be UM's best cover corner last year. Considering he is healthy enough to start practicing now, it seems like he will definatly be back fully by the time the season starts. Bottom line, when I look at the schedule, I don't see a passing offense that UM shouldn't be capable of handling. 

I do agree about his point about addition by subtraction on the o-line. It seems like alot of analysts are overlooking the fact that the guys Michigan lost on the o-line did not perform very well last year. The interior line play was probally the single biggest issue last year. Everybody talks about losing experience, but what good is experience if it is not performing at a decent level? The younger o-line guys are very talented (at least if we go by their recruiting rankings), and while I do expect some issues with  a lack of experience early in the year I fully expect the o-line to be better by the meat of the schedule. At the very least the two o-line who performed the best last year, are back to anchor the line.

At the end of the day almost every team in the country has question marks going into the season, I don't see why some analysts are so down on Michigan for having a couple of question marks when outside of maybe Alabama everybody has question marks.